2015 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

85Knots windspeed
982mb central pressure
a Storm on it's way to hel.l.

Hurricane Danny is running by the expectations, other than that it peaked on higher windspeed than I awaited.
the timely sheet is followed by the Storm exactly,
the downgrade on areal covering size to gain windpowers,
the time frame of peak winds,
the going down for the weekend
etc etc
the models keep it still on the exact same tracking on this mornings updates,
i still await that to change once the windforces went down to just a mid scale TS Force.
by tomorrow mid day there should not be a Hurricane Danny anymore.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

just a addy:
yes,
now Danny/then to be more likely EX-Danny, is welcome on the Islands again.
considering it stays on the several days ahead forecasted tracking,
a strong TS would bring good rain to the northern Islandbelt,
a weakening TS of the mid-low scale brings good rain over Puerto Rico,
then it get's very uncertain.
PR is a very rough Terrain for Storms of all sizes.
if it does not hit PR Centrally/not walk with it's center E_W that Island, it keeps more powers and the rains together to bring them over here. a direct walk ober PR-soil with it's center would be more likely a killer, sending our way some rainclouds which are unorganized and spread out, they still should fill the Ponds on the East.
in case it reaches DR as a straight walk on, there would not be a real storm anymore, a TD force or below(depending on a PR Hit or not hitting there), it would move slowly over land like a windy Vaguada, raining down til the few clouds are emptied.

once Danny is gone,
we can right away move on to the next Cap Verde System.
it will show slow development this weekend, as it moves very fast westward on around 25mphr,
but faces on the looong range outlook nothing bad of a pavement, partially improved due Danny's walk out there.
the dry air shield is on the far east down to a fraction of what it was last week,
water temps on/near the surface are of course the same,
windshear outlooks will be checked after the weekend to start to "guess" about the late august action.
let 'em Moooove
and bring water.
what are all those Maps and articles and self education worth,
if none of those buggers shows up on da Maps??

enjoy a sunny weekend everyone,
it is exactly that what we will do right here right now

Mike

 

[windeguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/144842.shtml?5-daynl

Current path predicted to be over Samana at 2 AM Wednesday.

 

[MikeFisher]

here is a view for the ones who plan their "Suape Dance Moves".
it shows the positioning and moves of the Waterloads in a system.
GREEN is what we needover here and what heats up the moves of Suape Dancers,
shown in yellow colour is the surround dry air mass.
on the southwest corner you can see closest to the core dry air is present.
highest dry air density is on the NW, where the system is still strong, but that is also it's heading/direction of road to heck.

 

[MikeFisher]

11AM update.
down on 80Knots,
984mb central pressure, weakening steadily.
it's forward speed already started to rise, now shown as 12mphrs, 20% quicker than the last 24hrs average forward speed.

Mike

 

[william webster]

how does that afffect the Samana arrival.....??

Earlier, obviously.....
does speed affect the track?

 

[MikeFisher]

that track can be effected by every little thingy of an influence.
of course it may track exactly as shown,
but i would never bet on such.
if i would live in Saman, i would not await to get the present of much rain,
i don't believe that any remaints of Danny will hit any portion of DR Landmass at all.
it will pass our NE, that does not leave much for everything south of the system.

if you watched the above shown water vapor loop from my post earlier today,
and compare the prior look of the storm to now,
you already see the differences.
less dark green and more spread out,
it is falling apart as far as it's organization goes.
so every tracking is highly uncertain.
it could rain down everywhere somewhere mid week.
the only effects we will get for sure form the ex-storm, is the "high" swells.
but, as Danny is on the road to dead and pushing down the throttle on the ride, the surf forecasts are downgrading the swell heights and wave constancies/rhytms a lot every few hours.

during monday you will see a clearer track and we will get a better idea about
"how much will it rain and where"
"will it rain at all, darn??"

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

how does that afffect the Samana arrival.....??

Earlier, obviously.....
does speed affect the track?

the models did calculate on a rising speed upon approach form the very beginning on.
sure that has it's inconstancies, as we are talking about the moving speed forecasts of a week prior to the real occurance,
but they been very nice on the game on this one.
i await the Ocean to be flat calm in the wake by friday,
back on the water for fishing on saturday under perfect conditions.
tuesday and wednesday are 2 sure No-Do days, thursday will be taken into the vacation package of Fisherman's planning just in case.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

the models adjust and adjust and adjust.
doesn't look not even for a hit of PR, out of question that it could hit anywhere DR Soil.
sorry you guys in Samana, but it will not happen.
you will stay on the sw of the storm, take every drop you can.
as it misses most of any rough terrain, Danny should keep it's name for a while, as a weak Tropical Storm.
it could even still be a TS, on the lowest scale to fall below the 35 knots treashhold to become a TD,
while wandering north of the PoP area on wednesday.
but again, the northshore will then be on the south outflow side of the storm, the less wet side, not much to await from it.
there will not be winds stronger than what every winter Frontal provides.

