hurricane season 2017

[MikeFisher]

the Ridge covering the SE of the USA shows a Low Pressure Breach just West of Florida.
that could be a safer, as it offers Irma a easy to go path just off the western Floridian Coast
to move S to N along the FL Westshores over Gulf Waters.
let's hope for that whole in da wall to stay open.
at this moment a Turn northwards priro to the Florida Straight/to stay over water East of Florida
looks very unlikely by predicted conditions for the next 48hrs.
but it is long range predictions, they shift and change all the time.
ofcourse the Turn early and move northwards along the FL Eastshores is still a possibility,
it just goes less likely by actual steering pattern forecasts.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Thanks Mike,
I spent these past days worrying about kids in Punta Cana and Sosua and they got the good turn. So now I'm sitting in Florida knowing the monster is coming and hoping for a turn. Ironic.
I'm now getting the texts saying Cuidate that I was sending earlier this week.

take good care my friend.
this can reach any location in FL.
FL is small, a short time difference of just one of the influencing steering powers can make a huge difference as to for which parts of Fl will be in most danger.
the pros will not know if it turns along the FL Eastshores, right over Land from S-N or along the Westshores il the last minute/til it turns, as the difference between those 3 Paths is only a matter of a few miles.
wish you all the best.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

the NHC did not publish a 12PM Tracking Update on Irma.
i was happy to gte that during it's approach and passing of the DR all night long, everyfull hours.

Mike

 

[Marilyn]

this can reach any location in FL.
FL is small, a short time difference of just one of the influencing steering powers can make a huge difference as to for which parts of Fl will be in most danger.
the pros will not know if it turns along the FL Eastshores, right over Land from S-N or along the Westshores il the last minute/til it turns, as the difference between those 3 Paths is only a matter of a few miles.
wish you all the best.

Mike

Thanks for keeping us updated and ahead of the game Mike, I also have my daughter and her husband in Miami so I am officially very worried, they spent 10 hours on the road last night moving at 3MPH and finally arrived in Gainesville, FL around 5 AM, with their two dogs, but now I see that Irma's eye will cut through the heart of Florida so I'm not sure she's safe where she is. According to the house' owner it can stand cat. 2 hurricane force and they are not in a flood-prone area, but I'm not sure if that will be safe enough or if she should keep driving north towards North Carolina or even Washington DC, or stay put in Gainsville, I am much more worried now than I was when Irma was coming our way.

 

[MikeFisher]

Thanks for keeping us updated and ahead of the game Mike, I also have my daughter and her husband in Miami so I am officially very worried, they spent 10 hours on the road last night moving at 3MPH and finally arrived in Gainesville, FL around 5 AM, with their two dogs, but now I see that Irma's eye will cut through the heart of Florida so I'm not sure she's safe where she is. According to the house' owner it can stand cat. 2 hurricane force and they are not in a flood-prone area, but I'm not sure if that will be safe enough or if she should keep driving north towards North Carolina or even Washington DC, or stay put in Gainsville, I am much more worried now than I was when Irma was coming our way.

honestly, at this moemnt i would not name any place in Entire Florida, Georgia and Alabama safe.
on light changes of the Tracking the states of Mississippi and South Carolina could be in the middle of the path, too.
if i would be them and thereis a chance to do so, i would drive up to South Carolina and follow up the Advisories there.
very likely they will stay safe in SC all the time.
in case of changes they could continue from SC northwards, as they would be ahead of the Storm with the time to ride away ahead of it.
the Destructive eye of Irma is not that big, but it will hit straight on somewhere and no place around there could tell not to be the place where it walks over.

Mike

 

[windeguy]

Thanks for keeping us updated and ahead of the game Mike, I also have my daughter and her husband in Miami so I am officially very worried, they spent 10 hours on the road last night moving at 3MPH and finally arrived in Gainesville, FL around 5 AM, with their two dogs, but now I see that Irma's eye will cut through the heart of Florida so I'm not sure she's safe where she is. According to the house' owner it can stand cat. 2 hurricane force and they are not in a flood-prone area, but I'm not sure if that will be safe enough or if she should keep driving north towards North Carolina or even Washington DC, or stay put in Gainsville, I am much more worried now than I was when Irma was coming our way.

I would agree with that concern regarding Florida. Carolina in the morning would be a good bet.

 

[retiree]

Wouldn't it be better to head inland toward Atlanta? And then go west as soon as you can?

 

[cavok]

Irma is now about 100 miles south of Exuma Int'l on the south end of the Exumas and is alrealy reporting winds of 90 mph. This shows just how much stronger Irma is on the northside compared to the south where the wind gradient was more compressed and steeper - and why we got lucky here on the north coast.

If this goes into the Straits of Florida, which is looking more and more likely, the Keys will be devastated. A little further to the north and South Florida will be a total disaster area.

 

[jojo2130]

Its looking like a pinball machine out there.
I feel for the people in the current paths . Hoping for the best outcome for all.
Here on the North Coast alot of the older Dominican folks I spoke with are telling me , it happens most of the time. The hurricanes coming this way bounce off Puerto Rico and we don't get much on the North coast. And that the mountains around us here in Gaspar Hernandez shelter us. That part makes sense. A bit puzzling to me when the forecast at times were putting us in the 90% to 100% of the Wind Cone. Even while were getting some gusts at maybe 50MPH , I was following and we were SUPPOSED to be getting 250 KM Winds. The old fellas had it right this time ! My neighbour was putting in a drop ceiling in his tin roofed house , all day yesterday with a crew from SFM. I showed him the reports and the forecasts and didnt faze him at all. We had a room ready for them in case their roof went away.

