Jeanne Storm Damages Report

[Conchman]

The good news was that it lost some strength, the bad news is that the track is now taking it closer to the North Coast. Looks like we will get hit with about 50-70mph winds and gusts tomorrow. It should start in Cabarete around noon, in Puerto pLata about 3 pm. With a direct hit we will feel it for about 12 hours but if it misses by 50 miles then maybe only strong winds for about 3-4 hrs.

Of course this is coming from someone who will bet on red if black shows up 12 times in a row on a roulette table..so take for what its worth...about 2 cents...hehehe..

 

[Keith&Cris]

So tell me ...

I lived on the shores of Lake Ontario, Canada for several years, and I loved the lightening and thunder storms that ripped across the lake and blew a hellish gales over my house. However, my house was never blown away mind you!
My question is this... am I crazy to be anxiously looking forward to making my future home in (hurricane alley) DR??
I can hardly wait!

 

[Conchman]

well a direct hit from a TS or a Cat 1 will be a good warm up

exciting but not dangerous unless you do something stupid or uncommon sense

 

[Dolores1]

The good news is that Tropical Storm Jeanne continues to be a tropical storm as it leaves Puerto Rico and begins to pass by the Dominican Republic, taking a northern diagonal up from the eastern coast as originally forecast. There was concern the storm could cut across the island, but as of the 5 am forecast this does not seem like it will be happening. As of that update, Jeanne was brushing the northeast coastline. Macao on the northernmost point of the east coast and Samana would get the most intense rains/winds of this gale. Let's wait for the day reports from PJT on weather in the area to come in this morning. http://dr1.com/forums/showthread.php?t=34529

A hurricane warning is still in effect for the eastern and northern coasts of the country from Puerto Plata to Isla Saona.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect along the northern coast from west of Puerto Plata westward to Monte Cristi and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to Santo Domingo.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W5+GIF/132133W5.gif

Also good news is that the computer models now all but one coincide in forecasting the northern route. See http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html

Had a trip planned to Santiago this morning and will be going anyway. Thank you, Jeanne.

 

[Ken]

The good news is that Tropical Storm Jeanne continues to be a tropical storm as it leaves Puerto Rico and begins to pass by the Dominican Republic, taking a northern diagonal up from the eastern coast as originally forecast. There was concern the storm could cut across the island, but as of the 5 am forecast this does not seem like it will be happening. As of that update, Jeanne was brushing the northeast coastline. Macao on the northernmost point of the east coast and Samana would get the most intense rains/winds of this gale.

As of 5 am it was still not absolutely certain storm will brush the coasts as it moves in a west-northwest direction since at the time the advisory was written Jeanne was moving west, as it had for the previous 12 hours. However, the forecasters stated that w-nw was a "more representative motion for the next 24 hours." The 8 am advisory should clarify what storm is doing.

Kim Beddall told me at 7:30 that there was almost no wind and no waves in the harbor or inner bay. She said the clouds were flying by at a very rapid rate and that she could see the coconut palms at higher elevations being buffeted by the wind. But that "down" in the city of Samana it was flat calm.

 

[Ken]

Hurricane Jeanne

As of 8 am, Jeanne was a hurricane with winds of 80 mph. The storm now over Cabo Engano on the east coast, and still moving in a westerly direction. A gradual turn to the w-nw expected during the next 24 hours.

Forecasters still speaking of the storm brushing along the north coast, but if it is still going west, it would seem to be headed toward the interior as was predicted by some of the models.

The 8 am advisory followed an inspection by a NHC plane trip through the storm.

Next full update at 11 am.

 

[Conchman]

Unconfirmed reports say that the roof was torn off the Barcelo Casino in Punta Cana.

The edge of tropical storm force winds were 120 miles from Puerto Plata at 5 am, meaning that by 6 pm tonight we should feel something. I dont think it can miss us anymore now.

 

[CaribbeanGeorge]

Punta Cana

It is 9.25 in Punta Cana, winds have been blowing since 4.00 am, growing strongly till now, at the Punta Cana Resort & Club, most of the damage have been feeled at our cana roofs, the landscape is 50% destroyed, we havent feeled yet the high tides, but winds have been blowing in all directions.
Keep You informed later.
CG.
:bunny:

 

[SaltyDawg]

8:00 am Advisories

I couldn't say it more clearly than the NOAA forecaster in the 8:00am advisories:

"Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
along the north coast of the Dominican Republic later this morning.
Winds and seas will continue subsiding along the coastline of Puerto
Rico during the day.

Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected over the Dominican Republic.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides. Several locations across Puerto Rico have already received
more than a foot of rain...including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques...with Naguabo in the eastern portion of the island having
received more than 20 inches of rainfall. Additional rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are still possible
over Puerto Rico. Many rivers on Puerto Rico are already at or
above flood stage.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic"

At 8:00am Jeanne is within 10 miles of Cabo Engano at 18.7N 68.4W with sustained winds of 70mph and gusts to 85mph.

The forecasts still have her going northwest on an observed track of 295 which puts her pretty much on top of (within 10 miles) Las Galeras on the Samana peninsula at about 2:00pm this afternoon. The good news is that more than 20 miles to the SE or SW of the storm center, the winds are 40mph or less.

Then at about 8:00pm tonight she should be about 15 miles north of Cabo Frances Viejo or 30 miles north of Nagua. Again 30 to 40 mph winds for Nagua.

