Recession: is the worst over?

[cobraboy]

MotoCaribe had a better '09-'10 season than the '08-'09 season.

From what our U.S. customers tell us, there is some pent-up demand coming out. Folks totally cooled last year...remember it was a big election year and politicians were trying to scare up votes...and frankly got bored and had to go somewhere.

Sort of cabin fever.

 

[Expat13]

its not news unless its bad news

Sometimes its just the lack of outside information that helps the smaller economies like the DR.

Now dont get me wrong, this crisis has been extremely painful, some areas and countries more than others.Unemployment numbers, very sad to see.
Many have lost jobs and others reduced earnings. What makes it worse, and delays the actual economic recovery, is the constant reporting of the negative news. "The global financial system has failed and is going to get far worse before it gets better." This is not my statement and nor do I agree with it-but you hear it all the time. News has to be negative or it isnt news anymore.
The unfortunate cause and effect of this is; those who have solid stable jobs, incomes, or personal wealth, believe these dismal reports and sit on cash and reduce spending, which of course is the vicious cycle that further damages the economy and delays the recovery.
Nostradamus and the mayans say the world will end dec21 2012 as well, so why do we need money--get out and enjoy your last couple years.lol...
How many of us believe this and act accordingly-not many i hope.
Be positive the worlds economies in 2010 are very resilient-we just need faith and keep the negative forcasts to a minimum.
Otherwise sit on your cash and let it erode with weaking currencies and increasing inflation..your choice!!
My 2 cents...

 

[CFA123]

Some tourism #'s

Non-resident arrivals at DR airports in Jan & Feb 2010 are back to 2008 levels after falling approx 4% same period last year. Info I found does not however indicate by airport... so Punta Cana could be up & Pto Plata arrivals down, or vice versa or anything in betwixt. Source: Central Bank of Dominican Republic

 

[CFA123]

Some arrival #'s for Pto Plata Jan/Feb 2008, 2009, 2010
Source: Central Bank of Dominican Republic Monthly Arrivals by Residency

Doesn't look too good a trend for North Coast tourism - 2010 arrivals at Pto Plata down nearly 20% over 2008/2009 levels. I'd wager the decrease is felt most in Playa Dorada & due to lack of hotels now in Cabarete. Cabarete's condos pretty full this year so far, just not many hotels left bringing in charter flights every week. Sosua 'appears' to be strong to me.

(arrivals in 1000's)

Jan
'08 '09 '10
66k 64k 55k

Feb
'08 '09 '10
68k 69k 54k

 

[CFA123]

Punta Cana is promoted in the US but the north coast is not.

I'd do the same if I were a travel agent, with exception of Cabarete or Samana areas, and maybe Cofresi. As a travel agent, I couldn't see myself recommending Playa Dorada unless the clients were on a really tight budget... and Sosua not unless they were a specific type of tourist with a certain, uhm, focus.

 

[Afgan]

Speaking on the positive side, Dominican Republic should not be really concerned about any crisis or such as long it continues to be the favorite destination for Russian money laundering.

DR is the only country in the World that allows Russian people in without any visa, without checking criminal background and without asking questions about a source of those millions in cash they bring in with them.

Of those thousands of Russian people (mostly in their 30th-early 40th) in Sosua alone anyone is looking for work? Not at all. Instead buying expensive homes and luxury cars and spending days and nights in the most expensive restarants.

If not Russian people these current prices for everything in Sosua wouldn`t be even close to its exhorbitant levels of today.

 

[NALs]

So, if tourism in the DR is up, in one of the worst, if not the worst, recession the US has experienced since the Depression, how is this happening, how has the DR been able to experience an increase in tourism income?

An increase in arrivals from Europe and Latin America has offset the US decline.

 

[CFA123]

An increase in arrivals from Europe and Latin America has offset the US decline.

What US decline?
NALs, interesting comment but not accurate based on Central Bank #'s
Comparison of 2008 thru 2010... North America is up or equal for those months. European visitors are down Jan/Feb year over year.

Aren't you always harping on paying attention to the #'s, not one's impression of reality?

Jan 2008 arrivals by nationality
North America 193,000
Europe 132,000

Jan 2009 arrivals by nationality
North America 198,000
Europe 121,000

Jan 2010 arrivals by nationality
North America 206,000
Europe 121,000

Feb 2008 arrivals by nationality
North America 214,000
Europe 133,000

Feb 2009 arrivals by nationality
North America 212,000
Europe 111,000

Feb 2010 arrivals by nationality
North America 214,000
Europe 106,000

** note, i listed stats for 'north america', but US stats also up over 2008-2010, period, even without inclusion of Canada & Mexico

 

[ExtremeR]

Some people in here will declare the recession over when the US are in pre-recession level of spending and unemployment rate%. Recession over means that instead of going down, we are starting to go back up, although at a very slow pace so far. Everywhere there's signs of more spending altogether from 2009, of course there will be high unemployment (is the last thing to recuperate), but we are getting better.... Recession's over a long time ago.

