2019 Hurricane Season

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MikeFisher

Guest
yes, such tropical formations nicely running keep the powers up as subtropical storms.
the transformation from a tropical to a subtropical storm happens when they run close to the Pole, so they get caught up in a front and run then fueling of powers by interaction of warm and cold air in the upper Troposphere.
as such they run coldest waters and can reach northern Europe and the cold Canuck Maritimes with windspeeds of a TS.
such subtropical storm looks very different to a tropical storm. it's strongest winds are in a windband minimum 100 miles from the Center of circulation and the center is a wide cloudfree area.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
who may get the surrounding rain?
our chances look very slim.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=pr&band=08&length=24

Dorian, as a Post Tropical Storm, has still powers over eastern Canada.

Gabrielle is crossing the Graveyard and should make the transformation into a subtropical storm.
as such it will not die, but pay northern europe a visit.

Invest 2, a couple hundred miles NE of the northern islands, will not become a storm in our vicinity.
sorrily it seems to stay far out, so i doubt we will get any rain out of it.
once past our soil, moving towards the Bahamas on a similar track as Dorian did, chances grow higher to get a storm forming out of the system.
on the caribbean's NE, it's actual position, high windshear will not allow such development.

Invest 1, several hundred miles W of the Cabo Verde Islands, is about to reach the highway's half way point.
it is way too early to discard this system to form a storm, but until now it is a wave with little signs and incredients to form a storm. we will watch it, in case it changes face once reaching the final 1200 miles point east of the caribbean.

nothing near our island to report about
enjoy a great sunday everyone
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
a quick update, but nothing bad in vicinity of the Isle.

the Disturbance we watched the since before the weekend, is now on it's final 1000 miles approach to the Lesser Antilles.
conditions with good windshear and a fair amount of dry saharan air are not ready to allow a storm to form.
it is just a tropical wave moving from E to W through the central caribbean sea and should not have any effects on our Island weather, nor would there be any indicators that it could form up a storm anywhere near the Isle.

the new Tropical Wave, located SE of the Cabo Verde Islands, hit Atlantic waters on similar area and will wander a similar/the same tracking. it has no chance to develop the next days.
we will watch it once it reach's the 45thW, but by now for the coming weekend conditions there do not look in any favor to form a Storm.

for this week all looks fine so far for us.
 
B

bob saunders

Guest
Good rainfall in Jarabacoa last night. My weeds needed it, not.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
update for this weekend.
nothing to fear, we should have an other torching hot one ahead of us here on the eastern beaches.

the 1st of 3 active waves passed us as expected and is moving as a TD towards the US.

the 2nd Wave is close to the Highway's half way point and did not develop anything so far, as the eastern highway is a fairly dry zone at the moment.
slow development of this wave is possible on the final 1000 miles towards the Antilles, but so far no indicators for anything quick nor strong.
anyways, Tracking winds should bring it towards the NEernmost Islands or even pass on their NE.
we watch, but at this moment no indications of anything for us.

the 3rd wave is now located SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands and will run a very dry environment on the eastern highway for many days, so before mid next week there should not be any changes to show.
it is too early for a good tracking forecast, but it looks very likely to be running more towards the empty mid Atlantic than towards the Caribbean Islands.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
the weekend did not show changes on our outlook from Friday.
we had a torching hot weekend here on the east, just short unsignificant showers yesterday morning, no rain worth to be named rain.

and the further look into this week does not change.
the first 2 of the 3 active highway waves "may"bring some rain to PR, maybe even to DR, but chances are on the slimmer side. none will develop into anything anywhere near our Island, so no storm dangers anywhere out there for us.

the only wave with good chances to get development moving before the next weekend is the 3rd wave, located on the eastern highway, but as already mentioned on the outlook before this weekend, it will move more towards the central atlantic ocean, not towards the Caribbean so far.

here I marked the 3 active waves:

