hurricane season 2017

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william webster

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I don't know if we can go back & look but as I saw the NOAA graphics when Irma passed Samana
it was broken up... large eye

It continued like that most of the time passing RD.

I credit the weaker winds and impact with
1/ the distance offshore
2/ eyewall reconstruction

Got any thoughts on that ??
 

MikeFisher

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Mike
I don't know if we can go back & look but as I saw the NOAA graphics when Irma passed Samana
it was broken up... large eye

It continued like that most of the time passing RD.

I credit the weaker winds and impact with
1/ the distance offshore
2/ eyewall reconstruction

Got any thoughts on that ??

it was bothered/opened due the harsh touch with our Landmass and Mountains.
that reduced the widespread of strong winds to be send out towards the SW and S down to a fraction of what they had when the Storm was completely unbothered over Water.
arrivaing over the Florida Keys the Stor will be over hottest waters and far away from any bothering high Mountain Ranges.
the FL Straight is open hunting grounds, the Prairie for a Storm.
on our side it got hard hit first by PR as usual, did not have the grounds to recover fully and then got even much harder hit by our own home soil.
Cuba gave it so far the hadest knocks of all, as it still was also bothered by the different circulation interruptions due the many smaller Landmasses on the way towards Cuba/along the Bahamas and the Cuban North.
despite such bothring conditions it survived completely healthy as a Major Hurricane,
ready to use every single hour over the coming warm waters to gain what ever such Storm can gain on windpowers.
hence it would be very very helpful to see it running on higher forward speed again,
every mile dropped on forward speed will rise the powers significantly and make the storm surge more powerful.
I don't know about South Florida's natural tides,
but I would add a 20ft Storm Surge on top of what they would have without Irma.
it's just to hope they are not on any natural high tides of the year or such, it will be tough on lowest natural tides already.

Mike
 

william webster

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Tides don't matter Mike...

The keys are about 5 feet above sea level according to last night's news
low land to say the least.....

A swell then a wave.... at high or low tide will be badf
 

william webster

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Florida Keys

The Florida Keys are all part of Monroe County, with the county seat being Key West. Windley Key holds the record of being the highest elevation in the Florida Keys - at 18 feet above sea level!

Florida — especially South Florida — is very flat and very low, and in places like Miami Beach and Key West, buildings are just 3 feet above sea level. Scientists now say there may be a 3-foot rise in the world's oceans by the end of the century.Nov 12, 2013
 

RV429

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Our thoughts turn to the west coast of Florida and the Keyes as the storm surge will devastate!
 

william webster

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Not a snowball's chance in hell for the Keys and much of So FLA

Every official is warning....
many have listened but I saw too much activity behind Anderson Cooper last night to say that it is empty.

still some hangers on..... they'll be hanging on alright !!!!
 

MikeFisher

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who stays on the keys may not get hurt by windpowers,
but DROWN under Water as the former "Land" will be Atlantis styled for a while longer than humans can hold their breath.
a Governor with a sense for his People would send the Troops in Helis, handcuff any resisting person and throw them in a Jail somewhere in a neighbour State's Prison for their own safety ti it's over, so they can not run back before it's gone.

Mike
 

RV429

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One of the commentators said it best, "only the very stupid or worse are staying in Evac Zones"
 

windeguy

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who stays on the keys may not get hurt by windpowers,
but DROWN under Water as the former "Land" will be Atlantis styled for a while longer than humans can hold their breath.
a Governor with a sense for his People would send the Troops in Helis, handcuff any resisting person and throw them in a Jail somewhere in a neighbour State's Prison for their own safety ti it's over, so they can not run back before it's gone.

Mike

I am one of those people who would allow stupid people to thin the gene pool. Their decision, their doom.
 

ROLLOUT

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I may have to eat my words from yesterday. Looks like the biatch is shifting westward. Maybe time to put the boat inna garage.
 

