Tropical Storm Fay ... was ... Tropical Weather Disturbance

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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A Tropical Weather Disturbance is approaching Hispaniola and should be affecting the North Coast of the Island from tomorrow mid-morning onwards. This system seems to be made up of strong winds and rains, but a recon flight from Noaa and the NHC today did not find any evidence of anything more than winds and rain. In the parlance of weather folks, this is not a tropical depression yet.

Last season we saw systems such as this stalling out on our doorstep and causing tremendous damage as well as loss of life. Most long-term residents would simply go on with their lives but have good hurricane preparedness plans in place ... Good enough to be carried out in three to six hours at this stage of the hurricane season.

So, be aware that we could see rains and winds on the North Coast at the least, or at the most heavy rains and winds, causing mud slides and floods. Also be aware that this system could develop into a stronger storm overnight.
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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More information from the recon flights over this system today ... the data does not find a low level circulation at flight level (these folks fly pretty low..) and because of that, they could not upgrade the system to a tropical depression. Right now in the leewards they are experiencing scattered moderate rains and winds, to isolated strong rains and winds. This system could develop a little more before it gets to the DR but at its current pace it looks like we will see rains and winds on the north coast .. and in spots, heavy rains and winds.

Again, this system could develop and become stronger at any time. The Turks and Caicos and especially the Bahamas should be on the lookout.
 

Chris

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This system, now over the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico is continuing to move Westward at around 15 miles per hour. There does not appear to be a defined circulation on the surface, so we certainly do not have a tropical depression yet, although on the upper levels the system seems prime for development and looks impressive on the pics. This system could develop at any time. The timeline however is getting short for any further significant development before this system reaches our shores.

The system contains a small area of concentrated thunderstorms and gusty winds. A possible investigation by a recon aircraft will tell us more later in the day.

A 2nd low associated with a tropical wave is around 850 miles East of the Lesser Antilles.
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Thunderstorm intensity seem to have increased but there is no low level circulation yet. The system 92L will start to be influenced by the High Land Mass of Hispaniola, so it is anyone's guess as to how and where a low level circulation will form. The formation of a low level circulation will definitively tell us that we have a tropical depression.

The normal cautions of tropical storms in Hispaniola should apply ... caution about floods, flash floods and mudslides. If you have not done any hurricane preparedness, it would be a good idea to tend to this very necessary chore now. http://www.dr1.com/forums/weather-beyond/76033-2008-hurricane-preparedness.html
 
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Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Thanks Chris, great stuff. Today's papers (Diario Libre) talk about a disturbance 1600 kms away....

HB
 

reese_in_va

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Thank you Chris for all the updates.
Earlier this a.m. we experienced a powerful electrical storm, with much downpour, it moved directly over us (on the mountian behind POP). Thought for a moment that this tropical disturbance had finally come upon us. Looks like we will have to wait a few hours for the real deal. Thanks again.
 

Matilda

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Sep 13, 2006
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Heavy rain, overcast and lots of thunder in Juan Dolio. No wind though.

Matilda
 

STIOP

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Jun 11, 2004
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Hey guys.....

At STI airport we are already preparing for heavy rains and winds just in case.....

The disturbance Hillbilly refers to is in my opinion going to become a hurricane way before it gets to the lesser antilles......... i believe it is called invest 93L and the one affecting us right now is invest 92L probably being upgraded to tropical depression very soon by the looks of it....

Muchos Saludos DR1'ers

STIOP
 

Peter & Alex

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Cabarete Today 15th August 2008

Rain at 5.00am this morning for half an hour.
Weather cleared a bit by 06.30am with some blue sky patches.
Wind shifted to blow from the west along Cabarete Bay at 8.00am
Heavy rain in bursts from 09.00am to 10.15am.
11.19am now - dull & overcast but no wind to speak of.
Looks like a wet Presidente Beach Party this weekend.
Hi Chris - just lurking in the background!
 

M.A.R.

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Feb 18, 2006
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San Jose de las Matas, some rain in the morning, midday humid but some breeze and about 85F and cloudy, threat of rain.
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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OK, the center of this tropical disturbance is now over the Mona Passage and approaching the North coast of the DR. Puerto Rico reports lots of rain riding in on the backside of the system. Expectations are that the system is now busy strengthening into a tropical depression and it will be a fully fledged tropical depression once the center reaches the DR or soon thereafter. We will know more about what this system is actually doing after the recon flight this afternoon.

On the North Coast though we still have the interaction with the high land mass and that is always a tough one to call.

And yes I concur, the DR1 weather forum is a wonderful place to be in times of storms. The sharing of information and conditions and the spirit of helping one another is simply tremendous. Its lovely to see the names of old friends! Hi Guys! ;) and I always end up with a few new friends.

Of course, with a lot of rain in a short period, be aware that flash floods may occur in low lying areas, flooding, mudslides, raging rivers and if your hurricane preparedness plans are not complete, please do so urgently. We may not have much warning for the next one.
 
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Celt202

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May 22, 2004
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Heavy rain with thunder and lightning arrived in Santo Domingo within the last half hour. The wind is light with mild gusts.
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Yes indeed, tropical storm Fay is on our Northern doorstep. The low level circulation became better defined with flight level winds of around 51 miles per hour. There are now sufficient westerly winds south of the center to justify calling the system a tropical cyclone. These winds extend only a small 50 odd miles from the center.

Fay is expected to turn North after her sojourn over the North Coast of the Dominican Republic. Note, little has changed from what we said previously. Thunderstorm activity is intensifying and Fay will run across the North Coast of the DR at 10 to 15 miles per hour. This will be the sixth tropical storm of the Atlantic season. This should not be catastrophic for the DR as the high landmass will repel the system in my experience. However, storms changed over the past two or so years and we are all learning a lot.

Again, expect a lot of rain, a lot of wind, beach erosion, flash floods, mudslides and flooding in low lying areas. We do not have a hurricane on our hands, we have a tropical storm on our hands. Most of us should be able to cope just fine unless it stalls out on our beaches as we saw last year.
 
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CG

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Sep 16, 2004
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Las Terrenas 19h 30

Lots & Lots of wind out of the south east, quite strong gusts at times, very little rain for the moment.....
 

Chris

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Oct 21, 2002
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Remember, in this one, rain follow the winds.
All advisories for Puerto Rico are now void, so, going by their experience, it is quick duration.

I still feel we have a 'normal' tropical storm on our hands and would like to see the reports as the system travels up the coast. I may be wrong though as last year taught us a lot with stalled out systems.

This is the progress up to now...

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