- Thread starter MikeFisher
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H-Season outlooks 2010
Mike you do us a huge service - thank you. While your posts are often a little bit of work to figure out - the effort is WELL WORTH IT.
You bring a point of view that I can really relate to. So for all your work - thanks. And I even like reading your rants.....
You often say what I am thinking. I just think with better grammar....
You bring a point of view that I can really relate to. So for all your work - thanks. And I even like reading your rants.....
You often say what I am thinking. I just think with better grammar....
thinking with better grammar, wooohahahaha
i like that one, and sooo true.
today's update:
sunny skies on the east, wind freshs up, makes for better fishing conditions.
early morning showed heavy clouds over the Virgin islands moving westward, i guess we may get some refreshing clouds during this afternoon, nothing bad in vicinity for this sunny weekend.
and hey,
again Argentine missed a top chance to better their lead,
they are strong and if they go on missing that goal there may come up some clouds over Maradonna's head, he he
cheers
Mike
i like that one, and sooo true.
today's update:
sunny skies on the east, wind freshs up, makes for better fishing conditions.
early morning showed heavy clouds over the Virgin islands moving westward, i guess we may get some refreshing clouds during this afternoon, nothing bad in vicinity for this sunny weekend.
and hey,
again Argentine missed a top chance to better their lead,
they are strong and if they go on missing that goal there may come up some clouds over Maradonna's head, he he
cheers
Mike
they have a fantastic team together, i count them to the tops, even that they usually not pass after the quarters.
great play when they are in ball possession, but their passive play still leaks, 6 shots on goal for Nigeria so far, even that no save by Argentine's goalie been needed.
the Goal bee a Top one, header from 11 meters exactly into the corner.
the scorer:
Heinze,
hey, with that German name.....
he he
Mike
great play when they are in ball possession, but their passive play still leaks, 6 shots on goal for Nigeria so far, even that no save by Argentine's goalie been needed.
the Goal bee a Top one, header from 11 meters exactly into the corner.
the scorer:
Heinze,
hey, with that German name.....
he he
Mike
black dog,
absolutely right, we will move over to the soccer thread,
here we stick to the hurricane season and what may be up on that.
actually the east is cmpetey sunny and dry, comfo breeze from the Oceanside.
cheers
Mike
absolutely right, we will move over to the soccer thread,
here we stick to the hurricane season and what may be up on that.
actually the east is cmpetey sunny and dry, comfo breeze from the Oceanside.
cheers
Mike
the 8PM advisory provides us tonight with a disturbance around 750mls SW of the Cape verde Islands.
organized Thunderstorms are available, the system moves on a WNW Track.
nothing special til now, but it is on a location where such needs to be watched.
the daylight shots tomorrow morning will bring much more details to guess on the disturbance and the surroundings/conditions between there and here.
Mike
it's just June,
that's extremely early in the season for anything anywhere in the atlantic basin,
but we have it to watch out for, named Invest 92L.
the Saharan Dust to hinder development is located far north of the forming system, it will not help or influence.
the for June typical high windshear is present at the usual area, but that's far away b/c the 92L system is forming far south of the usual Tropical system forming area, below 7'N.
that close to the Equator the system get's top of the spin of the earth's movement to go on growing, and i guess it will do quick.
SST's are on top even now early in June higher than last year during peak season time periods, no protecting shield up.
it is early to predict a exact path and strenghth growing of the system, but my guess is at this moment the following:
by late tuesday we will have a declared Tropical Depressionon a NW track towards the Center of the Antilles Islands. up there the SST's are still completely in favor of a system/storm, no saharn dust will bother by that time, but the expected windshear will give it a hard time, most likely take it apart within a 100 miles radius of the mid Antilles, at least knocking the system down strong enough to not let it recover. rain and strong winds for the mid Antilles are what i see, those islands will be on Alert by Monday night i guess.
til today i don't see danger for our area, i give it low chances to make it into the caribbean Sea and no chance to develop within the Caribbean Sea.
i am watching now the German's game who show England how soccer in europe is really PLAYED, not just talked, so i will check into the details of 92L later on tonight.
God save the Queen and Beckham,
Podolski and Klose know about SOCCER.
Cheers
Mike
that's extremely early in the season for anything anywhere in the atlantic basin,
but we have it to watch out for, named Invest 92L.
the Saharan Dust to hinder development is located far north of the forming system, it will not help or influence.
the for June typical high windshear is present at the usual area, but that's far away b/c the 92L system is forming far south of the usual Tropical system forming area, below 7'N.
that close to the Equator the system get's top of the spin of the earth's movement to go on growing, and i guess it will do quick.
