hurricane season 2017

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MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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william webster said:
The waves present another north coast problem

I can think of several areas that will really suffer from 20-25 ft waves.
How about anything within the 60M rule ??

OUCH!!
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belief me,
by the comingweekend there is no 60 meter rule.
those anyways illegally taken public 60 meters will be defined/claimed completely new on sunday.
I live maybe 20 meters behind the 60 meters public beach rule, so tat's not even 100 yards from the Water.
very little elevation, our beach is climbing very smooth, not steep, a real runway for big water coming ashore.
we are up on the 2nd floor of the 2 floor buildings and if i would be that close to the water on the northshore i would not stay at home by the given Outlook. once the Storm surge gets predicted high enough to hit my house's windows, thats a good reason to take a couple days of vacay away from home.
Irma is below 17N and still diving, according to the forecast it will continue the dive for most of the Day.
what nobody dare's to think about is:
what happens if the Storm stays on Track and does not Dive, because the Ridge stays up for an other 24hrs?
inthe Models we trust, and they been very good so far, but there is of course the chance that the ridge stays up longer and Irma wander's straight over the Leewrad Islands to approach straight face on PRand/or DR from SE to NW, which is the worst nightmare.
from the Eastern Islands to PR/Hispaniola/Jamaica/Cuba,
we are waiting for a Turn.
Let it Turn, doesn't matter how close it comes to the Northshore, but let it Turn.

as far as powers go, Irma gained 5mphr max Winds since last night and looks this morning perfectly fine, well done.
it will stay that way and continue slow intensification til the interaction with Land will slow down/or downwind powers.

Mike
 
caribmike

caribmike

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Mike, if the current models / path prediction come true should I better get my son out of Bavaro and bring him to me to the capital? Checking the models there will be a lot of "red" over the East Coast.
 
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DR Solar

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Since last night, the projected path has moved some 20 miles south putting it around 75 miles north of POP. History has shown these storms get knocked down while passing PR and DR. The last one a few years ago was a Cat 2 that downed to a TS. About the same distance north of POP. No big deal overall as I remember and slept through most of it.

So even with the PR and DR hampering, it could still be a Cat 2 if those same dynamics still work. I'm not sure that they do as much anymore. Since Sandy, storms around the world have changed for the worse.

We have a 20' coral cliff at our waters edge. House is another 20 higher and 60 meters back but our pool patios are much closer. But that can still put some breakers right to our doors. The force of the wind driving the rain and adding tons of ocean water could be enough to take out glass and swamp your home. I suspect that our pool will have a lot of sand in it, too bad since we just re-filled it after a major redo on it. Oh well.

Our guys are at work moving anything outside into secure areas. Nailing/screwing/securing anything else so it does not become airborne; even a garden hose can become a projectile that can keep flying and hitting while attached to a faucet.

The plywood should be here sometime today with a crew to get the sliders and windows on our north and east sides shuttered in the next couple of days. Another crew will be here tomorrow to take down the solar panels.

Doing a little last minute shopping, filling LPG and gasoline tanks and other needed misc. items.... our list keeps getting longer and longer.

Nice to stay busy?
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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caribmike said:
Mike, if the current models / path prediction come true should I better get my son out of Bavaro and bring him to me to the capital? Checking the models there will be a lot of "red" over the East Coast.
Click to expand...

there are high possibilities that it will get very rough,
but as long as living in a real House(not a wooden Hut) and not doing stu stuff like walking outside taking pictures etc, so long we will be perfectly fine here on the southern tip of the East.
even if we get TS Force winds together with the full rainload, as long as people stay inside a concrete house, so long it will be just a less comfy day on Thursday and depending how close/far/positioning of the Tail we may have a rainy/cloudy/partly windy Friday, that's all.
sure our Beaches will get a new Look, but as long as people stay at home, so long nobody should get hurt in this Area.
isolated areas like my own here in Cabeza de Toro may be without power, as we are the last ones who get damages to the miles of powerlines down here fixed, but thats part of living secluded in this piece of Paradise.
if you want your son to travel to the Capital, do that today, because tomorrow and afterwards you have to count on chaotic conditions for the Buslines when people try to move Last Minute.
Let it Turn.

