Manipulation of Exchange Rate...

NALs

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MerengueDutchie said:
Live and learn I see.. I always assumed that the illegal economy was mostly run on peso's.. apart from indirect effects...hence the limited influence on the formal economy.. you have any idea how big this informal dollar part is?
Historically, the informal dollar part of the informal economy has been minimal, but during the crisis, the number of people using dollars in the informal economy as a form of payment increased sharply.

In the formal economy, what occured was that businesses posted their prices in US Dollars and at the moment of sale, they would charge you in pesos depeding on where the exchage rate was at that given time, due to the volatility of the exchange rate. Changing the prices of things was bothersome, when exchange rate changed in some cases by the hour.

However, in the informal sector, many people simply used the dollars as forms of payments and the equivalent in peso if dollars were not available to the purchaser.

Leonel made a comment about this problem earlier in his term when he addressed the issue of congress wanting to be paid in US Dollars as oppose to Dominican Pesos.

To make matters more complicated, along the border many communities live on the Haitian Gourde, which is often used as legal tender along with the Peso. This activity is much lower compared to dollars and much lower compared to historical evidence.

In fact, here is a little quick history...

For many years in the beginning of the republic, the currency of choice nationwide was the Mexican Silver Dollar. The first American invasion in the 1920s shifted the legal tender of the republic from Mexican Silver Dollars to American Gold Dollars (this was done in part to facilitate trade with the US since the moment the US took control of the country, the entire economy of the country (sugar and tobacco) was remodelled to serve the American market and from that point forward this country has been closely linked economically to the United States) but also to remove the adverse effect the losing value of Silver in the international markets was having on the economy as a whole.

During those times, the Haitian Gourde was also widely used as if it was legal tender in the informal sectors along the border and south, extending as far east as the province of Azua. In fact, the south was more geared towards Haiti than it was to the DR, with many reports in newspapers of the era raising awarness of what they called "The Haitian extension in Dominican Territory" going as far as stating that "when the people of Azua speak of the Capital, they are speaking of Port-au-Prince, not Santo Domingo".

This was mostly due to the creation of the sugar monoculture in the eastern plains, which was an economic activity created by American and Cuban sugar barons in areas of the country that had no source of labor or population of any significance. Thus, Dominicans from the Cibao, but especially from the south migrated in search of jobs in the east. The flow of southerners to the eastern plantations was so severe, that the governor of Azua Province (which at the time was the entire south stretching from the border almost to Santo Domingo) demanded officials to halt the creation of sugar cane plantations in the east by foreigners and to encourage development in the south. Former peasants who sold their land to the sugar barons later became employed by the sugar plantations, but the demand for cheaper labor was met with resistance from Dominican workers and the most Cuban and American owned sugar cane plantations started the habit of importing foreign cheaper labor from the British West Indies. This habit later switched to importing labor from Haiti at the request of American and Cuban sugar plantation owners who were being affected by the strike to British West Indians had in protest of low wages. In fact, the British West Indians (cocolos) were demanding the samething Dominicans were earlier, but the sugar cane plantation owners (mostly foreigners) demanded cheap labor. Thus, they simply did what they had to to keep wages low and they began the habit of importing Haitians as oppose to British West Indians. During the Trujillo dictatorship, Trujillo reluctantly agree to agreements with Haiti for importation of Haitians into Dominican sugarcane feilds owned by Americans and Cubans, and later, (as Trujillo himself became a Sugar baron) started to import Haitians to his plantations unwillingly, because if he would not had done so, his plantations (which carpeted a huge chunck of the national land) would have failed against the foreign owned plantations who were using the cheaper Haitians labor as oppose to the expensive British West Indian labor or to the even more expensive Dominican labor pool.

The Cibao had always had its economy based primarily on Tobacco and a few manufacturing ventures, except that in the Cibao these economic activities sprung in areas where labor was abundant and readily available and given that the job opportunities in the Cibao paid better than the foreign owned sugar plantations in the east, the Cibao never needed to import labor from any other country or region of the DR.