MikeFisher

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One of the commentators said it best, "only the very stupid or worse are staying in Evac Zones"

that is completely agreed on.
every population around the globe has it's high percentage of stu's.
hence the governments are obliged to take the right decisions for their undereducated people to stay alife and safe.
if necessary break every constitutional right of theirs and force them out of home, but keep 'em safe.
what is it worth to use gunpower on foreign soil to keep the ones at home safe,
when you do not act accordingly to keep 'em safe from dangers present back home?
time to hit the road again, should be back in 90 or so.
keep your eyes on the hourly updates of the NHC.
they have constant updates form the Hunters,
what they show every hour is a "Live coverage" of the Storm's movement.
those shown tracks for the next hours never been as precise as they are on Irma, sadly.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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I may have to eat my words from yesterday. Looks like the biatch is shifting westward. Maybe time to put the boat inna garage.

i sorrily have to tell you that any boat survives much more powers bouncing on the water than any ever in Florida built garage could resist. take da boat, fuel up and ride over to Louisiana shores.

Mike
 

AlterEgo

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Jan 9, 2009
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One of the commentators said it best, "only the very stupid or worse are staying in Evac Zones"

A very close friend of mine is staying with her husband and grown [paralyzed] son. She says because their house was built strongly after Hurricane Andrew, and she has storm shutters to withstand 150 mph wind, they'll be okay. What about flooding????????? So many people just won't leave.
 

cavok

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who stays on the keys may not get hurt by windpowers,
but DROWN under Water as the former "Land" will be Atlantis styled for a while longer than humans can hold their breath.
a Governor with a sense for his People would send the Troops in Helis, handcuff any resisting person and throw them in a Jail somewhere in a neighbour State's Prison for their own safety ti it's over, so they can not run back before it's gone.

Mike

From a logical standpoint that makes sense, but from a practical, logistical one it is just impossible to arrest everyone that refuses to evacuate. Just ties up too many resources and manpower that are more needed for those who are evacuating.

Many states have enacted laws that make people who have refused to evacuate and then later need to be rescued are civilally liable for the costs of rescue. So, if they want to risk their own lives - that's their problem.
 

william webster

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Mike... The USA is different...
they will not , cannot think like your statement...

Citizens have 'RIGHTS' and will fight to protect them.

Certainly a different attitude but one they hold dear and near.

No removal in handcuffs
 
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that's the completely wrong way to manage things.
a Rescuer, may it be a Firefighter, Medical person etc etc etc, will always go and help people in need/danger, despite the dangers for the own life.
the authorities have to protect their People, Residents in hot zones AND the rescuers on neighboured grounds,
by FORCING Evacuations of the hot areas.
you do not force rescue teams not to go to help.
you have to force your stu's to get out of there and stay safe for their own good.
that safe's the population of such areas AND it safes Rescuers.

Mike

In my opinion it's the absolute correct way to manage rescue resources during the storm and post As the Chief of the Miami Beach rescue advised (He moved all but one of his units to the mainland) "what good will we be if all our equipment is destroyed attempting to save people who we advised and offered help to evacuate" If they are that dumb......
 

MikeFisher

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From a logical standpoint that makes sense, but from a practical, logistical one it is just impossible to arrest everyone that refuses to evacuate. Just ties up too many resources and manpower that are more needed for those who are evacuating.

Many states have enacted laws that make people who have refused to evacuate and then later need to be rescued are civilally liable for the costs of rescue. So, if they want to risk their own lives - that's their problem.

makes sense of course.
costs for such things are immense,
but 1st world countries blow zillions per year for crap, they could spend it on such without a problem.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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back home now.
4PM update, zero changes on Irma, but Data of already measured Windspeeds over the Keys.
Imagine, those shown number here are 12-14hrs PRIOR to the Eye arriving,
those are over 200Km sent out weak distance bands.

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
400 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...400 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

Molasses Reef recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h)
with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). Marathon recently reported
sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 80.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


Mike
 
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