Spagati models predicticting that it will swing North of the island see https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11
They all seem to agree that it will miss the DR
They all seem to agree that it will miss the DR
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hurricane season 2017
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yes, the Spaghetti Models are in so seldom agreement for several days out in advance,
thats a nice thing, lol.
they show a heck of a roller coaster ride, turning it down towards the Islands and then up NW to miss it all to the NE of the northernost Islands.
that zigzack comes from a wide High over the NE'ern Atlantic, which will be the reason for the Southward movementthe more West Irma reaches, the farer away from the High, so it turns back to it's "natural" Tracking of WNW'wards.
you have to watch the Spaghetti Models on every run, every few hours, to follow up on changes.
their results rely on a thousand influencing factors, but the one significant single factor is the SteeringMovement due the High.
where ever the forecasted shifts of the High change, there the Models will right away chage their lines accodingly.
the 2nd single significant influencing factor is the Intensification.
the forecasted Tracking relies on a certain power the Storm will reach and on a certain rate of intensification, because a very strong storm get's influenced by other steerin currents than a weaker storm does.
so every miscalculation of the intensification/powers for seveal days ahead of time, can change the Models drastically fom just one run to the other.
here is a Map where the High's and Low's ove the Atlantic can be seen.
Mike
thats a nice thing, lol.
they show a heck of a roller coaster ride, turning it down towards the Islands and then up NW to miss it all to the NE of the northernost Islands.
that zigzack comes from a wide High over the NE'ern Atlantic, which will be the reason for the Southward movementthe more West Irma reaches, the farer away from the High, so it turns back to it's "natural" Tracking of WNW'wards.
you have to watch the Spaghetti Models on every run, every few hours, to follow up on changes.
their results rely on a thousand influencing factors, but the one significant single factor is the SteeringMovement due the High.
where ever the forecasted shifts of the High change, there the Models will right away chage their lines accodingly.
the 2nd single significant influencing factor is the Intensification.
the forecasted Tracking relies on a certain power the Storm will reach and on a certain rate of intensification, because a very strong storm get's influenced by other steerin currents than a weaker storm does.
so every miscalculation of the intensification/powers for seveal days ahead of time, can change the Models drastically fom just one run to the other.
here is a Map where the High's and Low's ove the Atlantic can be seen.
Mike
yes, the Spaghetti Models are in so seldom agreement for several days out in advance,
thats a nice thing, lol.
they show a heck of a roller coaster ride, turning it down towards the Islands and then up NW to miss it all to the NE of the northernost Islands.
that zigzack comes from a wide High over the NE'ern Atlantic, which will be the reason for the Southward movementthe more West Irma reaches, the farer away from the High, so it turns back to it's "natural" Tracking of WNW'wards.
you have to watch the Spaghetti Models on every run, every few hours, to follow up on changes.
their results rely on a thousand influencing factors, but the one significant single factor is the SteeringMovement due the High.
where ever the forecasted shifts of the High change, there the Models will right away chage their lines accodingly.
the 2nd single significant influencing factor is the Intensification.
the forecasted Tracking relies on a certain power the Storm will reach and on a certain rate of intensification, because a very strong storm get's influenced by other steerin currents than a weaker storm does.
so every miscalculation of the intensification/powers for seveal days ahead of time, can change the Models drastically fom just one run to the other.
here is a Map where the High's and Low's ove the Atlantic can be seen.
Mike
I love your take on the spaghetti models.. I figure by Sunday we should know more on how this storm is going to track. STX Hurricane hunters went out this morning and reported that the winds were just under hurricane strength. They figure it to be a cat 1 storm before the next flight reaches it later this morning.
yes, it is powerful and quick intensificating.
i see it also as a Hurrican and nodoubt that we will have a Major Hurricane on the Maps East of our Island.
still far out but on still uncertain Westward Moves.
almost done with some other work, will try what my tracking comes up with today.
til Sunday all are safe to watch, then the tracking should show clearer.
it is the Atlantic High which makes the tracking forecast a weird unusual uop and down.
