short term earthquake prediction?

quaqualita

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Came across this website: http://quake.exit.com/imageindex.htm
which is about short term earthquake prediction.

Dr.Shou from China predicts the location of the epicenter and the magnitude of earthquakes with the form and size of clouds which appear aperantly before a quake. He also says, since an earthquake generally occurs within 49 days of the first appearance of such an "earthquake cloud", the time of the earthquake can be estimated - The longest delay from an eq-cloud is 102 or 104 days, the average delay is 30 days.

I heard about (not very sucessfull) attemps to predict earthquake longterm or shortterm by studying the seismologic activity or geologic measurements of the stress across faults.
But I never heard about "earthquake clouds" before and can't quite believe that an accurate prediction would be possible with that.

However, when you compare his predictions over the last months/years with the data of earthquakes that actually happened, it's getting quite spooky: Most times the predicitons were very close, many of them right on the spot.

So, what do our "weather and beyond" professionals here on the board think about this? Is it worth to visit this site regulary and check for updated predictions?

quaqualita
 

Conchman

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This seems highly questionable to me.

Question is, can he find these clouds BEFORE an earthquake and say, one will occur on this location? How far are the clouds from the earthquake geographically? Has he predicted any with this method or does he wait for one to occur and then go back and look for a cloud like this, at anytime avg. 30 days before quake and somewhere in the area?


quaqualita said:
Came across this website: http://quake.exit.com/imageindex.htm
which is about short term earthquake prediction.

Dr.Shou from China predicts the location of the epicenter and the magnitude of earthquakes with the form and size of clouds which appear aperantly before a quake. He also says, since an earthquake generally occurs within 49 days of the first appearance of such an "earthquake cloud", the time of the earthquake can be estimated - The longest delay from an eq-cloud is 102 or 104 days, the average delay is 30 days.

I heard about (not very sucessfull) attemps to predict earthquake longterm or shortterm by studying the seismologic activity or geologic measurements of the stress across faults.
But I never heard about "earthquake clouds" before and can't quite believe that an accurate prediction would be possible with that.

However, when you compare his predictions over the last months/years with the data of earthquakes that actually happened, it's getting quite spooky: Most times the predicitons were very close, many of them right on the spot.

So, what do our "weather and beyond" professionals here on the board think about this? Is it worth to visit this site regulary and check for updated predictions?

quaqualita
 

quaqualita

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Feb 4, 2002
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Conchman said:
This seems highly questionable to me.

Question is, can he find these clouds BEFORE an earthquake and say, one will occur on this location? How far are the clouds from the earthquake geographically? Has he predicted any with this method or does he wait for one to occur and then go back and look for a cloud like this, at anytime avg. 30 days before quake and somewhere in the area?


yes, he claims he can:

check in the newest update (link to page 17) or older predictions, where he publishes the date of the cloud (date of his prediction), data of his prediction and updates this line when the quake actually happend later:

e.g. the Iran EQ on 1/28 he predicted on 1/4/2004
the Indonesia EQ on 2/5 he predicted on 2/4
or e.g. on Jan 4th he predicted a quake to occur in Mexico Mag >=6.5, location 15~20N, >95W, to happen between Jan 14 and March 4, 2004

spooky, isn't it?

quaqualita
 

XanaduRanch

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Spooky Just Means We Don't Understand How it Works

I haven't had time to check the link yet, been busy here today. But this doesn't seem to me to be as far off base at it might seem at first glance.

These big chunks of rock grinding together beneath the surface can cause strange effects. Many have been documented. Besides just looking for stress and movement scientists have noted changes in the local gravity, magnetic fields, the amount of radon in subsurface water, venting of other gases into the atmosphere, etc.

So while I can't say he's found an answer, it is easily conceivable that the release of a particular type of gas, or in a particular type of way, could lead to the formation of telltale cloud formations. I am not saying it does, but we can certainly postulate amechanism whereby that might occur.

Tom aka XR
 

Conchman

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yeah but why would these gases be released and then the quake happens 30 days later? wouldnt they be released at the time of the quake?

