2015 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

still 50knots
forward speed decreased to 13mphr for the last hour,
looks like monday evening a Tropical Depression over or around the Virgin Islands.
the walk over the northern Island Belt Monday morning will show if it changes northerly or southerly.

Mike

 

[Natu]

This is a very unpredictible storm, in the sense that its hard to predict the tracking due to so much factor affecting the storm right now... Im still convinced that it will hit the country but as an accumulation of thunderstorms and scattered rainfalls..

Talking about thunderstorms, Santo Domingo just recieved a nice thunder storm this night with an important amount of rain that could help mitigate the drought... Hope this keeps up so the country comes back to being a green paradise just as it was before.

 

[MikeFisher]

Danny is down on 45Knots
and moves forward on 15 mphr.
the Models are in agreement again,they decided to vote on the southern route into the caribbean Sea.
they are not in agreement about the exact route,
straight westward in the middle of the caribbean Sea away from Land,
towards the Puerto Rican southshores,
tendency vots actually for missing the DR's south close and walk over the Barahona Peninsula.
no powermodel indicates a real Storm, a Tropical Depression it should be.
it is a small dying storm/system,
that stuff can change drastically on every model run/change directions at any moment quickly.

chance are rising drastically, that part of the Island may get a reasonable amount of water

Mike

 

[donP]

Post-Tropical TD Over Saman??

Danny... missing the DR's south close and walk over the Barahona Peninsula.

I like to believe that. :bunny:

The NHC forecast path still depicts a post-tropical TD over my house!!
All right, we can live with that; the rain is needed anyway. :classic:

donP

 

[MikeFisher]

NOAA still shows the walk of a Tropical Depression over MY House, hitting DR soil right at Cabo Enga?o on da East. the models show very different. here at my place, we have a extreme flat calm and windfree/wavefree Beach/Ocean, perfect.
i would be very happy with such lucky hit,
as a TD is nothing more than a strong breeze of any winter frontal here, and wandering ashore here means it would follow to Higuey. there in the Hills we could need the Rain on the Ranch.
it can change more than just once from now til landfall/passing by, that tracking.
a instable system goes with every light steering breeze that sets in.
i can not imagine that any caribbean destin would complain about a watering TD at this point.
so we are back at the beginning,
where i said this time nobody pray's that it goes away,
this time all pray to be the destin for the lucky hit.
we will see who get da water.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

DonP,
where do you live?

Mike

 

[donP]

Saman? Or Punta Cana?

NOAA still shows the walk of a Tropical Depression over MY House, hitting DR soil right at Cabo Enga?o on da East.

DonP,
where do you live?

Well, I used this map (based on the NHC 8 a.m. forecast).

But I must admit, I prefer the storm, even as a TD, to go over YOUR house... :laugh: :bunny:


donP

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Talking about thunderstorms, Santo Domingo just recieved a nice thunder storm this night with an important amount of rain that could help mitigate the drought... Hope this keeps up so the country comes back to being a green paradise just as it was before.

We won't be talking about drought mitigation until we all reach the point that we are complaining as much about the rain as we are the dryness today. The Caribbean needs weeks of rain. A few heavy downpours will do little in the long run. We need 12 hours of gentle steady rain everyday for a month or longer. The DR needs its rivers to flow full again, reservoirs to fill and the aquifers to be replenished. A storm here and a storm there may help the grass and trees temporarily, but does little to alleviate the problems of delivering water to the population or providing relief for agriculture.

Every little bit helps but a more permanent solution may require the intervention of Noah.

 

[MikeFisher]

We won't be talking about drought mitigation until we all reach the point that we are complaining as much about the rain as we are the dryness today. The Caribbean needs weeks of rain. A few heavy downpours will do little in the long run. We need 12 hours of gentle steady rain everyday for a month or longer. The DR needs its rivers to flow full again, reservoirs to fill and the aquifers to be replenished. A storm here and a storm there may help the grass and trees temporarily, but does little to alleviate the problems of delivering water to the population or providing relief for agriculture.

Every little bit helps but a more permanent solution may require the intervention of Noah.

i have to diasagree.
12 hours of steady rain, even without the winds of any storm involved, could be a real danger for specific areas.
bottoms are bonedry, rainwater would be flooding everything.
a few times per week a couple hours of nice downpour is the amount the Island can take constantly.
12hrs of rain alone would be a lot at a time, but repeating such every day for a week would be a disaster and start a death toll, continuing such for a month would do significant damages/dvastation to our agriculture, rivers flooding towns, cities going dangerously under water, traffic would stop for most part, heck, i bet the tunnels of the glorious Metro would be used by Cave Divers for scuba diving then.

the models seem not to get a point about what to show,
again on the 10:30AM update several models changed their tracking completely,
all models show a different track than earlier this morning or last night.
the weak system, vulnerable to smallest influence in it's surroundings,
seems to become inpredictable for the tracking models at this point.
so let's wait til some constency shows on several consecutive runs.
the overall tendency seems to be, that no forecast of steering winds/conditions brings the system northwards anymore,
looks like a caribbean sea runner, but i doubt the tracking models can handle well the impact of the Island Belt on such weak system, so on the walk-over it all could change significantly again.

important is that none is calling for significant intensification,
so nothing more than a weak-mid range Tropical Storm to expect as the maximum,
more likely just a Tropical Depression or solely Tropical Wave.

