2019 Hurricane Season

C

caribmike

Guest
The new, big one leaving Africa now. I found that - hopefully it goes that way...

 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
Tropical Storm Karen is up and running and over the Windward Islands.
the system slowed down to half the prior forward speed, which allowed for a quick intensifier.
Hunter Data and resulting steering outlook show what I awaited yesterday afternoon,
as a Storm this one will move sharp towards the N and stay away from DR.
it may cross eastern PR, ore likely it will pass PR close on their East, which would bring only rain to the PR mainland, as the western side of the storm is weak, almost all powers are concentrated on it's East, bringing the closest Islands to Puerto Rico's East again under storm forces.
as for it's Influence on the DR, we will stay unbothered from TS Karen, zero winds to reach our soil, some cloud cover on the easternmost areas like Cap Cana/Punta Cana would be the maximum, most likely together with some short while strong downpours in the undangerous range.
conditions for further development of TS Karen are not favorable in the eastern Caribbean sea, so I see actually no chance to get a next hurricane up.
Karen should stay a simple TS bringing some rain max a couple hundred miles out of the center and TS Force winds Only out of the E of it's center, tracking mostly N/NNWwards pointing towards Bermuda.
the Tracking outlook for late this week for Karen is very uncertain. it could be turned NE over the open mid atlantic by the stream lingering NW of us, but it could also keep some powers and continue a longer journey WNW towards the mid east of the USA. to reach the USA after the next week it would need to intensify into a stronger storm, to me it looks more like it will never upgrade from TS status, so it should stay away from land(other than maybe Bermuda) after it has passed the E of PR.

this morning we had here on the southern tip of the east shores, I hit it in Cap Cana, a couple short and windfree but heavy downpours from the farest southernmost scattered tailend of Jerry. such will continue the next few hours along the DR East from S to N as Jerry continue's it's trail towards northern directions away from us.
here at my 'hood the sun is already back out, conditions are the calmest of the year, offshore sea is a flat plate, zero wind and the boats will bring back loads of dorado/mahi today, beautiful for fishing.

the system which hit atlantic waters on the far East seem's also to run as expected.
it should be a TD/more likely Tropical Storm Lorenzo very soon/Today.
it hit a water a good piece north of the 10thN, so it's tracking should point NNW out to the tropical Atlantic's graveyard without bothering land, other than some showers for the Cabo Verde Islands.
it is also almost guaranteed that this one will become a Hurricane, tho, conditions on the far east are actually very favorable for development.

under the line:
No dangers anywhere out there for our Island Paradise and none in vicinity for the reminder of the new week.
the stormy season move's high active, but we stay ourselfes out of the danger zone so far.

have a great sunday everyone
 
B

bob saunders

Guest
Sky was rocking and rolling for several hours last night here in Jarabacoa, along with hard rain.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
while nothing changed on powers, TS Karen did not complete the sharp turn, yet, is still heading WNW even that it left the Windward Islands already clear behind.
we watch, as it may come closer than expected towards south central PR or even closer to PC.
steering condition will sure force it to a N/NNW course, but the slower the turn the more West/closer to our Cape the Storm would come.
still, no danger for DR in sight, Karen's powers are on the storm's Western side, so even a closer pass to our east shores would not put us in harms way for wind powers, but it could bring a rough surf on top of our anyways strong actual tides, that would not look very nice on our many sorrily already eroded beach stretches.
a 50 miles closer or further away will make a big difference on the ''optic'' of our Punta Cana Beaches.
tourism is already struggling extremely this low summer season, media hypes about washed out beach areas is not something that would assist to gain little by little some customers back over here.
Karen should be on our Altitude by Tuesday Noon, hopefully a couple hundred miles East of the Cap and the more the better.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
Tropical Storm Karen finished it's turn and is on it's NNW track today.
the storm will not intensify and should stay in the actual tracking for the next 3 days or so.
this will bring it over eastern puerto rico, all safe for us Islanders on Hispañola.
Tropical Storm Lorenzo is up, a early starter located just south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
this one should be the next Hurricane by wednesday.
Lorenzo should not bring danger to any Land, it looks like a runner for the graveyard to the open mid Atlantic.
no dangers out anywhere to report about for our Island.
we are on a nice calm sunny start into this week.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
TS Lorenzo is intensifying and organizing well, there is the potential for the next Mayor Hurricane by next weekend.
lucky for everybody that it will run open central atlantic waters by then.