Sounds like to me he just looks for one of these cloud formations and then waits for an earthquake to happen nearby, he does say it can take up to 100 days.

I guess I would have to check out the timing of his predictions, but so many earthquakes happen I'm sure I can find a cloud formation too!



XanaduRanch said:
I haven't had time to check the link yet, been busy here today. But this doesn't seem to me to be as far off base at it might seem at first glance.

These big chunks of rock grinding together beneath the surface can cause strange effects. Many have been documented. Besides just looking for stress and movement scientists have noted changes in the local gravity, magnetic fields, the amount of radon in subsurface water, venting of other gases into the atmosphere, etc.

So while I can't say he's found an answer, it is easily conceivable that the release of a particular type of gas, or in a particular type of way, could lead to the formation of telltale cloud formations. I am not saying it does, but we can certainly postulate amechanism whereby that might occur.

Tom aka XR
 

XanaduRanch

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No.

Conchman said:
yeah but why would these gases be released and then the quake happens 30 days later? wouldnt they be released at the time of the quake? Sounds like to me he just looks for one of these cloud formations and then waits for an earthquake to happen nearby, he does say it can take up to 100 days. I guess I would have to check out the timing of his predictions, but so many earthquakes happen I'm sure I can find a cloud formation too!
I looked carefully at the information and theory behind what he presented. As to the first, it is perfectly reasonable to expect changes to occur, such as the release of a superheated gas, well before the actual earthquake. Minor foreshocks occur all the time and generally are not recognized as foreshocks until the actual event. It is well documented that these minor tremblors along the fault line do indeed cause many chemical and mechanical changes along the fault. The web link that Quaqualita posted has an explanation, as well as additional links to the USGS studies confirming this. One referenced a well known oil field study in Colorado that I had been familiar with previously.

The second idea had occurred to me as well. However, after studying the details of his 'predictions' that does not seem to be the case either. That is, the chances of picking an area and simply waiting for an earthquake to occur in the specified area, with the specified magnitude, and within the specified time window are an order of magnitude less than the results indicate. That is very impressive. And he has created a formula to guage the relative likelihood of a 'guess' vs. the actual prediction.

Finally, I have to agree that in analyzing the cloud formation over Iran, that this is most unusual. The percursor cloud is embedded in a large weather system.White indicates colder clouds. A wide area within the weather system is black, indicating very warm cloud temperatures. As an atmospheric physicist, someone who studies planetray atmospheres, I would be very hard pressed to offer a professional explanation for this absent some sort of geothermal process at work underneath the cloud base itself.

I would add that as he is a chemist he has none-the-less put his finger on something that needs to be understood by all if this is in fact a reliable percursor. That is that the atmosphere, clouds, gases, etc. are constantly in motion. Without sophisticated programs to determine where such a formation originated based on prevailing wind speeds and directions, pressures, etc. at the appropriate elevations in the atmosphere, any predictions made include an extra margin of error. Which makes the predictions made using the limited data at hand all the more impressive and deserving of a more rigorous and thorough investigation.

Tom aka XR
 

Larry

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I was there for the "big one" a few months ago. The Earth shook, the house shook, I ran into the street with my johnson hanging out, I went back to bed, I fell asleep. I am still alive.
Earthquake Smirthquake.

Larry
 

XanaduRanch

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Oh God Larry!

Larry said:
... I ran into the street with my johnson hanging out, I went back to bed, I fell asleep ...
I was just going to bed! Couldn't you have saved that for later? Now there's an image that will live in DR1 infamy right up the CC au natural with nothing hanging out but his shotgun as he eliminates an intuder (by inducing an immediate heart-attack presumeably) and AZB in his Superman-Chiropractor undies.

Uggh! I need another vino.

Avoiding you guys in the street during an earthquake is exactly the reason we need a good working advance warning system!

Tom aka XR
 

quaqualita

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Tom, I knew you were the right person to ask! It's so amazing to learn and understand better what is happening in the nature.

