- Thread starter MikeFisher
- Start date
Hurricane Season 2011
Hi Mike, this one seems to be a potential threat to our mainland, how soon do you think Emily will be on or around our area? I'm flying to Miami next Saturday (Aug. 6) and would like to have a plan B in case my flight gets cancelled, I'm going to my daughter's college graduation which is on Aug. 13th and hopefully I'll have plenty of time to get there even in case of flight cancellation, but I like to plan ahead since I'm taking vacation from work.
Mike appears to be : 1. still asleep
2. out fishing
3. into the Presidente 's and not able to communicate ! lol
Thanks, but I have my full trust in Mike, once he wakes up/comes back from that fishing tri/finishes that Presidente he will respond, as we say here "tard?o pero seguro"
Invest 91-L Located 900 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
I think we have our first potential significant tropical cyclone threat of the 20111 Hurricane Season. Invest 91-L, located about 900 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated during the overnight hours. It does appear looking at data this morning that a fairly well organized surface circulation exists with Invest 91-L and I fully expect this system to be upgraded to Tropical Depression #5 either later today or at the latest during Sunday morning.
My main concern right now are the northeastern Caribbean Islands, including the Leeward Islands from Martinique northward to Anguilla, the US and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Everyone across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean should prepare for this potential storm this weekend. Do not wait until watches and warnings are posted and become entangled in the last minute rush to buy supplies. This system is forecast to start affecting the islands of the northeastern Caribbean as early as Monday afternoon and potentially could be a moderate to strong tropical storm or even a hurricane
I think we have our first potential significant tropical cyclone threat of the 20111 Hurricane Season. Invest 91-L, located about 900 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated during the overnight hours. It does appear looking at data this morning that a fairly well organized surface circulation exists with Invest 91-L and I fully expect this system to be upgraded to Tropical Depression #5 either later today or at the latest during Sunday morning.
My main concern right now are the northeastern Caribbean Islands, including the Leeward Islands from Martinique northward to Anguilla, the US and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Everyone across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean should prepare for this potential storm this weekend. Do not wait until watches and warnings are posted and become entangled in the last minute rush to buy supplies. This system is forecast to start affecting the islands of the northeastern Caribbean as early as Monday afternoon and potentially could be a moderate to strong tropical storm or even a hurricane
no panic Guys,
it's just the Weather as usual , and nothing else.
the problem with the Hurricane Hunters Mission from this afternoon I just Paste/Copy here, something that can happen anytime of course, no complaint towards the Brave Guys and Gals who do their verey very BEST to keep us up to date and Safe:
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1. UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATARECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THEELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THENORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATETHAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACECIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMEDTO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLESTONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ATROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HASA HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONSOF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERYSHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ISSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING. </pre>
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</pre>
it's just the Weather as usual , and nothing else.
the problem with the Hurricane Hunters Mission from this afternoon I just Paste/Copy here, something that can happen anytime of course, no complaint towards the Brave Guys and Gals who do their verey very BEST to keep us up to date and Safe:
------------------------------
1. UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATARECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THEELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THENORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATETHAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACECIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMEDTO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLESTONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ATROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HASA HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONSOF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERYSHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ISSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING. </pre>
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hey,</pre>
they should just switch to a better ""Phone Comkpany"", lol.</pre>
Marilyn been right, Chuck, but You knew it anyways and just tried to tease me away from the Beach, failed of course, he he,</pre>
I've been fishing since early on and we had a blast with a nice white Marlin of 75lbs firstly, a really great Dorado/mahi of 45lbs as 2nd and finally we also found what the Main target of the day had been, after failing on 2 Blue Marlin to set a Hook we got our 350lbs Father's Day Target right aside the Boat before we cut the line and let it go to meet again next Years Fathers day.</pre>
</pre>
Invest 91L is due the Communications trouble of the Hunter Flight still just a Invest, shown as a 100% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone the next 48hrs, but they still did not announce it even a Tropical depression.</pre>
</pre>
and we have a ""Split Screen"",</pre>
as 91L is still some Distance out on the East of the Islands, there is a 2nd Disturbance/a split portion of 91L?? or such, anyways simply some heavy weather over the Central Antilles right now dumping a good share of Rain and providing some nasty Wind Gusts.</pre>
