- Thread starter samanasuenos
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The DR and the Recession of 2008
Luis Noboa, with shareholders = Lama, Ochoa, etc...
All Santiagueros... (so poor, they only have money... LOL).
BTW: Most notable families of Santiago (the poor ones that only have, you guess it!) did come hard against the proposed light rail in Santiago...
They think, me included, that Santiago must be kept as it's until we're able to safeguard most of our cultural patrimony and architecture.
If the rail was placed as proposed, many disturbing changes will occur to the City's view, one that we all cherish just as it is now...
So far, the muscle has worked, and the local authorities have backed down; still, much needs to be addressed before even the only accepted option, of an underground rail system, is backed by all the private finances that such families carry in Santiago...
We Santiageros love our small city just as it's; it has been proposed and pursued that, the City center be banned of any edification contrary to the already existent colonial architecture. The plans call for the vertical growth of the City to be most desirable in the limits of the old downtown and outer areas...
One of our strongest allies is the J. Armando Bermudez firm and family. Along with Ochoa and others...
It was because of this why the proposed light rail at street level was shut down 100%...
Let's keep Santiago as it is, and bring back the charm of La Ciudad Corazon!
They think, me included, that Santiago must be kept as it's until we're able to safeguard most of our cultural patrimony and architecture.
If the rail was placed as proposed, many disturbing changes will occur to the City's view, one that we all cherish just as it is now...
So far, the muscle has worked, and the local authorities have backed down; still, much needs to be addressed before even the only accepted option, of an underground rail system, is backed by all the private finances that such families carry in Santiago...
We Santiageros love our small city just as it's; it has been proposed and pursued that, the City center be banned of any edification contrary to the already existent colonial architecture. The plans call for the vertical growth of the City to be most desirable in the limits of the old downtown and outer areas...
One of our strongest allies is the J. Armando Bermudez firm and family. Along with Ochoa and others...
It was because of this why the proposed light rail at street level was shut down 100%...
Let's keep Santiago as it is, and bring back the charm of La Ciudad Corazon!
Actually they're counting on the recession to bring the savings pigs of many people there, they can buy a house or apt for cheap. Considering the price of a comparative site in the US would amount to, the offered ones look like a steal...
The big question mark here is that being this the NORTH COAST we're talking about, how long can they keep the artificial value up, so other developers take heed and start doing the same a la Cana...
The North Coast has a shaky history. Time after time, many have invested big only to come up empty handed for their work. Don't get me wrong, property never makes a loss in the DR, but your aim is to make it big as in Cana or de Campo...
I had some trouble getting rid of a condo in Miami, it took more than expected to unload and the return given the market dive was still respectful; yet for all this, I think I'll keep my future Bienes Raices ventures within the DR's limits for now...
I took a liking to the Samana future development and still am intrigued by the possibilities there...
The big question mark here is that being this the NORTH COAST we're talking about, how long can they keep the artificial value up, so other developers take heed and start doing the same a la Cana...
The North Coast has a shaky history. Time after time, many have invested big only to come up empty handed for their work. Don't get me wrong, property never makes a loss in the DR, but your aim is to make it big as in Cana or de Campo...
I had some trouble getting rid of a condo in Miami, it took more than expected to unload and the return given the market dive was still respectful; yet for all this, I think I'll keep my future Bienes Raices ventures within the DR's limits for now...
I took a liking to the Samana future development and still am intrigued by the possibilities there...
Perhaps I'd misunderstood, but I thought the light railway project was originally proposed and to be funded privately by some of these same 'notable' families of Santiago that built the Santiago airport (Bermudez, Rosario, Garcia, Clase, etc...)?
This thread has gotten off "track" but I must answer the above.
According to the following article the tramway for Santiago is still on track. There are studies being made that should be ready in the first months of this year. Much complaint for the tram is coming from the transportation syndicalist like Domingo Mat?as and others. As far as the "elite" families that PICHARDO likes to constantly talk about, the article mentions nothing, nada about them. If PICHARDO keeps this up those elite families that according to him prefer to be anonymous and discrete will probably put a contract out on him.....for he keeps exposing them.......
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Voces a favor y en contra del tranv?a en Santiago
sorry dude but there isn't a recession Yet.We can all see the Recession of 2008 hitting in the USA - no debate necessary!
So, ...
my 3 questions are:
1. Whether recession in the USA automatically spells disaster for the DR. Or could there be some benefits?
2. Either way, what effects might we start seeing?
3. And...Has anyone seen effects so far?
I am just wondering. It may not be ALL bad in the DR. For example, if folks can't afford a house in the USA and lose it - maybe they'll look for one abroad. And I suppose a recession in Canada would reak more havoc down south!
'Just throwing it out there for thoughtful debate.
Thank you,
Sammy - concerned for the country of my Suenos (DR)
Not as intended by the current authorities, as in a tramway service...
