Yes,finally we got some rain! I'm glad because I didn't have to water my garden.Making myself a hot cup of coffee too!
- Thread starter MikeFisher
- Start date
Stormy Season 2012
Yes,finally we got some rain! I'm glad because I didn't have to water my garden.Making myself a hot cup of coffee too!
we are this evening on the East also again a bit Breezy,
no Rain so far in Cabeza de Toro during the whole day, but I don't know if all Punta cana stayed dry, as I left the lil Town only once, for a couple hours in the early afternoon, driving thru Veron and to the Cap Cana Marina, no rain or such on that way.
Stormwise the Atlantic looks quiet so far,
the Western Caribbean Sea and specially the Gulf of Mexico would be more likely the Locations for something Brewing up,
but nothing to watch at this Time.
for over here I await the week to pass by with nothing special to see/feel/watch.
Mike
no Rain so far in Cabeza de Toro during the whole day, but I don't know if all Punta cana stayed dry, as I left the lil Town only once, for a couple hours in the early afternoon, driving thru Veron and to the Cap Cana Marina, no rain or such on that way.
Stormwise the Atlantic looks quiet so far,
the Western Caribbean Sea and specially the Gulf of Mexico would be more likely the Locations for something Brewing up,
but nothing to watch at this Time.
for over here I await the week to pass by with nothing special to see/feel/watch.
Mike
during yesterday, last night and still today we have some "rough weather" moving East-West thru the Northern Caribbean Sea, I guess our Southshores will feel that.
due it's NE'ern Tail Puerto Rico has it's share of clouds and Water, so I expect that we will stay here on the Eastshores on the mixed bag of cloudies and Sun with some Areas getting their fresh shower later Today.
nothing bad out there from the Eastern Skies.
Mike
due it's NE'ern Tail Puerto Rico has it's share of clouds and Water, so I expect that we will stay here on the Eastshores on the mixed bag of cloudies and Sun with some Areas getting their fresh shower later Today.
nothing bad out there from the Eastern Skies.
Mike
we had also some showers here on the East last Eve and last Night, felt fresh and good, the water been welcome.
today's afternoon is again a mix of clouds and sun, with some more water to approach later on out of the East/southeast moving to northwest cross Island. looks like tonight will also be the last night with such approach, not much to spot behind it.
Mike
today's afternoon is again a mix of clouds and sun, with some more water to approach later on out of the East/southeast moving to northwest cross Island. looks like tonight will also be the last night with such approach, not much to spot behind it.
Mike
Rain started soft and windfree a few minutes ago in Cabeza de Toro, that windfree and soft can of course change any moment, we will most likely sleep breathing Fresh Air tonight.
happy weekend
Mike
happy weekend
Mike
we finally had several short showers last eve/night, nothing Big or such.
today I spent the whole morning from early til around 12:30PM at Cap Cana, been perfectly sunny, Ocean on average Level, no Rain so far today where I came thru.
Mike
today I spent the whole morning from early til around 12:30PM at Cap Cana, been perfectly sunny, Ocean on average Level, no Rain so far today where I came thru.
Mike
the concentration of severe weather over the SE'ern Caribbean Sea moved NW'wards, now located in the Central Caribbean Sea right south of the Mona Passage, maybe that will bring some Rain, but such will for most be meant for the Southshores, not for PoP.
a Low Pressure System East of Bermuda has no real chance to develop, and even if it would there would not be a thrreat for any Landmass/Island, so no Water for DV's Garden from up there neither.
as for our Highway, the Stormy Speedway between the Cape Verde Islands off the Westafrican Coast and the Antilles/Caribbean Islands, the Runway starts to move, absolutely usual for this time of the year, as we are almost in August.
there are a few til now weaker Tropical Waves on their Way to hit Atlantic Waters from there/from that far East, so by this coming weekend ahead we should see the first Waves over Water on the Maps.
the Models have til now nothing bad on their Long Range Outlook, but such can of course change any Moment.
My Guess:
an other quiet week from now, then we will start to get da Dots on the Maps on the far East.
