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hurricane season 2017
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Eq- 8.0 in Mexico yesterday.
link: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000ahv0#executive
And don't forget about Hurricane Katia hanging around the neighborhood there.
aranoid:
link: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000ahv0#executive
And don't forget about Hurricane Katia hanging around the neighborhood there.
aranoid:
Irma shows a weird white band around the Core.
this coud be the try to build a new eyewall waaay wider than the actual.
let it try that and fail to collapse the construction.
to get such wide eyewall up and running is difficult for such machine running in touch with land on all sides.
if the Storm achieves to run such well wider eyewall, the Windpowers would go way down,
but the extend of Storm Surge would significantly widen, as was seen on Tropical Storm Sandy.
the NHC is still notissuing hours tracking updates, so we have to wait the 3hrs cycles for updates on that end.
Mike
this coud be the try to build a new eyewall waaay wider than the actual.
let it try that and fail to collapse the construction.
to get such wide eyewall up and running is difficult for such machine running in touch with land on all sides.
if the Storm achieves to run such well wider eyewall, the Windpowers would go way down,
but the extend of Storm Surge would significantly widen, as was seen on Tropical Storm Sandy.
the NHC is still notissuing hours tracking updates, so we have to wait the 3hrs cycles for updates on that end.
Mike
Eq- 8.0 in Mexico yesterday.
link: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us2000ahv0#executive
And don't forget about Hurricane Katia hanging around the neighborhood there.
Katia is hanging almost stationary in the SW corner of the Gulf.
steering currents are weak there and will over the days slowly push it ashore of Mexico.
Mike
HURRICANE JOSE.
Just when I thought I could stop and enjoy a big, fat Cohiba - my wife is now going a bit hysterical of Hurricane Jose. Apparently it's in the exact same track as Irma. It's massive now a CAT 4 hurricane and picking up speed abut 600 miles from the Leeward Islands.
Does anyone have any knowledge of the direction of this hurricane relative to Irma?
Just when I thought I could stop and enjoy a big, fat Cohiba - my wife is now going a bit hysterical of Hurricane Jose. Apparently it's in the exact same track as Irma. It's massive now a CAT 4 hurricane and picking up speed abut 600 miles from the Leeward Islands.
Does anyone have any knowledge of the direction of this hurricane relative to Irma?
apparently you and the wife are looking Now on the wrong forecasts.
the last official Forecast of Jose issued by the NHC been 2 1/2hrs ago.
nothing to be hysteric about anything Now, because there is zero news since then.
Jose been bornat a very different location compared to Irma
and Jose is running a very different Track compared to Irma.
by the last forecast itwa in no way to be brought anywhere near the DR.
search for a new Forecast source.
or just look on the only existing reliable one, which is the NHC in Florida.
we just hope they don't stop to be online this weekend, no repeat of Andrew, who walked right over them.
Mike
the last official Forecast of Jose issued by the NHC been 2 1/2hrs ago.
nothing to be hysteric about anything Now, because there is zero news since then.
Jose been bornat a very different location compared to Irma
and Jose is running a very different Track compared to Irma.
by the last forecast itwa in no way to be brought anywhere near the DR.
search for a new Forecast source.
or just look on the only existing reliable one, which is the NHC in Florida.
we just hope they don't stop to be online this weekend, no repeat of Andrew, who walked right over them.
Mike
We have sent invitations to several of our friends in Fl. If they need a place to stay we will accommodate. Unfortunately, by time we figured out our situation it would be difficult to get a flight to POP. We also did this to some friends in Houston. No one has taken us up on our offer but they really appreciated the offer. Our doors are open and the lights on without Edenorte.
Our workers have been more then workers. They had the drive and my wife and I amazed at how much done. Our housekeeper spent extra time cleaning since our carpets had been rolled up and out of her way. 6 truck loads of tree debris hauled away so the property looks like nothing happened. Flat roof cleaned, a couple of gutters repaired (a water source for us) and a few other things done. They even climbed up into trees to drag out caught limbs that could be a problem later.
I'm soo proud of my team and grateful. As WW said in an earlier post, take care of them and they do take care of you. Pay it forward.
Perhaps all this hard work has motivated one of our younger workers? He asked for a loan so that he could attend night classes at the university. We have done this several times with no problems and our original lead man ... he makes a far better living not cleaning our pool. We jumped at the chance to "loan" this young man the money interest free and showed our positive delight that he is entering University level classes.
The Atlantic is flat. Nice breezes but warm. No power but our old gen. just keeps of chugging away.
Best wishes and hope that YOU had a good day too.
Our workers have been more then workers. They had the drive and my wife and I amazed at how much done. Our housekeeper spent extra time cleaning since our carpets had been rolled up and out of her way. 6 truck loads of tree debris hauled away so the property looks like nothing happened. Flat roof cleaned, a couple of gutters repaired (a water source for us) and a few other things done. They even climbed up into trees to drag out caught limbs that could be a problem later.
