2023 Hurricane Season

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AlterEgo

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South Coast

 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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It is the time of year again and the only thing to tell everybody is, to be prepared throughout the season always.
I just came back from my twice a year 6 weeks germany visit wednesday night, but what stood out the last weeks on so many weather forums, was the talk about El Niño.
El Niño will not decide that we would get more or stronger storms at any point of the season, the Opposite could be the case.
When a strong El Niño runs it´s course, it produces for most of the Atlantic Basin stronger upper level windshear, which is counterproductive to storm development, means storms are over the caribbean less likely to form and the ones which form are less likely to develop very quick or very strong.
The area where such El Niño takes full effect is exactly where the DR is located.
The very negative-dangerous result of a strong El Niño for our Island, is that it results in a very DRY environment, all our heavy and devastating Drought periods of the last 2 Decades happened during strong El Niño events, causing for agriculture-cattle etc much more damage than the seldom and huge-super strong hurricanes for DR.
As it looks at this moment like El Niño will start to be on a full run starting mid next month-July, we can await a extraordinarily dry summer for DR, means there are dangers of wildfires and cattle will die by the 10-thousands countrywide.
Grass for cattle is this year already a rare product, the packs of dry grass hard to get by already since weeks, as we did get last winter and this spring way less water than we normally should get.
I am myself lucky to have my own underground Lake and a strong solar powered waterpump in it in 400ft depth, but several neighbours around me already reduced their amount of cattle, knowing that they will not be able to provide them the needed amount of water and food soon and very likely for all this summer long.
For this summer 2023 I sadly await a very tough drought period, which may become a record high of a drought period.
Back to our Hurricane-Tropical Storm theme.
The Ocean Temps on our Highway between Western Africa and the Caribbean-US, are scary 2C hotter than normal-average-awaited, which makes me wonder why the big long range forecaster sites count on El Niño and predict a slightly below average active season.
The hot waters promise clearly exceptional high storm activity, while for our DR Soil and surroundings El Niño would promise a cut down.
Which one of both forces will have a dominating influence, nobody knows and I do not remember a season with those two factors being so strong-high at the same time, so there is no history experience-statistic to look on for that.
Maybe they level out and make finally for a "average¨season, who knows?
And the talk about below average/average/above average season outlooks anyways mean nothing for a specific area.
we had seasons with a heck of a number of storms but they hit elsewhere or went out to the graveyard without affecting inhabited land
and there are seasons with relatively few big storms but just one average Tropical Storm hits a certain area at a unfortunate certain time/moment and runs havock.
Just remember Tropical Storm Sandy, just a TS, but hitting at a record high of a high tide moment with a storm surge that could make many many Cat5 Hurricanes look like small unimportant babies.
As we have so many US american members/friends here on the bord, i want to add something else, even not related to our DR conditions.
Traditionally/by past time El Niño statistics,
it affects heavy with it´s drought conditions and upper level storm bothering wind shear over the caribbean,
but the El Niño effects are way less present in the northern basin from Bermuda to the US East Shores,
so that area will very likely have the effects of the hot sea surface but without the El Niño protection, giving that certain area of the Atlantic Basin a clearly way above average season outlook.
In real Life that means, when a Storm forms up out of our East, it keeps put down on a certain power level as long as it wanders the caribbean or as so often while it misses us on our NE and heads for the Bahamas, so once it passes the upper level wind shear area of us, wandering NWward, that El Niño wind shear will be gone and allow fast strong intensifications of such storm over hot ocean waters.
Again,
we never before had such combination of such strong El Niño and the same time such hot Atlantic Highway Waters, nobody could tell how they will act together-against each other down here over the caribbean skies.
We have to wait until first things pop up and develop or not, develop quick and strong or slow and weak.
It is always interesting to talk all such possibilities, but at the end of the day we have to do the same as always,
we have to prepare our house-surroundings to be secured quickly at the moment something strong would be forecasted for the next couple days for our home area.
For myself here on the Finca, I had unwanted last season a hurricane proof as the wooden house and the large Palm Leaf Deck survived the eye of Fiona completely unharmed.
Then I built 2 solar systems on one Rack, nicely cemented into the rocky grounds i have here and everything tied down to the rack as good as i think it should stand any ever shown windforce, but who knows_ Maybe in my lifetime we will not get any hurricane again up here in Vallegina-Orange Valley, but you never know, so you need to have the stuff ready for whatsoever imaginary forces, as you don´t wanna spend the same money on your stuff again and again.
While I was away abroad, I got a coral built for the cows.
The guys did a great job, but they added something as a surprise, something I did not ask for to add, a zinn roof over 3/4 of the coral.
Not a bad idea at all, but that roof would not stand any strong breeze, so that´s where I need to get an idea to tie that down for stronger than regular winter wind forces, lol.
My power banks store 21.8 KW of electricity, so from that side we should be safe keeping fridges, lights, BERFREEZER, Playstation etc running no matter what blows around outside. In case it would stay dark for several days/nights without any recharge of the batterie banks by the solar panels, for that I just got a new 5.5Kilo planta today, so we can recharge batteries as needed or even run the whole electricity of our place connected direct to the generator.
Now,
we have nothing left than to keep our beer and meat freezers stocked for a great weekend.

