Recession: is the worst over?

MrMike

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Mar 2, 2003
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I don't know but from where I'm standing, it seems the worst of the recession seems to be over, the damage done and there are some tiny sparks of economic life reappearing here and there.

I don't have any statistics or examples, just a general feeling, and of course my international clients seem willing to pay for services rendered again whereas everyone I worked for fell into arrears or disappeared or both during 2009.

Is anyone experiencing the same?
 

Bronxboy

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Jul 11, 2007
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I don't know but from where I'm standing, it seems the worst of the recession seems to be over, the damage done and there are some tiny sparks of economic life reappearing here and there.

I don't have any statistics or examples, just a general feeling, and of course my international clients seem willing to pay for services rendered again whereas everyone I worked for fell into arrears or disappeared or both during 2009.

Is anyone experiencing the same?

I have tons of friends in NY that have been out of work for more than a year.

9.7% unemployment rate in NY. You bet the recession is still here!!!!
 

Mocamike

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Nov 18, 2006
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Not in South Florida, unfortunately.

Here in my other residence in South Florida it continues to be quite bad. The foreclosed homes still are dragging down the real estate market and unemployment is still high. The unreported under-employment is rampant with many former white collar exec types working in low end jobs just to try to pay the bills. Article in the paper today noted the recovery would take until 2030! The DR economy, well, after about twenty years of living there, I still don't really have a handle on it.
 

cobraboy

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Jul 24, 2004
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It's not over.

The next wave will be foreclosures on Commercial Properties. It's just beginning.

I was shocked at the number of empty new strip centers I saw in FL last week: Tampa, Orlando, WPB, FLL and Miami.

I was shocked to see virtually every high rise with spaces up to 20,000sf available.
 

MrMike

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Interesting perspectives. My father in law just got back to Santiago after 3 years in New York, and he teared up just seeing the deterioration in the country that the last 3 years has brought, he says that however bad things are here, they are likely worse in NY, with unemployment continuing to rise.

But I am not talking about a return to former boom-times or real estate regaining its inflated value, or easy money falling from the sky.

What I am talking about is people being more realistic in their expectations and buckling down to the hard work of building the world economy back up to a reasonable level again, and being able to pay their basic bills and live within their means.
 

Bronxboy

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Jul 11, 2007
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Interesting perspectives. My father in law just got back to Santiago after 3 years in New York, and he teared up just seeing the deterioration in the country that the last 3 years has brought, he says that however bad things are here, they are likely worse in NY, with unemployment continuing to rise.

But I am not talking about a return to former boom-times or real estate regaining its inflated value, or easy money falling from the sky.

What I am talking about is people being more realistic in their expectations and buckling down to the hard work of building the world economy back up to a reasonable level again, and being able to pay their basic bills and live within their means.

In summary, I think we are now spending our REAL income as oppose to years ago where our banks accounts and 401k plans were inflated.

8 out of 10 New Yorkers are now living paycheck to paycheck.
 

Mocamike

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Nov 18, 2006
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'Fraid not in S. Florida.

What I am talking about is people being more realistic in their expectations and buckling down to the hard work of building the world economy back up to a reasonable level again, and being able to pay their basic bills and live within their means.

I still notice that everyone around where I live in Florida still continues to live a lifestyle inconsistent with their incomes, even while complaining about the economy. I believe that it will get worse before it gets better and that maybe a few more years of this poor economy will pass before lifestyles may change. Ditto in Santiago.
 

Bronxboy

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I still notice that everyone around where I live in Florida still continues to live a lifestyle inconsistent with their incomes, even while complaining about the economy.

This is because they are living on pure credit cards!!!!!!!!!

I think this is going to be the next big crunch.

Lawyers are making a killing with bankruptcy cases.
 
May 29, 2006
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There is some light at the end of the tunnel now for people in bad credit card debt. There are so many defaults, the credit card companies are letting people settle for about half what they owe then getting half the remaining balance back from the government as an incentive to make deals.

They have also made it so if you miss a payment and your APR goes up to 29%, they have to lower to your prior rate if you make the six months payment on time. The credit card companies are not doling out credit lines like they used to though and they are coming up with new fees. They even have a fee if you do not have a minimum balance and you don't use your card.

But telling people in US not to go overboard on credit is like telling them that donuts and burgers are bad for their health. Haven't seen any McDonald's close lately...
 

RonS

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Oct 18, 2004
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What is remarkable to me is how the DR seems to have fared relatively well during this recession. Does anyone know if tourism in the DR declined commensurate with the economic decline in the US and/or how the decrease in remittances has affected the DR economy?
 

Lambada

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I don't know but from where I'm standing, it seems the worst of the recession seems to be over, the damage done and there are some tiny sparks of economic life reappearing here and there.

Do you mean worldwide or the DR?

Certainly as far as my country of origin is concerned (UK) it doesn't look like it's over in practice, even if by technical definition the country might be out of recession at long last. Lots of debate in UK about whether this is a double dip or W recession and also about whether government will ease back on Quantitative Easing
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2010 and 2011

But..........when I hear that there is evidence of widespread delays in HM Revenue & Customs issuing refund cheques already agreed and in settling routine claims for tax repayments, & it is thought that it might be a deliberate policy (presumably because the Treasury is skint), then I know something is amiss..........