I was very skeptical at first, too, when I came across this site. But the explanations behind his predictions made somehow sense to me, and I was impressed when I compared the data of the older predictions with the quakes in the past.
In so many cases he was absolutely right, predicting correct magnitude, location and time frame days or weeks before the quakes hit.

One of the few predictions he 'guessed' the wrong location was actually our quake on 9/22. He predicted on 9/18 a mag. > 5.5, but more to the south. I remember not too long before the quake we had huricane Isabel passing by north, and a cold ridge in the north as well. Maybe this 'pressed' the EQ cloud farther south than it originated - misleading the Chinese chemist to predict a wrong location?

Anyway, it's sad, that world governments don't invest more money and interest in science like this. Instead they seem to prefer spending billions for silly wars (or filling the pockets of Dominican presidents). So many people could be saved, if promissing predictions like this could be developed into very well working warning systems.

quaqualita
 

XanaduRanch

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quaqualita said:
Tom, I knew you were the right person to ask! I was very skeptical at first, too, when I came across this site. But the explanations behind his predictions made somehow sense to me, and I was impressed when I compared the data of the older predictions with the quakes in the past.
Isaac Asimov, the prolific science fiction author, once related the story of being asked to write an introduction to a book whose main theme was that aliens had colonized Africa eons ago. He rejected the request out of hand, and then thought better of it. In explaining his change of heart, he showed examples of how history is replete with reputable scientists who missed the boat, laughing at Copernicus, Galileo, Sir Isaac Newton, and others. He said in the end, he didn't want to be remembered 100 years from now solely as "the guy who laughed at so-and-so." He wrote the introduction.

I endorse that bit of wisdom thoroughly.

As to governments giving money for projects like this, it needs to be understood that the world of science, and scientific grants and funding is waaaay more political than you'd ever believe. And it always has been. The discoverer of Uranus, William Herschel, could not get funding in the late 1700's to complete the research because too many 'knowledgeable' astronomers were scoffing at him. Only historians and idiots with a point to prove like me even remember their names 250 years later. But most folks have heard of Sir William Herschel.

The same happens today. DiabloRojo, Ol' Joe Stew, or even BirdThatCantFly could get government money to study the effects of the so called 'ozone hole'. But no money is available to the 90% of the scientific community who realize the whole things a sham. It's just not PC to inform the masses that they really don't need all the purple sun block on their noses. It upsets too many applecarts. Not the least of which are being pushed by the 'scientists' who are getting their salaries, offices, secretaries, and vaca ... er field trips all paid for from that same government grant money.

I wish this person well, I think he may have hit on something unsuspected. Remember, this lore about cloud formations and earthquakes goes back several thousand years at least. And it's only been the last 40 years or so that we've had weather satellites to see clouds, and only the last 25 or 30 with global coverage.

Truly, fun stuff!

Tom aka XR
 
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XanaduRanch

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A Dr. Shou Prediction.

Dr. Shou has posted an image of what he terms an 'Earthquake Cloud' here in the Caribbean.


Click on the image to go to the prediction page.

The satellite photo he cites above is from February 29, 2004 at 12:00. Not clear if that's AT, or Coordinated Universal Time. On the image above the arrow points to what he considers to be the cloud formation itself. The faint question mark where he believes it may have originated before atmospheric winds moved it away. His site expects an earthquake equal to 5.0 or greater in the general area of the Mona Passage. Keep in mid he has no equipment to measure these winds and his idea of where such a cloud may have originated is his best guess. Looks to me from the photo like Eastern half of the DR.

Most of his predictions seem to come to fruition within a few weeks, although I'd have to go back and re-read the site info to see what the actual window is. I believe it's in the range of 90 days.

No one should take this post as in any way a reason to panic.

I feel silly even having to add that disclaimer. It's all just a fun little experiment, OK? His theory is an interesting one, and I thought it might be fun to look at a prediction before the event rather than after the fact. 5.0-5.9 is just equal to three or four of the aftershocks that have been felt previously and little or no damage would occur.

So, let's watch, wait, and see what happens!

Tom aka XR Don't anthropomorphize computers. They hate that.