Enjoy
 

CG

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Sep 16, 2004
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Thank you! Mike Fisher... There we have it folks, lets all be prepared and enjoy the season
 
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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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would you mind telling me details about the 400' solar water pump>
It is, like all my equipment, from Towards, a 3HP Pump.
Solely to run the pump, not used to charge my batteries, I have 8 solar panels of 144 photovoltaik cells each.
I will attach you a picture of the pump before we submerged it and a photo of the plate of the solar panels used to run the pump.
WhatsApp Image 2022-10-24 at 16.47.59.jpg

WhatsApp Image 2022-10-28 at 14.32.45.jpg
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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How much are those 450w panels?
I don't remember the detailed single prices for the stuff, as I purchased it as a package from one guy/company, all materials and all mounted and running.
I will see him the next 8-10 days and will ask him, as I have still only 10.8KW of a electricity storage, as it was first only meant to serve our place as our weekend retreat. but my girls decided to give away our condo and pool and move on the Finca, which will happen before July is over, so i ordered a additional bank of 8 Trojan Batteries to be mounted. Waiting on the estimate for the additional batteries, so when I see him for that I will let you know how much the panels are now.
I bought the solar staff last year, i think it was october when we mounted and finished all that.
 
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Olly

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Mar 12, 2007
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Thanks Mike for that extensive round up for the coming 2023 Hurricane season. Can you comment on the effects of the SAL ( Saharan Dust layer) . At present it is at very low levels due to the exceptional rainfall in the Sahara. It may have a big early season effect !
Olly
 

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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Thank You Mike, good to know that you haven't abandon us. Your predictions are priceless.
I never abandon DR1,I am just rare with my presence Fall/Winter, been running several constructions on the Finca and just came back from a 6 weeks stay in Germany, so time flies by quickly sometimes.
I get more rare online in general, specially since I have since last december a additional manager beeing "Mike" for most business online activities, specially for all airport transfer and excursions bookings, since already 2 1/2 years I also have one guy organizing all excursions needs like putting guides and boats and pick up drivers on duty, doing the shopping for food & drinks on the excursions etc.
It is my long planned 2nd step towards retirement, name it my soft pre-retirement.
I live myself since last summer almost all the time on the Finca, taking care about some cows, javali, chicken, ducks, goose, turkeys and my fav meat gineas, growing fruits and veggies for the own household's use, it is what i want to do when retired.
Born country, even on the other side of the planet, finally i come all the way back to my roots, lol.
So I will always have the time to watch our "Season" weather, for my place here weather is anyways even more important than it ever was for the excursions, fishing etc.
 

