What I do not get is Windy.com and NOAA using the same ECMWF model.
According to Windy page the center of Maria will hit Punta Cana head on, according to NOAA not. Same model. Strange. Of course I take NOAA (after Mike of course
) more serious.
So, what is Windy up to? Fake news?
No, absolutely not the same data used.
Windy is never up to date, they are hours and sometimes half a day behind the NOAA updates.
there forecasts are really completely useless.
i followed that site for a long while since it came up here on the Topic.
looks pretty nice colorful, but that's like a super heavy painted sexy Bra after a gallon of Brugal XV.
wake up the next morning and take a look on her when she comes out of the bathroom undone and you jump from the 10th floor Penthouse into safety.
You can't tell a exact Track over 48 or even more hrs ahead of time, tat's why the NHC uses that "Cone of certainty/uncertainty".
those guys do that since ever and they know why they do not predict not even a 24hrs outlook as a Line, but as a Cone, becasue it is impossible by todays knowledges/softwares/weather observations and calculations to paint a correct fine Line 24hrs out for a Storms Tracking.
there are not dozens but hundreds of factors/variables who have to be forecasted correctly, and i mean on time of appearance/strength/movement and length of occurance completely exactly, to forecast the next 5hrs exactly on a correct happening fine thin line on a Map.
such is not possible, so the different model runs are done with slight different input about the forecasted variables like occurances of High Pressure Ridges, upcoming Low pressure Areas, their stength and movements.
and each of those variables is based on a forecast with a "Cone".
all this is Computer programming and the use of the world's top speed high tech computers on the highest possible level.
Humans alone could not tell ya if it will rain **** in an hour or if the Mona Channel will freeze tonight, lol.
Windy is just one of many Visitor attracting sites on the Net.
sites which attract visitors are venues for AD Moneys, and thats what it finally is all about, get da $$$$$.
like the crap told completely hyped up a week before a Storm could theoretically hit a american city on TV and those different news sources websites and facebook pages etc etc.
it is all about the big $$$, and there are monster loads of $$$ earned every Irma, Maria, Sandy, Kathy and whatsoever Biach running for the Top-Model of the year or the century.
and don't get me wrong, this is not meant to blame americans for their dumbazz kinda News they have,
the Europeans are not a single bit better, they are exactly the same fear mongers for Money $$$.
that includes the german TV and News coverage of such events.
I just mention more often the american news sources, as they are what we listen to and read about here on the Island.
who te fock would move to te Caribbean and watch German TV News??
don't watch those many colorful sites, they will not help you not a little bit to get the real info or feel better or anything Real.
stick to the info taken from the NHC/NOAA, the only source professional and with the knowledge about anything related to Tropical Cyclone things.
Yes, I said this, there is something we really can trust the americans on, really.
let's keep Maria on it's Trend it went today and specially with a huge move by 11PM tonight,
and we will be all fine.
a lil bit more up on da Map and even eastern Samana will not even get TS-Force Winds.
and honsetly, nobody who prepares todays for a Storm should fear any TS Force Winds.
what is always important to know, for every single area where each is living,
is the vulnerability in case of Rainloads.
Major Hurricane Forces of the highest level aside, the thing we really have to fear is the Water coming down on us within sometimes 5-10hrs full loads and then many long hours afterwards in bursts/rain on-off intervalls.
for example myself here at my place i have nothing to fear from Rainloads.
it could rain the whole week without any stopping monet, so what, the roads would be completely blocked?
yeah, so i use a Zodiac instead of a car or bike. it would not be a life threatening dnager here in my area.
but it is THE big danger for so many areas around teh Island.
and of those rainy dangers you primarily always have to be aware abotu for your specific own area.
you have to know what waterloads can be taken safely and when teh time is come to leave because it gets dangerous.
so let's Maria keep moving tonight and tomorrow on it's today shown drift.
IF the constellation of te Storm does not change, then we would even stay safe waterwise,
buit this is a point completely uncertain, as this Storm very likely will get much more powerful tahn it is at the moment, so it's positioning of waterloads and the Distances it spread's them out, can and very likely will change a lot the next several days before arrival.
stay dry
Mike
