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hurricane season 2017
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Just walked up to the local colmado, asking people about the hurricane. Some had no idea at all - those that don't watch TV or radio or are on their smart phones all day, which was the majority. Those that listened to the radio said man on radio said it wasn't coming here - "no va pasar na". One old man told me that if the leaves on the yarumbo tree turned upside down he would believe a hurricane was coming so he would watch the trees (sod all that tracking stuff - the tree tells you). Actually he is right the leaves on the yarumbo tree do flip over when a hurricane is coming.
Matilda
Matilda
the NE'er Islands under Hurricane Warning.
at this momentIrma is walking straight West and it did so the last 90 minutes.
would be a nice trend, but it could mean nothing, as such thing does not wander on a straight line, theer are always slight ups and downs so the shown lines are the average of the done movement.
let's see if it is still straight west by this evening, as that would mean taht the Ridge is on retreat.
a no more southerly Track tonight and tomorrow would help a lot beause Irma is already down on just 17.6N on the Maps.
below the 17th a Turn would most likey be too late to cuve the thing up, it would the more likely go into the Islands and get stuck there interacting with Land and just force itself through.
Mike
at this momentIrma is walking straight West and it did so the last 90 minutes.
would be a nice trend, but it could mean nothing, as such thing does not wander on a straight line, theer are always slight ups and downs so the shown lines are the average of the done movement.
let's see if it is still straight west by this evening, as that would mean taht the Ridge is on retreat.
a no more southerly Track tonight and tomorrow would help a lot beause Irma is already down on just 17.6N on the Maps.
below the 17th a Turn would most likey be too late to cuve the thing up, it would the more likely go into the Islands and get stuck there interacting with Land and just force itself through.
Mike
So my wife went shopping yesterday and ran into a couple of friends. One said; "never been a hurricane on the N.C." Wife responded; "U.S. never has had a Harvey." Being on the N.C., on the ocean we have become concerned and rather then wait, are taking positive actions. The food will not spoil and other things will be used at a later date. Paying it forward in advance.
Stocked up on lots of can goods. Anyone care for some Spam? The canned meat stuff. Really bad but is a food... sort of. Over tripled our normal food bill for the week thanks to the extra bags of dog food.
We will have two other refrig/freezers that have been in storage on line tomorrow. We have another kitchen area that is more protected so will set that up. Another shopping day to fill the freezer sections up. Top of the LPG tanks. Top off car and container fuels. Generator fuel has over 300 gallons.
Have 30 sheets of 5/8" plywood ordered and some 2"X4"s to delivered Mon. or Tues. and crews/equip. standing by. We have a lot of full size sliders and windows that give us a great view of the Atlantic Ocean that is .... right in our back yard. It is going to be awesome to see 21 to 31' waves... thru the plywood? Lot's of furniture and stuff being moved to the other side of the house that is more protected.
We have even had our coconuts harvested a little early since they can help be a food/water source but a 5 lb ? ball hurled at around 120 MPH kinda makes me want them not around.
Solar panels? Most likely will take 20 of them down. A BIG pain but a bigger one seeing them fly away like a frisby but never to return.
But I'm a cover all the bases type guy. Even a pooper scooper and mops for the dogs when needed.
Give thought to what you need to do and do it please. A forward investment today ... may save your life.
Good Luck.
Stocked up on lots of can goods. Anyone care for some Spam? The canned meat stuff. Really bad but is a food... sort of. Over tripled our normal food bill for the week thanks to the extra bags of dog food.
We will have two other refrig/freezers that have been in storage on line tomorrow. We have another kitchen area that is more protected so will set that up. Another shopping day to fill the freezer sections up. Top of the LPG tanks. Top off car and container fuels. Generator fuel has over 300 gallons.
Have 30 sheets of 5/8" plywood ordered and some 2"X4"s to delivered Mon. or Tues. and crews/equip. standing by. We have a lot of full size sliders and windows that give us a great view of the Atlantic Ocean that is .... right in our back yard. It is going to be awesome to see 21 to 31' waves... thru the plywood? Lot's of furniture and stuff being moved to the other side of the house that is more protected.
We have even had our coconuts harvested a little early since they can help be a food/water source but a 5 lb ? ball hurled at around 120 MPH kinda makes me want them not around.
Solar panels? Most likely will take 20 of them down. A BIG pain but a bigger one seeing them fly away like a frisby but never to return.
But I'm a cover all the bases type guy. Even a pooper scooper and mops for the dogs when needed.
Give thought to what you need to do and do it please. A forward investment today ... may save your life.
Good Luck.
The closest approach to Puerto Plata is currently 135 miles at 9.45 pm on Thursday based on the 2100Z NHC plot. This puts the north coast in Tropical Storm force winds.
Dr Solar -- don't know where you are but removing the solar panels is probably a bit extreme especially if they are properly installed.