Mike
a Low Pressure System East of Bermuda has no real chance to develop, and even if it would there would not be a thrreat for any Landmass/Island, so no Water for DV's Garden from up there neither.
as for our Highway, the Stormy Speedway between the Cape Verde Islands off the Westafrican Coast and the Antilles/Caribbean Islands, the Runway starts to move, absolutely usual for this time of the year, as we are almost in August.
there are a few til now weaker Tropical Waves on their Way to hit Atlantic Waters from there/from that far East, so by this coming weekend ahead we should see the first Waves over Water on the Maps.
the Models have til now nothing bad on their Long Range Outlook, but such can of course change any Moment.
My Guess:
an other quiet week from now, then we will start to get da Dots on the Maps on the far East.
Mike
oh oh, we're getting some yellow warning lights from Africa...
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Historically, the month to be concerned about a storm is September. With the exception of David that in 1979 hit on 31 August and Katie on 16 October 1955, all the hurricanes have been in September.
Past recorded hurricanes that have hit the DR and with main affected area have been:
Jeanne. (Category 1). 17 September 2004. East coast, Samana on the Northeast and North Coast (as tropical storm).
Georges. (Category 3). 22 September 1998. La Romana to Santo Domingo on the southern coast.
Hortense. (Category 3). 10 September 1996. East coast from Punta Cana to Samana. 130 kph.
Gilbert. (Category 3). 11 September 1988. Barahona on the southwestern coast, with winds of 200 kph.
Emely. (Category 4). 22 September 1987. Bani on the southwestern coast, winds of 220 kph.
David. (Category 4-5). 31 August 1979. Santo Domingo on the southcentral coast to the southwest.
Beulah. (Category 4). 10-11 September 1967. Barahona on the western coast with winds of 225 kms per hour.
Ines. (Category 4). 29 September 1966. Barahona on the western coast, winds of 240 kph.
Edith. (Category 2). 26-27 September 1963. La Romana on the southeastern coast, winds of 160 kph.
Katie. (Category 1). 16 October 1955. Barahona on the western coast, winds of 125 kph.
San Zenon. (Category 4-5). 3 September 1930. Santo Domingo on the southcentral coast.
You can read more background on the big storms in the Dominican Republic at:
DR1 - Hurricanes
Past recorded hurricanes that have hit the DR and with main affected area have been:
Jeanne. (Category 1). 17 September 2004. East coast, Samana on the Northeast and North Coast (as tropical storm).
Georges. (Category 3). 22 September 1998. La Romana to Santo Domingo on the southern coast.
Hortense. (Category 3). 10 September 1996. East coast from Punta Cana to Samana. 130 kph.
Gilbert. (Category 3). 11 September 1988. Barahona on the southwestern coast, with winds of 200 kph.
Emely. (Category 4). 22 September 1987. Bani on the southwestern coast, winds of 220 kph.
David. (Category 4-5). 31 August 1979. Santo Domingo on the southcentral coast to the southwest.
Beulah. (Category 4). 10-11 September 1967. Barahona on the western coast with winds of 225 kms per hour.
Ines. (Category 4). 29 September 1966. Barahona on the western coast, winds of 240 kph.
Edith. (Category 2). 26-27 September 1963. La Romana on the southeastern coast, winds of 160 kph.
Katie. (Category 1). 16 October 1955. Barahona on the western coast, winds of 125 kph.
San Zenon. (Category 4-5). 3 September 1930. Santo Domingo on the southcentral coast.
You can read more background on the big storms in the Dominican Republic at:
DR1 - Hurricanes
Yeeehaaaa!
the first Tropical Wave on da Highway!!!
on my way to Higuey today I had the intention to leave my Computer at a Compra Venta and spend my friends some Greenies with da Bucks, but NOOO, afetr lunch at a Friends house I checked da weather and WUUUPS, here we go, someone else has to pay for the drinks we already ordered, lol.