Mike
 
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CaptnGlenn

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What little that is left of Bavaro Beach could be under water.  My condo is a couple of blocks, (about 600 meters) from the high water line... safe for now, but the way things have been going the past few years, I might have beach front property in 10 or 20 years. While I say that with a touch of humor, it's not funny AT ALL.  I don't think the beach that has eroded will come back.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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thats right, the eroded beaches always come back only by part, never completely, the same problem around the Globe.
as for knocking down Irma, I fully agree on that one.
coming too close and prior to DR wandering over the NE'ern Islands and passing right at the doorstep of Purto Rico with it's high Mountains, is as bad as it sounds a good thing for DR.
just a few hours after such interruptions the Storm will rigt away a Cyclones biggest nightmare, the Hoghest and Storm Azz kicking Mountains of Hispaniola.
we just all have to be ready to be at a place which withstands TS Force winds easily, specially along the Northshores from Samana to haiti, where such could pass for quiet a lengthy time.
sure it would be appreciated that Irma stays on the high forward speed, but touching Land on PR and DR most likely will slow dow the Storm and tho add to the shutload.
to take down the Solar Panels is by now def the way to go, as the powers to be awaited to receive grow by the hour now.

incredible to think about what is so close, while watching the calmest Ocean ever, no wind, no waves, picture perfect Beach Fun Conditions and perfect flat calm Sea Offshore Fishing Conditions.
We watch and stay safe.
what ever your safety Plan is, you should do it Today and no later than tomorrow, as on Wednesday the usual last minute masses will bring a mess due themselfs

Mike
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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the SAL Map shows nicely the full conditions onour Highway,
including the Disturbance running SE of Irma on it's way to become Storm 12 later this week.
and it shows very clear the Size of Irma compared to the small Dots which are PR, DR etc.
just in case somebody is unsure if it is really necessary to get prepared for Thursday.


Mike

splitEW.jpg
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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an other point, not that it matters for the DR, but we also have american friends here who live over their in the land of Storms.
with the strong Rigde off the Mainland the US Eastshores are at this moment out of any danger.
by actual conditions(keep in mind how such can change on such long range outlook) Irma is a Runner for the Gulf of Mexico,
wandering w-wwnw along the Cuban Northshores the Florida Straight into the Gulf.
it is completely uncertain how the interaction with all those landmasses and high mountains of the Greater Antilles will effect the Storm's Powers, but traditionally they survive that walk as a still well working machine, powered down to just intensify very fast again over the hottest waters of the Gulf.
CNN and Fox-News sure will have plenty of Food to feed on for an other full week at least.

Mike
 
caribmike

caribmike

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Hopefully not again Houston...

Well, son on its way to the capital. Ex-wife and the Malinois staying put. As the ex says mucho ladrones cuando hay un ciclon.:)
 
M

Milo Mitt

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Friends, I have a bad feeling regarding this hurricane. I am hoping for the best outcome for all the people living in its projected path. Everyone that has the possibility to prepare should do it extensively and hopefully the impact can be somewhat less.

Stay safe and take care of each other
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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windeguy said:
145912_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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every Rock East of PR will receive Hurricane Fore Winds.
the NE Tip of PR will be close enough to have the Wall in Eyeshot.
Samana is too close to bet on staying safe.
here at the Cape we will have a wild ride.
as for the Northshores, I have no estimates, but the Storm Surge will be immense, could write new all time records.
Tropical Storm Force winds along the whole coastline guaranteed, Hurricane Force a possibility.
Let it Turn!!!

Mike
 
Cdn_Gringo

Cdn_Gringo

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I keep looking for some good news but those tidbits are few and far between. High tide for Sosua on Thursday morning is 09:13. You can expect the same from Puerto Plata to Cabrera and beyond. Storm surge and waves will have maximum effect as the storm centre passes by.
 
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