P.S.
Thanks to quaqualita for bringing this to my attention ...
 

jsizemore

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this is weird

Tom my question. From what you read do the clouds always form? Or is there some times quakes without clouds. Are we talking a percentage of predictions or are we talking almost all can be predicted in the future?
I realize this is the begining of his research and more must be done to validate the reasearch.
John
 

XanaduRanch

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jsizemore said:
Tom my question. From what you read do the clouds always form? Or is there some times quakes without clouds. Are we talking a percentage of predictions or are we talking almost all can be predicted in the future? I realize this is the begining of his research and more must be done to validate the reasearch.
My opinion, and it's just that, an opinion, would be that if such a thing as this exists it would be very unlikely to occur uniformly in every instance. Just a single earthquake like ours caused varying sensations of movement depending on the soil types there must also be vast differences in the way any such gases would escape into the atmosphere from one area to another caused by differing rock types and compositions, topology, and then once above ground meteorology. From this one could assume that some earthquakes might generate little or no gas that could form a cloud, while others might do so more visibly or more easily.

There's really no way to tell at the moment. Because there's really only one person here pouring through satellite photos looking for these signature clouds. It is very likely that many may be missed even when they are captured on a satellite photo.

Tom aka XR If we aren't supposed to eat animals, why are they made with meat?
 

Conchman

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Tom, wouldnt such gasses escaping through water (the prediction was Mona Passage) cause large amounts of huge bubbles in the water? Looking at the size of the cloud, we must be talking about hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of tons of gas escaping through the water, surely there must be some kind of chemical/physical reaction when these gases go from water into the atmosphere?????




XanaduRanch said:
My opinion, and it's just that, an opinion, would be that if such a thing as this exists it would be very unlikely to occur uniformly in every instance. Just a single earthquake like ours caused varying sensations of movement depending on the soil types there must also be vast differences in the way any such gases would escape into the atmosphere from one area to another caused by differing rock types and compositions, topology, and then once above ground meteorology. From this one could assume that some earthquakes might generate little or no gas that could form a cloud, while others might do so more visibly or more easily.

There's really no way to tell at the moment. Because there's really only one person here pouring through satellite photos looking for these signature clouds. It is very likely that many may be missed even when they are captured on a satellite photo.

Tom aka XR If we aren't supposed to eat animals, why are they made with meat?
 

XanaduRanch

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Maybe.

Maybe you've just solved the 'Devil's Triangle' mysteries. It wasn't aliens after all. It was just earthquake clouds!

:alien:

Actually, I pointed out that his question mark was near the Mona Passage. So, those were my words, not his. Looking at the cloud pattern, with no other information to go on, I mentioned it would more likely have originated further west over the SE 1/2 of the DR. But it is an interesting question as to whether his opinion is that such clouds are less frequent over water, than over land because any superheated gas discharge would have to cool significantly before escaping the water and into the atmosphere if released from any significant depth.

That's making an ssumption on my part that (again if they really exist) the clouds form solely from a heated discharge. Could be just a chemical reaction causing the heat signature of the cloud. As in a peculiar type of gas is released into the atmosphere and in a chemical reaction with oxygen, nitrogen, argon, or some other trace gas, the cloud is formed. And the amount would not likely have to be millions of tons of gas. What you're seeing is simply water vapor being precipitated out of the atmosphere. Not a huge chemical cloud. Now what caused this interesting cloud to form is the real question.

Tom aka XR I saw a subliminal advertising executive. But only for a second.
 
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jsizemore

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clouds

I am far from an expert but the gases themselves would not need to be that much to cause big clouds. They would need to be just enough to cause a reaction with existing substances in the air already. I remember reading about an alge in the ocean that produces an acid that becomes a gas and causes water vapor to become a cloud. So it may just need to be a very minute amount of vaporized "what ever it is" that only reacts at certain altitudes and with certain gases present. Maybe it is not the clouds that is what needs to be found but rather the original gas. Then maybe something could be predicted almost all of the time regardless of cloud formation. Of course I am no expert or even claimed to be informed enough to be able to contribute to this thread but it is facinating and I am trying to ask the right questions to understand it better.
John
P.S. Unrelated note the more CO2 in the Air the more clouds are formed. The more clouds are formed the more rain over land. More rain over land more plants growing reducing CO2 levels. Reduced CO2 gives us reduced alge growth which of course means less clouds which puts us back to less plant growth and I guess you see where this is going.
Kind of neat huh.
 
