2015 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

change of Plans.
usually we take some hours with the Kids on a catamaran over the weekends, no school, no stress,
but before da weather/ocean gets messed up for this weekend,
we will cruise right today.
the breed is eating lunch now, the smallest babygirl in the house(18 months) already has her Baby Life Jacket on
(we are still at home in Cabeza de Toro, not on the Cat in Cap Cana, yet, lol).
you have to enjoy life as long as all is fine,
and give a fukc on some weekends.

a keypoint for ourselves, in case of Erika, is "How" the storm will approach/hit/pass etc Puerto Rico.
if it misses PR by some notches on the NE, the storm should stay strong and get a NW'ern move.
if it comes too close to PR or even wanders right over the PR-easterntip,
that would most likely knock it down a lot, so it would stay under the influence of the low level steering winds, and those point wwnw, pointing a finger very close or on to Hispaniola's NE/Samana Peninsula.

the good note:
i found estimates of waterloads, calculated after the Hunter flights from late yeasterday and this morning.
estimates run only on max 5 inches of waterloads to be dumped down on it's path, considering the forward speed does not decrease significantly. stalling out over the eastern Islands or PR would increase such amounts of course significantly.
well, 3-5 inches with the usual bit of flooding, I bet PR would love to get exactly that, after Danny brought just less than half an inch of water to San Juan/PR, a drop on a very hot stone so to speak.
the GFS Model looks the most convincing one. it's the one the others did not agree with much the last couple days, but they move their lines closer now, while te red line of the GFS sticks to it's thingy.
time for a snack, get the cold ones in the cooler and up and away to hit the private natural pool off the Punta Cana grounds.

don't mess up that Erika weather while i am away for some hours.

Mike

 

[windeguy]

Recent path is showing more northerly. If it goes any more north it may miss the DR.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144744.shtml?5-daynl#contents

 

[bob saunders]

Rain, glorious rain here in Jarabacoa. actually SHOWERS FOR ABOUT 10-15 Min, then a break for 15, then rain again. It's great.

 

[caribmike]

Rain, glorious rain here in Jarabacoa. actually SHOWERS FOR ABOUT 10-15 Min, then a break for 15, then rain again. It's great.

What's that, "rain"?

 

[MikeFisher]

Rain, glorious rain here in Jarabacoa. actually SHOWERS FOR ABOUT 10-15 Min, then a break for 15, then rain again. It's great.

Bob,
sounds like you are dreaming.
come on,
let us know what ya smoking and share da shyt.
RAIN???
where the fukc are tha???

Mike

 

[bob saunders]

Well, it was great while it lasted, but seems to be over for now anyways. Hard enough that mini rivers were running down the street and the roads were devoid of motos for 30 minutes. Sound of silence- I hate those noisy f-CKERS.

 

[caribmike]

Went to Bavaro and back to Santo Domingo early today. All the way back and forth glaring sun. Looked to me nothing cloud-like worth mentioning on the way... :disappoin

 

[MikeFisher]

just back from our catamaran afternoon 15 minutes ago.
my baby gal slept in in her car seat and will not wake up again before it's school time 6AM in the morning,
the lil Chichi is commanding Mom and Tia around to tell that she def has no plans for school and give's a fukc on "sleep", whats that??

Erika did not make it.
it is not a struggling storm,
it is def a dying storm, nobody needs to get scared about a thing in the caribbean, doesn't matter where it goes to.
if it brings 3-5 inches of rain to the northern most lesser antilles or not, who care's?, important is that there's no threat fro human lifes out there.
the 3 inches margin would be a perfectly and floodless welcome watering,
5 inches would cause some floodings but stay far from any danger level.
myself, i don't think that San Juan will get more than 1 1/2-2 as the max.

the DR???
what ya think??
let's see it positive,
We Are the fukcing Las Veags of the Caribbean.
means,
we have the entertainment,
we have da chics(even the way better ones)
and we are the same dry than da darn Desert up there.

TS Erika is still shown on 40 knots winds, like the storm would stand up against it's odds,
but that's a lie.
Erika raised the central pressure up to 1006mb in the few hours i spent with the children on the water(perfectly calm waters off Juanillo btw),
the dvorak shots show that the winds are spread out, not organized at all anymore, and not powerful.
Erika will walk as what so ever power, most likely as a weak TS, over the northern Islands of the belt,
that touch will give da biach a hard kick in da butt.
and then the ex-storm get's the final blow by moving too close to the violent enemy which is the PR terrain.
what ever could survive that path(i see it dying, if it really keeps that path),
would not be any threat to the DR at any area in any way.
the worst case scenario would be some "rain" of much less powers than every usual cloudy winter day provides.
i don't know anybody around who would complain about such,
IF such rain happens in the first place.

fleddered

i don't think that the center of the remaining system will touch any inch of Puerto Rico in the first place,
but again,
what is unpowered moving out there named TS Erika,
would not cause mayor troubles if it would move right over my backyard over here on the East.

time for a next one,
hey,
we need at least one to bring some worth to mention rainfall over the whole Island.

sadly the odds are against us.
looks like that Gov nee's to stop the Plan de Regularization and focus on the real threats of Island Life, building up a couple or 3 or 5 more dams and have them watered before the next 3-5 years pass by bone dry,
otherwise this country will for the first time in it's history start a death toll due DROUGHT,
nobody cares about dry not arriving Storms.
a couple hrs after midnight i expect that Erika is shown what it is,
a Twin Now Show of Danny.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Well, it was great while it lasted, but seems to be over for now anyways. Hard enough that mini rivers were running down the street and the roads were devoid of motos for 30 minutes. Sound of silence- I hate those noisy f-CKERS.

a sweet lil dream.
a lil river running down da road,
a sweet lil dream of mine to see that here at my place.
i promise i will capture a short video and put it up here.
Motoco?os quiet??
well,
that would really be a real improvement up in the tourist/almost blended in expat areas like Cortecito and Bavaro,
as my lil village here is a dead end road, we have luckily very few of such, and the few ones are well known by everyone and you can tell 'em to calm the fukc down or ...