SST's are on top even now early in June higher than last year during peak season time periods, no protecting shield up.
it is early to predict a exact path and strenghth growing of the system, but my guess is at this moment the following:
by late tuesday we will have a declared Tropical Depressionon a NW track towards the Center of the Antilles Islands. up there the SST's are still completely in favor of a system/storm, no saharn dust will bother by that time, but the expected windshear will give it a hard time, most likely take it apart within a 100 miles radius of the mid Antilles, at least knocking the system down strong enough to not let it recover. rain and strong winds for the mid Antilles are what i see, those islands will be on Alert by Monday night i guess.
til today i don't see danger for our area, i give it low chances to make it into the caribbean Sea and no chance to develop within the Caribbean Sea.
i am watching now the German's game who show England how soccer in europe is really PLAYED, not just talked, so i will check into the details of 92L later on tonight.
God save the Queen and Beckham,
Podolski and Klose know about SOCCER.
Cheers
Mike
Hi Mike,
I was wondering whether systems that form in the more southerly lattitudes develop their spin more easily as the Coriolis effect is stronger nearer the equator - does that make a big difference?
Also, what is your opinion on the wind vs rain equation, In my experience on the island rain seems to be the killer - wind not so much. Is it possible to tell if the amount of rain will be high this year?
As long as a system is moving quickly then it dumps less rain over our island. The problems seem to arrive when the systems move slowly or even turn around and linger.
And as for German football - quite frankly Germany should have won the last world cup - they were easily the best side there. So I am an Englishman cheering on the Germans - the world has gone mad!!
I was wondering whether systems that form in the more southerly lattitudes develop their spin more easily as the Coriolis effect is stronger nearer the equator - does that make a big difference?
Also, what is your opinion on the wind vs rain equation, In my experience on the island rain seems to be the killer - wind not so much. Is it possible to tell if the amount of rain will be high this year?
As long as a system is moving quickly then it dumps less rain over our island. The problems seem to arrive when the systems move slowly or even turn around and linger.
And as for German football - quite frankly Germany should have won the last world cup - they were easily the best side there. So I am an Englishman cheering on the Germans - the world has gone mad!!
yes Pedro,
absolutely correct, the actual one(i did not do my late night check, my mind contais just what been fact after the germans game this afternoon, the detailed check will come later after cigar and Imperial, lol) is forming around the 7th'N, the most extreme south forming system so far in case we get some forming, than closer to the equator than more spin, your mentioned Coarialis effect.
the rain is compared to the wind always the killer, ALWAYS, doesn't matter a system hits a banana republic or a southern USA state on the Gulf Coast, we are all equal brothers of such.
your opinion on the speed is basically correct, the slower a system moves forward than longer it rains down on a specific area and tho then more damage it is producing.
but it is in detail different for each system.
a quick moving cyclone of large size with top windspeeds may bother 10-15hrs with top windforces and low rainfalls b/c he is not a moisture loaded system,
and there are simple Vaguadas lasting 3 days and nights over the same wide area raining the heck down there withiout any wind involved, and that Vaguada at the wrong location can easily kill more humans due mudslides and flooding rivers than the highest windforces known to mankind could do.
each system has it's own behavior/characteristics/movements, the differences are not shown in the name as a Vaguada/tropical wave/tropical depression/tropical storm/cyclone, those names are simply given by the lasting top wind speeds measured in a system for a specifically time period, the naming and windspeed is by far not the only measurement for the danger of a system for humans/areas/locations, even that of course than more powerfull in windspeed a system is, than mor high the danger to get a real a$$kick, no doubt about that simple measurement.
as far as german football/soccer goes,
no, they should not have won the last Cup, it was a young team growing up, and in my opinion, yes, it is my german opinion, the boys grew up nicely during the last 4 years. this time i would be disappointed to not see them in the semifinal at least. they play with no outstanding stars, they simply play as a team, no real boss out there, but each of the boys knows what he has to do. the disciplin been always a big armory of that team, and it is a big weapon in the sport of soccer. to play with/for stars like a Maradonna, a Lionel Messi, a David Beckham, Zenadine Zidane etc can be a big problem for a team as a team when the opponent finds a way to calm that one player down.
Argentine started with very nice to watch offensive play, i am a lil fan of Messi, a genius in my eyes of today's, but their defense is something other Teams offensive lines dream about, from the run of the first games i guess the german team would love to have a backwards so weak team as argentine, it would be a a$$kick. on england i will not comment much, it is a traditonal soccer top team, they have to get many things in order and i hope they will do so, would like to see them in the final rounds, they played very weak on all fronts against a very weak US team, but they have a point and they will take the next round without a prob, then we will see what's going on, it is a tournament, not just a one game event. Ghana and Slovakia been for me 2 of the strongest teams who played so far, even that the behavior which lead to the slovakian red card been an unexcusable move of the player, that team has big potential. Ghana who won the game is my african favorte, but very much like argentine, they play very nice to watch forwards but in case of defense they would rank as a max on a european 2nd league avaerage level. they have a bunch of very good offensive single players there, as a team they miss the defense to stand the heat of a final round match.
many good teams still did not play on the tournament so far, we will see what they are capable of.