However, the severe lack of investment in the south, the constant flow of working age workers towards the east, and the ever growing economic connections to Haiti as oppose to the rest of the DR, caused for much concern to officials who could do little, because the country was virtually being controlled from abroad, primarily the United States and the DR (and Cuba) was being used to supply that country with the much needed sugar.

Thus, in the South the habit of using the Haitian Gourde became endemic. As time passed, the south became ever closer to Haiti and Port-au-Prince and less so to the DR and Santo Domingo. All of this changed the moment Trujillo came to power.

But, this is to show that this is nothing new.
 
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Oct 13, 2003
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Nal0whs said:
Leonel made a comment about this problem earlier in his term when he addressed the issue of congress wanting to be paid in US Dollars as oppose to Dominican Pesos.

Really, I cannot believe these ungrateful unpartiotic fools...it would have buried any confidence in the peso!

Btw, thanks for the info on the other pieces..
 

mondongo

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MerengueDutchie said:
Supply side; the influx of dollars through tourism, remittances and trade (export) as these will mostly determine how many dollars are on the island and available for exchange.

On the supply side, two other sources are very important: 1) Free Trade Zone local salaries and local expenditures, 2) DR government borrowing.

If you look at what happened in Argentina, hard currency was, to a large extent, accumulated by borrwing over US$40Billion from international organizations (IMF et al). The DR is not doing this yet. But when they finally sell off all the failed bank assets, and when the DR economy picks up steam, you will see foreign borrowing pick up.

Yearly sources of US$ (approx):

Remittances: US$2+Billion
Tourism: US$2+Billion
FTZ: US$1+ Billion
Govt Loans: Wild Card?? Anywhere from US$300Billion and up.
Net Trade: This number is actually negative because the DR imports more than it exports to the USA.
 
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mondongo said:
On the supply side, two other sources are very important: 1) Free Trade Zone local salaries and local expenditures, 2) DR government borrowing.

If you look at what happened in Argentina, hard currency was, to a large extent, accumulated by borrwing over US$40Billion from international organizations (IMF et al). The DR is not doing this yet. But when they finally sell off all the failed bank assets, and when the DR economy picks up steam, you will see foreign borrowing pick up.

Yearly sources of US$ (approx):

Remittances: US$2+Billion
Tourism: US$2+Billion
FTZ: US$1+ Billion
Govt Loans: Wild Card?? Anywhere from US$300Billion and up.
Net Trade: This number is actually negative because the DR imports more than it exports to the USA.

Mondongo,

1) It is my understanding that FTZ salaries are paid in pesos not in dollars.. the actual conversion cost of these salaries (if not paid by locals) are in my view already included in exports for which dollars are received.. if you want to count them seperately then you have to count only the added value of export not the total price which includes the salaries..

2) Govt loans in dollars are used to meet govt obligations in dollars, hence although part of the total they hardly factor into the exchange rate as they are used internally by the govt to meet its obligations. They do influence the total demand side rather than the supply side as they never actually arrive on the island.. but lessen the dependency of the govt on the dollar market here.. I would strongly advise against borrowing dollars to pay for peso expenditure, those should be covered by peso loans imo.. though there prob is some overlap..
 

mondongo

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MerengueDutchie said:
Mondongo,

1) It is my understanding that FTZ salaries are paid in pesos not in dollars.. the actual conversion cost of these salaries (if not paid by locals) are in my view already included in exports for which dollars are received.. if you want to count them seperately then you have to count only the added value of export not the total price which includes the salaries..

2) Govt loans in dollars are used to meet govt obligations in dollars, hence although part of the total they hardly factor into the exchange rate as they are used internally by the govt to meet its obligations. They do influence the total demand side rather than the supply side as they never actually arrive on the island.. but lessen the dependency of the govt on the dollar market here.. I would strongly advise against borrowing dollars to pay for peso expenditure, those should be covered by peso loans imo.. though there prob is some overlap..

