hurricane season 2017

[MikeFisher]

Midnight update on Irma.

til now the Storm still does not show intensification.
due the "Turn" from West to North the powers shift.
fromerly the N was the strong side, as always the Rigt side is the strong side.
on a N Heading the East of the Storm is the side blowing the hardest to feel.
but on only 6mphr forward speed the difference form the strongest E compared to the weakest W is only 12mphrs on max winds.
the winds shown in the forecasts/Advisories are always the max winds found on the storms strong side, which is now the East of Irma, the side towards the S-Florida Mainland when passing along the FL Gulf Coast northwards.
if the Storm would move still or again on the prior 10mphr higher forward speed, the felt winds wold be 130mphr on the East on the same strom structure/powers which show no just 120mphr max sustained winds.
let's hope it will not intensify significantly on the walk over the FL-Straight tonight/the next few hours
and arrive only on the actual around 120mphr winds.

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1200 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...1200 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA'S RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A National Ocean Service station in Molasses Reef, Florida, recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph
(100 km/h). Key West recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph
(67 km/h) with a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 81.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES

the Sat loop always shows 45-90 minutes delayed.

ike

 

[MikeFisher]

2PM, last update for tonight.
Irma is dropping pressure and intensifying
running still on only 5knots forward a 130mphr Cat4 windforce on a 931mb central pressure.
no changes on the forecasted tracking.

Mike

 

[bigbird]

Special thanks again to the OP who first posted the windy.com link.

At the bottom left click the "play" button to get windy's prediction of how the storm will travel. You can also click any location on the map and it will give you the direction and wind speed for that location.

 

[MikeFisher]

9AM Update Irma.
the lower Keys are in the Eye now.
...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS IN THE EYE OF IRMA...

A National Ocean Service station in Key West just measured sustained
winds of 71 mph (113 km/h) with a gust to 90 mph (144 km/h). The
Key West Weather Service Forecast Office recently reported a gust to
91 mph (146 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES


Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

a few words to U-Turn Jose.
that Turn is really on highest probabilities,
but til now harmless for us Islanders on Hispañola.
by tuesday it reaches a area over open Atlantic Waters, where it get's sandwiched between different ridges.
so the anyways usual NW/WNW Tracking in that area up there will continue by Jose to be pressured downwards on the Map, to the South. on that move it will point straight down to us, shlould be more or lessstraight north of the Mona Passage, but way over 1000 kilometers away.
due that turn it will be freed from the Sandwich position and wander with the regular steering currents westwards, which finally makes it a Full cirlce Turn for Jose, as the regular currents move it WWNW wards again towards the Ridge along the US Mainland, which again turns the Storm NE'wards again to the graveyard.
Jose should be on it's closest point to Hispañola on Thursday night about 800-1000 kilometers north of the Island.
that a look a week in advanc eon steerin, lots can happen,
but it looks like Jose is damned to run itself dead in a circle.
after the U-Turn it will soon loose the Major Hurricane strength.
how long it can stay a Hurricane at all then depends on how far E and N it will stay/wander/circle, as it is near coller waters and conditions there which knock down a Storm within a few days.
a 50 or 100 miles to the south and west conditions would be well fine to support to keep Hurricane Forces and wander around for quiet a long time before running out of fuels.
by now it does not look like Jose will affect any Lnadmasses.

MIke

 

[MikeFisher]

10AM on Irma moving away from the lower Key.

...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA'S EYE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A 93 mph (150 km/h) gust was recently measured at Carysfort Reef
Light near Key Largo. A National Ocean Service station in Key West
just reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/hr) and a gust to
89 mph (143 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 81.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

Mike

see the difference between left and right side of the storm on windpowers.
Key West reports only 67mphr smooth winds while on the Right near Key Largo
89mphr Forces are at work.
as Irma wanders along the Shores northwards all Florida will be on that Right Side of the Storm.

 

[MikeFisher]

while Hurricane Force winds are not sent out very far from the Core, they should reach only a few miles Landinwards along the Gulfshores, the TS-Force Winds are on the Right/East of Irma reaching out very far and could even touch the NW'ern Bahamas.
as Florida is just a flat Swamp of nothing, TS-Force winds should be received at every square inch of the whole Peninsula.
where the fock do all those Gators of the Glades go to find shelter?
and worse, but a typical Floridian problem year around on highest Tides:
to where does all the sewer shut go??
Hand Sanitizer will not be enough to be safe of bacterias in Florida for a while after Irma is long History.
here in PC the Beach Dogs been given Shelter by great people in their homes,
who takes care about the Gators in Fl?

