2020 Hurricane Season

[Dolores]

Isaias Update: Storm forecast to enter between Punta Cana and Santo Domingo coasts

The director of the Center for Emergency Operations (COE), General Juan Manuel Mendez in the evening press conference forecast eight inches of rain for several areas across all of the Dominican Republic from early on Thursday. He forecast flooding because top soil is hard after weeks of drought.

General Mendez said the storm is expected to enter the DR between eastern La Altagracia (Punta Cana) and Santo Domingo provinces to exit by the northwest. He said the storm is packing winds of 75 kph.

General Juan Mendez said a red alert has been issued for the provinces of La Altagracia, La Romana, San Pedro de Macoris, San Cristóbal and for Greater Santo Domingo. He said the whole nation, nevertheless, should prepare to receive heavy rains and winds.

During the press conference to announce the latest on the storm, Gloria Ceballos, director of the National Meteorological Office (Onamet) said the forecast is for the storm to become sufficiently organized so it can be officially named on Wednesday evening.

The US National Hurricane Center reports the storm has taken a more southernly track. See the track over the past hours:

2pm: 16.2N 64.7W
4pm: 16.3N 65.2W
5pm: 16.4N 65.6W
8pm: 16.0N 66.3W

 

[Caonabo]

As of 8pm local Barceló time, the storm weighs in as such......

8:00 PM AST Wed Jul 29
Location: 16.0°N 66.3°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

 

[Caonabo]

Isaias Update: Storm forecast to enter between Punta Cana and Santo Domingo coasts

The director of the Center for Emergency Operations (COE), General Juan Manuel Mendez in the evening press conference forecast eight inches of rain for several areas across all of the Dominican Republic from early on Thursday. He forecast flooding because top soil is hard after weeks of drought.

General Mendez said the storm is expected to enter the DR between eastern La Altagracia (Punta Cana) and Santo Domingo provinces to exit by the northwest. He said the storm is packing winds of 75 kph and is on a southeast-northeast track.

General Juan Mendez said a red alert has been issued for the provinces of La Altagracia, La Romana, San Pedro de Santo Domingo, San Cristóbal and for Greater Santo Domingo. He said the whole nation, nevertheless, should prepare to receive heavy rains and winds.

During the press conference to announce the latest on the storm, Gloria Ceballos, director of the National Meteorological Office (Onamet) said the forecast is for the storm to become sufficiently organized so it can be officially named on Wednesday evening.

The National Hurricane Center reports the storm has taken a more southernly track. Over the past hours:

2pm: 16.2N 64.7W
4pm: 16.3N 65.2W
5pm: 16.4N 65.6W
8pm: 16.0N 66.3W

San Pedro de Santo Domingo?
Petromacorisanos would beg to differ.

 

[caribmike]

 

[caribmike]

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/ Not our Mike...

Kinda big changes tonight. NHC indicated a SW shift in the models at 8pm. They show the updated position here but do not adjust the track until 11pm. This should shift things south and west with the new track coming. NOW what does that mean? Maybe the odds of east coast FL and east coast less. Maybe more crossing over Hispaniola and east Cuba helping keep weak. Maybe even more south missing land and fueling off the warm western Caribbean. Lots to watch. But the shifts west continue. No true center yet so things aren't solid. But IMO more into Florida and an eastern Gulf track. We will sea.

 

[Caonabo]

As well, this storm is yet to be named. It is still called PTC 9.
Is DR1 making the call?