I'm soo proud of my team and grateful. As WW said in an earlier post, take care of them and they do take care of you. Pay it forward.
Perhaps all this hard work has motivated one of our younger workers? He asked for a loan so that he could attend night classes at the university. We have done this several times with no problems and our original lead man ... he makes a far better living not cleaning our pool. We jumped at the chance to "loan" this young man the money interest free and showed our positive delight that he is entering University level classes.
The Atlantic is flat. Nice breezes but warm. No power but our old gen. just keeps of chugging away.
Best wishes and hope that YOU had a good day too.
Sunny... I'm just trying to convince my man to get a Driver's License !!!
He drove my car recently and was stopped....
The police wanted 1500 pesos... he coaxed them down to 500.
He's 34 yrs old and drives his moto everywhere...
ILLEGALLY!!!
Good for your young man...
He drove my car recently and was stopped....
The police wanted 1500 pesos... he coaxed them down to 500.
He's 34 yrs old and drives his moto everywhere...
ILLEGALLY!!!
Good for your young man...
National Hurricane Center
Click on the link right above, click on the red symbol for Jose and you have a page full of live links, especially Public Adv, the link to the public advisories that are updated every three hours.
Forget the gossip.
for his Moto he doesn't need a drivers license, just a insurance for 350.- pesos per year an dthe up to date license Plate.
the actual ones are those with a blueish color on the left site of the plate.
to drive your car, tats a different thingy of course.
Mike
Irma is updated.
it slow's down further on forward speed, down on just 10 Knots now.
Irma is drifting West towards the Cuban Northshores, which was already calculated in the prior tracking forecasts.
Irma is now slipping through below the SW'ern Edge of the High over the Storm.
by actually forecasted timing it will pass the SE Corner shortly before hitting Land in Cuba and use the open gap to wander along the westside of the High Northwards approaching Southern Florida straight on from the South.
windpowers stay the same so far, but that system is working on something, hence the slower forward speed, too.
Mike
it slow's down further on forward speed, down on just 10 Knots now.
Irma is drifting West towards the Cuban Northshores, which was already calculated in the prior tracking forecasts.
Irma is now slipping through below the SW'ern Edge of the High over the Storm.
by actually forecasted timing it will pass the SE Corner shortly before hitting Land in Cuba and use the open gap to wander along the westside of the High Northwards approaching Southern Florida straight on from the South.
windpowers stay the same so far, but that system is working on something, hence the slower forward speed, too.
Mike
Jose is also on the prior forecasted Tracking.
I can see Jose struggling soon.
it is entering high windshear and is closing in towards a dryer environment to it's NW,
that should stop any strengthening and even reduce the powers of this one.
Mike
I can see Jose struggling soon.
it is entering high windshear and is closing in towards a dryer environment to it's NW,
that should stop any strengthening and even reduce the powers of this one.
Mike
Since Hispanola is an island it doesn't actually have a continental shelf, the "shelf" surrounding an island is usually referred to as an insular shelf. The bathymetry and configuration of the ocean bottom varies greatly from the eastern most end of the island, the Punta Cana area, to that of the majority of the north coast.
The north coast generally has a narrow "shelf" and a VERY steep drop from the shoreline which means very deep water close to shore. Punta Cana has a wider "shelf" and a much more gradual slope from the shoreline producing relatively shallow depths close to shore.
If you follow the depth contours (lines indicating a specific depth and it's varying distance from shore) along the coast from the Punta Cana area north then west around and along the north coast, you can see that the ocean bottom off the coast of Punta Cana remains relatively shallow. The depth contours are a greater distance from the shoreline and spaced further apart. Along the north coast the depth contours are MUCH closer to the shoreline and MUCH closer to each other.
Just to give you an example. The 200 meter contour due east of Punta Cana is approximately ten nautical miles offshore. At the eastern most point of the island (Cabo Engano) it is approximately 20 nautical miles offshore. As you head northwest and then west along the northern coast, that same 200 meter contour gets closer and closer to shore, and at some points less than ONE MILE offshore. Sosua is a perfect example, I have been less than a mile off the beach in over 200 meters of water.
An even more extreme example would be the 1000 meter contour which is much further away from shore on the east coast. If you sailed due east from Punta Cana you would have to travel approximately 40 nautical miles to reach a depth of 1000 meters. Actually if you stay far enough south you could go straight across the Mona Passage to Puerto Rico without ever reaching a depth of 1000 meters (e.g., Punta Cana, DR to Mayaguez, P.R). However, along the north coast that same 1000 meter contour is very close to the shoreline, especially in the areas of Luperon, Sosua and Cabrera (about two nautical miles from shore). The slope along the north coast is EXTREMELY STEEP with some impressive drops. I've been 15 miles off the beach of Sosua in depths of over 4000 meters, whereas 15 miles due east of Punta Cana you would have an ocean depth of approximately just 200 meters.
So it helps contribute to a lower "surge" but the waves are usually higher and more powerful here in the north.