Mike

 

[cobraboy]

where the fock do all those Gators of the Glades go to find shelter?
Mike

You've heard of sharknados?

Meet a gatorcane...

 

[MikeFisher]

You've heard of sharknados?

Meet a gatorcane...

both are good eating, worth to collect.

Mike

 

[caribmike]

[video]https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/t50.2886-16/21682932_294212987724847_147686449087512576_n.mp4[/video]

Shouldn't be there some beach or are these build that close to the ocean?

 

[cobraboy]

FL is going to need some of those redneck hillbillies with boats and chainsaws that are in Houston...

 

[caribmike]

Jose has a strange path prediction... hope it does not come back.

@Mike: Any early opinion about the new depression with 60% probability over the next 5 days? How is the runway?

 

[windeguy]

Jose would have danced well with Jeanne.

 

[MikeFisher]

Jose has a strange path prediction... hope it does not come back.

@Mike: Any early opinion about the new depression with 60% probability over the next 5 days? How is the runway?

the new Disturbance is a NW Runner for the Graveyeard, doesn't matter it develops por not.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

[video]https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/t50.2886-16/21682932_294212987724847_147686449087512576_n.mp4[/video]

Shouldn't be there some beach or are these build that close to the ocean?

Yikes.
now that's what i name a real Ocean Front, without any tricky Realtor's false descriptions.
just plane and simple Ocean Front.
anybody know on what "grounds" those high rises stand? solid Rock or is it something that could be washed out under there?

Mike

 

[caribmike]

Yikes.
now that's what i name a real Ocean Front, without any tricky Realtor's false descriptions.
just plane and simple Ocean Front.
anybody know on what "grounds" those high rises stand? solid Rock or is it something that could be washed out under there?

Mike

The video is from CNN:
"Matthew Spuler took this video from a high-rise overlooking Biscayne Bay in Miami."

Anybody familiar with the area?

 

[MikeFisher]

11AM Irma.
the Storm is rising pressure on 8knots forward.
I would guess that's beacuse the Rigt/Eastern Hurricane Force is over land with a significant portion of it's size.
that's bad, because it would mean from there on the whole Westshore get's the full right Core powers over Land from South to North all along the way.
this Irma should make it up til the Central FL Westcoast as a Major Hurricane and will still be a Hurricane Cat1+ when reaching around the Penhandle.
very good friends of mine have a beauiful newly renovated home at Clearwater, that looks bad.
they are themselfs of course out of there, they are at the Massachussets Mountain Residence playing with the Bears in the Backyard til this is over.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

The video is from CNN:
"Matthew Spuler took this video from a high-rise overlooking Biscayne Bay in Miami."

Anybody familiar with the area?

my last FL visit been 20 years ago or so.
if i remember correctly that is Key Biscane of Miami. they have several Islands/Keys there off Miami.
like Miami Beach, Fisherman's Island, Key Biscane.
but don't shoot me if incorrect, after 2 decades my geografical memories of the area fade, lol.
I can stll describe every Rock i ever turned anywhere in Wyoming, tho, lol.

Mike

 

[windeguy]

The video is from CNN:
"Matthew Spuler took this video from a high-rise overlooking Biscayne Bay in Miami."

Anybody familiar with the area?

I unfortunately get to go to Florida frequently. Last time was in Lauderdale By The Sea. Never stayed in Biscayne Bay which is further south and not open directly to the ocean like where I was last time.

 

[MikeFisher]

The video is from CNN:
"Matthew Spuler took this video from a high-rise overlooking Biscayne Bay in Miami."

Anybody familiar with the area?

my last FL visit been 20 years ago or so.
if i remember correctly that is Key Biscane of Miami. they have several Islands/Keys there off Miami.
like Miami Beach, Fisherman's Island, Key Biscane.
but don't shoot me if incorrect, after 2 decades my geografical memories of the area fade, lol.
I can stll describe every Rock i ever turned anywhere in Wyoming, tho, lol.

Mike