At least be a challenge
iluvdr said:
I have to make you one compliment Lurch, you do know your politics and even to a certain extend your economics as well. You always comme up with some solid statements to back up your BS. Kinds of reminds me of Bush when he had to convince the world that Irak had Weapons of mass destruction, he build a pretty solid case... That's why they call it BS, you see, BS is hard on top but soft at the bottom. It's got no consistence! All your political criticizim still does not change the fact that the pesos has hardly moved since Christmas... I am yet to hear from you a " I was wrong..." this must be the american way!
Of course there are solid statements to back up my position, it is impossible to alter basic reality. You can jump up and down until your pseudo french hearts content, however it will not change the fundamentals of the RD, simply put its economic model is non viable.
In very simple terms for you, it spends more than it generates and borrows more than it can repay considering its possible present and future GDP (barring of course an oil pool the size Kuwait being discovered under Santo Domingo)
A government can declare its currency value at just about anything it truly desires especially in a remittance based economy such as the RD. However there are consequences and the government cannot maintain this peg indefinitely as it will severely impact its economy. If you look about, you are already starting to see the impact (example massive job losses in the FZ?s),. How long will the PLD continue? How long can they continue?
This brings us to the major point anyone who invests in pesos does so without any market fundamentals supporting its value. Any foreign bond investor is completely banking on the assumption the government will maintain the artificial exchange rate and market value is irrelevant. Now this is not terribly different than the internet bubble a couple of years ago where companies traded at unheard of PE ratios. What was the conclusion of that bubble? Reality set in as it always will in a market based environment, reality will set in here too. Unless one believes the RD is the lone exception on this planet.
As for the American way, well Americans do not bury their heads in the sand and wish for a positive outcome. We are people of decisive actions be they well founded or not.
iluvdr said:
Lets be real Lurch, you know you don't want any one to do that exercise...It would make you look even more like a fool.
I shall be the motley fool and stand by my position as it is well defined and supported.
iluvdr said:
I may not use big words in my post or try to act educated. The truth is, I am not. I berely have a college degree... But I have got something you don't. It's called street smart, this is the kind of degree that you don't earn, you deserve it! And for your information, I actually have a lot of very educated people working for me!
If ever you need a job feel free to apply (you can PM me).
I would actually been surprised if you said otherwise regarding your background, which explains your inability to logically argue and support your position. Some say luck is better than talent, they never last and I am quite patient by nature.
iluvdr said:
Now, I can't even began to answer your post since it makes no kind of sense...
You have only made 86 post and they where not all targeted at critisizing my opinions.Now, how would your earnings be in triple digits? Even an uneducated, street usler as myself can do the math...
Sigh, it was figurative speech just as I assume you are aware not all my posts have centered on the CB bonds. However I do recall in every posting directed toward you correcting a multiple deceptions, incorrect assessments, fraud, ignorance of history, law, business and economics.
iluvdr said:
Finally, some light at the end of the tunnel! Smart question, deserves a smart answer.
There is an old saying in Real Estate: "Buy when everyone is selling, sell when every one is buying..."
I guess this would also apply to the Argentina bonds, Enron, Global Crossing should I continue or has the point been made?
iluvdr said:
Don't you get it Lurch, if all the investment houses where jumping in on this deal then it would not be at 26%. The potential risk does not permit institutionalize investors to come in at this time.
Touchdown! Now you have just completely flipped positions in one paragraph. The risk of the CB bonds is unwarranted considering its only paying 26% in a manipulated overvalued currency. Congratulations you have learned something.
iluvdr said:
What the CB is doing by giving CD's at High yield is bringing money into the country, therefore stabilizing the pesos and creating confidence, as that level of confidence rises, they will lower the interest rates and pay back the high yield loans with the new lower interest rates CD's until they reach a standard rate. This strategy seems to be working. The real winners will obviously be those who got in early on. There is no conspiracy or pyramid scheme here. I tip my hat to the genius at CB that put this all together! (Not bad for a stock pimp!)
Of course it?s a pyramid scheme and you admitted it in your first sentence. The PLD bringing in hard currency to support the peso (non liquid currency) to create an artificial environment to foster a confidence scheme (sounds like a MLM to me, but heck I am just the motley foo :tired: l).
The more a read of you the more you sound like a proverbial two-bit hustler, time take it elsewhere unless you can argue your points more effectively.
(and you could take that promise to the bank!)