XTraveller

Well-known member
Aug 21, 2010
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I never abandon DR1,I am just rare with my presence Fall/Winter, been running several constructions on the Finca and just came back from a 6 weeks stay in Germany, so time flies by quickly sometimes.
I get more rare online in general, specially since I have since last december a additional manager beeing "Mike" for most business online activities, specially for all airport transfer and excursions bookings, since already 2 1/2 years I also have one guy organizing all excursions needs like putting guides and boats and pick up drivers on duty, doing the shopping for food & drinks on the excursions etc.
It is my long planned 2nd step towards retirement, name it my soft pre-retirement.
I live myself since last summer almost all the time on the Finca, taking care about some cows, javali, chicken, ducks, goose, turkeys and my fav meat gineas, growing fruits and veggies for the own household's use, it is what i want to do when retired.
Born country, even on the other side of the planet, finally i come all the way back to my roots, lol.
So I will always have the time to watch our "Season" weather, for my place here weather is anyways even more important than it ever was for the excursions, fishing etc.
I understand, always looking for your expert contribution. Keep buzzy stay young!
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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www.mikefisher.fun
Thanks Mike for that extensive round up for the coming 2023 Hurricane season. Can you comment on the effects of the SAL ( Saharan Dust layer) . At present it is at very low levels due to the exceptional rainfall in the Sahara. It may have a big early season effect !
Olly
Yes, the Saharan Dry Air Layer is thin and in addition to the way above normal Sea Surface Temperatures part of the conditions which would promise a Season with strong storm activities.
Also, right now, we have zero windshear over all the Highway between Western Africa and the Caribbean.
A hindering factor for a early start should be the fact that at this moment there is very little moisture in the atmosphere all over the highway between 10th and 15th North, so disturbed weather areas associated with the always running tropical waves, should not be able to collect much moisture to fuel strong machines.
As you said, the Saharan Desert is wet (well, as a matter of fact, more people drown in deserts than people die due missing water there, I was in such drowning situation in a desert area myself on horseback, we got almost killed by a high strong mud-wave, produced by heavy rainfalls over mountains many miles away from our hot dry position, riding innocently in a dry riverbed with a mile of no way leaving that riverbed due too high shoulders for the horses), so at one point there will be moister moving East - West in the significant area 10th-15th North to work as fuel for disturbed weather areas.
We don't know when that will happen, it could be in just a couple days and it also could stay dry for many weeks to come.
The same for the SAL, once rainfalls go down, almost right away the Saharan Surface is dried out and the African Dust will thicken our mid level atmosphere.
This also has no time line which we could associate with a Date or such, we watch and see.
I would have awaited that the Gulf of Mexico and the area East of the Carolinas and Florida and the Bahamas out to Bermuda would show early/Pre-Season early activity,
but that been hindered by still present very high windshear of over 50Knots all over those 2 regions, a real savior for there so far, as conditions been ready there many weeks before the June 1st official start of the Season.
The Gulf will be a hotspot for this season, the SE of the US over the Bahamas and out to Bermuda can be awaited to be the prime area for the 2023 game, specially for formations that come out of Our East and survive a pass riding NW towards that area, as they will come out of harsh conditions entering very favorable grounds, so no matter how big or small, they will start quick steep rising development/powers then on that short way up NW.
But as usual, all predictions such far ahead of time are useless until something pops up and can be observed.
We shall see soon, or better, nothing to watch til Thanks Giving Day, which would make for a perfect Season.
 

Drperson

Well-known member
Sep 19, 2008
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It is, like all my equipment, from Towards, a 3HP Pump.
Solely to run the pump, not used to charge my batteries, I have 8 solar panels of 144 photovoltaik cells each.
I will attach you a picture of the pump before we submerged it and a photo of the plate of the solar panels used to run the pump.
View attachment 7799
View attachment 7800
Wow that sure is a monster. Thanks
 