MD, Those are good points....therefore, I double checked my assertions.

1) The salaries are paid in DR$, but the FTZ companies have to get those DR$ by exchanging US$. The local costs to the Free Trade Zone companies are not included in the import/export numbers (balance of payments data). When I checked the recently published 2005 Jan-Jun Central Bank report on the DR economy, you will find on page 6 the listing of the FTZ exports listed separately from the local costs (US$480Million for the half year, which is very close to my estimate of US$1Billion for the year).

2) The greated damage inflicted by Mejia was not his handlig of the failed bank crisis, it was his accumulation of US$Billions in external loans. These loans that DR govts take in (in US$) are mostly taken out for phantom projects that are never completed. Rarely do you see the govt use these loans to meet obligations. When US$ loans come due, they just issue more debt.....just like all other governments. In the end, as we all know, the vast majority of the US$ from these loans is stolen.
 

mondongo

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and another thing

as I perused the Central Bank data, I was genuinely shocked to see that the import/export commercial DR deficit is much worse than the reported
US$ -2Billion. This number should be around US$4Billion.

To get this larger number, I take out the effect of the FTZ, I now see that the trade deficit is a gargantuan US$4Billion. Essentially, all of the US$2Billion of the remittances and all of the US$2Billion from tourism goes to finance this trade deficit.

This would be the equivalent of a US$3Trillion deficit in the US (its currently US$600Billioin).
 
Oct 13, 2003
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thanks for looking up the numbers

As I don't always have the time nor ability ot go through spanish language accounts..

I was a bit surprised though to see the wage item accounted for separately and not included in the net result of the FTZ.. imo you would have cost of produciton in which you would include wages and subtract them from revenue to arrive at gross margin.. in this manner you would only have an exchange rate effect due to timing on the wage bills...that's how it would show up in a companies books anyway (DC accounting method)..well what do I know about Dominican accounting.. do they also account separately for cost like electricity etc..and therefore apply AC accounting?

On your second point this would imply that the FTZ income (as accounted for seperately without netting it with the production cost so that the no net value produced will result (man I still think that's crazy)) would account for US 2 Billion annually?

On the other hand if the cost of production is accounted for in seperate posts in the accounts then you should only subtract the net effect after deducting the imports for the FTZ, since the US 2 billion is not a balance item but total revenue.. I am hoping that trade deficit is actually calculated by imports minus exports.

I look forward to your opinion!
 

mondongo

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i am not an accountant :)

MerengueDutchie said:
As I don't always have the time nor ability ot go through spanish language accounts..

I was a bit surprised though to see the wage item accounted for separately and not included in the net result of the FTZ.. imo you would have cost of produciton in which you would include wages and subtract them from revenue to arrive at gross margin.. in this manner you would only have an exchange rate effect due to timing on the wage bills...that's how it would show up in a companies books anyway (DC accounting method)..well what do I know about Dominican accounting.. do they also account separately for cost like electricity etc..and therefore apply AC accounting?

On your second point this would imply that the FTZ income (as accounted for seperately without netting it with the production cost so that the no net value produced will result (man I still think that's crazy)) would account for US 2 Billion annually?

On the other hand if the cost of production is accounted for in seperate posts in the accounts then you should only subtract the net effect after deducting the imports for the FTZ, since the US 2 billion is not a balance item but total revenue.. I am hoping that trade deficit is actually calculated by imports minus exports.

I look forward to your opinion!

