I do not like when females are in trouble but in the case of Irma: "Take that bi...!"
total agreement, take that, Biach.
anyways, Storms are not females or males, they are neutral, a "IT", even that they get female and male names.
Mike
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total agreement, take that, Biach.
anyways, Storms are not females or males, they are neutral, a "IT", even that they get female and male names.
Mike
we are by now even on the most extreme outside line of the Cones spread for TS Force winds and just for a touch of the Northshores as the worst case scenario, if the Storm would stay on the highest error tracking on the most southern line of the Cone, then maybe TS Force could touch for a moment or 2 somewhere along the North.
in other words, even far away, in Tracking we Trust, Irma is History and has to write it's History Books Stories on some other Soil, we will not be part of it's Memoires.(fock da spelling).
by Tuesday morning, when on the 2nd Coffee on the Veranda, watching that beautiful calm Beach of mine,
Irma will already be on a Heading WWNW, and all will be fine, some sixers opened somewhere on the Island and the end of Irma celebrated everywhere before it would have had a beginning.
been on the road today, home just 30 minutes now, and the Powers and Tracking Data is a nice lecture with my coffee.
kicked your Azz, Biach.
Irma is a struggling and heavy bothered Storm.
the eyewall cycles are the wound point for Strong Cyclones, when the Walls are down any kinda shut can get injected and disturb the formerly perfect rhytm of a Monster Machine.
Irma received Dry Air into the Core, those Biaches do not like that kinda treatment and Irma took it very bad.
It shrinked on size, lost significant powers and also lost on the formerly perfect round construction.
all the beauty of a perfect Storm is gone, all chances to become The One are missed, at least in case of the Caribbean Islands.
maximum sustained winds are by the NHC shown as only 110mphr on a 15mphr Forward Motion.
what does that mean for the DR:
given the predicted Path, Irma would pass our Northshores in a movement from SE-NW,
so the DR Northcoast would be on the left side of the Storm, which is the weaker side of Irma's eyewall powers.
in case of the actual powers, 110mphr max Winds, which are present on the ride side of the Eye as the max powers felt/measured at the Wall's heaviest Thunderstorms, that means the Left side of the Center/the left eyewall portion runs only 80mphr Winds to be felt/to do destruction etc. and that is the left side's actual MAXIMUM if the left Eyewall would touch Land.
sure the real arriving powers have to be calculated shortly prior to arrival/bypass.
Irma will very likely reintensify again and i would await it to be a mid to high range Cat3 on Tuesday, a Cat4 Force is not out of the possibilities. a important factor is to keep up the quick forward Motion, it takes very significant powers away from Irma's left wallside, the side towards the DR, we give a fock on what kinda powers run on it's stronger right side.
the best off all new updates:
the Tracking, we Islanders love Irma's Tracking.
it does not look like any touch of anything anywhere near our Paradise.
it is very likely that the Storm is passing well far enough out so we will not get anything bothering from any winds.
we have to look out how far some outer bands reach towards the S and SW or anything far off the Center in the wake on the SE, there is always a possibility of heavy rainbands which could trigger some flooding and mudslides at the well know locations, where such happens every once in a while all around the year.
by now such far away bands are not to be spotted anywhere.
nothing gives any reason to be worried, so let's fire up those BBQ's and take care that all beers and drinkets die before they get a chance to become warm.
somewhre Monday night should be the last "Turn", by Tuesday morning we should be able to measure exactly in which distance to which locations the Storm will pass the Island during the following days.
everybody around the Bahamas and anywhere on the US East Shores, where ever from the FL Keys up to the Canuck Border, should carfeully observe the Strength, stability and Movement of the strong High over the US Mainland moving Seawards, as that High will be your Life Safer my friends. without that Ridge Irma would stay on a WWNW Tracking from Tuesday til Touchdown, as a Storm which by actual forecasts will run fantastic conditions for further intensification on all the way.
I really love how those guys calculated so precisely the powers of that Eastern Atlantic High,
exactly as forecasted Irma is wandering along it's southern Ridge, pixel by pixel on the Maps, since it was born as a lil Cloudcover somewhere near Africa. Impressive shut.
we can take an other look tonight, but the actual stuff is simply nice news.
have a great weekend y'all.