In these days of hurricanes and their effects, this made me smile..... just a little levity in these trying times.
zero changes on Irma this evening.
on 10 knots walking straight west towards Cuba, waitung to pass the coner of the Ridge and start to steam in northern directions.
Jose also on its predicted tracking.
it will come very very close to the northeasternmost Leewards.
Jose looks this evening perfectly healthy, a compact well fueled machine.
Irma is still a power house, but bothered and fleddered on many ends/points.
it struggles to hold/gain windspeeds and works on too many ends at the same time.
for late saturday i would Irma to be a weakening high scale Cat3 Cyclone.
as such it should hit the southern shores of Fl on sunday morning.
as this Storm will take FL in a Turn, i would expect the now strong storm surge from the right side of the Storm to reach all southern Floridian shores, on the Gulf, the Fl Straight and the Atlantic side.
hard to imagine what wave powers may roll over the Keys, and they will roll Over them.
there's just to hope to see in the morning that the tracking had some error and Irma goes just straight up missing any mainland.
Mike
on 10 knots walking straight west towards Cuba, waitung to pass the coner of the Ridge and start to steam in northern directions.
Jose also on its predicted tracking.
it will come very very close to the northeasternmost Leewards.
Jose looks this evening perfectly healthy, a compact well fueled machine.
Irma is still a power house, but bothered and fleddered on many ends/points.
it struggles to hold/gain windspeeds and works on too many ends at the same time.
for late saturday i would Irma to be a weakening high scale Cat3 Cyclone.
as such it should hit the southern shores of Fl on sunday morning.
as this Storm will take FL in a Turn, i would expect the now strong storm surge from the right side of the Storm to reach all southern Floridian shores, on the Gulf, the Fl Straight and the Atlantic side.
hard to imagine what wave powers may roll over the Keys, and they will roll Over them.
there's just to hope to see in the morning that the tracking had some error and Irma goes just straight up missing any mainland.
Mike
Irma's inner construction is at the moment completely nuked.
on the Sat view you can look through to the bottom.
looks like the SW Wall collapsed and a new well further out SW Wall been built,
but most of the rest of the eye is still onthe old wall of the small eye.
it will take da Biach many long hours to fix something
and during all those hours it is bouncing on Cuban Terrain with it's same SW.
hit da Biach in the face a thousnad time tonight and let it's inner structure collapse completely.
there is a real chance to get those windpowers significantly down.
every 5 knots less upon FL arrival are safers, life safers.
how the Storm reacts on quick dropping powers with a maybe wider eye coming up as replacement tomorrow is a completely different story. such would keep the powers below Cat4 for a landfall and they would decrease much quicker once over land to have a significantly weaker Storm once over Southern Florida wandering Landinwards.
but such often widens for many hours the TS Force Field which pushes the Storm Surge ahead.
such wider field would bring a higher/stronger Stom Surge than expected.
over all it would be a positive happening, as the windforce is the biggest danger for a State that is not capable to evacuate everybody from the Mainland, there sure will be many people left behind trying to sit it out, so those would receive just a portion of prior predicted powers.
it would be way harder for the southern Beaches and specially the Keys, but the 3 southern coastlines of FL and specially the Keys sure will be 100% completely evacuated, nobody should take the chance to survive there unharmed.
lets see how this one looks on the morning or mid day updates tomorrow,
maybe there's the winds of change for Irma.
Mike
on the Sat view you can look through to the bottom.
looks like the SW Wall collapsed and a new well further out SW Wall been built,
but most of the rest of the eye is still onthe old wall of the small eye.
it will take da Biach many long hours to fix something
and during all those hours it is bouncing on Cuban Terrain with it's same SW.
hit da Biach in the face a thousnad time tonight and let it's inner structure collapse completely.
there is a real chance to get those windpowers significantly down.
every 5 knots less upon FL arrival are safers, life safers.
how the Storm reacts on quick dropping powers with a maybe wider eye coming up as replacement tomorrow is a completely different story. such would keep the powers below Cat4 for a landfall and they would decrease much quicker once over land to have a significantly weaker Storm once over Southern Florida wandering Landinwards.
but such often widens for many hours the TS Force Field which pushes the Storm Surge ahead.
such wider field would bring a higher/stronger Stom Surge than expected.
over all it would be a positive happening, as the windforce is the biggest danger for a State that is not capable to evacuate everybody from the Mainland, there sure will be many people left behind trying to sit it out, so those would receive just a portion of prior predicted powers.
it would be way harder for the southern Beaches and specially the Keys, but the 3 southern coastlines of FL and specially the Keys sure will be 100% completely evacuated, nobody should take the chance to survive there unharmed.
lets see how this one looks on the morning or mid day updates tomorrow,
maybe there's the winds of change for Irma.
Mike
the formerly perfect constant outflow on the tops of the northern quadrant is not running smooth.
this Storm get's actually Azzkicked on it's SW due the touch of Cuban Soil.
Mike
this Storm get's actually Azzkicked on it's SW due the touch of Cuban Soil.
Mike
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