sorry buddy, but i did not understand a single word of your post.
where do you live?
Mike
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2015 Hurricane Season
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sorry buddy, but i did not understand a single word of your post.
where do you live?
Mike
as for Danny,
we can hit da Delete Button to take it out of our minds.
under the line, it went and left very precise as awaited form days/almost a week ago.
the only surprising factor been that hurricane Danny reached on it's peak moments a higher sustained windforce than expected.
i did not await it to pas over the 80knots margin, but it reached for some hrs 100knots and been "named" a mayor hurricane,
but one that was designated to go down well before reaching the first Islands from the beginning, so that passing of a peak point/power di not matter at all.
it's gone now, no more shown on maps, no more tracking models run it's heading.
it should slow down, windpowers are already insignificant and not awaited to recover.
as for "Waterloads", the remaints of Danny do not contain "Loads" of water.
IF Puerto Rico get's Lucky, they may receive 2 inches of water, considerin that they are actually 10 inches below their average 33 inches waterloads received til this point of the season, they will get a sprinkling and def stay on at least Severe Drought right after "Danny".
for the DR, well, we do not have any "moving Storm" anymore.
the clouds left can move anywhere, and they rain down somewhere til they are dry.
in case the remaining "system" comes close to the DR's southshores, IF very lucky, 2 inches of rain could be received, but that will most likely stay a unfulfilled dream.
to describe a not awaited EXTREME situation, if the Wave can keep "rainloads" concentrated together AND pass's right along the DR southshores, then the worst case scenario would be 3-4 inches of rainfal, a lottery win, no danger to anybody, unless someone lives a few ft aside a actually dried out riverbed.
Danny is history,
some rainy clouds which may contain some low breeze, are not the weather conditions which need to pay attention to.
if it rains somewhere for a few hrs, lucky them.
Mike
we can hit da Delete Button to take it out of our minds.
under the line, it went and left very precise as awaited form days/almost a week ago.
the only surprising factor been that hurricane Danny reached on it's peak moments a higher sustained windforce than expected.
i did not await it to pas over the 80knots margin, but it reached for some hrs 100knots and been "named" a mayor hurricane,
but one that was designated to go down well before reaching the first Islands from the beginning, so that passing of a peak point/power di not matter at all.
it's gone now, no more shown on maps, no more tracking models run it's heading.
it should slow down, windpowers are already insignificant and not awaited to recover.
as for "Waterloads", the remaints of Danny do not contain "Loads" of water.
IF Puerto Rico get's Lucky, they may receive 2 inches of water, considerin that they are actually 10 inches below their average 33 inches waterloads received til this point of the season, they will get a sprinkling and def stay on at least Severe Drought right after "Danny".
for the DR, well, we do not have any "moving Storm" anymore.
the clouds left can move anywhere, and they rain down somewhere til they are dry.
in case the remaining "system" comes close to the DR's southshores, IF very lucky, 2 inches of rain could be received, but that will most likely stay a unfulfilled dream.
to describe a not awaited EXTREME situation, if the Wave can keep "rainloads" concentrated together AND pass's right along the DR southshores, then the worst case scenario would be 3-4 inches of rainfal, a lottery win, no danger to anybody, unless someone lives a few ft aside a actually dried out riverbed.
Danny is history,
some rainy clouds which may contain some low breeze, are not the weather conditions which need to pay attention to.
if it rains somewhere for a few hrs, lucky them.
Mike
what we focus now on, as it comes in very very fast and improving by the hour, is Invest 98L.
i am surprised that it was not named Tropical Storm Erika on the 2PM update.
the erason to not name it, yet, lies on the still not clear enough circulation.
such large/wide system needs more time, changes slower up and down, moves more steadily.
it is a wet system with waterloads well above of what the Islands need at once.
we will foloow the progress of that "maybe/soon to be" Erika.
it hit a open window with moistured mid atmosphere after Danny took good amounts of dry air and the Saharan Air Layer away, it has still time to grow and shut out outside influences before the less favorable conditions are reached closer to the Islands.
the opposite is the case for the 3rd wave on the highway, the easternmost one around the Cape Verde Islands,
this one came offshore too late and got mingled with the atmosphere's Reload of sand Saharan Sand and dry air before it could grow up to a boy, it will not develop to anything, just wander westwards for a few days on quick speed and disappear before within a 1000miles reach of the island belt.
Mike
i am surprised that it was not named Tropical Storm Erika on the 2PM update.
the erason to not name it, yet, lies on the still not clear enough circulation.
such large/wide system needs more time, changes slower up and down, moves more steadily.
it is a wet system with waterloads well above of what the Islands need at once.
we will foloow the progress of that "maybe/soon to be" Erika.
it hit a open window with moistured mid atmosphere after Danny took good amounts of dry air and the Saharan Air Layer away, it has still time to grow and shut out outside influences before the less favorable conditions are reached closer to the Islands.
the opposite is the case for the 3rd wave on the highway, the easternmost one around the Cape Verde Islands,
this one came offshore too late and got mingled with the atmosphere's Reload of sand Saharan Sand and dry air before it could grow up to a boy, it will not develop to anything, just wander westwards for a few days on quick speed and disappear before within a 1000miles reach of the island belt.
Mike
I live in Santo Domingo. In the radar that you posted it showed an area in the caribbean sea that did not have dry air (assuming the dry air in the radar is the yellow stuff) and Danny was apporaching that area. Which is why i asked what are the atmospheric conditions for development of a storm at the moment around the Island of Hispaniola.. But that comment isn't valid anymore because Danny already disappeared.
The reference to Tropical Storm Noel was because i remember it formed right off the coast of Santo Domingo.
The reference to Tropical Storm Noel was because i remember it formed right off the coast of Santo Domingo.
o.k.,
now i got it.
you've been geographically mistaken i "guess"(i don't know of course).
i did not post Radar Images since weeks/maybe a couple months,
and the only Radar near my soil is the San Juan/PR Radara station, which does by far not reach/cover anything near st dgo, much too far away.
the loops i posted are Sat Loops,
but none of the loops of Danny(nor any other i posted this season) did show Santo Domingo,
as the Capital never been any near any system so far.
the "big" Island shown on the loops been not the DR, it is Puerto Rico, shown on the loops where Danny approached the Lesser Antilles on the SE of PR.
for Santo Domingo no influence been forecasted so far, as far as Danny goes,
it died long before Santo Domingo could have been within a forecastable vicinity/distance of the former Storm.
the capital will stay all fine
Mine
Less Moisture
I think the yellow parts are just clouds of a lesser reflectivity and thus would have less moisture / water in them.
donP
I think the yellow parts are just clouds of a lesser reflectivity and thus would have less moisture / water in them.
donP
as far as colours go,
only on the Water Vapor Maps/Lops of course,
green/dark Green is the highest density of moisture/Waterloads,
yellow is dry air, no moisture to measure at all.
the water vapor loop looks like this one from Invest 98L
only on the Water Vapor Maps/Lops of course,
green/dark Green is the highest density of moisture/Waterloads,
yellow is dry air, no moisture to measure at all.
the water vapor loop looks like this one from Invest 98L
as far as colours go,
only on the Water Vapor Maps/Lops of course,
green/dark Green is the highest density of moisture/Waterloads,
yellow is dry air, no moisture to measure at all.
the water vapor loop looks like this one from Invest 98L
Yes it was a map just like this one but with Tropical Depression Danny approaching an area that didn't have yellow stuff (dry air)!!
i don't know.
it is typical that it get's sent over from africa(the SAL) right on time for the beginning of the season when storms start to form on the far east, out of tropical waves sent by the far eastern Monsum rains towards africa, crossing the central african continent and hitting the tropical atlantic waters, sometimes converting under certain circumstances into the well known strong so called Cape Verde Hurricanes, the big ones of the Atlantic Hurricanes.
that peak time of the year for those tropical waves form Africa, runs around mid august til late september.
the actually present dry air content in the mid atmosphere is something different to the Saharan Air Layer/Sahara Sand(named short SAL).
the mid atmosphere dries or moistures due many different other circumstances/occurances playing tiogether.
this year, for the now running peak time of african waves, the mid atmosphere is very dry and stable, a factor which is against development of storms.
such does not mean they can't form, but it means they form less likely, slower, less strong and last less long of a time frame, than they would under more favorable conditions.
as seen on hurricane Danny.
despite the odds against a Storm, it formed up and for some hours even reach Mayor Hurricane Status as a Cat 3 Hurricane with 100knots of sustained windspeeds.
but it had to size down a lot on diameter to get moving, did not last long on it's high powers, and then went down quickly to nothing.
the same tropical wave/Disturbance, which Danny came out of, under favorable conditions, would have been a Mayor Hurricane of even higher windforces and several times the size/diameter, unvulnerable to windhsear or dry air influences from the outside for days, so the same small thingy we just observed for a week would have been a exceptional monster.
if it also would have walked the same direction, is an other theme, as big storms get their steering/directioons from different steering patterns/winds than smaller weak systems do.