Mike
in other words, even far away, in Tracking we Trust, Irma is History and has to write it's History Books Stories on some other Soil, we will not be part of it's Memoires.(fock da spelling).
by Tuesday morning, when on the 2nd Coffee on the Veranda, watching that beautiful calm Beach of mine,
Irma will already be on a Heading WWNW, and all will be fine, some sixers opened somewhere on the Island and the end of Irma celebrated everywhere before it would have had a beginning.
been on the road today, home just 30 minutes now, and the Powers and Tracking Data is a nice lecture with my coffee.
kicked your Azz, Biach.
Irma is a struggling and heavy bothered Storm.
the eyewall cycles are the wound point for Strong Cyclones, when the Walls are down any kinda shut can get injected and disturb the formerly perfect rhytm of a Monster Machine.
Irma received Dry Air into the Core, those Biaches do not like that kinda treatment and Irma took it very bad.
It shrinked on size, lost significant powers and also lost on the formerly perfect round construction.
all the beauty of a perfect Storm is gone, all chances to become The One are missed, at least in case of the Caribbean Islands.
maximum sustained winds are by the NHC shown as only 110mphr on a 15mphr Forward Motion.
what does that mean for the DR:
given the predicted Path, Irma would pass our Northshores in a movement from SE-NW,
so the DR Northcoast would be on the left side of the Storm, which is the weaker side of Irma's eyewall powers.
in case of the actual powers, 110mphr max Winds, which are present on the ride side of the Eye as the max powers felt/measured at the Wall's heaviest Thunderstorms, that means the Left side of the Center/the left eyewall portion runs only 80mphr Winds to be felt/to do destruction etc. and that is the left side's actual MAXIMUM if the left Eyewall would touch Land.
sure the real arriving powers have to be calculated shortly prior to arrival/bypass.
Irma will very likely reintensify again and i would await it to be a mid to high range Cat3 on Tuesday, a Cat4 Force is not out of the possibilities. a important factor is to keep up the quick forward Motion, it takes very significant powers away from Irma's left wallside, the side towards the DR, we give a fock on what kinda powers run on it's stronger right side.
the best off all new updates:
the Tracking, we Islanders love Irma's Tracking.
it does not look like any touch of anything anywhere near our Paradise.
it is very likely that the Storm is passing well far enough out so we will not get anything bothering from any winds.
we have to look out how far some outer bands reach towards the S and SW or anything far off the Center in the wake on the SE, there is always a possibility of heavy rainbands which could trigger some flooding and mudslides at the well know locations, where such happens every once in a while all around the year.
by now such far away bands are not to be spotted anywhere.
nothing gives any reason to be worried, so let's fire up those BBQ's and take care that all beers and drinkets die before they get a chance to become warm.
somewhre Monday night should be the last "Turn", by Tuesday morning we should be able to measure exactly in which distance to which locations the Storm will pass the Island during the following days.
everybody around the Bahamas and anywhere on the US East Shores, where ever from the FL Keys up to the Canuck Border, should carfeully observe the Strength, stability and Movement of the strong High over the US Mainland moving Seawards, as that High will be your Life Safer my friends. without that Ridge Irma would stay on a WWNW Tracking from Tuesday til Touchdown, as a Storm which by actual forecasts will run fantastic conditions for further intensification on all the way.
I really love how those guys calculated so precisely the powers of that Eastern Atlantic High,
exactly as forecasted Irma is wandering along it's southern Ridge, pixel by pixel on the Maps, since it was born as a lil Cloudcover somewhere near Africa. Impressive shut.
we can take an other look tonight, but the actual stuff is simply nice news.
have a great weekend y'all.
Mike
jsut so we stay on complete info about all the stuff happening somewhere in the Basin, Storm wise:
Disturbance1, the clouds out there on the southern highway lanes,
will very sure become Storm number 12 somewhere when Irma closes in to pass our Northshores.
duringthe weekend big development is very unlikely or at least very very slow to await,
but next week ahead conditions on the forecasts for the southern highway look for most part in favor of a Storm Development, even far from ideal or perfect.
that Disturbance is a southern lane runner, they usually point slightly north of the Southamerican Continent,
running with the Trade Winds/Easterlies towards the souther/SouthCentral Islands of the Belt.
so once Irma is done on our side we may very likely not get bored on the weather front,
as we all know that the most dangers come from the SE'ern Caribbean Sea NW'wards.
Mike
Disturbance1, the clouds out there on the southern highway lanes,
will very sure become Storm number 12 somewhere when Irma closes in to pass our Northshores.
duringthe weekend big development is very unlikely or at least very very slow to await,
but next week ahead conditions on the forecasts for the southern highway look for most part in favor of a Storm Development, even far from ideal or perfect.
that Disturbance is a southern lane runner, they usually point slightly north of the Southamerican Continent,
running with the Trade Winds/Easterlies towards the souther/SouthCentral Islands of the Belt.
so once Irma is done on our side we may very likely not get bored on the weather front,
as we all know that the most dangers come from the SE'ern Caribbean Sea NW'wards.
Mike
here's a nice detailed explanation of Irma and where it's going with visuals
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ocnoepCHK1I&feature=youtu.be
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ocnoepCHK1I&feature=youtu.be
thats the best and easiest to understand explanation about a hurricanes tracking i ever so, really great.
of course i like that it agrees with the Fisherman, lol.
who does not understand whats goping on out there, after watching this one, can not be helped.
thanks for sharing
Mike
poor Irma feels a bit sick this evening, it is choking on dry air, as the not very high windshear on it's NW seems to be enough to continue injections of dry air pieces, lol.
the NW of the Storm looks loke somebody cut of a lil piece due that.
so part of the northern quadrant blows now a bit further away on the E now, good to see on the Water Vapor view of the floater here.
no unexpected changes to observe so far, it is running it's predicted path
and a WWSW'erly Heading and should continue in that direction the next couple days.
then we will be at the Point of Kick Azz or puuuuuff fly by out there for the Northern Leeward islands,
as they are the ones closest to the action, they are still within boundaries where even Hurricane force wind could be received.
they are used to such situations and sure will be ready for it, in case it walks bad.
No News from the weather front this evening, which is in case of the DR good news so far.
Mike
the NW of the Storm looks loke somebody cut of a lil piece due that.
so part of the northern quadrant blows now a bit further away on the E now, good to see on the Water Vapor view of the floater here.
no unexpected changes to observe so far, it is running it's predicted path
and a WWSW'erly Heading and should continue in that direction the next couple days.
then we will be at the Point of Kick Azz or puuuuuff fly by out there for the Northern Leeward islands,
as they are the ones closest to the action, they are still within boundaries where even Hurricane force wind could be received.
they are used to such situations and sure will be ready for it, in case it walks bad.
No News from the weather front this evening, which is in case of the DR good news so far.
Mike
Hoping jstarebel has made the move. Talking to friends down there and the preparations are full steam ahead and they expect hurricane warnings in the next day. Been there done that with a Cat 4 on a small island....not nice even if it was not a direct hit. Stay safe. HWRF runs over St Barts/SXM/Anguilla.
All models and trends suggesting a shift more to south and west.
HWRF (NOAA) 7pm run is not good for the islands and await Euro at 11pm which will probably also show the flattening of the run as first indicated in the 5pm NHC update - yep DR back in cone. HWRF 7pm suggest this thing slides off north shore and into TCI and Bahamas as a big one.
GFS suggests a major hit for New York in a week...but models are models.
I follow Weather Underground closely and NHC and enjoy the insights given by Mike too and recall he said wait until Sunday to gauge the effect of the trough for starters. I hope tomorrow yields better news for my friends in the islands.
All models and trends suggesting a shift more to south and west.
HWRF (NOAA) 7pm run is not good for the islands and await Euro at 11pm which will probably also show the flattening of the run as first indicated in the 5pm NHC update - yep DR back in cone. HWRF 7pm suggest this thing slides off north shore and into TCI and Bahamas as a big one.
GFS suggests a major hit for New York in a week...but models are models.
I follow Weather Underground closely and NHC and enjoy the insights given by Mike too and recall he said wait until Sunday to gauge the effect of the trough for starters. I hope tomorrow yields better news for my friends in the islands.
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jstarebel sure is fine.
he always monitos all things and always moved with brain.
he will be somewhere south, Not at the Doctor's on St Thomas today.
the last years the European Model Salad prooved to be the far best over the americans when it comes to Tracking.
it will be the closest one to the final real Track again this time and the one which told it farthest ahead of time.
but this time only as a wide bunch of unagreed spaghettis, the numerous diferent Hihs and Lows up N and NW did not give a chance for agreements, as each little shift/change of strength of just one of the many systems makes a diffewrence of many miles in one or the other direction of Irma, and such few miles finally can make all the difference between a haircut by a Major Hurricane's Eyewall or a lil rainy great Hurricane Watch BBQ on a beach watching the thing passing by 100 miles further out.
tomorrow night we shall know more and the Turn back WWNW is now shown for Monday Noon as the earliest, that's the not so nice point. I awaited it to be already turned by Monday morning at the 2nd coffee time.
