Good morning Cyberspace world.
any sh.itty pants to clean up or heart attacks to report because people watch sh.it on Foxx or CNN and believe what they hear there?
today's morning update is easy and simple,
No Sigificant changes on anything!!!
as stated yesterday a thousand times, it is too early to get a ccurate Tracking of Irma for next week,
is is simply too early and the influencing factors of significance do still not exist,
because that forecasted tracking goes by "expected" but still not existing conditions north of the Storm.
as i wrote yesterday, the name of the game is Patience.
we will not know anything beore tomorrow noon and maybe not before sunday evening.
til then everything on tracking is very vague speculation.
as they did twice yesterday, NHC over night again moved their 5 days forecast point some miles further North again,
that means again further away from the caribbean Islands.
but i did not hear a single guys/gal happy about that, i only hear negative sould on a he.lls trip grabbing every single piece of negativity they can lay hand or ear on.
what a rotten world.
you have to get a life, guys, lñearn how to enjoy life and grab the good moments.
we are on a beautiful week with perfect beach weather and this weekend should provide exactly the same.
how can people be so stu to panic about something for next wek's ending and due that forget to enjoy the good week we just passed?
Rant over, i really don't get it how humanity can be such a bunch of TV rottened negativity searching garbage.
the good:
the NHC moved the 5 days waypoint for Irma again some miles north, away from the caribbean, a trend that runs continuously since the tracking started.
the most reliable tracking model is the European ECWMF,
but its runs show no agreement with itself of any kind.
the simple reason is that the main influencing factors for teh Storm's Tracking do still not exist, so they are given as input to the model runs in different strengths and as different times of start/endings of the occurances.
until now the model does not show anything reliable, it will take at least an other 24-48hrs before it will show the real close to be 5 days Tracking for Irma.
that final tracking may be close to the same as shown now, it could also point in exactly the opposite directions.
while the american model is know for inaccuracy on Tracking forecasts fo more than 48hrs out,
it's accuracy is not that it would provide the wrong headings, it is juts not bring a Storm exactly on the point after 5 days looking into the future.
for now, following both, the american model did it's job for the 24 and 48hrs outlooks very well
so for now the general directions pointed out by the american model are the most exact we have available to look on.
by now, all forecasts call for a Cat4-5 Irma missing the Caribbean Islands to their NE, on a close Pass which will bring a powerful southern portion of the Storm over several Islands and flooding rains over all the northern Caribbean with very strong winds. that is what everybody on a Island in the Northern Caribe should await for late next week/next weekend.
once the tracking models get accurate/in agreement, that basic outlook of effects will shift.
it can shift to the better by bringing the Styorm on a bypas further north
and it can shift to the worth bring the Storm closer or even straight towards the Islands to hit anywhere from the US Virgin Islands down to Barbados and anywhere in between.
by now it is senseless to run panic about smething that doesnt exist.
it is Huricane season, so i take it as a given fact that everybody has the house all the time ready for such event with the basics for such event on stock.
and unless you are a person who would fly out to run away from a Storm, thereis nothing else to do, no need to panic ahead of time. when it comes you will be here, you have no other way to go, so take life as it is, it's factual.
Irma is on construction, as awaited. Outer Bands are cut back, for that closer to the Center the TS Activity zone is more compact, more powerful. a new haircut that looks good.
til this point, this Storm is ingeneered perfectly, no cheap dominican or american construction labour, somebody built the real deal.
Enjoy the Weekend and on Sunday afternon coffee/Drink!!! we may have somethin reliable to count on.
time to hit the Road now,
weather is much too good to not take a morning run on the dirt bike before i get the Princess from school.
Mike
gre:
