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hurricane season 2017
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The DR1 problem during Irma was , I believe, due to server trouble in Houston, which was battered by Harvey.
Yes, but it wasn't working last night either around (Sept. 16, 11:00-11:30pm). Only the home page was visible. All forums had an error message.
MORE POWERFUL THAN HURRICANE IRMA - direct hit to the DR - Hurricane Maria
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone#contents
Reports this morning are now saying Hurricane Maria will be more destructive - according to the Miami Herald this morning. And, it's coming straight to the Dominican Republic.
Las Terrenas dodged a bullet with Irma....this time I'm holding my breath.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone#contents
Reports this morning are now saying Hurricane Maria will be more destructive - according to the Miami Herald this morning. And, it's coming straight to the Dominican Republic.
Las Terrenas dodged a bullet with Irma....this time I'm holding my breath.
keep such bullshut off the Forum.
We are NOT Miami Herald or CNN or Fox News Dummies!!!
Mike
windeguy already posted the Graphic of the 11PM Update.
Maria is intensifying and slowing down on forward speed, which will increase intensification even further.
w should await it to be a Cat3 when approaching PR.
that stuff can of course change due the walk over the Southern Leewards.
the Tracking shows a slight but nice shift towards the North.
by now Maria will pass us very close on our ENE Side with the weaker side of the Storm towards the Island.
TS Force Winds already extend 70 miles out from the Center, which is a wide windfield for a still just developing Tropical Storm.
we keep watching and celebrate to continue observing the NE'ern shift of that tracking line.
i can not add anything to the NOAA Tracking, the steering valuables are much too much and much too uncertain for me to make any other guess.
as usual, this looks big and ugly, and of course we will stay fine.
but we will observe and be ready to do last minute preparations or even leave Dodge in case the Tracking points on us by wednesday morning.
Mike
Maria is intensifying and slowing down on forward speed, which will increase intensification even further.
w should await it to be a Cat3 when approaching PR.
that stuff can of course change due the walk over the Southern Leewards.
the Tracking shows a slight but nice shift towards the North.
by now Maria will pass us very close on our ENE Side with the weaker side of the Storm towards the Island.
TS Force Winds already extend 70 miles out from the Center, which is a wide windfield for a still just developing Tropical Storm.
we keep watching and celebrate to continue observing the NE'ern shift of that tracking line.
i can not add anything to the NOAA Tracking, the steering valuables are much too much and much too uncertain for me to make any other guess.
as usual, this looks big and ugly, and of course we will stay fine.
but we will observe and be ready to do last minute preparations or even leave Dodge in case the Tracking points on us by wednesday morning.
Mike
Mike, the servers are based in Houston/Tx and they are troublesome since Harvey paid a visit.
Robetr is 24/7 on that stuff since and if the Texans can't solve their stuff he is even ready to switch to completely new servers at a new location, but such can not be decided on and not be done from one day to an other.
such is a heck of work to do so and it costs some significant $$$, too.
In the Colombian Technicians We Trust, lol.
he will keep us onlien and when this Maria approaches we will again switch to the Whatsapp Group to keep each others up to date with live local coverage rom all different areas.
Mike
Don't listen to what the Americans are saying... With them everything is Bad, Dangerous, State of Emergency, bla bla bla... How can Hurricane Maria be more destructive than Irma who was a Cat 5 ???
exactly.
Maria is actually a Tropical Storm developing towards to become a Hurricane,
but for the american press it is already stronger and more dangerous than Irma, which they name the biggest one ever observed.
luckily Irma was fairly dry, it did not bring the deadly rainfalls expected from a upper scale storm and it did not move the Storm Surge awaited from such big Storm.
Maria is promising for the Southern Leeward Island heavy rainfalls, much more than Irma, but only a fraction of the windpowers. well, it could be discussed what is worse, simply depends on each single isolated location.
Mike
This is how rumors and misinformation starts. 2020 paraphrased and wrote incorrect info.
Then the next posters adds more incorrect info and repeats it
Fox News is not forecasting a Cat 5, neither is Fox and neither is Miami Herald.
If you read the Miami Herald article, is it fairly straightforward and factual. It just says the storm is strengthening and shows the NHC map, with the DR in the cone. It says nothing of a Cat 5 or a direct hit to the DR, except the map. No American media is forecasting Maria to be greater than Cat 5. Sheeeezzz
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article173811681.html#storylink=cpy
Saw it on windy too, first time I would prefer the GFS model is right...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017091712/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atltropics_5.png
I always tell myself not to read too much into one model or another but we all clamor for information when it can affect us.
National Hurricane Center is the authority on this. Their track for elma was correct and they have more info than any other. Besides the satellites they own they fly fri**n planes into the eye. European models are based on limited info. Also looks like Maria has a tendamcy to go more north.
I know a lot of people here don't like the Ventusky model, but it is showing a path that is moving more and more northward-even possibly over Puerto Rico.
The ECMWF model..the Euro...is highly regarded and along with the GFS is the most reliable weather models used by the National Hurricane centre in providing their updates includingthe one today at 5pm as the quoted text in their forecast discussion:
The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt. Maria
is expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it
will likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the
Lesser Antilles. Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered
for the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence in
the NHC track forecast. The updated official forecast is slightly
south of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the
update of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it is
right along the previous track after 36 hours. This solution is
between the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA
solution.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/175516.shtml?cone#contents
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