2-4 hrs later or God Forbid even moe hours later, will make a huge difference on the proximity for the Pass on our North.
Mike
Further shift south in the 11pm NHC advisory. A little more of the cone into DR this time.
Euro model run might change things by morning. Ridge is apparently stronger.
NHC 11pm
The subtropical ridge building to the north of Irma has been
steering the hurricane toward the west or 260 degrees at 12
kt. The ridge is forecast to amplify even more, and this flow
pattern will force the hurricane to dive west-southwestward for a
couple of days. Irma should then begin to gain latitude once it
reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 3 days. The
confidence in the track forecast is high for the next 72 hours since
all of the reliable guidance is basically on top of each other.
After 3 days, when the hurricane is forecast to be approaching the
northern Leeward Islands, the guidance envelope spreads out and
becomes bounded by the southernmost tracks of the HWRF, HCCA and the
ECMWF models, and by the northernmost GFS and UK models. The
confidence beyond 3 days is then much lower. Tonight's NHC forecast
was adjusted a just little to the south of the previous one due to
another small shift of the guidance envelope.
Euro model run might change things by morning. Ridge is apparently stronger.
NHC 11pm
The subtropical ridge building to the north of Irma has been
steering the hurricane toward the west or 260 degrees at 12
kt. The ridge is forecast to amplify even more, and this flow
pattern will force the hurricane to dive west-southwestward for a
couple of days. Irma should then begin to gain latitude once it
reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 3 days. The
confidence in the track forecast is high for the next 72 hours since
all of the reliable guidance is basically on top of each other.
After 3 days, when the hurricane is forecast to be approaching the
northern Leeward Islands, the guidance envelope spreads out and
becomes bounded by the southernmost tracks of the HWRF, HCCA and the
ECMWF models, and by the northernmost GFS and UK models. The
confidence beyond 3 days is then much lower. Tonight's NHC forecast
was adjusted a just little to the south of the previous one due to
another small shift of the guidance envelope.
I'm praying for my friends in the islands.
This monster is supposed to make its turn at about 17N 55W in a couple of days and yet it has already dropped to about18N and is slipping south of west all the time.
And at every new NHC bulletin the damn cone slips further south too.
NHC average the model information so the likes of GFS keeps the medium track north.
I am beginning to worry this is a bang bang bang bang and bang storm. Leewards, some side impact to PR and DR, TCI Bahamas and then mainland USA.....maybe a complete mf and maybe a big beast too.
Praying for some better news tomorrow.
This monster is supposed to make its turn at about 17N 55W in a couple of days and yet it has already dropped to about18N and is slipping south of west all the time.
And at every new NHC bulletin the damn cone slips further south too.
NHC average the model information so the likes of GFS keeps the medium track north.
I am beginning to worry this is a bang bang bang bang and bang storm. Leewards, some side impact to PR and DR, TCI Bahamas and then mainland USA.....maybe a complete mf and maybe a big beast too.
Praying for some better news tomorrow.
The fear-mongers are out in force.
http://sonsoflibertymedia.com/categ...hurricane-history-wipe-entire-cities-off-map/
http://sonsoflibertymedia.com/categ...hurricane-history-wipe-entire-cities-off-map/
NHC 11am advisory forecast discussion states this:
The possibility of direct impacts from Irma in Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas later this week is increasing.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.
NHC 11am cone virtually the same as the 5am one and shows that most of DR is in the cone including south coast all the way to SD
The possibility of direct impacts from Irma in Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas later this week is increasing.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.
NHC 11am cone virtually the same as the 5am one and shows that most of DR is in the cone including south coast all the way to SD
the predicted Tracking does not look nice at all for the Leewards, PR and DR,
but nothing is set in stone til later tomorrow, when Irma finally really turns.
it is all about the timing/position of the turn.
and we can do nothing than to watch it very close and act accordingly to the advisoies taht will be issued tomorrow Noon ahead.
the DR is by the actual tracking on a Front seat for a will ride.
we are not in for a straight hit, but such big Storm, which will continue to grow, thatclose off the shores, means hyeaviest winds for a extreme long time period and it means also Islandwide heaviest flooding rainfalls.
Irma carries strong Rainbands reaching out long distances from the Center.
we all have to stay on Alert/Observation Mode and once turned we have to follow the Advisories for our specific Area/Region.