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Conchman

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I was looking on his web site to see where he finds a EQ cloud BEFORE the earthquake, because its not clear whether he just finds the clouds on satellite pictures and goes back to find an earthquake happening near by.

Now, I haven't read much of his web site but there is one instant where he sent a message to the National Geologic Insititute (sp?) warning them of an earthquake happening due to a cloud he discovered. It was somewhere in California. He showed evidence of his prediction via a signed and dated note by a member of the Institute. A quake of magnitude 4 point something then did happen but I was left wondering...geeee...there are probably tens if not 100's of earthquakes over 4.0 in California in any given year. This amounts to nothing unless the area in question is very small, basically, if he pin -pointed the earthquake but it was not clear from the web site if this was the case or if he just pointed out a general part of California.

Nonetheless, his theory is interesting and worth checking out further.
 

XanaduRanch

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That Was Discussed Previously ...

Conchman said:
I was looking on his web site to see where he finds a EQ cloud BEFORE the earthquake, because its not clear whether he just finds the clouds on satellite pictures and goes back to find an earthquake happening near by. Now, I haven't read much of his web site but there is one instant where he sent a message to the National Geologic Insititute (sp?) warning them of an earthquake happening due to a cloud he discovered. It was somewhere in California. He showed evidence of his prediction via a signed and dated note by a member of the Institute. A quake of magnitude 4 point something then did happen but I was left wondering...geeee...there are probably tens if not 100's of earthquakes over 4.0 in California in any given year. This amounts to nothing unless the area in question is very small, basically, if he pin -pointed the earthquake but it was not clear from the web site if this was the case or if he just pointed out a general part of California.

He was very specific on his website as to the details in the case of that predicition.

XR said:
... after studying the details of his 'predictions' that does not seem to be the case either. That is, the chances of picking an area and simply waiting for an earthquake to occur in the specified area, with the specified magnitude, and within the specified time window are an order of magnitude less than the results indicate. That is very impressive. And he has created a formula to guage the relative likelihood of a 'guess' vs. the actual prediction.

All of the predictions have the pattern posted beforehand. It'd be of course a good idea after an earthquake to pour back through the photos to see what could be seen. Geologists do that now with many different parameters to help refine their models and seek important percursors. As long as those aren't labeled retroactively as 'predictions' that's good scientific method.

Tom aka XR How come irons have a setting for permanent press?

P.S.
Dr. Shou has shared some additional images from the Caribbean from the end of February and early March. He also sent along some explanations especially for us here on DR1. I will post and share those as soon as I format the images, and have a chance to review them a bit.
 

quaqualita

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Conchman said:
I was looking on his web site to see where he finds a EQ cloud BEFORE the earthquake, because its not clear whether he just finds the clouds on satellite pictures and goes back to find an earthquake happening near by.

Conchman, since the lack of founding, more/better high tech equipment / more employees, he simply can't find EVERY cloud of EVERY quake which will happen in the near future. But there are many clouds he finds BEFORE the earthquake and posts his predictions before the quakes happen.
Just compare the prediction and the reports of the Bam Iranian quake on his site:
http://quake.exit.com/A031230.html
and the news report of the Iranian Daily Newspaper
http://quake.exit.com/copies/Bam News in English.pdf
http://quake.exit.com/copies/Bam News in persian.pdf
He also wrote a few days ago a new report on the Iranian situation (http://quake.exit.com/A040305.html) about the M7 cloud he discovered there. The 6.5 Bam quake killed more than 40,000 people, just imagine what a M7 and another M6 in the near future would do harm there. All he can do is to warn the people with his predictions and hope they will be safe.

It's indeed very interesting and I think a very promising theory which might one day be able to save the life of many.

quaqualita