MD, you again make good points, and you force me to really think about this....which is ok with me...i like clarity....your questions make me less certain of my assertions...but here it goes:

1) US$4Billion in FTZ exports would be the company "revenue"
2) US$2Billion in FTZ imports would be "cost of goods sold", but only the "raw material" part of that cost. This makes sense because imports are likely valued before any Dominican has added value to the FTZ product.
3) US$1Billion in FTZ local expenditures are the expenses that fall both under "costs of goods sold" (salary of workers turning raw material into product), and under "operating expenses". This would not be included in cost of goods sold because it is the expense in turning the imports into final product (revenue).
4) US$XX: there is likely another set of expenses for the FTZ that does not show up in the DR financial statements (my guess).
5) US$XX: then you probably have some financing expenses.
6) Net Result: the income before taxes and dividends is likely much less than 20%....
 
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thanks again!

Mondongo,

I concur with your assertion so if we run the numbers a little we would get:

1. Revenue = 4,000 Mio

2. Cost of goods = 2,000 Mio

3. Labour = 1,000 Mio (lets dispense with the direct and indirect costing part as we don't know the split)

4. Other = unknown (say 450 Mio, in electricity, rents, local transport)

5. EBITDA = 550 Mio (unknown=estimated at 450 Mio)

6. ITDA = 400 Mio (Interest, Taxes, Dividends and Amortisation)

7. Net revenue = prob around 150 Mio dollares?

Now in order to take into account the real effect of taking out the FTZ on the trade balance.. I think we need to establish which items are local and which are non-local.. let's say that (1) - (2) - a big part of (6) and (7)number would represent the net effect on the trade balance as the other items are local costs..

That would mean we would get (4,000) - (2,000) - (300?) - (100?) = 1,600 if you detract the FTZ effect from the DR trade balance..

How does that sound? Can you provide more specific numbers?
 

mondongo

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actual 2004 numbers

I.- CUENTA CORRIENTE...............................1398.9

I.1 BALANZA COMERCIAL.......................-2,094.7

EXPORTACIONES...............................5,749.9
NACIONALES.................................1,333.5
ZONAS FRANCAS...........................4,416.4

IMPORTACIONES..............................-7,844.6
NACIONALES................................-5,369.9
ZONAS FRANCAS..........................-2,474.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FTZ 2004 Local Expenditures..........................869.4

(All above numbers in US$Million)

Above are the actual numbers from 2004 Balance of Payments Central Bank document (only part of the document shown), and from the Informe de la Economia de la Republica Dominicana 2004.
 

mondongo

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FTZ effect on trade balance

MD, Your modifications to my US$4Billion estimate of the DR trade deficit are reasonable. But note that I am not including financial trade flows.

(1) - (2) is can be seen by just inspecting the Balance of Payments I just posted. The other numbers, as you mention, are harder to figure out. The other numbers would include FTZ financial trade flows, which I have not figured out from the Central Bank documents.

I would probably use a smaller ratio than 300/400 of (6). I am guessing that, depending of the type of FTZ company (subsidiary, for example), the dividend portion of the ITDA could be the largest. In this case, this amount is sent back overseas as profit.

In fact, what is often left over for (7) is nearly zero, beacuse of the dividend sent back to the first world as profit.
 
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windeguy said:
I read earlier today that the government has warned against the massive buying of dollars since there are plenty of dollars here and they will control the rate.
This is despite a slight drop in value of the peso over the past day or two.

How is the peso a floating currency in that situation?

I think it is NOT..


Sorry but... this is news why again?

No the peso is not exactly floating.. that's exactly our point of the whole thread..we are trying to assess what amount of dollar influx is free to be exchanged at a market rate (our prelim conclusion is little but some).. we are still curious as to 'black market' numbers.. how much of th economy is 'out of sight' and thus beyond control of the govt.. Nals has made some assertions but we find it difficult to come up with exact numbers (prob because it is a black market ;) )

Anyways.. the peso is not floating vs the dollar since the majority of the dollar stream goes through govt hands at some point of the process..
 

jstnorv05

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Jun 13, 2005
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I enjoyed your explanation but I disagree with you about the peso's market value. I believe it is overvalued and I think the rate would be in the neighborhood of the mid 30's without any intervention. This issue is obviously debateable as the following quote from Aug 9th indicates: "The governor of the Central Bank, H?ctor Valdez Albizu disqualified a study from the Technical Ministry, in which its head, Temistocles Montas, affirmed that the peso has been overvalued." I do believe, however, that keeping peso as low against the dollar is a smart move, for now. Paying off their dollar debts with fewer pesos has saved the Dominican government a lot of money. My opinion is that they will alllow to slowly float back up to its market rate in time for the next heavy tourist season. In other words in the next few months.