WUD,</pre>
Your Report about the 900 miles East located Disturbance is 2 Days Old, it came quiet closer since then, the Rain even arrived atb the Antilles, I don't know which weather site would name the System Today a 900 miles away still.</pre>
</pre>
IMHO the Tracking stays the same, over or close near the Virgins/Eastern Puerto Rico,</pre>
and I still disagree that it is not a Storm already, as it shows Circulation and has the windspeed to be since long a Tropical Storm.</pre>
let's wait til tonight to see what the Weather Gods revise on their Preditions when they bring their evening Updates,</pre>
to Me we have a wide Area of Disturbed weather with Thunderstorms over the Central Antilles right now and a Tropical Storm Emily walking right behind the same Path on the grow to provide the Islands during Monday and Tuesday with a weak Hurricane Cat 1 Power.</pre>
there is def the next Hunter Mission Needed to get the right Idea, it is pure speculations by now.</pre>
hopefully tomorrow they will have their Cellphones Charged, If it is a Storm there will almost be No Forewarning for the Eastern Islands, they will get caught with their Pants down and just in case they should have started to Prepare by now.</pre>
we will see before midnight.</pre>
</pre>
cheers</pre>
</pre>
Mike</pre>
they should just switch to a better ""Phone Comkpany"", lol.</pre>
Marilyn been right, Chuck, but You knew it anyways and just tried to tease me away from the Beach, failed of course, he he,</pre>
I've been fishing since early on and we had a blast with a nice white Marlin of 75lbs firstly, a really great Dorado/mahi of 45lbs as 2nd and finally we also found what the Main target of the day had been, after failing on 2 Blue Marlin to set a Hook we got our 350lbs Father's Day Target right aside the Boat before we cut the line and let it go to meet again next Years Fathers day.</pre>
</pre>
Invest 91L is due the Communications trouble of the Hunter Flight still just a Invest, shown as a 100% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone the next 48hrs, but they still did not announce it even a Tropical depression.</pre>
</pre>
and we have a ""Split Screen"",</pre>
as 91L is still some Distance out on the East of the Islands, there is a 2nd Disturbance/a split portion of 91L?? or such, anyways simply some heavy weather over the Central Antilles right now dumping a good share of Rain and providing some nasty Wind Gusts.</pre>
WUD,</pre>
Your Report about the 900 miles East located Disturbance is 2 Days Old, it came quiet closer since then, the Rain even arrived atb the Antilles, I don't know which weather site would name the System Today a 900 miles away still.</pre>
</pre>
IMHO the Tracking stays the same, over or close near the Virgins/Eastern Puerto Rico,</pre>
and I still disagree that it is not a Storm already, as it shows Circulation and has the windspeed to be since long a Tropical Storm.</pre>
let's wait til tonight to see what the Weather Gods revise on their Preditions when they bring their evening Updates,</pre>
to Me we have a wide Area of Disturbed weather with Thunderstorms over the Central Antilles right now and a Tropical Storm Emily walking right behind the same Path on the grow to provide the Islands during Monday and Tuesday with a weak Hurricane Cat 1 Power.</pre>
there is def the next Hunter Mission Needed to get the right Idea, it is pure speculations by now.</pre>
hopefully tomorrow they will have their Cellphones Charged, If it is a Storm there will almost be No Forewarning for the Eastern Islands, they will get caught with their Pants down and just in case they should have started to Prepare by now.</pre>
we will see before midnight.</pre>
</pre>
cheers</pre>
</pre>
Mike</pre>
I don't speak spanish ( I'm working on it though) but it still sounds like ole fashion suckin up to me. lol hell, even the MIKE ! can't change the weather never mind predict it. lol
I still did not even start with da presidente, as we had to kill the Whiskey during Daytime,
o.k., maybe a greenie or two on the Beach with the Girls afterwards for Lunch or such, a Minor Breeze, such doesn't really count, lolol.
it really looks like there are 2 Systems one behind an other, one is already over the Antilles and produces strong Rainfalls theer, the other one is our 91L right behind promising more Rain to come for the same Areas there.
how they will Develop independend or together or kill one an other?, I don't know.
the only certain thingy is a heck of Rain walking over the Antilles and the leftovers will be a still impressive Load to wander NW'wards to water my Backyard.
91L had a full Spin since a Day and been IMHO a TD and still is, windspeed is at the Border to be even a TS since long, but I don't know if the touch between the 2 will slow such down or if it may make it just more Moistureous.
the Night should bring some Light on that one, so in the Morning we should see something more definitive.
as the Hunters could not provide data this afternoon hopefully they will do so on their next Attempt sheduled for tomorrow/Monday morning, so by mid morning we should get something to count on.
it will be btw very late for the Antilles, as the System is already approaching, no or at lest not more than a very short/few Nighttime Hours forwarning Time.
for our Sunny Isle we are still a way to go away and we will get the "shout out loud" much earlier, in case we need to bring da Cattle in.
right now here on the East we have a fresh Breeze of around 15mphr, feels very good after a Hot Sunny Humid Day, Ocean is still calm but expected to come up to it's average of 4-5ft, we have quiet some Rainy Portions over the Mona Channel on the Radar, but nothing big, it is the usual shower Areas which bring a short watering to one Area while the neighbours a few hundred Yards aside will stay Dry.
Mike
o.k., maybe a greenie or two on the Beach with the Girls afterwards for Lunch or such, a Minor Breeze, such doesn't really count, lolol.
it really looks like there are 2 Systems one behind an other, one is already over the Antilles and produces strong Rainfalls theer, the other one is our 91L right behind promising more Rain to come for the same Areas there.
how they will Develop independend or together or kill one an other?, I don't know.
the only certain thingy is a heck of Rain walking over the Antilles and the leftovers will be a still impressive Load to wander NW'wards to water my Backyard.
