Current Caribbean and Atlantic Weather

[Chris]

Today, August 3, 2005

Ken has let us know that the NHC has upped its longer range hurricane forecast for 2005. Here is a short quote: "NOAA expects an additional 11 to 14 tropical storms from August through November, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes. In total, this season is likely to yield 18 to 21 tropical storms, with nine to 11 becoming hurricanes, including five to seven major hurricanes. "

You can see Ken's post and the full article here.. http://www.dr1.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42211

For today however, we can still breathe a sign of relief and continue with our normal day.. Tropical Depression eight, is located quite far from us and near Bermuda. The meteorologist bloggers call this one a 'fish spinner' .. which I found quite humorous here early in the morning...

This is our satellite for today.. cloudy, we should see some showers and thundershowers in places but mostly of short duration as the clouds above us move on... http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Three tropical waves are of interest.. One in the East Atlantic, one in the Eastern Caribbean moving West, and another weaker wave over the Western Caribbean, also moving West. As we are just about on the border of what is classified as Eastern and Western Caribbean areas, these two waves are causing the cloudiness and scattered showers for us. The Eastern Caribbean wave carry significant African Dust on its leading edge.

With all this activity out there, we'll keep watching for any developments.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 4, 2005

I've just read the abstract of Dr Gray's updated August forecast for the 2005 hurricane season. The short story is:

"We estimate that 2005 will have about 20 named storms (average is 9.6), 10 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 95 named storm days (average is 49.1), 55 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 6 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 18 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 235 percent of the long-term average."

Well, looks like the next four months are going to be really busy for us. You can see the abstract here http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/aug_zzz/aug05.html

For today, still a few thunderstorms and tropical storms but it looks like we can look forward to a dryer weekend as the weak tropical waves move away from us. Upper level moisture is predicted to move out of the Caribbean by Friday and we can expect sunny skies at least for part of Friday and Saturday if all else remains the same.

Over the Atlantic, some complex weather patterns are playing out. Of interest to us is a 1009 MB low pressure associated with a tropical wave, centered about 450 miles West-Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and drifting generally West-NorthWest. This may well be the next tropical system in our back yard. Cloudiness and showers associated with this system continue to become better organized. The signatures are positive for this one to form into a tropical depression as early as today.

Now that both Noaa as well as Dr Gray's long term forecasts show a significant upward expectation of major storms for the next four months, I would suggest that you take a little time, read through the hurricane preparedness threads and get your preparation done - this week!. The days are a little cooler with all the rain, so get out and cut some overhanging branches, pick those coconuts and generally have a good look around your place for anything that may become a hurricane hazard. The North Coasters need to do this as well and not rest on their almost flawless history. These are exceptional times and the North Coasters are not excluded

 

[Chris]

Tropical Depression 9

Tropical depression nine has declared itself and the National Hurricane Center has already started advisories on this system. They seem to be a little concerned.

At 5 pm the poorly defined center of newly formed tropical depression nine was located near 12.7 North and 34.5 West, or about 605 miles...1115 KM West of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

The depression is moving toward the West near 12 MPH or 19 KM/HR and is expected to continue on this heading during the next 24 hours.

We're expecting this system to strengthen during the next 24 hours from sustained winds of 30 MPH with higher gusts. The potential is there for more substantial strenthening once it gets to about about 40-45W. The estimated minimum central pressure currently is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches.

This one is worth monitoring. Any Dominican Republic impact is 5 to 7 days away, so, for the moment, just something to watch carefully.

 

[Chris]

The satellite image tells the story for today. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html We still have moisture in the air due to an upper troff and a small high between us and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Nothing to be concerned about locally, excepting the normal tropical showers and thundershowers.

Poorly organized tropical depression nine is on track to become a tropical storm today but also, to pass us well out into the Atlantic ocean as things stand currently. Here is the 5 day forecast. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085543.shtml?5day?large
We will keep a watch on this one.

 

[Chris]

Update on Tropical Depression 9

In the words of Forecaster Avila: "How little we know about the genesis of Tropical Cyclones. Satellite images during the day yesterday showed a distinct disturbance in the deep tropics with all known factors apparently favorable for the system to become a tropical storm. Surprisingly this morning, visible images indicate that the system has become disorganized. Unexpectedly the low-level circulation moved NorthWestward toward relatively cooler waters and lost most of the deep convection."

So, at the moment there is no tropical cyclone development. Back to our sleepy islands lives. The only thing I can add to Forecaster Avila?s words, is that I don?t trust these systems....

 

[Dolores1]

Tropical Storm Irene's track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204602.shtml?5day

 

[Chris]

I'm flabbergasted. Here we are in the one of the busiest hurricane seasons of all times, and it seems as if everything passes us by... and starts working its job well to the north or north west or north east of us.