View attachment 3160

here, on the water vapor sat screen, you can follow live how the little present moisture moves, to see if you get a chance to catch some rain the next days:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=car&band=08&length=12
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
no changes so far on our highway,
the waves move as already expected last week for this week so far.
the only one to develop into a storm is the wave over 1000 east of the antilles,
and that one is so far on the expected NWern tracking to miss us far out on our NE.
we already have an other 2 active waves on the highway now, on the far eastern highway.
by now no development to await, it is too early to guess on the future of those two.
No dangers to spot out there for us at this moment.
have a great torching hot humid week everyone, lol
it is super calm still around my backyard
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest

masa, much too early to guess.
TD 10 will be declared TS Jerry any moment, most likely this afternoon on the 5PM update of the NHC.
Thursday night it should be Hurricane Jerry starting its passage NE of the Antilles.
it will stay NE of all Islands and pass on a safe distance NE/N of PR and DR.
it is an other one the Bahamas and the SE-USA can deal with.
as the hurricane is not built nor running, yet, its final look/size/rainzones can not be told by now.
in general, it will be a tropical cyclone on our N, so we will stay on its weaker S, means less winds and less rains for us.
IF we get anything.
this is by now not looking like much of any bother for us.

Islandlife is Goood
keep the beers cold and leave those storms on their prefered route to the NW of Us
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
a little mid week update about our surroundings.

the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea, located south central of the DR, continues producing limited shower activities.
here on the SE today we had a light cloudy day, at my place and on my way during the area today some streets been light wet, myself I did not catch any drop on the windshield anywhere.
the system moves slowly WNW for the next days, so we should get in different DR areas some needed rain, nothing mayor, for the next 2-3 days. development into a storm while near our Island I name impossible.

Tropical Storm Jerry is struggling, development is going very slow, but I see it to get done little by little.
I give Jerry a max 48hrs window to be a Cat1 Hurricane, from late tomorrow afternoon for 24-max 48hrs before conditions will get it back down on TS force again.
zero change on tracking patterns/conditions for Jerry, so it should pass us far out North.
it move's the rainloads(anyways nothing too huge so far) ahead of the storm on it's NW, strongest winds will be located on it's NE, so the DR will be on the weak side for rain and winds and again, it will not come close to the Island.
the actual currents on our North should then even turn it more northwards, towards open Atlantic, so the Bahamas should stay quiet this time, too.

the Wave out on around mid Highway, reaching the 40thW tonight, is running a southern lane barely above the 10thN.
on such southern position when already half way towards the Caribbean, it is very very likely to get this wave into the south eastern Caribbean sea.
once in the SEern Caribbean sea, even already on the final 500 miles of approaching the Windward Islands, steering winds should be the same as now, a WNWern direction, so it can be expected to move on a similar/same track as the Wave we actually have on our south. by the weekend we will see that tracking more precise.
on actual conditions and the conditions shown in the forecasts for the next days I do not see a storm brewing out of this system this week. it could become an other friendly Wave to bring some water in limited harmless and needed amounts.

so far all is good for our Island this week and nothing bad in sight for the coming weekend.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
no big news o the weather front since the last update.

View attachment 3164

1)
the Tropical Wave S of Hispañola.
it moves very very slow on it's NWern tracking, so it will bring clouds and some showers for the next 2-3 days to DR, most to S central, SW and W.
no danger that this disturbance could form a storm while near DR.
2)
Tropical Storm Jerry also running as expected.
it will be a Cat1 Hurricane later today and miss the northern islands on their NE.
Jerry should stay in a nice safe distance from DR, as we will be on the weaker side of the storm and teh Hurricane status will not be a lasting event, i guess it will be back down to a TS after just 24hrs, it will sure not last longer than 48hrs, so when coming to it's closest approach to our Island it will only be a TS.
nothing to fear from Jerry.
3)
the Tropical Wave on mid Highway passed last night the 40thW on around 12N, so it will wander WWNW towards the Windward Islands to enter the Eastern Caribbean Sea. it should be on a very similar path as the actual south of us Wave took, so we get the same chances on some safe rainfalls again and drought conditions on the SE, S, SW, W and NW should be nicely solved in a week from now.
I do not see this disturbance to form a Storm anywhere near DR, but it is still a piece of Track away, so we keep watching.
4)
this good looking Tropical Wave should hit Atlantic Waters around Saturday. still widespread it9 final centering point over water is hard to guess. once S of the Cabo Verde Islands it should Center somewhere between the 8th and 15thN, so this far out impossible to guess if it will come on the path for the eastern caribbean or more N like Jerry did move. we will know that nicely on time next week then.
conditions for early starting storm development are not hostile but not anything good neither, so it is very unlikely to see any storm out there before the half way point of the highway, IF any development show9s in the first place.
this is a very long shot look on a Tropical Wave still for an other 48hrs over Western Africa, so nothing to loose time on at this moment.