such is a dangerous influence, because the High could move more or less south than predicted, quicker or slower, it also could be much stronger or weaker than predicted, but All Trackin shown at the Moment goes with the Forecast of the big Atlantic High over the NE Atlantic.
the slightest miscalculation of the High's strength/shifts/diection/duration would mean that Irma wanders completely different ways than predicted, because the influenceof a strong High is the prime factor of input data fo the tracking models.
what looks the easier tasks on Irma is the Intensification.
this Storm is running very good conditions to grow powers quick and it is already perfectly compact organized, so the tiny amounts of dry air masses on the path will be swallowed like nothing, they will not knock down or destroy such well formed Storm. Irma will sue continue to grow stronger by the hours and should bea Major Hurricane by this weekend, sunday would be the actual guess for a Cat4 Cyclone somewhere East of the Islands, this years highest poers over the Highway so far.
fingers crossed that the tracking researches show it to miss the Islands on their NE, a few days of some clouds and lighter rains and winds and heavy destructive storm surge is enough to take while passin by there on the way to the Bahamas and USA.
we def do not wanna deal with Irmain the stretchy small Caribbean Sea over hottest waters reaching very deep, it will be too big to find a safe spot anywhere with the Caribbean then.
Mike
Irma is Hurricane now and it looks like it is headed toward us...
unless the Models show a straight direction/heading, the headings are highly uncertain.
it is too early for worries.
collecting data here for tracking, in a few hours it should be complete to put it together for a "guess".
before the weekend we will anyways not get a sure tracking.
there was no doubt that Irma becomes a Hurricane.
there is from my side no doubt that it will continue to grow fast and become a Major Hurricane within max 3 days from now.
the open question is Where will it go to after the weekend?
Mike
haha.
hey, getting lost on a nice abandoned beach with a stocked ice cooler pushed ashore there,
is not the worst way to get lost in my own lil thristy mind, lol.
time for a ride to get the Princess from school.
back home later the tracking stuff should go complete.
Mike
Meteorologist in USA, thinks decent probability of it hitting PR/DR
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago
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If I were @POTUS would be making contingency for Puerto Rico, US Virgin islands. Our gvt should be on war footing with
the wx next 2 weeks
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago
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Would be getting ready to airlift supplies into PR and Virgin islands before the fact if my track is right.Slow mover, so could
start Sunday
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago
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Major hurricanes hitting Hispaniola have trouble regaining intensity by US coast. Gulf, like Ike different story.
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago
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If I were @POTUS would be making contingency for Puerto Rico, US Virgin islands. Our gvt should be on war footing with
the wx next 2 weeks
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago
More
Would be getting ready to airlift supplies into PR and Virgin islands before the fact if my track is right.Slow mover, so could
start Sunday
Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago
More
Major hurricanes hitting Hispaniola have trouble regaining intensity by US coast. Gulf, like Ike different story.
Irma is Hurricane now and it looks like it is headed toward us...
Too early to know. Computer models are very good within 5 days.
Storm 11 Irma is already running over 110mphr maximum windspeeds and over a wide area considering the youth of the Storm, we will have a Mayor Cat3 late afternoon today and it will continue to raise the bar constantly.
as far as Powers go this storm has at tis moment nothing bothering/slowing down intensification etc on it's path,
looks like this one will go to the maximum Mother Nature set as a limit fo Tropical Storm Machines,
and that is for a Storm still out there somewhere East of us when reaching the top powers.
Cat1-3 are powerful Storms who's winds cause damage to many kind of structures.
Cat4 powers cause damage to most manmade structures.
Cat5 powers are sure damaging any kinda manmade building receiving those windspeeds of over 70m/s, over 136Knots for 6 continuously blowing seconds or more.
we keep watching that Tracking, but the trueth is that we have to be patient and wait a couple more days,
because til then it could change extremely with any influencing factor dying down/changing power of influence/changing direction of influence etc.
Mike
as far as Powers go this storm has at tis moment nothing bothering/slowing down intensification etc on it's path,
looks like this one will go to the maximum Mother Nature set as a limit fo Tropical Storm Machines,
and that is for a Storm still out there somewhere East of us when reaching the top powers.