Mike

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

I'm not saying that large amounts of rain won't cause flooding, potentially the loss of life and infrastructure. I am saying the country and most of the Caribbean needs lots and lots of rain. Nature doesn't give a hoot about flooding or drowning people. Sooner or later nature will restore balance. When that happens it may well be very bad for people, but the ground, rivers and reservoirs will be hydrated. it will take a lot of rain over many weeks for the hydrolic balance to return to normal. You can't have your cake at eat it too in this case.

Lots of water is needed. Lots of water is going to come eventually. Maybe slowly in dribs and drabs over time, maybe in larger quantities over a short period of time. It will be what it will be. The basic fact that lots of water is needed remains unchanged by the circumstances of its delivery.

 

[MikeFisher]

we are now at this time of the year,
when they line up from the far East.
mid august til late september is that peak time for highway travels.
we already have 3 at a time on the highway at this moment.
systems can form and slowly grow up,
the system that lead to Danny found a lucky small window within overall not very favorable conditions,
hence it had to size down a lot to be able to gain forces,
which lead for a short time even up to a surprising Mayor Hurricane Status.
as usual, each system riding that road towards the caribbean, prepares the pavement better for the next one to follow.
right now Invest 98L is a very large system, moisturing a wide area, cutting into the prior constant and thick SAL Layer.
and behind 98L we already have the next one over water, SE of the Cape Verde Islands, it hit atlantic waters this early morning and will continue to moisture the mid atmosphere over da highway.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Well, I used this map (based on the NHC 8 a.m. forecast).

But I must admit, I prefer the storm, even as a TD, to go over YOUR house... :laugh: :bunny:


donP

so you are in Samana, right?

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

here's it's Path it took til now,
with the estimates where it is expected to go the next days.
future path is very uncertain,
as it can change a lot once it interacts with the first Islands

 

[william webster]

so you are in Samana, right?

Mike

if the clouds come in low enough, he'll need to open the doors

 

[donP]

Southern Path Is Good.

so you are in Samana, right?

Correct.
And the more south Danny proceeds, the better.
For US. :bunny:

donP

 

[william webster]

send it on to Cabrera, donP.....

 

[MikeFisher]

sounds like you NE'ern hillbillies do not need rain.
to me it looks at this moment perfect,
a small system with only 25-30knots max winds passing south of my loaction, messing up that Saona Island Excursion thingy for a couple days, hanging it's rainclouds towards it's north over my head, while it walk's along the southshores towards WWNW over water. it may walk on Land somewhere on the S or SW, it may not, doesn't matter, i have chances to get the Ranhc in the hills of Higuey watered for a bit, at least i hope so.
a day here on my beach with less/without sun, well, who cares?
a rainy night makes for a good nights sleep with fresh air entering the always open windows.
doesn't really look like my girls would need to work their suapes within the house,
and it wouldn't bother myself anyways, lol.
check the swell forecasts and then the live swells when it approaches the first Islands,
what the first eastern islands get as swells, is the maximum what te system moves out there, and that does not look like much.
then check their received rain amounts where it wandered over straight on, that is the max amount of water it could rain down anywhere.

MIke

 

[MikeFisher]

send it on to Cabrera, donP.....

Cabrera??
isn't that, from a SE'erner point of view(my location), almost in Alaska??
that Danny is not that big.
let's see how it moves, to maybe give you a chance for a cloud or 2, lol.

Mike

 

[william webster]

Cabo Frances Viejo...... look at your nautical maps

oldest lighthouse in the New World.........

I live right above it....

just down the road from Alaska...............hahaha

 

[donP]

Whatever Is Left

send it on to Cabrera, donP.....

Those low clouds moving in from the east usually rain off in our hills, whereas the low lying areas (the coastline) do not get much rain.
In other words, the annual rainfall up here is much higher.
However, an approaching TD would cover a much wider area and bring rain to 'everyone'.

Of course, we'll milk off the clouds as much as we can.... :classic:
Cabrera? Maybe a bit, whatever is left... :laugh:


donP