91L had a full Spin since a Day and been IMHO a TD and still is, windspeed is at the Border to be even a TS since long, but I don't know if the touch between the 2 will slow such down or if it may make it just more Moistureous.
the Night should bring some Light on that one, so in the Morning we should see something more definitive.
as the Hunters could not provide data this afternoon hopefully they will do so on their next Attempt sheduled for tomorrow/Monday morning, so by mid morning we should get something to count on.
it will be btw very late for the Antilles, as the System is already approaching, no or at lest not more than a very short/few Nighttime Hours forwarning Time.
for our Sunny Isle we are still a way to go away and we will get the "shout out loud" much earlier, in case we need to bring da Cattle in.
right now here on the East we have a fresh Breeze of around 15mphr, feels very good after a Hot Sunny Humid Day, Ocean is still calm but expected to come up to it's average of 4-5ft, we have quiet some Rainy Portions over the Mona Channel on the Radar, but nothing big, it is the usual shower Areas which bring a short watering to one Area while the neighbours a few hundred Yards aside will stay Dry.
Mike
the Keyboard??
in case such come's my way You will know when I do not answer here on the Thread,
'Cause I bounced the Starting Buttons for da Engines on the boat to run the heck outtha here and watch a Storm relaxed at Cap Cana Marina, which will anyways be the Mainbase from 2nd next Monday ahead for a long Future, he he.
we had here a nice Breeze an hour ago,
it went dead calm, actually no Palmleaf is moving, calm Ocean, some Stars up in the Skies,
that's no Beertime,
I guess I will wake up the Mrs on Her couch now and we take a stroll to the Pier with a bottle of Wine.
Mike
in case such come's my way You will know when I do not answer here on the Thread,
'Cause I bounced the Starting Buttons for da Engines on the boat to run the heck outtha here and watch a Storm relaxed at Cap Cana Marina, which will anyways be the Mainbase from 2nd next Monday ahead for a long Future, he he.
we had here a nice Breeze an hour ago,
it went dead calm, actually no Palmleaf is moving, calm Ocean, some Stars up in the Skies,
that's no Beertime,
I guess I will wake up the Mrs on Her couch now and we take a stroll to the Pier with a bottle of Wine.
Mike
the Hunters are on their Job, the Results should be up soon.
I await 91L to be Tropical depression TD#5 at least or even right away Tropical Storm Emily.
Location is less than 300 Miles east of the islands, Forewarning Time is near zero.
it looks as the Systemd the last Hours almost straight Westward, heading for the Caribbean Sea.
at the Moment it finishes with the Antilles we will see what the further Path looks like and who needs to get prepared.
it is wandering quiet quick on near 15mphr Forward.
will have a look early afternoon, TYime to hit the Road now.
Mike
I await 91L to be Tropical depression TD#5 at least or even right away Tropical Storm Emily.
Location is less than 300 Miles east of the islands, Forewarning Time is near zero.
it looks as the Systemd the last Hours almost straight Westward, heading for the Caribbean Sea.
at the Moment it finishes with the Antilles we will see what the further Path looks like and who needs to get prepared.
it is wandering quiet quick on near 15mphr Forward.
will have a look early afternoon, TYime to hit the Road now.
Mike
Fellow DR1ers, here is one of the well-put together weather page for your information during the hurricane season, I am sure you want to bookmark it in you weather pages: 2011 Hurricane Season - Dominican Republic Live ! - The 2011 hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Bahamas.
Emily!!!!
~The name Emily has been used for five tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, and five tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. It was used in the Eastern Pacific before the formal naming system was instituted, and then it was used on the old four-year lists.
Atlantic:
1981's Hurricane Emily - crossed Bermuda
Hurricane Emily (1987) - caused considerable damage to Saint Vincent, Dominican Republic, and Bermuda.
Hurricane Emily (1993) - came within 25 miles of Hatteras Island, North Carolina
1999's Tropical Storm Emily - absorbed by Hurricane Cindy without threatening land.
Hurricane Emily (2005) - struck Grenada, Quintana Roo, and Tamaulipas.
~Emily in a name "Tropical or Hurricane" has NEVER been good~ Let's hope this one fizzels out....
.
~The name Emily has been used for five tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, and five tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. It was used in the Eastern Pacific before the formal naming system was instituted, and then it was used on the old four-year lists.
Atlantic:
1981's Hurricane Emily - crossed Bermuda
Hurricane Emily (1987) - caused considerable damage to Saint Vincent, Dominican Republic, and Bermuda.
Hurricane Emily (1993) - came within 25 miles of Hatteras Island, North Carolina
1999's Tropical Storm Emily - absorbed by Hurricane Cindy without threatening land.
Hurricane Emily (2005) - struck Grenada, Quintana Roo, and Tamaulipas.
~Emily in a name "Tropical or Hurricane" has NEVER been good~ Let's hope this one fizzels out....