Brazil is my personal beloved all time favorite, as long as they do not play against germany of course, lol, Italy has a well prepared squadra which i count on highest ranks, Portugal i did not follow in the qualifications, but always good to hit a big one on a round or two, i did not follow dutch soccer since long, so i can not put them into a personal ranking til they had their game, France been for me a big disappointment.
from the top notch teams england and france need a 100% improvement, i awaited much more from both, and both played opponents who did not show any over the awaited performance.
til now,
without the intention to sound like a bigmouth,
the Germans without any star allures look perfect to me.
it's a game,
i love it,
may the best take the Cup.
will check the weather charts within an hour
Mike
been a long hour til now to check the charts,
but for that the 2AM updates are included.
invest 92L is actually improving like expected very quick,
surrounding conditions down there in the deep soputh are perfectly favorable for such, i await it to be named a tropical depression by daylight, i guess it is now but just not seen by the measurement factors during tonight.
it is a well organizing disturbance, the spin is on since long hours, thunderstorm activity is visible since very long, a lot of moisture to feed a rainload in the surroundings, too.
where it is now there is no protection shield present or nearby, but that is by this time and actual position no problem for our far away location.
to reach our waters the system has to move far north, yes, it is on a NW'ern track, on a map and on model predictions such looks like it would run straight into my beachfrontdoor and hit my laptop in around 5 days, but life for those lil fascinating bastards is not as simple as that.
actually the more north the more trouble is the game, and we are NORTH.
around of 11'N starts high windshear on the path, even if it would be a hurricane by tomorrow morning i would not believe it could stand the heat of the game for more than 2-3 days, and don't forget, we are at least 5 days away.
my at this moment best guess is a announcement of a fast growing tropical depression before tomorrow noon, i am pretty sure it will pick the first name of the year the same way i bet we will use a lot of letters of the 2010 alphabet, it will keep our screens busy til wednesday night, warnings for the mid Antilles who may get heavy winds and their anyways usual heaviest rains, yes, i say it will pump up a lot of rain in that system, and then it will disappear from the news.
no, the news will most likely not be clean/bored by that time,
we have 2 new ones approaching the atlantic on the african coast tonight, very close together, they may get One and a$$kick each others, it may also be just one strong wave associated with it's needed disturbance SE of the Cape Verdes before the Queen can finish her 5 o'clock Tea this afternoon monday 14th.
we are in a very hot phase compared to last season and the conditions are even still moving towards the favor of the systems, peak time after mid september, but for the next 3-5 days everything on the 11th'N and northwards will get kicked by windshear,
everything south, which is rare, like the very rare actual 92L, will be favored by top conditions but still have the problem of the need to move NW to reach us, and that i name for the next days impossible.
we need to keep an eye on the sat's over africa,
that Sahara will be anything but dry in the atmosphere for the next 3 months.
i will have a look early morning/in a few hours again before i hit the road,
but til wednesday nothing should bother our sunny beachlife
'nite
Mike
but for that the 2AM updates are included.
invest 92L is actually improving like expected very quick,
surrounding conditions down there in the deep soputh are perfectly favorable for such, i await it to be named a tropical depression by daylight, i guess it is now but just not seen by the measurement factors during tonight.
it is a well organizing disturbance, the spin is on since long hours, thunderstorm activity is visible since very long, a lot of moisture to feed a rainload in the surroundings, too.
where it is now there is no protection shield present or nearby, but that is by this time and actual position no problem for our far away location.
to reach our waters the system has to move far north, yes, it is on a NW'ern track, on a map and on model predictions such looks like it would run straight into my beachfrontdoor and hit my laptop in around 5 days, but life for those lil fascinating bastards is not as simple as that.
actually the more north the more trouble is the game, and we are NORTH.
around of 11'N starts high windshear on the path, even if it would be a hurricane by tomorrow morning i would not believe it could stand the heat of the game for more than 2-3 days, and don't forget, we are at least 5 days away.
my at this moment best guess is a announcement of a fast growing tropical depression before tomorrow noon, i am pretty sure it will pick the first name of the year the same way i bet we will use a lot of letters of the 2010 alphabet, it will keep our screens busy til wednesday night, warnings for the mid Antilles who may get heavy winds and their anyways usual heaviest rains, yes, i say it will pump up a lot of rain in that system, and then it will disappear from the news.