Karen couldn't stand the storm hostile conditions in the caribbean sea and went down to a TD.
the Depression will hit south central PR tomorrow mid morning/noon and wander mid PR from S to N during tomorrow.
the further path of Karen is very uncertain once it left PR a day behind, it could become a long living system lingering around up north for a while due unclear steering forces.
flattered Karen's cloudmasses will for part get cut loose from the former storm and spread out, we should also get those over here over the DR. i don't know if they still contain much rain then, but there should not be anything dangerous left, maybe again a day of clouds and some showers, nothing else.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
my earlier asumptions about TS Karen after the pass over PR seem to come true.
the models also keep it much longer alive, lingering without any real movement out North of the greater Antilles.
this one will still be around ina week from today and if it moves, that could go towards anywhere.
since it entered the eastern caribbean sea the storm is running under harsh conditions, but it survived, that shows a well organized running system. luckily for us this one could not reach that organizational level a day earlier before it entered the caribbean sea.

Hurricane Lorenzo is the awaited power machine and intensifies even quicker than i already awaited.
it should be a Mayor Hurricane by tomorrow noon.
as such it will turn more towards northern directions and not bother any land.

nothing bad on the radar for us for the next 4-5 days to come.
 
T

TropicalPaul

Guest
Mike how are the conditions looking over the next few weeks? You said earlier that September and October would be bad this year, are you still thinking the same regarding October or has anything changed?
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
Mike how are the conditions looking over the next few weeks? You said earlier that September and October would be bad this year, are you still thinking the same regarding October or has anything changed?
no changes so far.
last week conditions over the highway improved and are actually on the eastern half perfect for storm development,
as seen on Mayor Hurricane Lorenzo. systems pop up there and can grow from scratch to a max power in no time.
if Lorenzo would have hit atlantic waters just a few hundred miles further south, then we would have had a monster walking towards the NEern Caribbean Islands early next week.
as powerful as Lorenzo runs, it will survive a long time even when it wanders cooler waters and could continue as a strong hurricane force subtropical storm for a much longer time.
it could finally find some land to threaten, that would be the Azores Islands.
those favorable conditions are expected to widen westward, so by early October we should have favorable conditions for storm development over almost all the tropical highway.
if those also reach the Caribbean Sea is hard to tell, the eastern Caribbean Sea is actually on the hostile side of the scale against storm development.
the forecasts do not show any signs for a soon break off of the season,
this year we have to epect to have a long running season til end October, hopefully not longer than that.

Karen, as awaited and mentioned a few times before, does not have much steering powers.
in general that storm been to move it's WNW track, but fronts on the way do not allow such direction at this moment.
it is lingering half way between the Caribbean and Bermuda and could move into any direction the next days.
this morning the steering models show a completely different direction for Karen than they did last night.
this can change again, nobody has a clue abut the final direction, due leak of significant/strong steering directions.
at least no models expect restrengthening of the storm, so it should run dead in some days up there.

so far no further strong wave in sight for the next 2-3 days to come.

as long as Karen doesn't stick on position and send it's far southern tail end here,
so long we are looking forward on a hot nice weekend.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
all clear out there for us Islanders for this weekend.
the only active storm left is Mayor Hurricane Lorenzo.
it will stay a long living power machine.
Lorenzo is on it'sway out, NNEwards and later NEwards passing near or over the Azores on Cat1-2 Hurricane Force.
early next weekend Lorenzo can be expected to arrive in northern Europe/around Ireland
as a post tropical cyclone/sub tropical storm of at least TS/more likely Hurricane wind Force.
Lorenzo been the perfect power machine, lucky it did not reach a position where steering winds would have brought it to the Caribbean, as this one had all the potential for that rare kind of a perfect super storm.

