H-Season outlooks 2010

[MikeFisher]

hi dave,
i often sleep between 2AM and 6AM,
that's all what's needed.
this wonderful live is too darn short to waste it on sleeping, lol.
s'y'sonn
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

92L does not show any significant changes.
close to 12'N, running a NW track, it shifts too quick too far northwards to use the favorable conditions on the south, during wednesday i expect it to get taken apart by windshear.
nothing special towatch tonight.
we had an other stunning hot sunshine day today here on the east, very calm again, but since 1hr the wind is gusting strong, radar shows wind and rain approaching, fels nice fresh, but nothing special in the air.
'nite
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

nothing new this sunny morning.
the sothern channel is cloudy, wind is nice fresh gusty,
pure sunshine here in the Cabeza de Toro/Bavaro area.
92L sticks to its NW route,
IMO we will not see TS Alex out of this, it will start weakening the next 10-15hrs and should disappear an other 24hrs later.
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

nothing new on 92L,
like awaited the detsroying of it has begun, it will be gone before the weekend without any effects on our Island weather, windshear started to hit the system, the present moisture to it's west will not help the system to survive.
i guess late last night it had been on Tropical Depression Powers for a few short hours, not enough to be declared a tropical depression, no chance to be the 1st tropical storm of the season.
at the moment nothing new expected on the maps, we are extremely early in the season, it will most likely be a very active one with many dots to watch on the screen, but not til mid july.
for the next days all looks clear, i don't expect a formation til the weekend is over.
eastern skies are clear and sunny and rainfree,
Radar from San Juan/PR does not show anything significant over the channel,
we can expect a sunny beach weekend.
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

we get hheavy winds in from the channel now, it will rain strong for a while.
92L is off thhe screens but today it looks i may been wrong with it's remainders when i wrote last night that it will not effect our Island.
destroyed by high windshear it's remainders contain significant amount of moisture, moving straight westwards, that looks like Puerto Rico will get a amount of rain out of that and that's close to us, it may bring a rainload over to Hispaniola, too, so while there's officially no number/storm/system out there we need to watch the remaining rainclouds during the next days.
nothing new expected to form during the next days in agreement to all models.
Mike

 

[Hillbilly]

Mike, local television is warning folks to stay away from the beaches. What's up with that?? Is the surf so bad??

HB

 

[MikeFisher]

noap,
we did not have any bad surf today.
snorkel tours went out this afternoon and folks had fun in the water.
but that been today.
i am this eve a bit in trouble with my weather charts, Claro is not the problem, my connection is working, que raro, but i have access trouble on some maps since hours.
the remainders of the 92L are to watch the next days because they contain a big amount of moisture and they are associated with hard winds, even that those winds are not rough enough to be named a tropical depression or higher, they are existing and take several days to really disappear.
we will not get much effects out of it tomorrow but if the remainders stay on their course we may get tough winds and heavy rains sat morning thro monday.
my own prediction is based on what i gathered as Data before noon today, since then i do not have access to my usual weather maps, i just watch and opinion the sat maps shown on the web everywhere.
and that looks like a very high possibility of heavy rains sat morning throu monday.
for the eastern beaches it can not be of danger, but strong rains over long hours over the center of the Island would of course be.
i try to stay updated as good as possible.
i don't think the system can recover under the actual surroundings,
but that's only figures in case of windforces, the real danger is always the water, and where it passes through it will rain very hard in big amount.
for now it says we will not get a sunny beach weekend.
Mike

 

[catcherintherye]

I love reading your stuff, Mike, even when nothing is happening.

Keep up the great work!

 

[MikeFisher]

hey David,
how's it going?
it is by far not that nothing is going on now,
we had here on the sunshine east today around 10:30AM a hard wind coming upm, followed by strong rain for a short while, and this eve it rained again.
now it's quiet and calm but there is more to come, the air simply smells like more to come.
on the other side:
how green this caribbean paradise would be without some rain once in a while?
ha ha
take care
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

i have my maps and charts back, darn cyberspace.

this is the sat shot from 12:00PM/noon today,
clear to see that the destroyed system spreads out over a very wide area.
the main portion will pass the northernmost Island to the north,
but the rest which hangs out on it's southern portion is still a moisture loaded piece with a good strength of thunderstorms.
Radars from the US Virgin Islands show heavy rain out on the water west of Antigua/SE of St Croix, for tomorrow Puerto Rico should get a strong watering.
what will be left for us and how it moves is hard to predict,
there are portions moving SW, othersNW and others in all directions between.
we have high chances to get heavy rain on the east here, maybe late sat afternoon ahead, but it could arrive many hours earlier.
winds may be too strong to go offshore for fishing for us, the smaller boats will sure not get a permit to go offshore for the weekend,
but again, it's a guess, such spreading out portions are hard to predict in detail in case of their final track and how long they last before they run out of water.
at this moment we are here on the east on bright sunshine since early morning on.

let's have a look again later on in the eve.
it is for sure nothing of a danger for our Island.

nothing new expected from the far east,
for the next 3-4 days i don't expect anything new forming,
the Saharan Dust Layers moved nice southwards and are at the moment a good barrier, windshears on the highway are high.