At about 11:00pm this evening she should be north of Puerto Plata about 40 to 50 miles offshore. That translates to 30-40mph winds.

Then at 2:00am she is forecast to be about 35 miles north of Cabo Isabela near Luperon on the north coast. Good luck to all those international boats holing up in Luperon for the Hurricane season. However, Jeanne is forecast to have strengthened a bit by then meaning winds of perhaps 40 to 50 mph.

After that she should be moving off to the northwest and getting progressively farther away from the North Coast.

Bear in mind that this is NOAA's forecast. Two of the computer models, however, show her going inland from Cabo Engano and going up the Cibao Valley. Let's hope that's not the case cause the Banana and other fruit crops are only now really recovering from the floods in January and February. The NOAA guys are generally pretty accurate, however, so let's hope they carry on being so.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html

And don't forget the rain and flood factors. If you are low lying, even in the Cibao valley - Jeanne is a real wet one - so be prepared.

btw, it looks like Punta Cana/Bavaro may have been crossed by the eye of the storm. See PJT's recent post in the Punta Cana/Bavaro thread.

Next update after the 11:00 advisories.

 

[Conchman]

From the satellite pictures one can see a huge rain cell even bigger than the hurricane itself, about 150 miles behind the storm center. This will bring a lot of rain after the initial storm. This cell, about 150 miles in diameter, has not even hit Puerto Rico yet.

Expect a very wet weekend, flooding will be a major concern.

 

[Chris]

From the satellite pictures one can see a huge rain cell even bigger than the hurricane itself, about 150 miles behind the storm center. This will bring a lot of rain after the initial storm. This cell, about 150 miles in diameter, has not even hit Puerto Rico yet.

Expect a very wet weekend, flooding will be a major concern.

Yes! On this high res satellite image (from yesterday) you can see the trough with the almost 'following' system quite clearly... http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/ivan091504-1545z-nolines.jpg

 

[KateP]

Yes! On this high res satellite image (from yesterday) you can see the trough with the almost 'following' system quite clearly... http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/ivan091504-1545z-nolines.jpg

This image is even more impressive...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

 

[kpena]

Barcelo Bavaro information

Unconfirmed reports say that the roof was torn off the Barcelo Casino in Punta Cana.

The edge of tropical storm force winds were 120 miles from Puerto Plata at 5 am, meaning that by 6 pm tonight we should feel something. I dont think it can miss us anymore now.

I am planning on going to Barcelo Bavaro on September 24th so any other information on damage to the Barcelo Bavaro resort would be appreciated.
Any ideas on my chances of being able to make it to the resort and it not
being either out of commission or severely lacking (food, electricity, leaks,
major damage, etc.) would be appreciated. As of now I am glad I insured the trip.

 

[SaltyDawg]

From the satellite pictures one can see a huge rain cell even bigger than the hurricane itself, about 150 miles behind the storm center. This will bring a lot of rain after the initial storm. This cell, about 150 miles in diameter, has not even hit Puerto Rico yet.

Expect a very wet weekend, flooding will be a major concern.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg

You're right on that one, Conchman - as you look at the satellite image (this one as of 9:45 this morning, it looks like the storm is centered around the eye which is now close to Cabo Engano at the east end of Hispaniola.

However, there is a hugh trough between this section of the storm and the rain cell to the east of this and east of PR as Conchman mentions. And that is probably why they are forecasting such heavy rainfalls. If you look at the whole picture including the outer spiral arms, you see just how big this storm really is in area. Good thing she is "only" a Category 1 storm.

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/s...1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

Also, notice that Ivan is still an influence to keep Jeanne to the east. The ridge in the western Altlantic is also still exerting a south easterly influence as it moves off to the east and dissipates towards Bermuda.

 

[Chris]

I am planning on going to Barcelo Bavaro on September 24th so any other information on damage to the Barcelo Bavaro resort would be appreciated.
Any ideas on my chances of being able to make it to the resort and it not
being either out of commission or severely lacking (food, electricity, leaks,
major damage, etc.) would be appreciated. As of now I am glad I insured the trip.

Let the storm first pass fully and then someone could possibly let you know - at the moment, they are still feeling the brunt of it....

 

[SaltyDawg]

And then there were more!

So prepare NOW for Jeanne, but don't forget to watch over your shoulder - the next one is on it's way.

According to National Hurricane Center's Tropical Outlook as of 5:00am today:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g5/VisSatellite.html

 

[KateP]

Check out this report from someone in Puerto Rico this morning... http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/culebra.shtml

 

[travel4net]

puerto plata

is anyone in Puerto Plata right now, I have clients going to the riu mambu on sat. 18 2004, this will be there first time there. what does the forecast look like for the north west coast?. Thanks

 

[Ken]

Which poster was it that said storms with names of women are more predictable?

Jeanne now moving, in the words of the trackers, "just north of west", which means instead of moving along the coast, it is on the inside of the coast. And for at least the next 24 hours, it is expected to be just inside or on the coast.

11 am track projection http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W+GIF/161243W.gif

Winds still 80 mph, but forward motion now reduced to 6 mph, probably because it is passing over land. But it means those who are favored by a visit by Jeanne must put up with her longer.

There will be an updated advisory at 2 pm

 

[Chris]

Which poster was it that said storms with names of women are more predictable?

More unpredictable Ken! Looks like the BAM and GFDL models are winning this one....http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html