2020 Hurricane Season

Caonabo

ABINADER 2020
Sep 27, 2017
4,971
1,069
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Mr. Mike,
In this down time before the current season begins, could you share your thoughts with the community regarding the differences between the various spaghetti models that exist, and which ones you tend to lean on more, and which ones you tend to disregard, and why?
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
i have no real personal fav of the models.
every few seasons an other one stands out a bit of its prior "ranking"' due better than awaited accuracy.
they are developed steadily,all the time, all year long, each by many different scientists.
teh last years the European model prooved itself as extraorinarily accurate over the rest in case of tracking.
not last year, nothing to watch an d no chance for proof for any model,
but in 2016 and the specially in 2017 with Irma and Maria, the european tracking been spot on that i thought i could walk the line of powers in just a 100 meter distance to the border of danger all the time both storms went along and sadly also over the neighboured Islands and extremely close to our coast.
i was at the closest moments less than 10 mls from the Center and we had hurricane force winds blowing for quiet a long while at our place.
we still lived at our oceanfront place in Cabeza de Toro Sept 2017.
sorrily, for reasos related to my daughter's school, we left the Beach Place after 13 years of beach joy in the backyard.
we live since then a few miles off the beach up in Veron, so i miss my eye obseravtions of the skies and the ocean, which i could have 24/7 before, now i only have that view when i spend my mornings at the Cap Cana Marina.
anyways,
there is no real need to have a fav model, the Pro's at NOAA do the right selection for us.
what they show as their awaited tracking, is the compromise out of a dozen mayor models, cutting out the ones who are way off the common line of the rest.
so waht they show since years as a forecasted tracking for several days out, is magcally really accurate stuff, as accurate as anythng could get, when talking predictions of those fabulous powers of mom nature.
teh differences to disagree with models, once in a while, and the last years less and less happening, is on the final approaches, the final maybe turns and twists.
because thats when the local circumstances and real at the moment conditions of each local area come into play and can on small details result in a big difference.
a storm hitting the Barahona Peninsula cross over from SE to WNE and then W would be one thing,
low populated and by NOAA general standards a "safe"way to go for the DR.
BUT,
a slightest change on direction just a few hrs prior to such awaited landfall,
would bring the same storm into our capital city SE to NW running.
high populated, a worst case scenario for any storm doing landfall in DR.
teh difference for a NOAA forecast obetween both scenarios would be a "nothing", in both cases they would have predicted the path correctly and super accurate.
the outcome, sure everybody can imagine the difference between the 2 described impacts in case of "damalge/devastation".
those models are formed since decades,developed daily over decades and still developed every day,
to give a as long as possible and the same time as accurate as possible forecast, several days before such hit happens.
if a storm then hits 50 mls west or east of the forecasted Hitpoint, well, thats an Accurate forecast 5 days or so out.
every year those models get also more exact on the final approach forecasts, but thats the time frame/phse before landfall where they are still "leaking" the highest accuracy. those final approach hrs have to be seen and calculated for every single storm and for every single location Individually.and all that with all the time changing/different local conditions at the time a storm approachs.
long post, sorry, finally short answer:
no real fav model.
IF a storm will come close to our soil this season, the i hope we had prior a number of storms whos tracking forecasts by the different models show us at the end which ones are the best to trust ones for this season,to the take a average line out of the "best" 3-4 models of the actual season.
 

MarJD

Member
Aug 29, 2012
43
41
17
2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
I see my son got his name on the list. He better stay away from DR.
 

Caonabo

ABINADER 2020
Sep 27, 2017
4,971
1,069
113
It seems that a B for Bertha has hit the board.
Mr. Fisher, will this be a Big Bertha? 🏌️‍♂️
 

Cdn_Gringo

Well-known member
Apr 29, 2014
7,117
188
63
Sosua got rain yesterday night for the first time in memory. It rained hard for about 2 minutes. Everything is now clean and sparkling. :)
 

etolw

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2018
702
112
63
Sosua got rain yesterday night for the first time in memory. It rained hard for about 2 minutes. Everything is now clean and sparkling. :)
Noooo. I am waiting for rain, want to spread fertilizer in the garden.
(Not sewages);) Cabarete
And CORAAPLATA needs rain too.

Every last days the forecasted rain is missing(n)
 

Olly

Active member
Mar 12, 2007
1,663
15
38
There is a disturbance east on Barbados 96L that has the early track analysis taking it through the DR in about 5 days as a CAT1 . I am sure Mike will comment further but be aware. More information on https://stormcarib.com/
Thanks Gert for hosting Storm Carib Web Site.
Olly and the Team