Jeanne Storm Damages Report

[Listerrose]

Great news if you're going to POP on the 21st....like me

What if you're going on the 18th......... like me?

It looks like POP will be clear (of this storm) by then but from your Graphic Dave what is the weather like after the Current Center Location has passed by POP - say on Friday @ 8PM? Can this be predicted?

 

[Chris]

What if you're going on the 18th......... like me?

It looks like POP will be clear (of this storm) by then but from your Graphic Dave what is the weather like after the Current Center Location has passed by POP - say on Friday @ 8PM? Can this be predicted?

Yes it can be predicted, as much as storms can be predicted. I would not say that the track on this pictures takes it away from the North Coast. I would say that on this picture, the eye of the storm is brushing the north coast. You would need to read the advisories with this graphic, to see the wind strenghts. Ken or SaltyDawg will soon make sense of those for us I hope.

Anyway, on the 5am advisories, the 24 and 36 hour positions show wind strengths of 65 knots - believe me, this is plenty to cause property damage, storm surge and flooding.

What I also see from the 5am advisories, is that the forecasters are finding it a challenge to forecast the intensity. They say that the models support intensification, but with the other weather systems and the landmasses nearby, they do not know how intense this storm could get.

For this one, I'm ready to do hurricane preparations quite fast and effectively once it seems necessary.

 

[KateP]

Even though the eye is supposed to pass to the north of us, remember that depending on the size and strength of the storm, we could still be affected. This thing is dropping up to 12 inches of rain in some places. Everyone knows what happens in this country when 1 inch falls. So please, don't ignore this storm just because the eye isn't supposed make landfall...

 

[planner]

Only one year here but.....

My one year anniversary here in DR just passed on Sept 7th, so I am still a rookie! BUt my experience is that people here (with a few noteworthy exceptions!) tend to take all of this too lightly!

One of these times it is not going to brush us but will come ashore strongly and then we will have major problems.

So far I have found that when we get brushed the weather goes back to being nice again fairly quickly. The oceans take a lot longer to settle down but it is beach weather fairly quickly. The worst is the garbage and junk on the streets from when the streets turn into rivers...... it washes everything downstream and it is gross....

For both of you on your way to POP in the next while, it should be fine! Send me a PM and we can chat....

 

[Pib]

Can somebody please substitute the picture hotlinked here with a link? It messed the size of the page and I have to scroll up and down and sideways.

Or just ignore me.

 

[Chris]

current satellite image

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_sat.html

I'm with you Pib! someone, change the picture please!

 

[SaltyDawg]

8:00 am Advisories

According to the 8:00 am advisories, the forecasts have shifted a bit off shore for the DR.

At 2:00am tonight, they put the storm 30-40 miles off the East end of the DR. That would mean 30mph winds and lot's and lot's of rain - Jeanne is a wet one with forecasts of 8 to 12 inches near the path.

Then at 2:00 pm tomorrow she should be due north of Cabo Frances Viejo about 40 to 50 miles off shore. Probably 30 to 40 mph winds and lot's of rain.

Then at 2:00 am Friday she is predicted to pass Puerto Plata about 60 miles off shore. So this translates to maybe 25-35mph winds with lots of rain. A good healthy gale.

By Saturday she will be well past the DR although the rain and light winds will probably persist.

However ..... at the moment Jeanne is 70 miles southeast of Puerto Rico moving at about 295 degrees at 8 mph and dumping 8 to 12 inches of rain near her path. She is forecast to pass over PR but she might be held more south by the Ivan storm system and a strong ridge in the extreme western Atlantic.

So let's see what Jeanne does with PR over the next 12 hours and then decide if we need to board up the windows. She isn't even a proper Hurricane yet but can sure cause some rain and flooding from the looks of it.

And, Listerrose, any way you look at it, by the time you are flying on Saturday, Jeanne should have passed the DR one way or the other. Either way, the airlines are pretty safety conscious. They don't take off if they can't land at their destination at take off time. Otherwise they can divert to Santiago (protected by the coast range and 40 miles inland) or to Santo Domingo. Then you wait out the storm in Paradise,with some good Ron or Cerveza and reach your destination the next day after you sober up.

So let's hold thumbs (cross your fingers to you norte americanos) that she follows her forecast path or even veers a bit more to the north.

I'm definitely biting my nails - but feeling a bit better than last night (if the forecasters are accurate).

Here's a nice graphic as of 7:45 this morning. You can see Ivan nicely as well and the ridge in the west Atlantic.

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/s...1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

Or if that doesn't work, go to:
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/hurricane/satellite_e.html
and click on the left image.

 

[Ken]

Of the tourist areas, Samana likely to be the most affected by Jeanne.

 

[Conchman]

Three of five computer models have the storm actually turn west into the heart of hispanola, which could cause widespread flooding and landslides. However, I think its more likely that the storm will turn into a cat. 1 hurricane by tomorrow morning and brush the north coast late afternoon, not a direct hit but the eye passing within 50 miles - meaning we will get tropical storm force winds. Pay attention to the 8 pm update tonite, this will be the best indicator and you will still have time to make preparation Thursday morning.

 

[Talldrink]

What if you're going on the 18th......... like me?