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Went to Bavaro and back to Santo Domingo early today. All the way back and forth glaring sun. Looked to me nothing cloud-like worth mentioning on the way... :disappoin

that fits perfectly with my own experience, since Danny started to be "sent over here".
not a drop of rain anywhere in my own surroundings.

Dry County.

Mike

 

[Natu]

What do you mean the next 3 - 5 years bone dry??

You mean that the drought will be much longer than expected?? When is this drought supposed to end?? When is "El Ni?o" supposed to end??

 

[MikeFisher]

What do you mean the next 3 - 5 years bone dry??

You mean that the drought will be much longer than expected?? When is this drought supposed to end?? When is "El Ni?o" supposed to end??

it's not El Ni?o at fault.
we are on a dry out period since a few years, the last 2 years it wenthefty for the greater antiles and surroundings, without el ni?o at stake.

anyways, Erika is a disapointment as Danny was, don't await any significant watering for the strom.
it is approaching the islands right now, and it will look like hard battled undone chic in the morning.
she will pass the northernmost island, leave some non threatening rianfalls over the Virgins,
miss puerto rico clearly on the NE
and pass as a azzkicked something well offshore along our northshores.
how strong the storm can recover once coming close and over the Bahamas?
who cares?
waters are the hottest there the tropical atlantic could provide,
i don't know what windshear will be present there in a few days,
but it will be long gone for Us once it starts to grow, IF it ever manages such growing up anywhere.
call the Colmadito and order your waterbucket,
as Erika will not fill up enough to run a laundry day with it.

Mike

 

[Natu]

it's not El Ni?o at fault.
we are on a dry out period since a few years, the last 2 years it wenthefty for the greater antiles and surroundings, without el ni?o at stake.

Ok.. And why is that??? Does it have an ending??

 

[Hillbilly]

The 5 a.m. Advisory says Erika is gaing a little strength.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 61.5 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion
should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward
Islands this morning, move near the Virgin Islands later today,
move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the
north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


But I note that the minimum central pressure has been at 1003 mb for the last two days at least.
This is not good for us who want rain...

HB

 

[MikeFisher]

last night the storm run it's last chance attempt to get noticed in the history books as a Hurricane and failed.
central pressure dropped down to 1001mb and max sustaned winds been (estimates by sat shot) running over 55knots, it looked like the storm would reach hurricane powers right before landfall on the Islands, but just 1hr later the pressure rised significantly to 1005mb.
hunters in the storm this morning did not find winds over 45knots.
thanks to Guadaloupe Radar we got exact estimates and a exact look on it from the grounds point of view.
Erika is a beaten Storm, all it has as powers are blown to it's East and Southeast quadrants, while on the north and west strong windshear beats it down and hinders any development on those sides.
Erika will not become a Hurricane as long as near the Island belt, PR or DR,
the max powers that could reach any Island on the further path during the next couple days is 45knots, and that will more likely be much less after touching the Eastern Side of Puerto Rico.

right now it drifts straight Westward on 280 degrees Heading, licking the wounds from the battle with the smallest Islands, so the sat loops give the impression that it would stay south and move over southern PR straight over the East of DR.
such will not happen.
steering winds on the mid level will move it WNW over or near eastern PR, along the PR north which should happen close enough to kick it's azz due the hard contact with the PR Mountains, furtheron it should wander along the DR Northshores on a safe distanceoffshore, without any DR Landfall.
after touching PR i don't think it can manage to produce windforces higher than 40knots, the storm may even go down completely, depends on how long for how close it interacts with PR Mountains.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

addy to explain above loop:
thecenter of the storm is located near the Top-Left of the dark green circle, almost not to be spotted on loops this morning,
as the Storm is not running in any good shape,
looks fleddered like the picture in my mirror after a night in town.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

as far as the lineup of further African Waves goes,
none developed into anything, conditions are not much in favor for a forming storm on the far to mid highway
and the SAL Layer/a prime protection shield is building up again and should be on high density over the first/eastern half of the highway within the next 24hrs.
during the "open shield" time frame no wave will leave the african continent, the next one is still further away over central Africa and anyways not a strong area.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

still heading westward.
a couple more hours and it will be too close/too far west to miss PR to the NE.
the models show it right over PR.
and that should knock it down hefty.

Mike

 

[KateP]

Meanwhile in Dominica https://www.facebook.com/hurricanecenterpr/videos/1135662813128109/?pnref=story

 

[MikeFisher]

Meanwhile in Dominica https://www.facebook.com/hurricanecenterpr/videos/1135662813128109/?pnref=story

nearly 9 inches of rain fell in a six-hour period at the Canefield Airport near Roseau, Dominica.
a walk over the middle of PR would slow the forwardspeed significantly down, raining down for more hours.
continously watching the system is the name of the game now.
PR is already under the farest NW'ern bands.
wind on the DR eastshores should start to rise constantly.

Mike