Invest 99L is located on half way of the Highway between the Cape Verdes and the Antilles.
as a Tropical Wave it is a very weak system, but the Interaction with surrounding areas trying to get a Spin is surpising wide ranged, so there may be a possibility, MAYBE!
right now still located far below the 10th"North(that or more northern is needed so a brewing storm gets to start it's Spin) and with very weak/little Thunderstorm activity present, zero Surface Circulation, it will need some more days to show Face on it's Westward Hoo Tracking.
Conditions mid highway are actually quiet very favorable for a Storm to brew, Hot Surface Temps, very low(far below 10mphr) Windshear(and expected to stay low for the next 5 days on that Tracking), the in huge amount on the Highway present SAL(Saharn Dry Air/hindering-bothering development) is located far North at this point.
BUT!!!
the system needs some days and climb above the 10th"North, then we will see how far of a area will Spin with the Babe, if any.
what it will bring to the Antilles, as it already shows the "Moisture collecting behavior", is Rain, but now we are talking a week ahead of Time.
let's keep an eye on it and for the ones interested in the actual Now weather changes, we have quiet some Moisture moving westward HOOO over the Virgin Islands and PR, take a look on that as it will tell the weather for the next couple days here on the DR Eastshores.
Invest 99L may really have a chance to become a Tropical Depression around mid week/thursday, but then it will still have to walk several days before reaching the Islands, so the next days we will take a look and see what's coming up or not.
I hope everyone enjoyed a great Dominican Father's Day
Mike
the first Tropical Wave on da Highway!!!
on my way to Higuey today I had the intention to leave my Computer at a Compra Venta and spend my friends some Greenies with da Bucks, but NOOO, afetr lunch at a Friends house I checked da weather and WUUUPS, here we go, someone else has to pay for the drinks we already ordered, lol.
Invest 99L is located on half way of the Highway between the Cape Verdes and the Antilles.
as a Tropical Wave it is a very weak system, but the Interaction with surrounding areas trying to get a Spin is surpising wide ranged, so there may be a possibility, MAYBE!
right now still located far below the 10th"North(that or more northern is needed so a brewing storm gets to start it's Spin) and with very weak/little Thunderstorm activity present, zero Surface Circulation, it will need some more days to show Face on it's Westward Hoo Tracking.
Conditions mid highway are actually quiet very favorable for a Storm to brew, Hot Surface Temps, very low(far below 10mphr) Windshear(and expected to stay low for the next 5 days on that Tracking), the in huge amount on the Highway present SAL(Saharn Dry Air/hindering-bothering development) is located far North at this point.
BUT!!!
the system needs some days and climb above the 10th"North, then we will see how far of a area will Spin with the Babe, if any.
what it will bring to the Antilles, as it already shows the "Moisture collecting behavior", is Rain, but now we are talking a week ahead of Time.
let's keep an eye on it and for the ones interested in the actual Now weather changes, we have quiet some Moisture moving westward HOOO over the Virgin Islands and PR, take a look on that as it will tell the weather for the next couple days here on the DR Eastshores.
Invest 99L may really have a chance to become a Tropical Depression around mid week/thursday, but then it will still have to walk several days before reaching the Islands, so the next days we will take a look and see what's coming up or not.
I hope everyone enjoyed a great Dominican Father's Day
Mike
just to add,
as for the Birthplace given,
this one would be a straight Westrunner over the mid Antilles into the Caribbean Sea,
very low chances for a Northwesterner taking the Virgins/PR/DR-Eastshore etc,
but time will tell before the next coming weekend
Mike
as for the Birthplace given,
this one would be a straight Westrunner over the mid Antilles into the Caribbean Sea,
very low chances for a Northwesterner taking the Virgins/PR/DR-Eastshore etc,
but time will tell before the next coming weekend
Mike
one thing I have learnt over the last few years is that it doesnt matter what a storm can do or where it can go or historically it can do this or that.........
what matters is what it ACTUALLY does do...
Any storm can do anything and go anywhere (within reason) However until it is within three days of here, it is not on my radar.
IMO, the north coast is not any safer than the south coast, and vice versa. Storms dont follow historical paths, they create them.
what matters is what it ACTUALLY does do...