It looks like POP will be clear (of this storm) by then but from your Graphic Dave what is the weather like after the Current Center Location has passed by POP - say on Friday @ 8PM? Can this be predicted?

Im leaving the 18th too! I'm biting my nails with Keith here...

 

[Ken]

The 11 am advisory shows Jeanne continuing on the same course. Expected to pass over Puerto Rico today. The advisory indicates that the storm seems to be "suffering" a bit this morning from wind shear, but still could become a hurricane by the time it reaches PR. The 11 am windspeed was 70mph.

The forecasters note that conditions aloft not favorable for significant development through at least next 48-72 hours, and that passage over PR could contribute to an even greater delay.

How the storm comes off Puerto Rico is what must be watched now.

 

[johne]

Leaving together???

Im leaving the 18th too! I'm biting my nails with Keith here...

Talldrink--I am leaving on the 7am flight to SD Sat --where you going?

JOHNE

P.S. I HOPE IM leaving!!

 

[Dolores1]

This storm could take the DR by surprise. Given that the NHC tracks showed it going north, people have not prepared. While it is forecast to only be a 1 storm, three computer models now show it crossing the DR, which will mean lots of rain and winds. See http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html

It's as all of this talk of a 4/5 Ivan and Frances make a 1 look like nothing. Still is a big storm and people who live in shacks need to be prepared.

Here is a report from Puerto Rico, where the people also have been caught unaware.

http://www.endi.com/huracanes/noticia.asp?newsid={85A2826E-0003-4EDA-9A6E-619F908994F1}

 

[Dolores1]

2 pm graph is out. See http://www.intellicast.com/Local/US...harts&product=HurTrack1&prodnav=none&pid=none

My son's got off from school tomorrow because of the storm.

 

[Ken]

The 2pm advisory reports that Jeanne is now over Puerto Rico; still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph. Will go back into the Atlantic sometime tonight and make its way toward the Dominican Republic. Some strengthening possible when back in the Atlantic.

The 2pm track projection still shows Jeanne passing along the shore of the Dominican Republic, but as Dolores indicates, some of the computer models show it pasing over land.

The next advisory will be at 5 pm.

Dolores posted the 2 pm track projection below. Note that the projected wind speed is given in knots (kt) per hour. Knot is a nautical measure of speed, with 1 kt = 1.15 mph. So 65 kts is approximately 75 mph

 

[Ken]

The 5pm advisory indicates that Jeanne tried to form an eye as it prepared to land on Puerto Rico, but was unsuccessful in that attempt. A plane sent by NHC also found that the winds were a bit less than had previously been reported.

The latest track has been shifted a bit to the right, which means that the current projection for Jeanne is to pass Samana a little more seaward than has been previously reported. That is especially welcome news for me, since I have a sailboat moored in Samana harbor.

There is now an expectation of more of a northward turn about 48 hours from now.

There is a lot of conflicting data due mainly to conditions aloft. Some suggests the storm will dissipate in the near future while other indicates the storm will continue to move toward the Bahamas and possibly the US. For now, the forecasters are saying that upper level conditions will likely slow the development of the storm.

 

[Larry]

Storm looks bad. AA just cancelled my flight into POP for tomorrow . They pushed it back a day. I hope the storm had passed by Friday

Larry

 

[SaltyDawg]

Yes, Ken - it sure looks like you won't have to haul your sailboat off the beach the way it is looking with Jeanne.

As Jeanne moved to pass over PR, she has definitely turned more north - she is now on a track of 300 degrees at 10mph.

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew the storm this afternoon and confirmed the forecasts still show her passing Samana peninsula about 40-50 miles offshore in the night and North Coast 60 to 100 miles offshore tomorrow in the day.

The important update is at 5:00 am tomorrow after she moves past PR. However, every advisory seems to be improving our lot in the DR. Let's hope this trend continues.

Watch PJTs posts "on the ground" in Bavaro/Punta Cana as they will see Jeanne first.

 

[Ken]

The 8 pm report put me back on the edge of my chair, since the storm is now moving in a westerly direction across Puerto Rico. Those who have checked the links Dolores posted for the models will recall than one of them anticipated a westerly motion that would carry the Jeanne across the Mona Passage to the east coast of the DR and then across land south of the Bay of Samana.

However, as of 8 pm that forecasters are predicting that the storm will resume its former west-northwest motion and will pass near the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are currently 65 mph and the forward motion is 10 mph

Here is the 8 pm track, looking much like that as of 5 pm http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411.html

The next report will be at 11 pm.

 

[Ken]

The 11 pm forecast is less favorable due to the fact that Jeanne has been moving west for a time. The west-northwest movement expected to resume during night. 9 mph, with winds of 65 mph, but strengthening expected over the Mona Passage. Very possible it will be a hurricane with winds of about 75 mph as it passes along the north cost. A tropical storm/ hurricane watch now in effect for Puerto Plata to Monte Cristi, and a ts/h warning from Puerto Plata east. The current projected track indicates little distance between the storm and north coast until Jeanne passes Puerto Plata aroung 8 pm tomorrow night.

Thursday looks like a very, very nasty day for north coast residents.

I just talked by phone with Kim Beddall in Samana. She told me that all day the people there have been told not to worry because Jeanne is "just" a tropical storm.