Cat1-3 are powerful Storms who's winds cause damage to many kind of structures.
Cat4 powers cause damage to most manmade structures.
Cat5 powers are sure damaging any kinda manmade building receiving those windspeeds of over 70m/s, over 136Knots for 6 continuously blowing seconds or more.
we keep watching that Tracking, but the trueth is that we have to be patient and wait a couple more days,
because til then it could change extremely with any influencing factor dying down/changing power of influence/changing direction of influence etc.
Mike
and we have the next strong wave over water off West Africa,
a southern lane running by early quick estimates,
so it will not get negatively influenced by the powers of Irma
but can take advantage of a perfectly well paved wet and dry air free highway on a southern tracking.
Mike
a southern lane running by early quick estimates,
so it will not get negatively influenced by the powers of Irma
but can take advantage of a perfectly well paved wet and dry air free highway on a southern tracking.
Mike
today's model runs.
keep in mind that most runs been 8AM this moprning AST.
pay attention to the Red Dot NHC Run,
sure we Islanders will not like it, but it is the most actual run at 11AM AST from this Noon.
Mike
keep in mind that most runs been 8AM this moprning AST.
pay attention to the Red Dot NHC Run,
sure we Islanders will not like it, but it is the most actual run at 11AM AST from this Noon.
Mike
half a dozen models publsihed their 2PM(1800GMT) runs.
those agree on a final path further away NE of the Islands.
but as i said before, this tracking stuff can change very significantly and very often
until the length of the steering infuence of the Atlanti High is not determined/it's influence finished.
Mike
those agree on a final path further away NE of the Islands.
but as i said before, this tracking stuff can change very significantly and very often
until the length of the steering infuence of the Atlanti High is not determined/it's influence finished.
Mike
as of 4:30PM this afternoon
we have officially a Cat3 Major Hurricane East of the Islands.
Heading is tracking WNW on 10knots/12mphr forward speed.
central pressure keeps dropping, the Storm keeps intesifying.
no defense shields of any kind on it's Path.
the outcome of this Storm lies solely in the hands of Tracking/Heading.
it will be big and powerful, the big question is just: WHERE??
Mike
we have officially a Cat3 Major Hurricane East of the Islands.
Heading is tracking WNW on 10knots/12mphr forward speed.
central pressure keeps dropping, the Storm keeps intesifying.
no defense shields of any kind on it's Path.
the outcome of this Storm lies solely in the hands of Tracking/Heading.
it will be big and powerful, the big question is just: WHERE??
Mike
we shall see.........but i dont like what i am looking at today........windy.com has it running over the north of DR and the islands.........not gonna be pretty.
55.0W16.0N is my personal set deadline/latest point to start a Turn towards WNW to make it for a interesting action week but on the still safe side for Paradise.
at the moment, but that is of course a long range tracking outlook with all known uncertainties,
the Point of Turn calculated by NOAA is 52.2W/16.1N.
I like the NOAA calculation much more than my own set "last point of Hope",
as it would leave us on the safer side, further away/less blown over.
everything further East and/or further North, would bring it further away from us on a bypass NE of the Islands.
everything W and/or S of that Point would not be named Funny by anyone nor any means.
patience is the name of the game, patience.
Mike
at the moment, but that is of course a long range tracking outlook with all known uncertainties,
the Point of Turn calculated by NOAA is 52.2W/16.1N.
I like the NOAA calculation much more than my own set "last point of Hope",
as it would leave us on the safer side, further away/less blown over.
everything further East and/or further North, would bring it further away from us on a bypass NE of the Islands.
everything W and/or S of that Point would not be named Funny by anyone nor any means.
patience is the name of the game, patience.
Mike
What all this means is that it is time to be prepared for a big hurricane.
Here is a good explanatory video on Irma as it moves towards the Caribbean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=471&v=rqFlElZazac
Here is a good explanatory video on Irma as it moves towards the Caribbean.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=471&v=rqFlElZazac
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