under the line, looks all good so far for DR, some needed rainfalls to be received and not expected in any dangerous amounts, other than for the well known areas where since a couple decades no buildings-housing should be present-allowed.

sure we will continue to monitor TS Jerry til it passed, we never know what unepected changes could show up,
but from the very beginning and until now it moves and develops as expected, in a non harmful way for DR.
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
as promised our tropical highway stay's active and should continue for many more weeks to come.
I hope my lil map does not confuse due too many notes,
it was many more for myself but I cut em down to the basics to stay understandable.

View attachment 3165

1)
our small Tropical Wave which brought appreciated water to many areas of the island.
it move's very slow and is on it's way outta here.

2)
Hurricane Jerry keep's moving as expected and will not come any near to us.
if it ever threaten's any land, then that would be Bermuda, as it should stay active for a longer while.

3)
the Tropical Wave approaching the Windward Islands, on a similar track as the 1-Wave, is waaay bigger than the 1-Wave and collected huge waterloads during today. this is a sign of organization and we should see a storm/TD before it wanders over the Windwards. conditions then over the Caribbean Sea are not in favor of development, so we most likely will see a very wide and wet Wave or TD bringing waterloads supposedly over the appreciated limit for some areas.
as it is developing, the tracking for a storm/TD would change more to the NW/NNW then the prior awaited WNW if it would have stayed a simple Wave/Disturbance. so it could bring full rains over PR or steer those directly towards the SE shores of DR.
all collected data about the system by now is solely Satelite Estimates, we know how unprecise they can be once a system changes from a disturbance into a Storm. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to start investigation of the system tomorrow afternoon, from there on we may see a different scenario, so this one is to watch out for, specially as it move's on very fast 20mphr westward, a quick arrival, where ever that finally will be.

4)
this tropical wave will hit the highway tomorrow and shows it's center piece for southern lanes.
conditions theer for the eastern highway look good, so late this weekend/early next week we may see the next TD there, this time when the system is still way out east, which give's such storm a lot of time to get it's act together on the next 2000 miles westward. it is way too early to look on highway conditions for the time when it hit's the halfway point,
but positioning and activity together with the good conditons south of the Cabo Verde Islands make it also a system to look out for.

for this weekend we will look out for #3, as this wave will pass the Windward Islands already tomorrow night and the present steering conditions show no indictors why it should slow down significantly on it's forward speed, other than in case the Hunters report tomorrow afternoon a better organized system than seen on Sat coverage, then a Storm could grow quickly E of the Windwards and would most likely slow down a lot on forward speed.
this #3 Wave stays a big "?" til we get real on site data tomorrow late afternoon.
 
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R

reilleyp

Guest
Mike,
There is a storm coming off of Africa, and on the NHC website, on the 5 day outlook they are giving it a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane. Do you find that odd that they give such high odds for a disturbance that is still on land?
 
M

MikeFisher

Guest
Mike,
There is a storm coming off of Africa, and on the NHC website, on the 5 day outlook they are giving it a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane. Do you find that odd that they give such high odds for a disturbance that is still on land?
not odd at all, even that such long range shot contains of course highest %%% of uncertainties.
that one is the Wave I mentioned last evening as #4 on my outlook.
Sat observations improved immensely the last years, this #4 is over west african land already a compact mass moving together under one central command, that together with good development assisting conditions over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic make it very likely that such system could form a Storm 2000 miles away from here after the weekend.
yesterday it looked like hitting Atlantic waters tonight, today it looks slowed down and hit water tomorrow noon/afternoon.
I will take a look on the forecasts and conditions later today, after the Data from the 1st Hurricane Hunter Flight is in about the disturbance east of the windward islands, as that is the one we have to monito, even that it looks like it will be more of a concern for eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands than Hispañola, as chances are very high to get a storm formed out of it and that would bring it on a NW/NNWern tracking.
as a simple tropical wave, which was expected out of it several days ago, its tracking would have been more or less the way of the small Wave which just passed our South.