2015 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Olly. If the power was out how did your friend post that report? Please have the team investigate further.

i am online without power, too.
from the smartphone and the tablet and the laptop, as long as the spare battery packs last and as long as the inverter powers of the Claro Tower in town last.
the house without power does not mean you are disconnected from the chit-chatting-world.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,898
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www.mikefisher.fun
power was out here in Gazcue all day - which is very rare for Gazcue - considered to have power 24/7. But this post reminded me to plug in my rechargeable flashlights (and Kindles)

yesterday I had four bottles of water delivered.

(my mother always used to all me during hurricane watches in New England -- every hour a new admonition... my favorite was "fill the bathtub with water" which I would do here except there is no plug that fits... )

water?
Annie, WATER???
in such times, we get more water than we wish for,
stock on beers 'n'Ice for the short term and on gallons of Rum for the long term(when no ice nor power etc available anymore).
i love to stock up for the worst of all which never happened,
because it is great to kill da supplies afterwards to get room for the daily needs again in da fridge and storage room, lol

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,898
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Yeah Mike. Where the heck you been!!? I was wondering when are we going to get your report. Looks like a storm is brewing for Sanoa?

Saona??
who cares shyt for Saona??
a overrun ugly tourist mass attraction, where they killed all the beautiful reefs and under water wildlife the last couple decades.
Saona can be blown away by Erika and nothing is missing,
other than some big Touroperators 70% sales commissions charges on tour tickets, lol.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,898
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The cream and onion was gone in SD for about two months too, but is back since a few weeks. They make
me think of my second to one favorite flavor of Dutch lays chips (cheese and onion, paprika being first). Only issue is a bag is 60 euro cents there and about 3 euros here. :eek:

they are worth it.
and you will still buy 'em when they run for 5 euros a lil pack.
me, too.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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no real news on the 11PM updates,
even that a HUnter plane been in the storm to provide the most possible accurate data,
but there isn't.
Erika is fleddered and shows several circulating center areas,
a storm bothered by now very high windshear but fighting it's game to survive.
NOAA deicdes the center as the middle of the over all circulation, as the hunters copuld not point a real single circulating center of the storm.
right now we have a small but strong portion in the North Quadrant bathering the Virgin Islands.
the hunter plane reported tops of 59knots, but not down on the surface level, so the shedules don't change,
Erika stays shown as a 1008mb 40knots max sustained winds tropical storm with a not sure to point out primary Center.
comparing positioning of the 3hrs ago shown center and the actual shown common "core"(it has no core, thats the prob to locate the storm exactly), it did simply move straight West, 270degrees the last hours.
the models show the same tracking, but keep in mind that they get feed the same center positioning data,
the forecatss of any tracking are at the moment just useless.
certain is that Erika will not gain powers,
but it can concentrate already available powers around a really "centered" point and then start the NW'wards move from there, and such point leaves many many miles of uncertainty as for "where da fukc is Erika".
the Virgin Islands are under siege now, and will get more once the Eastern Quadrant moves over them many hours later.
Puerto Rico will get more than was wished for in case of water.
I have no clue where to locate a center , hence no idea where it will move to.
the drift right now looks WEST, but that's due the availability of several circulations within one system and the multiple switches of prime-center positioning today.
the steering winds blow towards the WNW,
but the big question is:
from Which location on will What move WNW wards?
the eastshores here look since a couple hours fine, cloudy but dry,
rainfalls are not anywhere near, yet.
the waterloads are located in 2 different areas,
one over the Virgin Islands approaching eastern Puerto Rico the next hrs,
and the big one well far SE of Puerto Rico, drifting westward.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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the weather underground has now a great shot on,
where you see the 2 portions.
the smaller one over the Virgin Islands/East of PR,
and the main Thunder and rain area on the south of the storm.


enhanced-ir-erika-0115Z-8.27.15.jpg
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,898
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www.mikefisher.fun
just a side note in times of Erika,
we have a area of disturbed weather wetting the pavement already reaching the 40th"West,
and a well sized TRopical Wave nearing the west african coast, hitting the atlantic waters on 15mphr the next 24-30hrs to use the special grip on a wettened storm-Highway.
it is the time of the year with the line ups.