 

[caribmike]

OUR Mike's opinion:


the NHC doe still show the Storm to become a TS tonight and tracking into the Yuma/La Romana area on full force.
I dare to disagree on both, powers and tracking.
to do so the Storm would need to turn steeply towards NNW before midnight, and even due the interaction with PR I do not see the reason why it should move that way.
my personal observation:
a TD did not manage to form a real center due it's huge size and dry air.
due the actually happening interaction with the PR High Ranges it is loosing significant powers of it's former heavy NE Quadrant, a lot of the rain carried there will spread out/get taken off the circulation.
the Low Pressure Center of TD9 is now located SSW of Puerto Rico and will be South of the Mona Passage in just a couple hours/2-3 hrs from now.
to me the Low will avoid the High pressure on our North and stay South, tracking well farther Westwards befor afirst Landfall.
it's 2nd strong Quadrant is the Storm's SW Quadrant and that one will stay out over Sea until it passed our Soil.
we already have this evening on/off rainfalls here on the East from the Western part, wind is this evening so far here over land less gusting than it did during late afternoon.
my Tracking:
1st Landfall will be over the Barahona Peninsula as the most Eastern Point and maybe even more West over the Haitian Peninsula.
we will get tonight the rain wee urgently needed, yes, as usual even during non stormy rainfalls, we will have flooded areas and streets, but thats better than to continue with this year's drought.
we could at some locations receive 50mphr winds, but for most i would see 40mphr as the max to measure on DR Terrain.
where rainfalls will have much stronger effects is the areas at our high mountain ranges, as that is where strong rainareas get stuck and rain down for a longer time.
we will see what direction it is heading by midnight, but so far, considering the strong and Huuuge System forecasted to arrive as a powerful storm, I say we get spared from a ugly night.

 

[Caonabo]

The problem I catch with the 8pm update is that the storm is slowing down. Once in the mid 20 mph's, it has dropped to 18mph.
This gives it every chance to build more moisture.

 

[Dolores]

As of 8pm local Barceló time, the storm weighs in as such......

8:00 PM AST Wed Jul 29
Location: 16.0°N 66.3°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

May I give an educated guess that it is good news that the min pressure is now up to 1004. On the previous report it had dropped to 1000 mb.

Here in Santo Domingo the wind seems to have died out. That is normal when a storm is coming.

 

[Dolores]

My experience following hurricanes all these years is that one needs to prepare for the worst to not be sorry. Hurricane forecasting has gotten better, but hurricanes are creatures of their own minds.

 

[Caonabo]

May I give an educated guess that it is good news that the min pressure is now up to 1004. On the previous report it had dropped to 1000 mb.

Here in Santo Domingo the wind seems to have died out. That is normal when a storm is coming.

The minimum pressure rising a bit is decent, but I believe this system is too unpredictable.
Earlier today, you had wind in Santo Domingo. I had none in Bayahibe.
Now you have none, but in Juan Dolio it is picking up, and constant.

 

[Dolores]

What I have been reading is just what Caonabo is highlighting. This storm is unpredictable... Gloria Ceballos, our Onamet director, says she expects it to be named tonight.

The Consensus track (the average of leading international tracks) has it cutting the DR diagonally, entering say by San Pedro [de Santo Domingo], oops, San Pedro de Macoris, and exiting through the northwest.

The US Hurricane Hunters have not been able to find the center. It is all over the place.

MikeFisher is forecasting it will make its first landfall in Barahona.That means it will stay south. Would wager on that forecast for the simple reason this darn storm has not allowed itself to be named.

 

[Caonabo]

What I have been reading is just what Caonabo is highlighting. This storm is unpredictable... Gloria Ceballos, our Onamet director, says she expects it to be named tonight.

The Consensus track (the average of leading international tracks) has it cutting the DR diagonally, entering say by San Pedro [de Santo Domingo], oops, San Pedro de Macoris, and exiting through the northwest.

The US Hurricane Hunters have not been able to find the center. It is all over the place.

MikeFisher is forecasting it will make its first landfall in Barahona.That means it will stay south. Would wager on that forecast for the simple reason this darn storm has not allowed itself to be named.

I hope the Consensus track is incorrect. Only because I LEFT the La Romana region this afternoon, to spend the evening in Juan Dolio, where I currently have a project underway. We will see.