Any storm can do anything and go anywhere (within reason) However until it is within three days of here, it is not on my radar.
IMO, the north coast is not any safer than the south coast, and vice versa. Storms dont follow historical paths, they create them.
of course nothing new on 99L today, that's too early to see any changes.
it is close to the 10th"N now and will reach.cross it during today, from then on the next 24hrs will show if nthere will start a Surface Spin or not, by actual surrounding conditions I say Yes there will be a surface spin within no more than 12hrs after crossing the 10th"N. it is far away and til now nothing, let's give it a couple more days to come closer to the Antilles.
the bad weather I mentioned yesterdayn is today all over PR and reached the DR, on the Eastshores we are cloudy today, wind is for most very low but once in a while shows some nasty Gusts locally. the bad weather front will finall effect most of the Country while walking over, heaviest portions are on our South where most rain is expected to come down and where strong winds may be involved. it is a 48hrs occurance, Fresh Air, Less Humidity, for some no need to Water the Gardens, nothing else.
Mike
it is close to the 10th"N now and will reach.cross it during today, from then on the next 24hrs will show if nthere will start a Surface Spin or not, by actual surrounding conditions I say Yes there will be a surface spin within no more than 12hrs after crossing the 10th"N. it is far away and til now nothing, let's give it a couple more days to come closer to the Antilles.
the bad weather I mentioned yesterdayn is today all over PR and reached the DR, on the Eastshores we are cloudy today, wind is for most very low but once in a while shows some nasty Gusts locally. the bad weather front will finall effect most of the Country while walking over, heaviest portions are on our South where most rain is expected to come down and where strong winds may be involved. it is a 48hrs occurance, Fresh Air, Less Humidity, for some no need to Water the Gardens, nothing else.
Mike
Rain has started on the North Coast from this tropical wave and there was about 0.8 inches overnight and early this morning. Not much wind though. Looks like Mike is right that we will get a couple of days of this weather but the reports from the other Lesser Antilies indicate heavy rains coming. St.Maarten/St.Martin - Local Reports (Caribbean Hurricane Network)
Antigua - Local Reports (Caribbean Hurricane Network)
Olly and the Team
Antigua - Local Reports (Caribbean Hurricane Network)
Olly and the Team
chucking it down now in sosua /cabarete lots of lightning......for about 20 minutes so far......
edit yikes that was close..........
edit yikes that was close..........
yes Ollie,
over the northern antilles rainfalls are quiet hefty.
the weather we have actually near/over us is a weak Tropical Wave, it does not even have a Invest Number from NOAA and I do not give it any chance to develop into any Storm, but it is a Tropical Wave with a Rainload and some strong Winds in some small Portions.
it's mainforce and very most of the Rainload is located south of PR, South of the Mona Passage and South of the DR's Southshores, tracking mostly and slowly Westward, so the most possible outlook by my opinion is an other couple days of many clouds and some short isolated Rains on the East and NE and North, more Rains and maybe even some stronger winds for the SE and Southcentral, for the SW of the Country I would expect heavy rains and strong winds, I guess the Bomberros in the Capital City are on Alert since this afternoon at least for a 'maybe' waterload.
as for Invest 99L, right in the middle of the Highway/between Africa and the Lesser Antilles,
that one starts to get interesting and a object to be watched.
it is very close to the 10th"N and the same Time way South of bothering Dry saharn Air.
the Forecast on it's western track for the next days(keep in mind that we are talking here about the Longrange Forecast of maybe upcoming/changing Conditions of a 1000 miles long Track of conditions which still do not exist at this moment, so there are possibilities to change such conditions at any moment from now on) stays very favorable for a Storm to develop with hot Sea Surface Temps, very low Windshear and Dry Air out of bothering Range.