The idea was to use the same system as the SD Metro, but with a lighter version of the infrastructure there...
Also it was in the plans, to bury below ground all electrical and related cables dangling now everywhere you look up or as in most cases, down...
This train is not going anywhere anytime soon...
It's the consensus that the current political fervor is making the authorities to try and use the train project there as leverage of sorts for campaigning, hence their push for a tramway that can be deployed very fast VS a real train system...
This thread has gotten off "track" but I must answer the above.
According to the following article the tramway for Santiago is still on track. There are studies being made that should be ready in the first months of this year. Much complaint for the tram is coming from the transportation syndicalist like Domingo Mat?as and others. As far as the "elite" families that PICHARDO likes to constantly talk about, the article mentions nothing, nada about them. If PICHARDO keeps this up those elite families that according to him prefer to be anonymous and discrete will probably put a contract out on him.....for he keeps exposing them.......
.
Voces a favor y en contra del tranv?a en Santiago
You never hurt family...LOL!!!
Ahhhh! Not! Sorry duda! Two cycles of negative growth is a recession...
What you don't want to blow up is inflation to make the case worst...
The present offer by Bush to congress is the work of the most incompetent President ever to sit at the Oval Office!!! Tax breaks?!?!?!
What the economy needs is a serious interest rate cut by cycles and to bail out the hardest hit mortgage banks by allowing the FED to move the highest risk loans to a HUD program, where the interest rate is lowered as much as possible to allow families with poor income to make "real" payments at sane interest rates...
This way, we can afford to disburse some 100 to 150 Billion Dollars that would be just like a loan to the country for 30 to 40 years max. Not to add to the national debt and increase inflation as the tax cut incentive proposes.
The housing market was the first Domino to fall in the line of fire, and it should be the first one to be erected for our economy to get back or at least move to positive growth within the next two cycles.
The hardest hit sectors of the economy were the lower income rack, and any tax cut incentive would fall short of making any improvement there.
Sadly but truth, our economy depends much on the little people than the big pockets. So far the FED has only used the airwaves to shoo the politicians into the bag, but I see no real plan from anybody there to use rate cuts in steps to control the surging inflation as well...
If you have money in the bank, better buy some gold and soon!!!!
I'm not sure this is totally correct. The Fed meets constantly to adjust rates both up and down. Like all economic data, theirs is retrospective, but they DO get more and better data, quicker, than about any other body of analysts.
The U.S. economy is highly complex. 99.99% of folks, even Americans, have no clue how massive it is. Heck, California alone has theworld's 8th greatest GDP by itself!
I'm old enough to remember the serious economic crisis in the early 70's. I remember the WIN (Whip Inflation Now) buttons, and the tax rebates from the Ford administration. What the U.S. is going through, it's been through before. It's somewhat cyclical.
Economies depend on the velocity of money in the economy, M1, M2, M3 and M4; that is what a "fast" or "slow" economy is. The tax rebate proposal (by BOTH parties) with the overnight rate being cut by the Fed would accelerate the monetary velocity, as those actions always have.
Secondarily, economies depend of psychological factors to remain at speed. Constant harping by an agenda-drivel media and politicians DO have an inpact on consumer behavior. We are seeing that in the U.S. because it's an election year, and politicians have no problem whatsoever to intentionally say things to destroy consumer confidence to serve their own political greed. In that regard there is no difference between the DR and the US.
Recessions are defined by retrospective statistics: two consecutive quarters of negative growth not the negative delta of acceleration. That has NOT happened, and, in fact, may not occur.
One aspect of the U.S. economy that no one is talking about much: the weakened dollar is actually spurring economic growth in the U.S. in several sectors, because goods and services are becoming much less expensive vis-a-vis foreign currency. More Europeans, Canadians and Asians are coming to the U.S for leisure. U.S. manufactured goods are less expensive to other economies. These are not necessarily negatives for the U.S. economy.
I'll make a prediction, and will be overjoyed to come back here to dine on a steaming plate of crow: if there is a change of political party in the U.S. Presidency, watch how quickly the doom and gloom of the pending cataclysmic "recession" disappears. I still remember how "the worst economy in 50 years" disappeared overnight 16 years ago...
I'm hoping you are right. The sub-prime disaster was created by the greed of the banks, and the unrealistic dreams of people of owning a house priced well beyond their means.
This is a direct reflection of Consumer Confidence.
It takes two to tango, a buyer/borrower and a seller/lender.
I don't just blame banks, I also blame the consumer.
Additionally, I'm nit sure folks really understand what the "sub-prime" fiasco is really all about. Yes, many of those loans have/are going bad. But based on rational unerwriting critera, they never shoul have been made in the first place. AND there is a massive amount of fraud within the sub-prime loan markets.
If it wasn't for the sub-prime loan market, a huge number of Americans would NEVER have been alble to own a home. And today, more Americans own a home than EVER.