 

[Caonabo]

Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - local updates from the islands

stormCARIB presents in depth information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical storms and hurricanes threatening the Caribbean islands. Special local hurricane correspondents are standing by on the islands and will provide timely eye-witness reports and updates.

stormcarib.com

 

[El Rey de Mangu]

getting small gusts and intermittent rain here in Samaná now 2213 hrs

Blood glucose at 130 however after pasta dinner.

 

[Ken]

What I have been reading is just what Caonabo is highlighting. This storm is unpredictable... Gloria Ceballos, our Onamet director, says she expects it to be named tonight.

The Consensus track (the average of leading international tracks) has it cutting the DR diagonally, entering say by San Pedro [de Santo Domingo], oops, San Pedro de Macoris, and exiting through the northwest.

The US Hurricane Hunters have not been able to find the center. It is all over the place.

MikeFisher is forecasting it will make its first landfall in Barahona.That means it will stay south. Would wager on that forecast for the simple reason this darn storm has not allowed itself to be named.

The two most common tracks are northwest after Puerto Rico or west north west along the south coast and making landfall near the DR/Haiti border

 

[Ken]

The 11pm projection is a common track., which is good news in a way for the North Coast, except that Sosua not likely to get the rain it needs

 

[Ken]

If it stays on this track, going over the mountains to the Atlantic will take some of the steam out of the storm, but more often than not they recover when back over the ocean and are able to do some damage in the Bahama Islands

 

[Caonabo]

8:00 PM AST Wed Jul 29
Location: 16.0°N 66.3°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

And introducing, Tropical Storm Isaias.....DR1 made the call!

11:00 PM AST Wed Jul 29
Location: 15.8°N 67.0°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

 

[Dolores]

Things were calm in Santo Domingo and I fell asleep waiting for the 11pm notice, when Tropical Storm Isaias was born. Take note at 4am, in Santo Domingo, there is no rain, no wind.

Here is the 1am Onamet notice:

Onamet has issued this notice following now Tropical Storm Isaias (named since 11pm on Wednesday). The watches are from Pedernales in the deep southwest to Manzanillo Bay in the far northwest.

The center of Tropical Storm Isaias at 1am was located at latitude 15.9N and longitude 67.6W, about 370 km southeast of Santo Domingo and about 200 km south of Ponce, Puerto Rico. The storm packs maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and winds with tropical storm force that extend some 555 km outside its center. It is moving west/northwest at about 31 km/hr.

[The storm has slowed down, but 31 km is still relatively fast. This is continues to be good news because it is moving away from us fast and will cause less damage.]

The rain forecasting models keep, with 75 to 125 mm likely, especially in mountainous areas, where 200 mm. [This is 3 to 5 inches or 8 inches. This was forecast by Onamet in its 8pm report.]

Cloudy fields generating some precipitation are beginning to be observed towards the east, northeast, southeast and the Central Mountain Range of the country and are expected to extend in the next few hours to other neighboring areas. In addition, the meteorological observatory located at the Punta Cana International Airport reports sustained winds of about 35 kph with gusts of about 55 km/h in the past few hours.

Onamet says the rain will be felt on Thursday and Friday and has issued a warning because of the possible flooding of rivers and streams, as well as sudden and/or gradual flooding, as well as landslides especially in the provinces of Sánchez Ramírez, Monsignor Nouel, La Vega, Samaná, María Trinidad Sánchez, Duarte, Hermanas Mirabal, Puerto Plata, Valverde, Peravia, Azua, San José de Ocoa, Barahona, Independencia, Bahoruco, San Juan and Santiago.

It is also alerting of the possible flooding of rivers, streams and ravines, as well as sudden and/or gradual floods and landslides towards the provinces is followed: La Altagracia, El Seíbo, San Pedro de Macorís, La Romana, Hato Mayor, Monte Plata, San Cristóbal and Greater Santo Domingo.

Regarding maritime conditions, waves between 6 to 8 feet, increasing to 10 and 12 feet by Thursday morning, or even more, by later in the day, along the entire coasts of the Dominican Republic. There is a warning for small boats to remain in port.