Tropical Storm Irene will have no effect on us on her current course, Tropical Storm Harvey is doing its dance well to the north east of us and we are in the middle of the most superb summer caribbean weather that one could hope for.

For the sailors among us, we have moderate tradewinds and for an old sailor like me, it is time to take to the ocean and pit the boat and the crew against the winds. In hurricane season you say? Yes, I say! It is beautiful out there.

Till something happens again..... I must go out to the sea again, to the lonely sea and the sky... where all I have is a tall ship, and a star to steer her by....

 

[Chris]

Today, August 8, 2005

530 am Outlook and Discussion for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.

Atlantic Tropical Waves...
East Atlantic tropical wave along 27W/28W and South of 18 North moving west at around11.5 miles per hour. This wave is weak, cannot clearly be seen on the sattellite pictures, and has no associated deep convection.

Central Atlantic tropical wave embedded with very dry air is moving across Barbados and will cross the remainder of the Lesser Antilles tonight, moving West at about 11 miles per hour. Scattered and isolated patches of moderate to strong convection is moving over the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Antigua and Barbuda.

A little closer to us, the picture is somewhat complex. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

We are under the influence of a mid-upper trough over the Northern Caribbean, extending from East Cuba, over Jamaica and then across to the Yucutan peninsula. South of this trough is a mid-upper level ridge extending from NorthWestern Colombia to over Nicaragua.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are North of Haiti, to just West of the Cayman Islands. As a result of this, we should see our share of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms.

Yet another mid/upper level ridge dominates the Eastern Caribbean, leaving the area West of 70 West under dry upper air. However, with the tropical wave approaching, we should see a few more isolated showers/thunderstorms as the week progresses.

And, to keep us cool, moderate tradewinds dominate the entire Caribbean.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 9, 2005

Little to report for today. We have dryer upper air and are waiting for a weaker tropical wave to bring us some much needed tropical showers and thundershowers - to cool us off. Typical summer weather in the Caribbean.... One tropical wave in the Atlantic and nothing major expected during this 24 hours. Will have a look again in the morning over the Atlantic and for any developments down in the Leewards and Windwards that may be coming our way...

 

[Chris]

Today, August 10 2005

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

We're still under the influence of dryer air. The Caribbean Tropical wave is in our vicinity but the moistness high in the atmoshere is not making it through the dryer air.

The upper high will slowly drift North West over the next few days to make way for an upper low which is currently in the Tropical Atlantic and will be moving across the Lesser Antilles before the end of the week.

All seems to be quiet in our 'storm hatchery' and there are no other signs of tropical storms forming.

It is hot and humid out there with very few scattered tropical showers/thundershowers to keep us cool.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 11, 2005

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Little change from yesterday. We're still hot and humid and under a high with dry air. Toward the weekend we may see more frequent tropical showers/thunderstorms and more breezes. This will be welcome.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 12, 2005

530 AM Discussion and Outlook

A Westward- moving tropical wave is located about 1350 miles East of the Windward Islands. This system has changed little in organization during the night .. but has some potential for slow development over the next couple of days.

Closer to us in the Western Caribbean there is a mid-upper level high over the Honduras/Nacaragua border. Coupled with an inverted upper trough stretching from Colombia to Haiti, we have dry subsiding air with the last few thunderstorms moving offshore from the coasts of Cuba and Haiti.
A further mid/upper high over the central Atlantic extend into the Eastern Caribbean with dry upper air over most of the area except the Lesser Antilles where there is a band of scattered thunderstorms. This moisture will hang around the Eastern Caribbean through Saturday, before another surge of dry air enters the area from the North East.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 13, 2005

530 AM Discussion and Outlook

The overall organization of the tropical wave about 1050 miles East of the Windward Islands has changed little overnight. Thunderstorm activity remains limited however conditions still appear favorable for a tropical depression to develop during the next day or so, as the system moves toward the NorthWest at about 10 MPH.

Closer to us, we have an Eastern Caribbean Sea tropical Wave along 63/64 West just south of 18 North, and moving West at a little over 20 MPH. The showers associated with this wave are between 14/15 North and 66.5/67.5 West. Other isolated moderate showers are from 12 to 18 North and between 63 West and 70 West.

Even closer, we have a Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 73 West and just South of 19 North from Haiti to Northern Colombia, moving west at a little more than 15 MPH. Showers and thunderstorms to the West of this wave stretch from the Windward Passage to Jamaica and the Cayman Island to the Isle of Youth.

We should begin to see some isolated showers from these systems today.