Olly and the Team
Dr Solar -- don't know where you are but removing the solar panels is probably a bit extreme especially if they are properly installed.
Olly and the Team
properly installed panel have no prb with the wind of that, but damage due flying Coconuts and other stuff the neighbours didn't take down lazily can bring p.i.t.azz damage.
20 of'em sounds like a heck of workload to take down and install again.
if the powerlines for your area get damaged, which they often do under TS Force, you would be a very happy camper to have the panels up and running for your stocked freezers.
Mike
I didn't thank Mr. Fisher for all that he does. So... Thank You Mr. Fisher.
We each have to look at what we have and how we will be effected. My panels are on the north side/ocean side of my house roof and tilted to get the max of our sun from the south and the most exposed to ocean winds from the north. They should handle a Cat 1 but with about U.S. $5K I'd rather take them down since we don't know yet what is going to happen. And IF lines are down for how long? I can be up and runner solar in a day.
A couple of guys moving them is a few thousand D.P. and replacing them a couple more. Buying, shipping, waiting/paying for power, installing and getting up and running again is several U.S. $1,000's
So. 1,000's in D.P. or in U.S. $ ?
The Generator is good to good as needed.
Thanks guys.
We each have to look at what we have and how we will be effected. My panels are on the north side/ocean side of my house roof and tilted to get the max of our sun from the south and the most exposed to ocean winds from the north. They should handle a Cat 1 but with about U.S. $5K I'd rather take them down since we don't know yet what is going to happen. And IF lines are down for how long? I can be up and runner solar in a day.
A couple of guys moving them is a few thousand D.P. and replacing them a couple more. Buying, shipping, waiting/paying for power, installing and getting up and running again is several U.S. $1,000's
So. 1,000's in D.P. or in U.S. $ ?
The Generator is good to good as needed.
Thanks guys.
I wonder if that's because the tree flipped over in the wind.
Nope it is known that the yarumbo trees leaves flip over in a hurricane - not the tree. So I have one and will be watching it lol.
Matilda
HWRF animated run just now showing it passing north coast of DR:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana..._wind&runtime=2017090318&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=32
Click the arrow at the top of the page to get animation.
Suggests some fairly strong tropical storm force winds in Samana, Cabrera and easing further west. Color code on right.
40 knots 46mph
50 knots 58mph
60 knots 69mph
Most of the model runs are getting closer so might give you an idea what we may encounter.
By my reckoning the run appears initiated a bit further north (10 to 20km) and east than the actual position recently confirmed by Recon flight into the storm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana..._wind&runtime=2017090318&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=32
Click the arrow at the top of the page to get animation.
Suggests some fairly strong tropical storm force winds in Samana, Cabrera and easing further west. Color code on right.
40 knots 46mph
50 knots 58mph
60 knots 69mph
Most of the model runs are getting closer so might give you an idea what we may encounter.
By my reckoning the run appears initiated a bit further north (10 to 20km) and east than the actual position recently confirmed by Recon flight into the storm.
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Solar panels
All will be tipped south, therefore catching the north wind underneath.
Nice to hear good installation helps..fingers crossed.
I have some sort of German windows ... strong.... but never tested
I'll be coaching my main man
All will be tipped south, therefore catching the north wind underneath.
Nice to hear good installation helps..fingers crossed.
I have some sort of German windows ... strong.... but never tested
I'll be coaching my main man
The 1020mb Frontiers staed stable and strong all evening long just about 600 miles N of Irma,
I fear it will dive South tonight and be positioned weel below 17thN before a Turn.
if that come's true the Mainforce will walk straight over several of the Northern Islands
and continue as a close call for NE Puerto Rico to receive the Hurricane Winds.
such further line will be closer along our Northshores than predicted the last days
with sure TS Force winds all along the DR Northshores.
Main impact is a immense Storm Surge of 25ft+ which always has a significant extra load of swells on top of such.
swells in such heavy Sea reach usually 2.5 times the on Maps/forecasts shown measured average Wave Height.
those water powers are a Force our Island doesn't know about, we never had to deal with such.
meanless to mention the rainloads, above described Tracking line will bring the full rain of the Storm all over the Islands.
we can just hope that Irma does not slow down it's forward speed, every hours less of such impacts/Rains can be a safer for many. and a slower forward speed let the Windforce on the left side of a counterclockwise rotating Storm be well stronger a s blowing Force, and we are on the Left side of Irma.
Irma did not intensify and while it looked perfectly fine all afternoon long it looks again a bit deformd this evening.
maybe some reconstruction work is in process. the surrounding conditions do not show any reason why the Stom should struggle or not intensify, but it did not gain additional Forces.
if it is rebuilding somethig that would be done in some hours and the bar could be raised during tomorrow before touch with Land will be the new power factor on the calculations.
over all it should stay a Cat3 until approachin Puerto Rico, which will be the first high Mountain Ranges on the track.
