2019 Hurricane Season

M

MikeFisher

Guest
let it leave Africa first to see what conditions may be present then.
at the moment we are since a full week full hot here on the east and still not end in sight, zero winds, zero rain, even the offshore sea is a flat plate between here and PR.
that's all together too much beauty to worry about the weather that may happen end of the month.
 
R

rubio_higuey

Guest
The NHC is showing a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa this week. Mike what are your thoughts on this one please? They say tropical cyclone formation is unlikely this late in the season but are forecasting a 30% chance of development.
TS Noel passed by here late October 2007 (25-27) and brought very heavy rains... Mudslides in Haiti. Hurricane season is not over yet, let's be on alert .
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
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it looks like our 2019 season come's to an end a couple weeks early than expected.
while the eastern highway still has potential, the forecasts show the upper atmosphere winds on the rise.
so by mid week upper level winds should be too strong to allow any storm rises.
if this is temporarily or already the constant conditions/end of season, we should know by next weekend.

as for now, Disturbance #1, the Tropical Wave that hit the eastern highway, is strong and rising powers.
it should manage to become a TD later tomorrow or Tuesday, but then it will go down quickly.
anyways, steering winds at it's location off the African west coast move it NW along the Cabo Verde Islands and out to Sea.

Disturbance#3 is just a weak Tropical Wave mid highway, conditions on the western highway will not allow development.
it should arrive over the lesser Antilles by Wednesday and enter the Caribbean sea, but it will stay just a tropical wave.

no dangers anywhere out there expected for our Island
it is very likely that we can call off the season by next weekend.
 
J

jstarebel

Guest
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it looks like our 2019 season come's to an end a couple weeks early than expected.
while the eastern highway still has potential, the forecasts show the upper atmosphere winds on the rise.
so by mid week upper level winds should be too strong to allow any storm rises.
if this is temporarily or already the constant conditions/end of season, we should know by next weekend.

as for now, Disturbance #1, the Tropical Wave that hit the eastern highway, is strong and rising powers.
it should manage to become a TD later tomorrow or Tuesday, but then it will go down quickly.
anyways, steering winds at it's location off the African west coast move it NW along the Cabo Verde Islands and out to Sea.

Disturbance#3 is just a weak Tropical Wave mid highway, conditions on the western highway will not allow development.
it should arrive over the lesser Antilles by Wednesday and enter the Caribbean sea, but it will stay just a tropical wave.

no dangers anywhere out there expected for our Island
it is very likely that we can call off the season by next weekend.
I've noticed the currents starting to turn too and just in time.. We're preparing the mermaid to head out for new sailing adventures.

Thanks for taking the time to call out storms again this year Mike. Wishing you a great "Off Season".. Hope the fishing is good too.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
I've noticed the currents starting to turn too and just in time.. We're preparing the mermaid to head out for new sailing adventures.

Thanks for taking the time to call out storms again this year Mike. Wishing you a great "Off Season".. Hope the fishing is good too.
Smooth Sails to you, buddy.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
If anything was coming - I expect we'd have heard by now
my thoughts are completely focused on hot chis and cold drinks.
came home right now from drinkets shopping, $250.- to prepare the cooler for our outing tomorrow with friends and my family to Saona Island for the day.
when I look out the window it is since at least 2 weeks pure sunshine, calmest to zero winds, no waves between DR and PR,
absolutely nothing to worry about and all that without a weather forecast.
as none of the actually running tropical waves is associated with any strong, not even mediocre low pressure system,
there is no way that anything could pop up near the island any time soon.
so a check of the outlook for the rest of the season has to wait til sunday afternoon or after the weekend.
I guess it's already over, but will take a look on it soon of course.

cheers on a torching hot weekend
even that the debil wave over the southern lesser Antilles could bring some clouds over me tomorrow.
but with such as the worst possible case, I say Island life is fine, lol
 
C

cobraboy

Guest
It's been so nice we are still using the swimming pool here in the mountains.
 
W

william webster

Guest
I am happy you're happy Mike

Because you make us all happy !!

gracias.... muchas,
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
It's been so nice we are still using the swimming pool here in the mountains.
yeah.
this is my 25th Fall on the Island and it is on top of the rankings.
it is absolutely not the norm that I have such weeks long constant hot temps and no rain and super calmest to zero winds and super calm ocean in October, here on my side of the Isle.
simply beautiful
and nothing to worry about any weather.
Enjoy
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
looks all quiet out there with nothing in sight.
conditions are hostile against storm development, so I do not expect anything else out of our East for this season.
the Caribbean Sea, even not under much favorable conditions, could still bring up weaker TDs or TSs.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
Any thoughts on how/when this Saharan Dust may dissipate?
hopefully it will stay for more weeks.
it is a significant part for this picture perfect Fall weather we have here on the east the last weeks,
2019 is the best Fall ever weather wise, I think.
high pressure dominates, dry atmosphere, barely any rain anywhere, lowest calm winds.