 

[Chris]

Tropical Depression 10 forms in the Atlantic

5pm Advisories

A new tropical depression forms in the Atlantic. The center of newly formed tropical depression 10 was located about 1100 miles East of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression is moving toward the NorthWest near 9 MPH or 15 KM/HR. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 MB or 29.77 inches.

Maximum sustained winds currently are near 35 mph or 55 KM/HR with higher gusts. The depression has the potential to become a tropical storm as early as as early as tomorrow.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210109.shtml?5day?large
Although the 5 day forecast is headed way far away from us, if you look and the wanderings meanderings of tropical storm Irene that has been hanging around for a few weeks now, you'll see why we monitor these depressions as they start in the Atlantic.

 

[Chris]

Water Vapor Image for today... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg
We need a little cooldown, hence the water vapor image for today, so that we can see how soon we'll get the promised tropical showers.

At 5am the center of tropical depression 10 was located about 1055 Miles or 1605 KM East of the Leeward Islands and moving West at around 7 MPH or 11 KM/HR. A gradual turn toward the NorthWest is expected today. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 MPH or 45 KM/HR with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches.

The latest Eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave to clear the Cape Verde Islands was around 29 West, just South of 20 North and moving West around 12 MPH with a 1010 MB low pressure center along the wave. Low clouds are moving cyclonically around this wave and low pressure center.

An Eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave was along 69W/70W and just South of 18 North moving West 18 to 24 MPH. This wave is moving through an area of upper level anticyclonic flow from a weakening ridge. This should bring us some showers and thundershowers today, to cool us down.

Just a little further away, a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79 West/80 West and South of 16 North just SouthWest of Jamaica, moving West with numerous strong showers and thundershowers from Panama to around Jamaica. Perhaps we could also see some moisture on the furthest outflow of this wave. Strong showers and thunderstorms remain between Haiti and the Southern Bahamas and Cuba.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 16, 2005

530 AM Discussion and Outlook

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Scattered showers/thunderstorms over the entire Western Caribbean. The moisture is expected to linger over the Western Caribbean for the next several days, while the Eastern Caribbean will remain under a predominantly dry low level easterly flow.

We're also looking at 4 tropical waves this morning as well as the remnants of tropical depression 10. Tropical waves are over the Central Caribbean, Central America, Central Atlantic and a new wave along the coast of Africa.

Tropical storm formation is however not expected for the next 24 hours.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 17, 2005

530 AM Discussion and Outlook

The remnants of tropical depression 10 is now around 400 miles East of the Leewards and has organized into a well-defined surface low pressure system. Upper level winds are inhibiting thunderstorm activity near the center. Conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable and a tropical depression may develop later today or tomorrow.

Generally we are under a large mid-upper low situated just south of Haiti, which is pulling in broad Northerly flow over the Western Caribbean. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html
Dry air farther North over the Western Atlantic is being drawn across Central Cuba into the ciruclation of the low. Most of the convection is currently over the SouthWestern Caribbean just South of 14 North and West of 80 West.

With this low and the low entering from the remants of TD 10, we can expect a few more showers and thundershowers than usual and we will carefully watch the developing situation.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 18, 2005

530 am outlook and advisories for the Caribbean Sea

The remnants of tropical depression ten is now about 170 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving West-NorthWestward at 10 - 15 MPH. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and upper-level winds are a little more favorable for a tropical depression to develop. We will monitor the progress of this system.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Generally we are under a large mid/upper low stretching off the coast of Central America with an upper trough extending EastNorthEast over Hispaniola. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms dot most of the Caribbean. Deep layered moisture will likely remain through the weekend with low level Easterly trade winds increasing a little by Saturday.

 

[Chris]

Looks like we're in for a little more rain... One big East-NorthEast to West-Southwest oriented trough stretches from the Southern Bahamas across SouthEast Cuba toward the Gulf of Honduras. An area of upper level anticyclonic flow covers the SouthWestern corner of this area ... sharing space with the 81 West tropical wave and related clouds, showers and thunderstorms. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong showers and thundershowers with broken to overcast multilayered clouds are nearly everywhere else South of 20 North... We're around 19N, so, this means us.

All is not lost for holiday makers.. our weather blows over quickly...! And we have to have some rain sometime.

 

[Chris]

Today, August 20, 2005

530 am Advisories

The remnants of tropical depression 10 are producing disorganized cloudiness and showers from near the Eastern Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Northern Leeward Islands, Northward over the adjacent Atlantic for a few hundred miles. This activity is expected to spread Westward during the next couple of days. Upper level winds are currently unfavorable for any redevelopment to occur.

Widespread cloudiness and showers continue over much of the NorthWestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it moves West-NorthWestward at 10 to 15 MPH.