PR Terrain too close been always a knock down even for very big Storms, so there is hope that a temporary knock down will set in. every 5mphr less on the maximum windspeed will be less destructive Wind and Storm Surge Powers sent our way.
this Biach starts to become serious shut.
Puerto Rico will go on Hurricane Warning for their East tomorrow by those outlooks,
if that's the Case Tropical Storm warning for the NE and along the full N of DR will be in order a few hours later.
tomorrow is the Time to have a protection Plan for the NE and N for your home ready, as you may hear the official advisories to get your stuff done quickly then.
such Storm sends clouds a far distance ahead of it's Mainbuilding, so on wednesday we should already get a look on the Scouts of the follwoing Forces.
Mike
I fear it will dive South tonight and be positioned weel below 17thN before a Turn.
if that come's true the Mainforce will walk straight over several of the Northern Islands
and continue as a close call for NE Puerto Rico to receive the Hurricane Winds.
such further line will be closer along our Northshores than predicted the last days
with sure TS Force winds all along the DR Northshores.
Main impact is a immense Storm Surge of 25ft+ which always has a significant extra load of swells on top of such.
swells in such heavy Sea reach usually 2.5 times the on Maps/forecasts shown measured average Wave Height.
those water powers are a Force our Island doesn't know about, we never had to deal with such.
meanless to mention the rainloads, above described Tracking line will bring the full rain of the Storm all over the Islands.
we can just hope that Irma does not slow down it's forward speed, every hours less of such impacts/Rains can be a safer for many. and a slower forward speed let the Windforce on the left side of a counterclockwise rotating Storm be well stronger a s blowing Force, and we are on the Left side of Irma.
Irma did not intensify and while it looked perfectly fine all afternoon long it looks again a bit deformd this evening.
maybe some reconstruction work is in process. the surrounding conditions do not show any reason why the Stom should struggle or not intensify, but it did not gain additional Forces.
if it is rebuilding somethig that would be done in some hours and the bar could be raised during tomorrow before touch with Land will be the new power factor on the calculations.
over all it should stay a Cat3 until approachin Puerto Rico, which will be the first high Mountain Ranges on the track.
PR Terrain too close been always a knock down even for very big Storms, so there is hope that a temporary knock down will set in. every 5mphr less on the maximum windspeed will be less destructive Wind and Storm Surge Powers sent our way.
this Biach starts to become serious shut.
Puerto Rico will go on Hurricane Warning for their East tomorrow by those outlooks,
if that's the Case Tropical Storm warning for the NE and along the full N of DR will be in order a few hours later.
tomorrow is the Time to have a protection Plan for the NE and N for your home ready, as you may hear the official advisories to get your stuff done quickly then.
such Storm sends clouds a far distance ahead of it's Mainbuilding, so on wednesday we should already get a look on the Scouts of the follwoing Forces.
Mike
if it doesn't shift out,
a small field of high windshear could do effects during tomorrow.
they could be positive as hindering increasing the powers, still while touching PR Mountains,
a classic scebnario we observed very often when Big Ones got drastically degraded quickly on approach.
a negative effect of the same windshear, strong 40+Knots winds on the highest level in the strobosphere,
would be there influence on teh Steering.
they blow from NE'erly directions towards SW and could bother/hinder a further northwards drift of the Storm.
Mike
a small field of high windshear could do effects during tomorrow.
they could be positive as hindering increasing the powers, still while touching PR Mountains,
a classic scebnario we observed very often when Big Ones got drastically degraded quickly on approach.
a negative effect of the same windshear, strong 40+Knots winds on the highest level in the strobosphere,
would be there influence on teh Steering.
they blow from NE'erly directions towards SW and could bother/hinder a further northwards drift of the Storm.
Mike
For all folks on North Coast, you should be aware that the further drift south of the cone in the NHC 5am report is because the UKMet weather model 2am run is predicting that Hurricane Irma as a strong Cat 4 event will dip down into or very close the North Shore of the DR on Thursday. This is an outlier and the other models still maintain the previous general tracking. Models don't confirm anything as definite but are used to average the NHC track and cone of potential track. Click on computer models in link below to see.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma
You should plan for the worst and hope for the best as I will do.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma
You should plan for the worst and hope for the best as I will do.
The waves present another north coast problem
I can think of several areas that will really suffer from 20-25 ft waves.
How about anything within the 60M rule ??
OUCH!!
I can think of several areas that will really suffer from 20-25 ft waves.
How about anything within the 60M rule ??
OUCH!!
ONAMET is issuing early warning and predicting heavy rainfall on wednsday night and thursday morning. the most affected areas will be hato mayor, samana, monte cristi, maria trinidad sanchez, espaillat, puerto plata and cibao.
https://www.diariolibre.com/medioam...a-por-irma-organismos-se-reunen-hoy-EC8073431
https://www.diariolibre.com/medioam...a-por-irma-organismos-se-reunen-hoy-EC8073431
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