- Thread starter MikeFisher
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Hurricane Season 2011
""IF"" Emily would now start to turn NW and cross the island near the Haitian Border or even over Haiti, they would get just the smallest Share, as the Rainloads are located on the Noirtheast, they would then run over the DR til over vhere on the east, not over Haiti.
haiti would be in such scenario only in for a 4-5 inches of rain, double that for the eastern neighbour of Haiti.
but anyways,
Emily is still running a straight westward Track, not Intensification visible, she is running well South and well West of all predicted Forcasted Waypoints,
We can completely forget what been forecasted yesterday , last night, this morning and what is still shown on most forecasting sites, as She is not on any of the Forecasted Paths.
as long as Emily does not get much more Powers She will not be influenced/Steered/Turned by the steering Winds which would turn Her NW'wards.
we have now quiet a large waterload south of Saona Island, luckily it seems to stay over water, close but over water, a few Miles North and La Romana would go Land Under.
we will see how it moves for the rest of the Southshores West of La Romana.
Mike
haiti would be in such scenario only in for a 4-5 inches of rain, double that for the eastern neighbour of Haiti.
but anyways,
Emily is still running a straight westward Track, not Intensification visible, she is running well South and well West of all predicted Forcasted Waypoints,
We can completely forget what been forecasted yesterday , last night, this morning and what is still shown on most forecasting sites, as She is not on any of the Forecasted Paths.
as long as Emily does not get much more Powers She will not be influenced/Steered/Turned by the steering Winds which would turn Her NW'wards.
we have now quiet a large waterload south of Saona Island, luckily it seems to stay over water, close but over water, a few Miles North and La Romana would go Land Under.
we will see how it moves for the rest of the Southshores West of La Romana.
Mike
I remember growing up and my father (a retired Navy captain) always taking lots of preparations whenever a hurricane was in the area. We all would mock him and there was a kind of disappointment when the storm did not hit. After living through David, I share the belief that it is better to overdo, than be optimistic when the big storms are involved. Capitan Costello probably lived through Georges, that hit the Marina de Casa de Campo quite bad, and probably that is why he preferred to be on the safe side. The forecast is still for lots of rain, but I think my plants will appreciate if I take them outdoors.
brief periods of showers with wind gusts in the Puerto Plata mountain area about 1/2 hour ago, right now all is calm.
It is always best to be prepared than not.
I remember Olga 2007 in Dec. we had 80mph winds and lost the roof to the stable. The roads looked like a war zone and took 3 days to get out. I was under-prepared for that one and quite frightened of the intensity that the gusts were packing.
We lost trees and spent roughly 10 days of clean-up.
It is always best to be prepared than not.
I remember Olga 2007 in Dec. we had 80mph winds and lost the roof to the stable. The roads looked like a war zone and took 3 days to get out. I was under-prepared for that one and quite frightened of the intensity that the gusts were packing.
We lost trees and spent roughly 10 days of clean-up.
I also remember Olga well... she was way out of the expected time for a tropical storm and, I believe I am right in saying that the 'powers that be' opened the dams in Santiago which is why so many homes were flooded from broken river banks right down to Sabaneta de Yasica and beyond.
rainy most of the late afternoon here in cabeza de Toro on the East, wind is down since a couple hours or so, maybe 5-6Knots of wind only, very calm.
at this moment the rain is just a light sprinkling, but we have more water moving in right in front of the Coast, doesn't look as any significant winds involved there.
Emily is falling apart in different sections,
the still present Thunderstorms are on the East of the Storm, the water is on the Nirtheast, the Surface Low Pressure System itself(which should be the Center and that should be surriunded by Thunderstorm to build a real center/Wall like) can be easily seen on the satellite Maps, as it is running alone there.
I took quiet some time now to watch the Sat Loop very careful and detailed, to Me it looks as if the Pressure Low would be 2 different sections, too, one where still is shown as the center, and a second portion some Miles North of that Position.
will it build a New Center and try to build new Thunderstorms around such Center?
I don't think Emily can make that, she looks weak and bounced around, but on the other hand the shown Surface Pressure dropped down to 1003mb during the last hours, such would be a sign of Intensification, but I can't see any strengthening, not even a real Organization of the Storm.
I say it will go on straight West for several more hours at least and due windshear and Dry Air not manage to reorganize Thunderstorms around a Center during this Evening.
and such would be good for Us, because by then it would have passed far enough to the west to not bring us the yesterday predicted Huge Dangers.
absolutely correct Dolores, much better Safe a hundred Times than sorry Once.