Mike

 

[Hlywud]

radar shows it building
NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands

 

[MikeFisher]

no WUD,
Radar never shows it's building or such,
the PR Radar has still just a small first fraction of it on the screen anyways, b/c that radar which i use myself for my short term diagnoses for the next 5-10hrs refelects from San Juan towards the NW, W and SW.
Radar gives a good idea about rainloads, but says nothing about thunderstorms, wondpowers etc.
at this moment 92L is not building up forces, the opposite, it is still spreading out, covering a wider area of influence hr by hr, and by doing so weakening it's powers.
but it is not dead by far and i played this evening myself the game/guess ''what happens if it survives the mountains of hispaniola".
yes, we will get a good share of rain and our mountains will get floodings, the cows should be brought away from the rivers.
the center will most likely pass along our south coast, right there, not far offshore, so our Mountains will give it the next hit.
at the moment it still sucks in dry air and receives hard hits from high windshear, but it stays alive, a fascinating lil beast.
the game i played this eve starts when our rain will be nearly over, let's say around mid wednesday, if it really survives the windshear and dry air and the contact with our Island high mountains, the it would find itself over eastern Cuba, the Jet Stream influence passed, there the conditions will be perfect again to not just stay alive but to gain powers and reach that Tropical Depression Status. the path would be the Florida Keys and the Gulf of Mexico, on all that way til now no model predicts high windshear, for over Cuba it is actually predicted on less than 10mphr, so in such case we would watch the beast for an other week.
but that just my gameplay, it needs to survive the contact with our Dominican Mountains.
for the actual facts:
Antigua reported today max winds of 20 Knots,
so there been nothing increasing, the opposite.
the Islands there received heavy rainfalls, wind been not a prob.
late saturday PR should get tough rain.
what finally will survive and cross the channel to over here, i don't know.
it is weird, and that's fascinating,
a couple days ago i would have bet that it will be dead by today or tomorrow, but it clearly isn't.
let's prepare for strong rain late weekend,
and don't let our mountains survive a piece of it to reach Cuban surroundings to come up again.
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

even that right now for the kick off for the Australia/Ghana game the sun is out at my place, today been mostly cloudy with wind gusting nastily and it will not go better for the next 24hrs.
the main portion of 92L is located south of Puerto Rico, moving west-northwest,
it will not move upwards into the Punta Cana area, but it will pass very close or even right over the Capital City towards SE Cuba.
no dangerous winds in it, but 20-25 knots are enough to bother for the next 48hrs, and there is a large amount of rain in it, everything near rivers and the well known dangerous mountain areas should be taken to save areas.
fisrt pieces of the system can be observed with our own eyes now ower the channel, just a few miles off the coastline, they are just fractions, enough to bring also here in Punta Cana a good showering with high wind gusts,
but the mainpiece will pass south tracking towards La Romana/Santo Domingo/Barahona, somewhere there the Center will start to move over land, it will rain heaviliest in a radius of a 100 miles of the Center.

the system is going on weakening and has no chance to recover during the time it is in touch with our Island.

if it survives the hit with our mountains chances are high to see a recovery and quick strengthening again on a Track towards the Florida Keys/Gulf of Mexico,
but that's a early guess, first it has to survive our DR Topographics.