Nal0whs said:
Many people continue to cling on the idea that the peso is overvalued, but I have found no evidence of such. The peso is floating against the dollar as freely as it was during the Hippo years, the difference now is a stable and much more sound government is in place compared to the chaotic fiasco we went through with Hippo.

In fact, we had no real government during Hippo's rule. The country was on a free fall with no resposibility being taken by anyone.

Today, of course, things are different.

Can you believe that we are going to end this year with one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America, again?!!

The years are surely coming back!!
 

NALs

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jstnorv05 said:
My opinion is that they will alllow to slowly float back up to its market rate in time for the next heavy tourist season. In other words in the next few months.
Don't count on it.
 

Criss Colon

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10,000 Lose Jobs In The DR's Tourist Industry!

Don't believe ME? Read it in today's DR1 News Archives! Head of DR's Hotel Association said it! Also that DR has the highest electricity rates in the area which iscausing "US" to lose "Our" competative edge! Sound like the economy is improving.Premium gas this morning is at 128,9 pesos a gallon!!

Peso drops in value to more than 30 to 1 against the US Dollar.Ca mon Peso!! Keep falling! I love those days at more than 50 to 1!!!

CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

"Let Them Eat Casabe"!!



What a Country!!!
 

cobraboy

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jstnorv05 said:
I believe it is overvalued and I think the rate would be in the neighborhood of the mid 30's without any intervention.
I cannot find a Black Market in currency in the DR. If you are convinced the peso is overvalued, why don't you go out and give someone 35 pesos for their dollars, and use the dollars for purchases, since many businesses will take either?

I am doubting the rate has been manipulated to the extent many conspiratorialists want to believe. 25-28% overvalued is waaaaaay too much for a currency black market NOT to develop.
 

HOWMAR

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cobraboy said:
I cannot find a Black Market in currency in the DR. If you are convinced the peso is overvalued, why don't you go out and give someone 35 pesos for their dollars, and use the dollars for purchases, since many businesses will take either?
.
Why should he when he can go to a bank and buy dollars for 31 pesos per dollar?
 

Conchman

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If there is government manipulation of the exchange rate (and I think they do this via pressure on the banks/exchange houses), there should be a black market out there but its not...its quite puzzling.
 
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Conchman said:
If there is government manipulation of the exchange rate (and I think they do this via pressure on the banks/exchange houses), there should be a black market out there but its not...its quite puzzling.

I also think it's because it is difficult to keep dollars out of the hands of organised govt crime.. last year they had military personel drop by exchange houses to pursuade them to exchange their dollars for pesos with the govt at the appointed rate.. at the same time when you could exchange dollars for pesos but hardly the other way around at banks and cambio's.. I think that might have been the start of a black market if the cambio houses were allowed to hoard dollars.. as it is they weren't and as a result dollars are in free rotation in insufficient amounts..
 

jstnorv05

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My Thoughts

One way this could have happened is by reducing the amount of pesos in circulation. This is mostly guesswork on my part but I remember that around the time of the rise in the value of the peso they issued a regulation about peso notes that had writing being invalid. You could go to the bank and exchange them before a certain date. If they never reissued the notes they took out of circulation it would have been one way that they reduced the amount of pesos available. I am not sure if this is what they did but less pesos in circulation would at least partially explain its rising value, my contention that it is over valued and the lack of a black market.

Conchman said:
If there is government manipulation of the exchange rate (and I think they do this via pressure on the banks/exchange houses), there should be a black market out there but its not...its quite puzzling.