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MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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www.mikefisher.fun
Yes, it states what I explained.
In shorter words:
Our Tropical Highway is this season already ready with high power fuels for storms, it is right Now stronger than it usually would be during our hurricane peak times in summer(august/september), due very above normal/average Sea Surface Temperatures and Ocean Heat Content, as the weak Trade Winds do not stirr up enough deeper ocean waters to cool down the surface.
But, at the same time we get higher wind shear forces, which are a strong bothering element for storm development.
The resulting weak Trade Winds allow the ocean waters to be very hot on the surface and do not bring as much Saharan Dust as usual,
but they also bring less Moisture, whjch is also a missing significant factor to fuel/grow/develop big storms.
An other result of all that is a Weak Atlantic High. To explain this very important thing for storm affects on our Island:
The Atlantic High is a high pressure ridge located North of our Highway.
Surface low pressure systems(our Storms) do avoid such regions like the Devil avoids holy water, lol.
That means that form, size and strength of that Atlantic High is Always the Mayor Factor deciding in which direction a storm out of our East/coming over our Highway, will go.
Naturally, a storm would wander heading NW.
But with a usually strong Atlantic High North of a storm's area, it is forced to wander more W than N, even straight W'wards,
so that's then the storms coming straight into the caribbean Sea, threatening the Northern Islands belt, PR, Hispañola etc.
A weak Atlantic High means that storms get a more or full NW heading, which is very good for us here on the Island,
as due that it is more likely that the storms approaching from Our East will miss us and pass on our NE towards the Bahamas or even earlier out up to the hurricane graveyard mid atlantic.
A good example is the Actual Disturbance/Invest, hitting Atlantic waters as we speak off the West African Coast.
IF it forms, it will wander around 12th " North, that would be a perfect positioning for a Westward Runner to enter the caribbean sea or approach PR/Hispañola from the SE in a week from now, under normal strong Atlantic High Conditions.
With the High Ridge weak, it will stay down around 12-13 degrees N only until it reaches half way of the highway and then turn NW to miss the Caribbean on our NE.
To have such starting run and development today, June 15th!!!, I guess that would be a long time record margin to get a big boy before end June on the doorstep.
No worries, it will Not happen.
What will happen, IF it stays up long enough, is my directional description only.
As for powers/development:
the hot waters may allow to stay up as a area of disturbed weather for several days,
BUT Windshear over all of our Highway is violently high, out there there is no moisture to collect and fuel/build a big storm,
so there is nothing to worry about out there.
It is a very early season interesting heavy weather area, which gives us the opportunity to learn about this first half of the season Strom behaviors, specially in case of their Heading/Directions, so we start to learn what may happen later this season, when conditions allow that a disturbed weather area collects moisture and forms into a storm.
Maybe it stays on long enough to show us the directional Path all the way from Africa towards the Lesser Antilles,
but most likely it will be gone long before reaching that far W'ward.
Screenshot 2023-06-15 082829.png
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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www.mikefisher.fun
I don't remember the detailed single prices for the stuff, as I purchased it as a package from one guy/company, all materials and all mounted and running.
I will see him the next 8-10 days and will ask him, as I have still only 10.8KW of a electricity storage, as it was first only meant to serve our place as our weekend retreat. but my girls decided to give away our condo and pool and move on the Finca, which will happen before July is over, so i ordered a additional bank of 8 Trojan Batteries to be mounted. Waiting on the estimate for the additional batteries, so when I see him for that I will let you know how much the panels are now.
I bought the solar staff last year, i think it was october when we mounted and finished all that.
got my 8 additional Trojan batteries delivered and mounted on Monday.
Sorry, while he was here to connect everything and do the maintenance position turnaround on the "old" 8 batteries, I forgot to ask about the actual price of the solar panels.
I just called and what he has on stock (he has his business in Higuey) is the same brand but 550 Watts Panels.
They are for 16.000 Pesos each.
On Monday I was surprised about the price(i expected higher) for the batteries.
I paid 130.000.- for 8 Trojan 105+ Batteries, including delivery to my remote location, mounting all running and included was the connection of 2 big breakers, so I can charge my batteries over one and over the other run my big water pump via a new 5.5 Kilo generator, if there would ever be need for the use of the generator. I just have to start the generator by switch and turn one of the breakers from up to down to have the equipment running without any solar panel power.
Of course I hope i will never need the generator for anything, as i want to run everything on solar power, as i do since october 2022,
but you never know what happens or what fails, so i want to be prepared to keep running everything under whatsoever circumstances,
because there is no CEPM power available up here at my place, yet.
They are negociating with the people around to bring a power line up here, but I will be equipped to never take a connection from them.
 

windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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Did you add 8 additional batteries to an existing battery bank?

Doing so is not recommended since the older battery bank will "age" the new batteries.
 
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