I guess we will get over here just the usual, a couple days with heavy clouds, strong blowing breeze and rains on and off without dangerous forces of those.
but it is all speculation,
Today Nobody can tell what will happen with PR and DR later this week and next weekend.
there will not be reliable Tracking until the "TURN" is done and the Storm is running a constant Straight line to what ever choosen direction, which then will allow to calculate well exactly the Distance it will come within our proximity.
it "can" come very close, but we have to wait to know.
for now,
Today is Sunday, a beautiful perfect Sunny Sunday over here on the East.
enjoy it as you would enjoy any othersunny sunday, hit da Beach, take your children out for some Icecream, makeyour neighbours wife happy, sit in the shade of some trees watching the Ocean with a cold drink, all that nice stuff we always do on sunny sunday.
Mike
but nothing is set in stone til later tomorrow, when Irma finally really turns.
it is all about the timing/position of the turn.
and we can do nothing than to watch it very close and act accordingly to the advisoies taht will be issued tomorrow Noon ahead.
the DR is by the actual tracking on a Front seat for a will ride.
we are not in for a straight hit, but such big Storm, which will continue to grow, thatclose off the shores, means hyeaviest winds for a extreme long time period and it means also Islandwide heaviest flooding rainfalls.
Irma carries strong Rainbands reaching out long distances from the Center.
we all have to stay on Alert/Observation Mode and once turned we have to follow the Advisories for our specific Area/Region.
I guess we will get over here just the usual, a couple days with heavy clouds, strong blowing breeze and rains on and off without dangerous forces of those.
but it is all speculation,
Today Nobody can tell what will happen with PR and DR later this week and next weekend.
there will not be reliable Tracking until the "TURN" is done and the Storm is running a constant Straight line to what ever choosen direction, which then will allow to calculate well exactly the Distance it will come within our proximity.
it "can" come very close, but we have to wait to know.
for now,
Today is Sunday, a beautiful perfect Sunny Sunday over here on the East.
enjoy it as you would enjoy any othersunny sunday, hit da Beach, take your children out for some Icecream, makeyour neighbours wife happy, sit in the shade of some trees watching the Ocean with a cold drink, all that nice stuff we always do on sunny sunday.
Mike
No.
for Irma i will not buy plywood, unless they would show tomorrow that it turned to walk straight over PR and continue to do a 2nd landfall right here at the Cape.
the only times we used (and needed) Plywood in PC was for Jeanne, a straight hitter on the Cape.
thereare by this time no indicators that Irma could brin Hurricane Force winds to PC,
and so long we do not need plywood for concrete houses with well fitted in windows.
Mike
Oh yes I will make my Tuesday Dr. Appt. I did make my move yesterday. Arrived St Thomas mangrove lagoon at 4am this morning. It's going to be a 5 anchor set with lines to the mangroves as well. I rode out Marilyn here, so I figured this was my best option. Our company is changing insurance companies, and I just can't go another two years fighting a new insurance company to cough up $94,500. for Hep C medication. I'm too close with this one. A drug test showing I'm not a IV drug user, or drink alcohol is all that's left, and and they have to cough up the dough. I'll pay a total of $45.00. $15.00 per 30 day prescription. FYI, this is how much they charge for meds that cure. No profit in cures, and this drug costs $10.00 to make that sell for over $1,125. per pill. It's called harvoni. http://www.hepatitisc.uw.edu/page/treatment/drugs/ledipasvir-sofosbuvir.
Sorry that I hijacked this thread, but some would think me crazy to do what I'm doing, and I wanted to share my reasoning as to why. As to the storm, It looks like if it tracks as forecast that St. Kitts and Nevis are going to take direct hits with the eye passing just north of St. Maarten and Anguilla. St Thomas will definitely get hurricane force winds I figure with lots of free water for my tanks. Time to reduce the windage on board including sails, solar panels, wind generator and anything else I can remove. Here is some storm animation to share with yall. It comes up on Saturday, and you can change it from day to day to see the different changes in the canes path. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=21.2;-50.2;3&l=wind&t=20170905/18
Sorry that I hijacked this thread, but some would think me crazy to do what I'm doing, and I wanted to share my reasoning as to why. As to the storm, It looks like if it tracks as forecast that St. Kitts and Nevis are going to take direct hits with the eye passing just north of St. Maarten and Anguilla. St Thomas will definitely get hurricane force winds I figure with lots of free water for my tanks. Time to reduce the windage on board including sails, solar panels, wind generator and anything else I can remove. Here is some storm animation to share with yall. It comes up on Saturday, and you can change it from day to day to see the different changes in the canes path. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=21.2;-50.2;3&l=wind&t=20170905/18
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