Hortensia caught Us here very poor to Not Prepared, we've been in Bavaro without real Food for quiet a while, no deliveries from the South arrived for a long Time, no electricity in the whole Area, the Houses been under water and on many Locations we could not pass the Mudd not even with the Big 4x4's.
since then I prefer to be prepared all Season long, costs almost nothing Moneywise, just a little bit of planning, as most needed Things are anyways used in any household, it is just necessary to keep a larger Stock of those Vital things than usual, if nothing happens such Food and Drinks and Meds etc etc can be used little by little during the following Months, no big extra Expenses, just a larger Stock in the House than usual.
right now finishing this Posting it went dead Calm here on the East, barely a Palmtree moving, Skies are full cloudy, but Rqin stopped now, too, at least for the Moment.
let's stayed Tuned,
if Emily kicks Herself to heck tonight we can go back to the usual Caribbean Sweet Life Tomorrow morning,
otherwise we will be ready for what ever surprise may come.
I don't see any possible "surprise" out there, but that's not the Law of Nature, just my ole Eyes, lol.
Mike
at this moment the rain is just a light sprinkling, but we have more water moving in right in front of the Coast, doesn't look as any significant winds involved there.
Emily is falling apart in different sections,
the still present Thunderstorms are on the East of the Storm, the water is on the Nirtheast, the Surface Low Pressure System itself(which should be the Center and that should be surriunded by Thunderstorm to build a real center/Wall like) can be easily seen on the satellite Maps, as it is running alone there.
I took quiet some time now to watch the Sat Loop very careful and detailed, to Me it looks as if the Pressure Low would be 2 different sections, too, one where still is shown as the center, and a second portion some Miles North of that Position.
will it build a New Center and try to build new Thunderstorms around such Center?
I don't think Emily can make that, she looks weak and bounced around, but on the other hand the shown Surface Pressure dropped down to 1003mb during the last hours, such would be a sign of Intensification, but I can't see any strengthening, not even a real Organization of the Storm.
I say it will go on straight West for several more hours at least and due windshear and Dry Air not manage to reorganize Thunderstorms around a Center during this Evening.
and such would be good for Us, because by then it would have passed far enough to the west to not bring us the yesterday predicted Huge Dangers.
absolutely correct Dolores, much better Safe a hundred Times than sorry Once.
Hortensia caught Us here very poor to Not Prepared, we've been in Bavaro without real Food for quiet a while, no deliveries from the South arrived for a long Time, no electricity in the whole Area, the Houses been under water and on many Locations we could not pass the Mudd not even with the Big 4x4's.
since then I prefer to be prepared all Season long, costs almost nothing Moneywise, just a little bit of planning, as most needed Things are anyways used in any household, it is just necessary to keep a larger Stock of those Vital things than usual, if nothing happens such Food and Drinks and Meds etc etc can be used little by little during the following Months, no big extra Expenses, just a larger Stock in the House than usual.
right now finishing this Posting it went dead Calm here on the East, barely a Palmtree moving, Skies are full cloudy, but Rqin stopped now, too, at least for the Moment.
let's stayed Tuned,
if Emily kicks Herself to heck tonight we can go back to the usual Caribbean Sweet Life Tomorrow morning,
otherwise we will be ready for what ever surprise may come.
I don't see any possible "surprise" out there, but that's not the Law of Nature, just my ole Eyes, lol.
Mike
Drake,
the Rainportions of Emily She pushed Up Northwards from Her "Center" since before Noon Today,
but the System itself did not move any North til now, straight Westward Hooo.
Mike
the Rainportions of Emily She pushed Up Northwards from Her "Center" since before Noon Today,
but the System itself did not move any North til now, straight Westward Hooo.
Mike
here You can watch what is moving in front of my Door,
but still all is extremely Calm and actually not even raining anymore.
NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands
Mike
but still all is extremely Calm and actually not even raining anymore.
NWS radar image loop of Long Range Reflectivity from Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands
Mike
with Her Center located somewhere South of barahona, Emily is Stationary/No Forward Move since a couple hours.
even still a lot of Rain nearby offshore, we stayed dry here on the East since my last post, wind is nothing significant, some Gusts once ina while, but nothing special.
as a Landfall destin I would say the DR is out of the Game, but careful, keep in mind that her strongest Powers are concentrated still on Her North and NE, I would expect that our southshores receive quiet some Winds.
How is the Wind on the South???