back with an update late afternoon.
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

it went and still moves like expected,
we had here on the east some hard short showers at some areas and others even stayed completely dry,
wind provided hard gusts til noon, but since then the wind is over the whole area much below average, right now here at my place there is no leaf moving in the wind since a while.
the remaining main part of the system 92L, with no dangerous windforces in it anyways, is passing south, of course leaving enough spots for s short shower on the northern side.
right now in PC we are supercalm, clouded and rainfree.
that will change for scattered areas during the next 24-30hrs, there will be more rain and there will be gusty winds, but nothing of any danger.
the center of our Island will receive a high amount of rain, it had been just 4 inches over Puerto Rico today, but our own high mountains will slow down the bypassing system so i would estimate the to expect rainfalls for the next 24hrs on 4-6 at least.
for the east coast we may get some more showers tomorrow, i don't really expect anything to be rough tomorrow, i expect the usual discussion between myself and the coast guard office to get the permit to fish while their headoffice far away in st dgo sure will keep the area under alert early morning.
the Caribbean Sea will be rough tomorrow and monday and most likely also tuesday as the aftermath, PC waters will not get over the usual average.
here on the east a bit of rain for some hours is not any danger, no rivers to flood, no mountains for a deadly mudslide.
the south and center of the Island is in a very different position, there should be expected strong rainfalls during the next couple days.
i wold guess, but of course just my guess,
that touroperators cancelled their saona island excursions for tomorrow and monday and consider 'maybe' their tuesday shedule as a vacation day, too.
locally/partially under such circumstances the Sea conditions can change within an hour from calm to death and backwards and again easily, they can not be predicted for a specific portion of waterbody.
i may do a late night update,
sure i will watch the charts,
but i don't expect any changes of the actual given way
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

so it arrived almost.
here on the east the stong winds started, even that we just get the northern piece of the system, while the main protion runs south int the caribbean Sea towards the area around Santo Domingo/Barahona.
rain is on here,
constant wind just around 15 knots,
but the gusts reach 25 knots so grab that beerbottle out there.
here in PC we will have rain from now on for most of the night and the early morning at least, it will take some long hours to pass, but nothing dangerous.
other parts of the Island should expect much more than we get here,
Punta Cana is only under the very far northern corner.
the south coast will have the next 30_ hrs dangerously rough Sea, sure no boats will be permitted to run offshore/operate, weekend off for Saona Island, lol.
the more it wanders into the caribbean Sea the more of a northwards drift it shoul get, even that the actual Track is named West, it will move upwards on the Map.
it will cross our Island somewhere in the area of the Capital and Barahona Bay,
the Earthquake area near Port Au Prince will receive strong rains, too.
while expected to be dead since days, i did myself not give the system more live than since yesterday, it is weak but active, hitting our high mountains in a few hours/during tonight.
if the system stays alive on actual powers during tonight i name it a thread for SE Cuba and then the Florida Keys, because by tomorrow late afternoon as the least it will reach very favorable conditions to come back to powers.
let's see how it looks in the morning.
umbrellas out in Santo Domingo,
bring the cattle away from the rivers.
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

NOAA took away the status to be a Invest on 92L.
the rain is located in the middle of the Caribbean Sea,
here on the East we are today mostly sunny, clouds mixing in,
wind on average but gusting up once in a while.
offshore Sea is a bit rough today, but not dangerous for the big Boats,
small vessels stay in Port.
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

a good portion of rain arrived here in Cabeza de Toro right now,
most part is south,
i would guess Saona Island is announcing ?land under??,
La Romana should get a good amount soon.
no winds involved, it is pure rain and should be passed by tomorrow for the East and SouthEast.
Mike

Go Honduras GOOO

 

[MikeFisher]

conditions for Invest 93L,
which is the name for our newest occurance on the screens, are pretty favorable.
it has much better chances to grab the 1st name of the Year, ?lex?, than 92L ever had. there is still no movement-spin visible, but Sea Surface is on top high 30C and windshear in that area is below even 10 knots,
the system is located far enough south of the Subtropcal Jetstream which destroyed 92L, so we have to watch that one while we receive during today and tomorrow the rain from the former one.
i will prepare now a shot to copy here from the actual Rain on our East and SE,
with more to come specially for the Island?s southern coastline.
back in a minute or so
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

that's what we have actually right now.
hard rain without wind on the East Coast.
Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

the rain continues from the remainders of formerly 92L.
and the new 93L looks like it feel's pretty well in the swimming pool named caribbean Sea.
no big circulation, yet, but it is organizing.
surroundings are very favorable to grow up,
so a Tropical Depression can be expected the next days to pop up on the screens.
Ocean's Surface Temps are on record highs,
windshear down there in the south is low, below 10 Knots,
the Jetstream's bad influence is far north,
no botherin dry air to bother available nearby.
the movement is still mostly westwards, but during the last hours a northwestern shift is recognizable.

actually,
here on the east we are under darkest clouds and still get showered once in a while, and by the nearby pictures of the Radar it will stay like that.
heavier parts of the rainload are a bit up north around Samana Bay now.

the area east of our Island and most of the caribbean Sea are loaded with moisture, no danger to get sunburned during the next days.

Mike