There will be adjustments, and some investor wealth will be reduced. But there WILL be a buying opportunity at bargain basement prices for those saavy folks who buy property when the chattering Herd is selling, and sell when the chattering Herd is buying (like I did). A market has willing buyers and willing sellers, not just one.
I fully agree with your assessment. I wish I had some extra money to take advantage of the situation. Perhaps, although I doubt it, the inflated property prices in Jarabacoa will be adjusted downwards.
I don't see prices dropping. First of all, I'm not sure a real supply/demand maket exists in the DR in the purest sense. The fact that Gringo Prices exist for almost everything speaks to that. The price of real estate goes up when a foreign face shows up to look at a property (I've personally experienced that).
Additionally, the DR peso is strongly tied to the U.S. dollar. For that reason, Canadians and Europeans are finding good real estate bargains due to the exchange. That should keep prices proped up.
Beg to differ, but we have 2 cycles in the negative already!!!
Indeed, a weakened dollar makes a trip to the US inviting, but the "criminal" like treatment of visitors by the HMS system in place has turned away en masse a lot of those folks to the Caribbean and other countries where US dollars are the balancing currency, therefore they get the same if not, better bang for their buck (Euro) there.
For example, here in Orlando the amount of visitors has dropped from last year and the year before that as well; yet since we have inflation showing the head up, expenditure by those visiting is higher than before as well.
For all of that, Disney will soon start to lay off non-sensical employees coming the next quarter... Again inflation proves that higher income won't turn into higher profits and vice versa...
Given that most US export to other countries still relies in profit VS loss, you have the weakened dollar, indeed has made the goods cheaper to foreign buyers; yet we see that for this same reason that most companies can't afford to make the sale as it's now. A form stamped spare part costs the US manufacturer the same it did before, but his stock of raw material just went up with as a result of the same delta behavior.
He sells his product to foreign markets, but can hardly continue to produce a product that keeps getting more expensive as raw material reaches new heights every time stocks are replenished...
At that rate he's losing more money than what he's making... Eventually his overhead becomes too steep to be able to procure and keep a need to have inventory for orders as called for on his trade...
That's what inflation creates in the background...
As for cash being pumped into the economy and having positive results, is more the same play Spaniards played with the natives and their shiny mirrors...
For all the talk, the economy is not a political tool to be playing with. The FED cutting rates won't help the economy any better than last time. Didn't work on the mid term, won't work now.
And for the little people being the wheels on the economy's cart: Crunch the numbers and let me know whose quantity is far over the small and shrinking middle class... Just like in the case of the DR: If you can't afford it, you're poor...
The problem wasn't the sub-prime loans, but the actual hit on the housing market of constant new developments popping up before existing inventory could find a buyer...
The property flipping wasn't a factor here. We have local and City administrators too eager to rake in the developer’s money and following taxes on property to blame.
Had the housing development market followed a less free for all, actual inventory would not be as large and doomed as it's today.
The sub-prime buyer got hit hard, because they comprised some 60 to 70% of the inventory that was intended to hit the market later as equity build.
The huge losses taken by builders and developers as they sat on large inventories and waiting customers (who paid a fee in advanced for their new homes) made the worst case become even more tragic.
Developers and builders started to sell their units for huge discounts to carry liquid to refund many of those in the waiting lists and avoid building new inventory; as a result sub-prime home-owners and the regular folks saw their properties devalued and their equity drained overnight...
How could a home-owner compete to the same house being offered by as much as 30% to some cases 50% off theirs? That was the nail that shut the coffin...
Sub-prime owners were hit hardest; as they saw the only opportunity of selling the property before their mortgages ballooned and any chance of making back their initial payment and profit. Many had followed a successful trend that worked just months and about 5 years to the date, flipping the property before the full mortgage and prime met.
What caused this? Think over supply of cheap labor (undocumented workers), USA-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (which cut raw materials by as much as 40% in some cases) and last but not least: Greed....
The recession was ongoing way before this housing hammer came down; Iraq has proven to be a hole in the desert with no bottom to stop the bleeding...
Our hopes (more like this Republican Adm.) of taking in Iraq vast reserves for cheap came crumbling to the ground along our Blackhawks... One single high speed torpedo from Iran can shut down the entire supply in minutes...
Now we can't even leave Iraq without having an equal or stronger man (triumvirate) in power, or else we'll be looking at having the region lit from there on...
Our economy at home, based on the popular masses that spend a Kmart, Wal-Mart, Sears, etc... Is not looking good but worst every week...
I want to see the stock broker that sends his wife to Wal-Mart... Gimme a break!!!
The economy here is not "fuzzy numbers" as said by our "C" schooled Prez. It's most important that who sits there, knows that those numbers are to be treated with the same respect as you treat your paycheck...
Spend too much and face problems, save too little and it'll rain inside the house, don't keep a budget and face bankruptcy (like now)...
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