Mike
 

mido

Bronze
May 18, 2002
1,522
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At the moment, 6:30 in the morning the center is about 50 km south east of Isla Saona. So the south coast will be affected more than the north coast.
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
18,948
514
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Looking at the maps that come with this 5 A.M. Advisory, I am betting that the DR gets rain..

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 67.7 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and
move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday and Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast today as Erika moves over land, followed
by little change in strength through Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
to the north and east of the center. A Weatherflow station in Las
Mareas, Puerto Rico, recently reported a wind of 52 mph (84 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

My take on this:

Mike's wonderful posts confirm this latest advisory.

Perhaps some wind damage but nothing major. Store some water, stay calm...
You folks along the South and Eastern Shores can have parties, with cold greenies and
girlie drinks and play dominoes (or bridge)..

Welcome Erika.

HB
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,898
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www.mikefisher.fun
the party location changed slightly,
but significantly for the southeast.
Erika is still shifting westwards,
no Landfall in Puerto Rico, so not knocked down , yet, but heavy injuries licking.
the "estimated" Center(no center area to see on sat shots, it is estimated by the over all movement and swing of the system, by the NHC), passed south of the Mona Channel and is approaching to pass south of Saona.
the models for steering wind forecasts, tuen it NW at any moment. such can wait hours, it can happen right now.
a landfall anywhere on the DR-South is very likely during today, but no chance to tell where.
the storm is anyways wide enough and will bring it's winds to everywhere, so please no jealousy by some folks, believing that others get more to see, lol.
Tropical Storm Force Winds are capable to cover DR soil completely at once, as they reach far enough out off the Center, 150miles on the north and western side by actual placement of the center region.
stay at home, watch the news, chitchat the usual stuff on DR1 as long as the power is on, and STAY AT HOME!.
this could bring some regions way more waterloads than necessary to fill the ponds.
a landfall onour grounds should knock down the storms powers quickly, it is unstable and not running well.
a slow drift/walk along our southshores would provide for today many many hours of TS Force winds to the south but spare us from the hefty E/S'ern rainloads.

time to hit da road to the Marina
if we still have power, will be back on here later

Mike

at201505_model_zoom.gif


swir-animated.gif
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
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Brief showers in Santiago around 7:00 a.m. Nothing to write home about, but the water did run in the gutters.

Perhaps a preview?

HB
 

Eugeniefs

New member
Jan 24, 2008
286
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0
Good morning all. Well here in PC the wind has been blowing since early morning, it is a bit stronger now but not much rain (so far). The gusts are quite powerful. Thank goodness I got all our palm trees trimmed at the beginning of the week :)

Keep safe everyone
 

caribmike

Gold
Jul 9, 2009
6,808
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Never experienced a TS sitting in the 5th floor...

Always lived in houses before nicely sheltered but now in a PH with huge windows facing East in the 5th floor in Santo Domingo 220 meters from the Ocean...

Maybe a dumb question but how much windforce could a big window front resist? I have no way to cover them up. Or in general would flying debris (well, maybe not in the 5th floor?) be more of a concern than the wind gusts itself?
 

Cdn_Gringo

Gold
Apr 29, 2014
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Rained off and on all night in Sosua. Power off for a few hours. Brief showers, a pause, more showers, repeating this morning as the outer bands move across the area. Breeze starting a little earlier than with normal everyday heating now, but can't be called a wind yet.

Just sitting here soaking in the experience of the prelude to my first TS (a weak one yes but my first none-the-less).
 
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AlterEgo

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 9, 2009
24,261
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South Coast
Never experienced a TS sitting in the 5th floor...

Always lived in houses before nicely sheltered but now in a PH with huge windows facing East in the 5th floor in Santo Domingo 220 meters from the Ocean...

Maybe a dumb question but how much windforce could a big window front resist? I have no way to cover them up. Or in general would flying debris (well, maybe not in the 5th floor?) be more of a concern than the wind gusts itself?

Mike, do what we do in the USA - buy some wide packaging, masking or duct tape, and tape large X's on each window. Some say it won't stop the window from breaking, but it may keep the glass from flying all around the room. In any case, can't hurt.
 
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