The Central Electoral Board (JCE) extended the deadline for political alliances for the congressional and presidential alliances from 17 February, the day after the municipal election, to 19 February. This gives the political parties time to make adjustments after the Sunday, 16 February election. The municipal elections will have an impact. The question is, how much? Political analyst Rosario Espinal gives her opinion in an op-ed article in Hoy published on 12 February 2020.
Espinal says that those who expect to win big forecast the election will have a big impact on the May election outcome, while those that understand they will not win many elective municipal positions, say the election will not have a significant effect on May.
Espinal corrects both points of view. She highlights that the political party that wins the most municipal elective positions will show greater electoral strength. And that there is a high probability the same trend will continue in May. “But, be careful, a simple majority wins municipal positions,” she reminds her readers.
She highlights that different from the presidential election where 50%+1 of the vote is needed to win in a first-round, a mayor can be elected by 40% of the votes, “even if all the other candidates who lost add up to 60%.
Espinal explains that a fragmentation of the opposition will be needed for the party that wins with a relative majority in February to maintain its advantage in the May election. To win the presidential elections in the first round, even more voters will be needed, she explains.
Nevertheless, she says the February election will have an impact on the May outcome because the party that wins the most mayor positions will enter the May race with a stronger municipal political infrastructure than the losers. Since elected municipal officials this year will be sworn in in April, they will have the capacity to mobilize resources and people for the benefit of their party, she points out.
Espinal writes that historically a significantly smaller number of voters turn out for the municipal elections than for the presidential elections. “Who voted in February (those who are most active or motivated to vote) and another segment that abstained (perhaps as much as 20% of the voter roll) will vote in May,” she explains. If the additional voters stick to the same trend as in February, then February will be determinant of May. If not, the impact will be less. But she warns that those who abstained from voting in February may vote for the party that comes in second in February. “This is only a possibility, but it cannot be completely ruled out,” she comments.
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Hoy
13 February 2020