no, the news will most likely not be clean/bored by that time,
we have 2 new ones approaching the atlantic on the african coast tonight, very close together, they may get One and a$$kick each others, it may also be just one strong wave associated with it's needed disturbance SE of the Cape Verdes before the Queen can finish her 5 o'clock Tea this afternoon monday 14th.
we are in a very hot phase compared to last season and the conditions are even still moving towards the favor of the systems, peak time after mid september, but for the next 3-5 days everything on the 11th'N and northwards will get kicked by windshear,
everything south, which is rare, like the very rare actual 92L, will be favored by top conditions but still have the problem of the need to move NW to reach us, and that i name for the next days impossible.
we need to keep an eye on the sat's over africa,
that Sahara will be anything but dry in the atmosphere for the next 3 months.
i will have a look early morning/in a few hours again before i hit the road,
but til wednesday nothing should bother our sunny beachlife
'nite
Mike
here's the chart for the expected windshear for this morning monday june 14th 2010 7:00AM.
a 30+mphrs in the way of 92L in the atmosphere on close to 40.000ft altitude,
that's all we need to keep it off.
Mike
a 30+mphrs in the way of 92L in the atmosphere on close to 40.000ft altitude,
that's all we need to keep it off.
Mike
no significant changes since the last update last night,
it is a developing system around 1350mls southeast if the mid Antilles, moving on a more NW'ern track now tracking around 305'.
til now the same situation, it will come more north and it will get hit there by hard windshear.
let's give it 5 or 6 more hours to check again.
Mike
it is a developing system around 1350mls southeast if the mid Antilles, moving on a more NW'ern track now tracking around 305'.
til now the same situation, it will come more north and it will get hit there by hard windshear.
let's give it 5 or 6 more hours to check again.
Mike
the models say it will be a tropical depression by late wednesday,
i don't agree on the models.
to me the system has the best surrounding conditions for development than more south it stays, right where it is now conditions for development are better than they could be anywhere else, so i say if it doesn't make it to be a tropical depression til tomorrow night ten it will never make it to grow as a Tropical Storm Alex, because the track is shifting northwards, and 200 miles north of the actual position windshear is waiting to knock it off. dry air is still much over 200/near 300 miles to te north, but when the system wanders an other 2 days northwest it will get the full effect from windshear injecting dry air into the center, that would be its dead in my opinion.
my best bet is that it becomes a tropical depression before tomorrow night, tracking on that strength more westwards than northwest towards the norther Antilles, bringing winds and strong rains there to the Islands, but by then it will be far enough north of the 10'N and struggle under windshear. maybe it will be named Tropical Storm Alex for a day, a weak one damned to die at the moment of his birth.
i do not think the system will pass max winds of 50mphr at it's max point,
no danger for our Island so far.
the 2nd wave i talked about last night approached atlantic waters SE of the Cape Verde Islands, no significant development so far, no strong thunderstorm activity present, no danger in vicinity from that one at this moment, but worth to watch the next 24hrs of course.
will check in again late tonight
here on the east we are on an other extremely hot sunny day, no winds around, no clouds, that cold beer is a real lifesaver while watching the italy game on TV, i sorrily missed the morning games b/c i've been on the road til 3PM.
cheers
Mike
i don't agree on the models.
to me the system has the best surrounding conditions for development than more south it stays, right where it is now conditions for development are better than they could be anywhere else, so i say if it doesn't make it to be a tropical depression til tomorrow night ten it will never make it to grow as a Tropical Storm Alex, because the track is shifting northwards, and 200 miles north of the actual position windshear is waiting to knock it off. dry air is still much over 200/near 300 miles to te north, but when the system wanders an other 2 days northwest it will get the full effect from windshear injecting dry air into the center, that would be its dead in my opinion.
my best bet is that it becomes a tropical depression before tomorrow night, tracking on that strength more westwards than northwest towards the norther Antilles, bringing winds and strong rains there to the Islands, but by then it will be far enough north of the 10'N and struggle under windshear. maybe it will be named Tropical Storm Alex for a day, a weak one damned to die at the moment of his birth.
i do not think the system will pass max winds of 50mphr at it's max point,
no danger for our Island so far.
the 2nd wave i talked about last night approached atlantic waters SE of the Cape Verde Islands, no significant development so far, no strong thunderstorm activity present, no danger in vicinity from that one at this moment, but worth to watch the next 24hrs of course.
will check in again late tonight
here on the east we are on an other extremely hot sunny day, no winds around, no clouds, that cold beer is a real lifesaver while watching the italy game on TV, i sorrily missed the morning games b/c i've been on the road til 3PM.
cheers
Mike