Azzkicked, Biach, as it has to be.

as for my own soil, a couple days higher swells, that's it.
been with my surfin buddies this morning,
a couple days ago we looked forward to get some exceptionally nice and constant wave action in Macao and Uvero Alto, even the beach area of Arena Blanca(VIK) been on our Maps for a mid week shedule.
now it looks more and more that we need to stick to Uvero Alto to get the max, and that max does not look that much, as the forecasts are on a downgrade tendency on the swell forecasts every couple hours.

Danny is already down on 75Knots of maximum sustained winds, and that's just estimates which may be well below already.
i don't think any more Flights into the system will take place.
pressure is rising slowly but constantly.

the big tropical wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands is a wide area, which needs it's time to get organized.
factors do not look bad to get such done in some days.
it still moves extremely fast, around 25mphr.
it will form around the 15thN, that is high up and should not become a threat for the Islands.
odds are medium ranged to get a strong storm out of it, but it finally would be a dead runner, one for the graveyard, not threatening anything near the Islands over here.
may be worth to watch on its development next week.

Mike

 

[donP]

As we speak...

...i don't think any more Flights into the system will take place.

Today, 2 p.m.:

" U. S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are currently enroute to investigate Danny."

donP

 

[MikeFisher]

Today, 2 p.m.:

" U. S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are currently enroute to investigate Danny."

donP

surprised on that, IF they keep the shedule,
it is a waste of resources.
on the other hand,
every flight brings experience, studies, betters the estimates of the next one and next and next ...
today, til now, it is loosing 5 knots of max sustained windspeed every few hrs,
the sat shots show it's TS portions spreading out/falling apart.

Mike

 

[ju10prd]

As long as there is no change in forward speed and my flight from St Kitts leaves tomorrow early as scheduled to SXM and SDQ I'm happy.

 

[MikeFisher]

As long as there is no change in forward speed and my flight from St Kitts leaves tomorrow early as scheduled to SXM and SDQ I'm happy.

65Knots, that's upper edge tropical storm force winds only, dropping quickly
991 central pressure, rising
14mphr forward speed, rising
tendency is to just slightly touch the northernmost Islands of the Belt, tendency northwards shifting.

ju10prd
i can not imagine any influence on any st dgo flight due Danny, as long as you don't try to depart from one of the northernmost Islands. st dgo will not get anything of the ex-storm.
even the Eastern Tip, PC airport at Cabo Enga?o, will not get bothered, other than troubles at the departure airports from other soil.

Mike

 

[ju10prd]

65Knots, that's upper edge tropical storm force winds only, dropping quickly
991 central pressure, rising
14mphr forward speed, rising
tendency is to just slightly touch the northernmost Islands of the Belt, tendency northwards shifting.

ju10prd
i can not imagine any influence on any st dgo flight due Danny, as long as you don't try to depart from one of the northernmost Islands. st dgo will not get anything of the ex-storm.
even the Eastern Tip, PC airport at Cabo Enga?o, will not get bothered, other than troubles at the departure airports from other soil.

Mike

I'm in the northern Leewards right now and fly about 75 miles north tomorrow early from St Kitts to St Maarten and depart to SDO just after midday so looks ok right now. (not using PAWA).

Looks like the storm will pass near or over the BVI/St Thomas/St John and close to St Maarten/St Barts/Anguilla but Monday morning sunrise so should be good to fly home. My guess they will suspend flights in this area from midnight tomorrow.

SDO is the all clear end of the trip even now.

 

[MikeFisher]

Tropical Storm Danny is already down on 55knots max sustained winds,
and also really falling apart,
it will not hold storm status much longer.
what will arrive near the Isands could be named a windy Vaguada.
in the meanwhile,
observer's food lines up on the african side to be served next week.

around our soil,
all will stay just fine.

Mike

 

[MiamiDRGuy]

By the time it arrives DR, it will be most likely 45mph winds with LOTS of heavy rain for entire DR as well.

So go figures

 

[MikeFisher]

By the time it arrives DR, it will be most likely 45mph winds with LOTS of heavy rain for entire DR as well.

So go figures

have a link to those figures?
didn't read anywhere of such.
at the moment it looks like the "then remaints" of a former storm will miss the DR completely to our North.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

on their latest run the models get in War over the "right path".
some bring it south of Puerto Rico to the DR Southshores,
others stick to their prior plans to see it passing to the North.
it was awaited that tracking for a dying system is uncertain even for short term,
we will look on it's direction 2-3 times per day til the clouds may be visible by the real eye to observe.

Mike

 

[franco1111]

Weather.com still shows direct hit on Puerto Rico, and a hit at Punta Cana and slightly north Tuesday p.m. Estimate is 45 mph wind speed at Punta Cana , no guess of rainfall amounts. They updated about 1/2 hour ago.

 

[MikeFisher]

down on 50knots
forward speed up on 15mphr
looks like after getting ripped off and knocked down,
it formed again a nice thunderstorm area together in the center of the system.
let's how it looks in the morning.
such small systems change quick and often.
the tracking is a mess.

Mike