hurricane season 2017

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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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TS Maria is born and as opposed to Lee it is expected to develop further.
but the different models are not united on anything.
the worst case sceanrio is a Major Hurricane over PR on Wednesday.
power and tracking outlooks are not in any agreements at all, so there is hope for changes,
but those changes have to come quick, as this Storm of whatsoever powers is moving in on high speed.
we just can wait til the forecasts on the influencing conditions for powers and steering get more united.
but there's not much time to wait, specially for the Leewards again, it is at the doorstep already knocking on the front gate.

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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DR Solar said:
WoW! Lots of talk.

I'll wait from Mr Fisher but would guess, given it's projected path, that this will get knocked down real fast as historical records show from our mountain effects of the PR and DR. Even the mighty Cat. 5 Irma 35 miles north of the DR was not nearly as bad as projected. And we are very thankful.

So I wait for Mr. Fisher and very much discard most of the many excited posts.

Thank you Mr. Fisher.
Click to expand...

""IF"" it comes the actually shown path by the NHC,
then it would indeed get a smack down by PR, become the usual No Show for Punta Cana/my own home turf with a day/some hours of wind and maybe even some strong non dangeous rain as we stay on the weaker Western Side of such NW moving Storm on the decline, plus the further Knock Down over the waters of the Mona Channel.
blowing a bit over the illegally constructed Beach Huts within the 60 meter beach zones on Samana and leaving the northshores also on it's weak side, as a by then well smashed down ex-Storm.
we will see soon, this one still can go anywhere, I really don't know, i don't trust any of the models.

Mike
 
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rubio_higuey

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Feb 7, 2007
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Mike a question, why would Mona channel knock down the storm? I thought open water gives a potential to increase the storm... Could you please explain? Thank you.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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rubio_higuey said:
Mike a question, why would Mona channel knock down the storm? I thought open water gives a potential to increase the storm... Could you please explain? Thank you.
Click to expand...

the waters are told to cool the storms fueling down and the currents(wind currents) divide around the Mountains of PR first and again bounce from the DR Mountains, pushing the Storms off the straight Track, hence a straight hit on PC is almost impossible when a storm comes from PR.
there been exceptions, tho, we saw such in 2004 on Jeanne which made it straight shore rigt here at the Cape, but got it's typical hard beating, went down from a strong Hurricane to just a medium TS Force in the few hours over the channel.

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Maria is getting it's act together
and the Models show with such short time til Touchdown a darn wide Band of possibe tracking.
the middle way would be eastern PR.

AL15_2017091612_ECENS.png

AL15_2017091618_GEFS.png


it is coming very fast, should be at the Southern Leewards Monday afternoon/evening.
vis-animated.gif


12.4N53.0W now at 8PM,
let's see at 11PM how steep it climbs, as it is still shown as westward running,
but the tracking models show it NW'WARD Heading steeply up the Map.
I don't see why it is expected to come that steep upwards.

we can go shopping for the next popcorn to be ready to observe Maria.
and that Song call's "Maria se fue".

Mike
 
C

Catseye

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Nov 7, 2009
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Rio San Juan, Dominican Republic
oh joy!  right through my living room!  and I just took my Irma plywood off 3 days ago!

I'm counting on that good ole DR deflection to move this one, too.  Come on, Maria, go north and buddy up with Jose.  Have your affair away from everyone.
 
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TropicalPaul

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Sep 3, 2013
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I know that we can't trust Windy.com, but if you look at what it is suggesting will happen on Thursday it isn't looking good for Punta Cana. And if that place took a hit, the economy of the whole island would take a big dive.
 
Cdn_Gringo

Cdn_Gringo

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Apr 29, 2014
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Here's hoping that the tourists and the airlines are bit more on the ball this time around. I don't understand why clueless people are able to arrive on Monday only to be evacuated on Wednesday or complain that they should have been evacuated on Wednesday.
 
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dv8

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Sep 27, 2006
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greato :( that's gonna shake the rest of our aguacates off the tree...
i believe the predictions were that it's going to be a lively season this year...
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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sorry for my absense guys.
DR1 was not accessible last night and sunday mornings i am not much on the windy things.

Maria dropped pressure steeply last night and is intensifying on a good pace, slowing down the forward speed.
this will be a Hurricane any moment Today.
the Tracking cone iscompeltely uncertain, it leave sthe options to pass us South and hitsomewhere SoutCentral Haiti and on the other extreme it would pass us far out on the NE turning on open Sea.
the NOAA Mapshows the middle way, which is a walk over the Central Islandbelt Tomorrow Night,
approaching PR from the SouthEast already as a Major Hurricane on Wednesday morning
and passing just a few miles off the Beaches along Punta Cana NW to wander over Samana.

there is no confidence on tracking nor powers forecasted.
a Hurricane wandering that full over PR SE-NW will veryunliely stay on Major Hurricane Powers,
but the Models show so.
and such full walk over would change tracking, but they showit as a straight line.
to me the tracking is just a compromise, a middle line of many possible tracks on which the models are unsure.

aside of a straight hit of a major hurricane eye, a very bad scenario would be such one passing towards SC Haiti,
that would be very close to our south and bring the powerful Northern Quadrants towards us.

let this one shift northwards as far as possible, the SW-Part too close is powers enough to take.

look on this wide Tracking Cone, it leaves everytracking/Way open:
113819_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
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