Taxman sits on millions in refunds
 

AlterEgo

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Because DR is a bargain destination, I think their tourism held up better than more expensive destinations - people may have come to DR "instead".

Things are terrible in Southern NJ, and the casinos in Atlantic City are in bad shape. Rumors are that one or more may close [the one my husband works at is on the short list]. I see fewer people at the malls actually shopping, half-empty restaurants. While construction has been 'off' for a long time, it's taken until now for my son-in-law to get laid-off because his boss does mostly commercial work - lots of schools - and the State of NJ is broke so I guess repairs etc. will be on the back burner

On the flip side, I just got back from 3 days in NY - the Catskill region and around Albany. I was blown away by the waits at two restaurants we went to - we wondered if things were that much better there than elsewhere!
 

dv8

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Sep 27, 2006
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What is remarkable to me is how the DR seems to have fared relatively well during this recession. Does anyone know if tourism in the DR declined commensurate with the economic decline in the US and/or how the decrease in remittances has affected the DR economy?

apparently the number of tourists has been on a rise the last few months. there was an article on that in hoy economy section:
Flujo tur?stico sube por sexto mes consecutivo - Hoy Digital
 

RacerX

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Nov 22, 2009
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I see the current situation as a plateau. The credit card debt issue could cause the US to re-enter a recession. Situations in many areas are still not good. We just returned from Atlantic City and it indeed was very slow. I attributed to being the slow time of year but others have said it is suffering much worse than because of the season.

The Albany, NY area is supported greatly by being the Capital of New York and has many state jobs there. Just to the west, Schenectady (home of General Electric, one of the worlds largest "real companies"), Scotia, and Amsterdam look more like the economically destroyed areas around Detroit.

I am cautiously optimistic, but I expect that bad things are yet to come.

I know this area well, so I can tell you nothing is moving in Albany. I use to live in Schenectady when I graduated from college in 1996. The only thing holding Albany together are those state jobs. Otherwise it d be just like points west('Cuse, and Buffalo). There are internal problems with Scotia, Amsterdam that make them worse than Detroit. These cities have an insular way of thinking and being managed that you pretty say they deserve what they get.
Downstate, you saw much in the Catskill restaurants because you were there on the weekends when NYC-ers took a cheap break and drove their Subarus, Volvos, Saabs and hybrid Toyotas there looking to antique and pass the day. If you were there on a Thursday you d see a difference.
In NYC, I think the people who were doing bad were ALWAYS doing bad, and those who are doing good, were ALWAYS doing good. I ll the check to check notion but NYC is more insulated than other cities because of the large degree of self sufficiency and high talent pool it has.
In Miami, when I lived there the US Bankruptcy Court was the busiest in the SE US(before Katrina ruined NO, and the economic disaster).
In the DR, being heavily tourism based it depends on who you know to determine if the recession is over. I have a friend who lost her job at a company that makes electrical conduits and coaxial cables because of the drop off in demand worldwide. Her son lost his job at the duty-free shop at Santiago Int'l Airport. The airfares(from NYC) arent particularly lower in my opinion, well maybe they are but the airport taxes dont seem to go down do they?
I dont know if it will take til 2030 to rebound itself but I think it will go on for about another 3 years. Cobra is right(for once) that once the commercial RE hits the fan, the doodoo will require another bailout, because many banks have more wrapped into that that they did in Residential RE.
And I do think that alot of the people are credit carding their affluence here and there. That may lead others to presume that they are wealthy versus just high on a large credit balance.
 

Chip

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Jul 25, 2007
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Any postive news is good news.

At least in the commercial and residential sectors it will probably be a couple years or more before it starts to recover.

Sure the US government threw billions of dollars at the banks but apparently didn't force them to lend money - which is the cause of the current problem in the construction area. Then again from the banks point of view why should they lend money for commercial or residentail construction when you can buy homes and commercial buildings at less than the current cost to build them.

All in all throwing money at the banks wasn't such a good solution. To keep this DR related, we are in the dregs here as well - as when people are hurting stateside they don't vacation here as much and aren't interested in building homes here.
 

AlterEgo

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All in all throwing money at the banks wasn't such a good solution. To keep this DR related, we are in the dregs here as well - as when people are hurting stateside they don't vacation here as much and aren't interested in building homes here.

You're right Chip. And let's not forget that the monthly 'envios' to family in DR probably have been scaled back (or stopped) in some cases.... people can't send what they don't have.

I thought I saw a little positive blip on the recession radar, but my optimism has floundered this past month. I don't think things are going to improve this year at all. I hope I'm wrong.

AE
 

RonS

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Oct 18, 2004
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So, if tourism in the DR is up, in one of the worst, if not the worst, recession the US has experienced since the Depression, how is this happening, how has the DR been able to experience an increase in tourism income?
 

woofsback

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Dec 20, 2009
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those who were going to go to australia or china
or any of the thousand dollar trips
are now opting for the 5-6 hundred dollar trips
they still get thier vacation but at a price they can afford

add in the regulars,
the friends of a friends who heard thier friends had a great time and decided to try and you will get a slight increase

it's definitely good for the dr. :)
 

RonS

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Oct 18, 2004
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'Booming' is not something that is happening in the economic environment today. Holding steady and/or doing slighter better than this quarter last year is major. My question is: how has the DR been able to weather this storm, if, indeed, that is the reality? And, to answer the OP's question, is the worst over?