Maintarget by the Models Predictions is now again Haiti, the Models still predict that Emily will turn North, heck, what a game, but they say so, we will see.
if the Models are right and Emly Turns Tonight/within the next 10 hrs, then She would Hit Haiti with Her Center and bring Heaviest Rainloads over the DR, that Danger is for Us by far not gone.
the Forecasts on Rainamounts for the DR on such Pass over Haiti exceed the 10inches of waterload Mark by Far.
let's stay Tuned,
and let Us know if You feel any of Her stronger Winds down there on the South.
Mike
even still a lot of Rain nearby offshore, we stayed dry here on the East since my last post, wind is nothing significant, some Gusts once ina while, but nothing special.
as a Landfall destin I would say the DR is out of the Game, but careful, keep in mind that her strongest Powers are concentrated still on Her North and NE, I would expect that our southshores receive quiet some Winds.
How is the Wind on the South???
Maintarget by the Models Predictions is now again Haiti, the Models still predict that Emily will turn North, heck, what a game, but they say so, we will see.
if the Models are right and Emly Turns Tonight/within the next 10 hrs, then She would Hit Haiti with Her Center and bring Heaviest Rainloads over the DR, that Danger is for Us by far not gone.
the Forecasts on Rainamounts for the DR on such Pass over Haiti exceed the 10inches of waterload Mark by Far.
let's stay Tuned,
and let Us know if You feel any of Her stronger Winds down there on the South.
Mike
Emily is on the Move again.
at the Moment it is a just 5mphr straight Westward tracking.
I just hope she will speed up a bit, 5mphr is a typical speed for a strong Big Gal dumping down EWaterloads for many many Hours at the effected Areas.
by the Computer Models the estimated Hitpoint is now SW Haiti, SE Cuba and then a Visit to Disneyland.
looks like She relocated her Center at the bit further North Position, but Her Heading is now again Straight West.
she is still under Windshear and poisoned by Dry Air, I do not give Her a Chance for a quick Intensification as long as She stays down Here in the caribbean Sea. Chance sfor such would be much better near the bahamas and the Florida Channel, but without a Grow Up on Powers down here she will not get influenced by the steering Winds needed to turn Her Northwards.
My Omaginations does not see Her turn Northwards tonight.
When the Night Comes,
in the morning we will see what She did or not tonight.
I say she sticks to her Westward Hoo Tracking and does not Gain Powers as long as she is near Hispaniola.
here on the Eastshores we are still very Calm and completely Dry, no Rain in Cabeza de Toro.
the Sea is sorrily a big dangerous Mess out there,
so the Fisherman will have tomorrow again plenty of Time to watch Emily Play, cause no playing with da Fishies very soon.
Mike
at the Moment it is a just 5mphr straight Westward tracking.
I just hope she will speed up a bit, 5mphr is a typical speed for a strong Big Gal dumping down EWaterloads for many many Hours at the effected Areas.
by the Computer Models the estimated Hitpoint is now SW Haiti, SE Cuba and then a Visit to Disneyland.
looks like She relocated her Center at the bit further North Position, but Her Heading is now again Straight West.
she is still under Windshear and poisoned by Dry Air, I do not give Her a Chance for a quick Intensification as long as She stays down Here in the caribbean Sea. Chance sfor such would be much better near the bahamas and the Florida Channel, but without a Grow Up on Powers down here she will not get influenced by the steering Winds needed to turn Her Northwards.
My Omaginations does not see Her turn Northwards tonight.
When the Night Comes,
in the morning we will see what She did or not tonight.
I say she sticks to her Westward Hoo Tracking and does not Gain Powers as long as she is near Hispaniola.
here on the Eastshores we are still very Calm and completely Dry, no Rain in Cabeza de Toro.
the Sea is sorrily a big dangerous Mess out there,
so the Fisherman will have tomorrow again plenty of Time to watch Emily Play, cause no playing with da Fishies very soon.
Mike
the Constant Rain started here on the East around Midnight, is still on and will stay on for many more Hours.
it is coming down softly, Zero Wind involved, we don't have not even the slightest Breeze nor Gusts or such.
Emily is not Intensifying, the opposite, Pressure been rising more and She stays on Her 5mphr straight westward Tracking.
that Rain will go on for long and it will pass the Island from East to West very slowly.
Mike
it is coming down softly, Zero Wind involved, we don't have not even the slightest Breeze nor Gusts or such.
Emily is not Intensifying, the opposite, Pressure been rising more and She stays on Her 5mphr straight westward Tracking.
that Rain will go on for long and it will pass the Island from East to West very slowly.
Mike