 

[mido]

Anybody heard from jstarebel???

 

[ljmesg]

Mike, what is the depth of the continental shelf of PC and the North Coast?

We can model storm surge potential for future possible events.

Hopefully the shelf is deeper than shallower........

 

[windeguy]

Its looking like a pinball machine out there.
I feel for the people in the current paths . Hoping for the best outcome for all.
Here on the North Coast alot of the older Dominican folks I spoke with are telling me , it happens most of the time. The hurricanes coming this way bounce off Puerto Rico and we don't get much on the North coast. And that the mountains around us here in Gaspar Hernandez shelter us. That part makes sense. A bit puzzling to me when the forecast at times were putting us in the 90% to 100% of the Wind Cone. Even while were getting some gusts at maybe 50MPH , I was following and we were SUPPOSED to be getting 250 KM Winds. The old fellas had it right this time ! My neighbour was putting in a drop ceiling in his tin roofed house , all day yesterday with a crew from SFM. I showed him the reports and the forecasts and didnt faze him at all. We had a room ready for them in case their roof went away.

If you followed the forecasts from NHC, the forecasts showed a low probability of hurricane force winds on the north coast. We had a high probability of tropical force winds and it played out as predicted.

 

[MikeFisher]

no notice from jstarebel.

2PM Update on Irma.
the Tracking Models stay put on the highest probabilities
that Irma will touchdown on southern Florida and walk all the way north over Florida on Land.
the hit would be by the strongest part of the Eye.
as the Storm then moves Northwards the highest powers would be present on the Eastside of Irma.
but anyways, that Eye wandering over Land in the middle of tiny Florida,
means to have top forces on all sides.
Irma continues on the lower 14mphr forward speed.
the Storm stopped the prior shown power losses, running 155mphr max Winds on the Northwall, 127mphr on the Southwall, 141mphr on the W and E-walls.
Irma looks "bothered" on several points/sides, but did stop the decrease of powers, even raised powers the last couple hours.
it will very likely be due the interaction of the many different landmasses the last 24hrs and on the further path coming into the way of it's surface circulation.
this Storm did not get any hard hit by any touch with land so far and is already in the process to rise the bar again on powers.

Jose is still shown Tracking WNW on 18mphr.
for the sake of the Leewards i just hope that shown north shift/turn will come on time,
as this Hurricane is wandering since very long hours now on almost a straight western Tracking with only little northwards drift.
let it Turn for Jsarebel.

if the actual tracking forecast for Irma stays as it is today,
then i just hope that there is NO Human beeing left behind anywhere on Floridian Soil by tomorrow evening.
There is NO SafeHouse in the State for what is coming that way,
the only reasonable preparation is to take the kids, dogs and beercooler, fuel the Truck and run out of Dodge before all highways are locked by last minute traffickers.
considering the large number of people living in FL, i really don't wanna be anywhere in Fl today to start the journey.

good luck to all

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

If you followed the forecasts from NHC, the forecasts showed a low probability of hurricane force winds on the north coast. We had a high probability of tropical force winds and it played out as predicted.

thats right.
the forecasts get for tracking betterStorm by Storm the last couple years
and they never been as precise as on Irma.
while due possible tracking errors the DR could have received hurricane force winds,
the forecasts did not show such, they showed TS Force and just chances of H-Force.
the forecasts could not have been any more precise than they's been on Irma all the way from birth til Miss.
good for us, but the same precision would be very bad for FL,
so i wish them a significant error to be corrected the next 36hrs

Mike

 

[countryroads24]

My city of Atlanta has swelled overnight as we continue to receive evacuees from Florida and the Georgia coast.  Hotels are getting full so people continue moving North.  Many have heeded the warnings and it looks as though only the "rough and tumble" natives of the Florida Keys are remaining, reports are that only half have left....������

 

[MikeFisher]

My city of Atlanta has swelled overnight as we continue to receive evacuees from Florida and the Georgia coast.  Hotels are getting full so people continue moving North.  Many have heeded the warnings and it looks as though only the "rough and tumble" natives of the Florida Keys are remaining, reports are that only half have left....������

sad to hear.
the road from key Largo down could easily become a road to absolutely nowhere.
i wish them all to get lucky and stay fine, but i would not chance that,
not at a place where the only road out is right on the water and leading straight head-on the storm,
means nobody there could start a roadtrip out on last minute.

Mike

 

[IslandDreaming]

All this talk about Florida :nervous: Seriously, happy to see differing opinions and possibilities, we (Daytona Beach) are going to get hit good but no where near as bad as Miami/Dade county

 

[RV429]

I too am in Daytona. Not too many good options in the state. The whole peninsula is in danger.

All this talk about Florida :nervous: Seriously, happy to see differing opinions and possibilities, we (Daytona Beach) are going to get hit good but no where near as bad as Miami/Dade county

 

[dv8]

our family friend went to miami to give birth, it's rather troublesome pregnancy and she needs the best care she can get. now we are worried how she's going to cope there being a size of an elephant and as mobile as a grand piano.
hope that florida does not get its ass whooped. stay safe, y'all.

 

[ROLLOUT]

In the panhandle here. I'm pretty certain I'll have no worries.