the models do not expect any system to get active for the next days,
so all we can do is to enjoy a calm hot sunny weekend
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
nothing bad to spot out there for this week so far.
all running Waves are weak ones and not expected to become any storm,
like the one which passed over the island this weekend.
it brought a fresh good feeling cloudy day here on the East yesterday, a shower in the morning and some more last night at my backyard, beautiful. actually the surroundings of the house are lush green and look healthy.

the same goes for the next Wave hitting atlantic waters today and all in between Africa and the Caribbean.
here on the East we are already sunny again today, with just some lighter clouds lingering still in vicinity.
 
C

caribmike

Guest
It all looks quiet could it be that it was all for this season? Or is it to early to tell?
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
It all looks quiet could it be that it was all for this season? Or is it to early to tell?
it looks indeed quiet, despite the model forecasts to have now perfect storm development conditions, but there aren't.
nothing on the radar other than some models developing a system mid north atlantic moving Westwards.
I see completely nothing I could write about.
we will see what conditions forecasts tell in a week, maybe we are already over for 2019,
that wouldn't be anything bad.
 
D

DR Solar

Guest
Ordered RO membrane replacements for my 3 units that are well water supplied. They are suppose to be good for 2 years. With the ocean salt water intruding due to lack of rain, they lasted only one year.

My weather stations are showing lots of thunder many times and we hear some. But we don't get much rain, if any, at all.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
my weather stations do not hear thunder.
the only measure temps, winds, water amounts and wave heights.
to hear Thunder I use my 8 years ole fashioned system, a 2lbs Chihuahua named Lucy.
she can hear thunder from many many miles away and signal's her "finding" by jumping under the bed and not coming back out for a couple hrs at least, lol.
 
D

DR Solar

Guest
Ya, we have a thunder alert dog too. We have had several weather stations over the years with most lasting about 1 year at best due to rusting, moving parts stop moving, wire/wifi connections fail and having to change batteris on the top of the roof.... that have leaked.

Have two of these now. No exposed metal or moving parts. The high pole mounted unit is solar so don't have to change batteries. (pool cleaning pole works great.) Over a year and really like them.

https://weatherflow.com/smart-home-weather-stations/
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
Ya, we have a thunder alert dog too. We have had several weather stations over the years with most lasting about 1 year at best due to rusting, moving parts stop moving, wire/wifi connections fail and having to change batteris on the top of the roof.... that have leaked.

Have two of these now. No exposed metal or moving parts. The high pole mounted unit is solar so don't have to change batteries. (pool cleaning pole works great.) Over a year and really like them.

https://weatherflow.com/smart-home-weather-stations/
I did not know that one and have to say it looks very teasing, and on a very low price.
there may be a new christmas gift for myself in order.
thanks for the link
 
J

jstarebel

Guest
Ordered RO membrane replacements for my 3 units that are well water supplied. They are suppose to be good for 2 years. With the ocean salt water intruding due to lack of rain, they lasted only one year.

My weather stations are showing lots of thunder many times and we hear some. But we don't get much rain, if any, at all.
Your RO membranes should last a lot longer than 2 years with good pre-treatment and proper membrane recovery / flux rates. If you wish, send me your well water data and your system data, and I will be glad to have a look and run the numbers. Things like iron, manganese, and calcium reduce membrane life expectancy, and usually can be neutralized.
 
T

TropicalPaul

Guest
The NHC is showing a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa this week. Mike what are your thoughts on this one please? They say tropical cyclone formation is unlikely this late in the season but are forecasting a 30% chance of development.