but by my own observation of the Tracking and the "predicted" conditions I see only a very tiny Path on which a Tropical Depression by late Thursday/early Friday and then a Tropical Storm by Sat/Sund could Form and then intensify in a dangerous Speed, and that Tiny Path is the following:
to get enough Spin to start a Storm in the first place, with the needed Surface Circulation, it has to pass North of the 10th"N, around the 12th"N a Storm would actually be in Stormies Paradise for a quick grow up by actual conditions,
but the Path is named by myself very TINY because coming close to or reaching the 15th" the Influence of the Dry saharn Air would start to suck da Bugger and the same Time/Location the actually very low windshear would increase by several Times in a medium-high range Level, both together would hinder a quick intensification, maybe would hinder a build up of a Storm completely.
independend of development with til now zero Surface Circulation, the System already shows that it spins a Very Large Area up in the Atmosphere, means it collects Moisture over a very wide Area, so independend of development it will carry/move a lot of moisture towards the islands and heavy Rains can be expected for the Antilles starting next weekend/early next week.
during the next days we need to watch the position/Track to see if it moves more NW wards where it would stay weak or would not even develop, or if it runs between 10th-14th"N and may get a chance to become a significant Boy.
the actual weak Tropical Wave south of Us and the approach of 99L counted together do promise that we will most likely not encounter much humidity nor overly hefty sunburns here in Punta Cana for most of the next 10 days, but there should be a "Pause" after the weak wave left before the influence of 99L sets in to push us back to the cloudies again.
Mike
over the northern antilles rainfalls are quiet hefty.
the weather we have actually near/over us is a weak Tropical Wave, it does not even have a Invest Number from NOAA and I do not give it any chance to develop into any Storm, but it is a Tropical Wave with a Rainload and some strong Winds in some small Portions.
it's mainforce and very most of the Rainload is located south of PR, South of the Mona Passage and South of the DR's Southshores, tracking mostly and slowly Westward, so the most possible outlook by my opinion is an other couple days of many clouds and some short isolated Rains on the East and NE and North, more Rains and maybe even some stronger winds for the SE and Southcentral, for the SW of the Country I would expect heavy rains and strong winds, I guess the Bomberros in the Capital City are on Alert since this afternoon at least for a 'maybe' waterload.
as for Invest 99L, right in the middle of the Highway/between Africa and the Lesser Antilles,
that one starts to get interesting and a object to be watched.
it is very close to the 10th"N and the same Time way South of bothering Dry saharn Air.
the Forecast on it's western track for the next days(keep in mind that we are talking here about the Longrange Forecast of maybe upcoming/changing Conditions of a 1000 miles long Track of conditions which still do not exist at this moment, so there are possibilities to change such conditions at any moment from now on) stays very favorable for a Storm to develop with hot Sea Surface Temps, very low Windshear and Dry Air out of bothering Range.
but by my own observation of the Tracking and the "predicted" conditions I see only a very tiny Path on which a Tropical Depression by late Thursday/early Friday and then a Tropical Storm by Sat/Sund could Form and then intensify in a dangerous Speed, and that Tiny Path is the following:
to get enough Spin to start a Storm in the first place, with the needed Surface Circulation, it has to pass North of the 10th"N, around the 12th"N a Storm would actually be in Stormies Paradise for a quick grow up by actual conditions,
but the Path is named by myself very TINY because coming close to or reaching the 15th" the Influence of the Dry saharn Air would start to suck da Bugger and the same Time/Location the actually very low windshear would increase by several Times in a medium-high range Level, both together would hinder a quick intensification, maybe would hinder a build up of a Storm completely.
independend of development with til now zero Surface Circulation, the System already shows that it spins a Very Large Area up in the Atmosphere, means it collects Moisture over a very wide Area, so independend of development it will carry/move a lot of moisture towards the islands and heavy Rains can be expected for the Antilles starting next weekend/early next week.
during the next days we need to watch the position/Track to see if it moves more NW wards where it would stay weak or would not even develop, or if it runs between 10th-14th"N and may get a chance to become a significant Boy.
the actual weak Tropical Wave south of Us and the approach of 99L counted together do promise that we will most likely not encounter much humidity nor overly hefty sunburns here in Punta Cana for most of the next 10 days, but there should be a "Pause" after the weak wave left before the influence of 99L sets in to push us back to the cloudies again.
Mike