Mike
donP,
it contains Tropical Storm Force winds since the morning,
but to be declared a storm it needs to show a clear center swinging around.
to me it has such, too.
and it is improving by the hour.
i guess they just wait a bit to declare it right away a TS, instead of TD first and few hours later upgrade.
Mike
it contains Tropical Storm Force winds since the morning,
but to be declared a storm it needs to show a clear center swinging around.
to me it has such, too.
and it is improving by the hour.
i guess they just wait a bit to declare it right away a TS, instead of TD first and few hours later upgrade.
Mike
L98 may water the north coast.
Invest L98 is a large system.
I for one call it ERIKA already. :bunny:
The majority of the forecast paths take her north of the DR, which is welcome as far as the associated rain is concerned.
So, the remnants of DANNY may water the south (although I doubt that it will be much) and Erika the north.
Everybody happy?
donP
Invest L98 is a large system.
I for one call it ERIKA already. :bunny:
The majority of the forecast paths take her north of the DR, which is welcome as far as the associated rain is concerned.
So, the remnants of DANNY may water the south (although I doubt that it will be much) and Erika the north.
Everybody happy?
donP
the Danny rests still ahnd around teh smaller islands, to their west.
i don't know if anything reaches DR soil, there is not much water left from Danny anyways.
Erika tracking will be a race against the clock.
the system is large, but it also moves very fast forward, a bit up and down between 20-25mphr from the beginning.
it may slow down once a full rotation is moving a heck of waterloads around.
tracking is completely unreliable before a full storm is running it's thingy on full swing.
but by that time there will not be much time left before the first touch with Land, IF it finally moves over any Land.
in case the system forms a stable wide cyclone, which could resist dry air for a longer while than Danny,
then what ever come's out of it could be touch down at our soil as early as thursday of this week.
maybe it is swinging smoothly tomorrow, so the models get a better chance of a reliable tracking.
Mike
i don't know if anything reaches DR soil, there is not much water left from Danny anyways.
Erika tracking will be a race against the clock.
the system is large, but it also moves very fast forward, a bit up and down between 20-25mphr from the beginning.
it may slow down once a full rotation is moving a heck of waterloads around.
tracking is completely unreliable before a full storm is running it's thingy on full swing.
but by that time there will not be much time left before the first touch with Land, IF it finally moves over any Land.
in case the system forms a stable wide cyclone, which could resist dry air for a longer while than Danny,
then what ever come's out of it could be touch down at our soil as early as thursday of this week.
maybe it is swinging smoothly tomorrow, so the models get a better chance of a reliable tracking.
Mike
Tropical Storm Erika moves a wide area,
which will slow down the growing of powers.
it formed around 14"N, we will see in the during tomorrow, when passing the 50"W line, if it passed north of the 15thN on a wwnw heading, or if is stays a straight westward runner as it is right now.
it has not much time to start a fueled hurricane machine, i think it's own big size will hinder that it comes to high windforces.
we will have an other large wave leaving the african continent tomorrow, well more south around the 10thN, facing a nice wt pavement.
Mike
which will slow down the growing of powers.
it formed around 14"N, we will see in the during tomorrow, when passing the 50"W line, if it passed north of the 15thN on a wwnw heading, or if is stays a straight westward runner as it is right now.
it has not much time to start a fueled hurricane machine, i think it's own big size will hinder that it comes to high windforces.
we will have an other large wave leaving the african continent tomorrow, well more south around the 10thN, facing a nice wt pavement.
Mike
Speedy ERIKA
ERIKA is moving fast at 20 mph, as soon as Friday she'll be in our region.
A good part of the forecast cone is over the DR and at that time the storm may be developing into an H1 (but of course more so when over water).
It's still too early to be sure how far north she will pass.
Hopefully near enough to get the rain and far enough not to get too much of her wind force. :bunny:
donP
ERIKA is moving fast at 20 mph, as soon as Friday she'll be in our region.
A good part of the forecast cone is over the DR and at that time the storm may be developing into an H1 (but of course more so when over water).
It's still too early to be sure how far north she will pass.
Hopefully near enough to get the rain and far enough not to get too much of her wind force. :bunny:
donP
Showers in the Afternoon?
Not totally yet.
PR radar shows some good reflectivity over the neighbour island. If those clouds are not milked off completely there is a chance we might get some showers in Saman? this afternoon. :bunny:
Even the ONAMET mentirologists forecast some rain...
http://www.onamet.gov.do/
donP
Not totally yet.
PR radar shows some good reflectivity over the neighbour island. If those clouds are not milked off completely there is a chance we might get some showers in Saman? this afternoon. :bunny:
Even the ONAMET mentirologists forecast some rain...
http://www.onamet.gov.do/
donP
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