 

[ExtremeR]

Any postive news is good news.

At least in the commercial and residential sectors it will probably be a couple years or more before it starts to recover.

Sure the US government threw billions of dollars at the banks but apparently didn't force them to lend money - which is the cause of the current problem in the construction area. Then again from the banks point of view why should they lend money for commercial or residentail construction when you can buy homes and commercial buildings at less than the current cost to build them.

All in all throwing money at the banks wasn't such a good solution. To keep this DR related, we are in the dregs here as well - as when people are hurting stateside they don't vacation here as much and aren't interested in building homes here.

Lending money recklessly was the main cause of the recession, but you're right. Bank needs to start lending money to people with good or fair credit (which they are not currently) in order for full recovery to happen.

 

[ExtremeR]

MotoCaribe had a better '09-'10 season than the '08-'09 season.

From what our U.S. customers tell us, there is some pent-up demand coming out. Folks totally cooled last year...remember it was a big election year and politicians were trying to scare up votes...and frankly got bored and had to go somewhere.

Sort of cabin fever.

One question though Cobra, was this the result of a more recognizable name of your business (having more time in the market, more stablished) or do you feel your clients simply had more purchasing power than before. I frankly believe there is more money around.

 

[Oz1]

Las Vegas Economy

It's not over.

The next wave will be foreclosures on Commercial Properties. It's just beginning.

I was shocked at the number of empty new strip centers I saw in FL last week: Tampa, Orlando, WPB, FLL and Miami.

I was shocked to see virtually every high rise with spaces up to 20,000sf available.

Agreed X2 for Las Vegas, NV

Oz

 

[Afgan]

but we are getting better!!!.... Recession's over a long time ago!!!

With all respect, foreclosing and throwing more and more people from their homes in the street - it really means that "recession is over"?

Most Troubled Real Estate Markets - Yahoo! Real Estate

2010 data is the highest in ever before.

Millions of new and new americans keep loseing jobs and have no money even to pay their mortgages. Is it "recession is over long time ago" ?

Having no roof over their heads and no more chance to retire in a forseeable future - will they keep their now useless and unneeded beach homes in Sosua and Cabarete? Why? Reason? What for? For the pleasure of paying monthly $300-$400 maint fee only?

And for those who have funds to invest - doesn`t it make much more sense to buy dirt cheap in Miami or LV or Long Island instead of paying overinflated ridiculouse RE prices in Sosua or Bavaro? In US they have all the legal and civilized protection for their rights and money.

In DR - they have Wild West with no licensed RE agents nor effective and working laws.

It looks like the real recession is just starting to show itself full fledge.

 

[cobraboy]

One question though Cobra, was this the result of a more recognizable name of your business (having more time in the market, more stablished) or do you feel your clients simply had more purchasing power than before. I frankly believe there is more money around.

No.

Many of our '09-'10 guests communicated with us last year and felt their personal situation was too tenuous to spend money at that time. They came this year because they felt better, and they needed to go do something.

Should I mention we had 12 cancellations this winter because of the Haitian earthquake? That's a lot...

 

[RacerX]

Some people in here will declare the recession over when the US are in pre-recession level of spending and unemployment rate%. Recession over means that instead of going down, we are starting to go back up, although at a very slow pace so far. Everywhere there's signs of more spending altogether from 2009, of course there will be high unemployment (is the last thing to recuperate), but we are getting better.... Recession's over a long time ago.

Nooo, I dont think so. If there is no re-employment then there is no end to the recession. People without jobs dont buy anything so the increase in spending is all smoke and mirrors. or some jazz souped up my media and advertisers to promote on TV to convince you to go out and spend money you dont have. Thety said the recession was over in November 3 weeks before Black Friday. What happened then?
Reckless lending didnt cause the recession. It was greed, CDOs, tranch mortgages, and a hyperinflated RE market which everyone was flipping and skipping. Let s be clear here. And until the overabundance in REO properties and values adjust to realistic economic conditions there will be no recovery.

 

[RacerX]

With all respect, foreclosing and throwing more and more people from their homes in the street - it really means that "recession is over"?

Most Troubled Real Estate Markets - Yahoo! Real Estate

2010 data is the highest in ever before.

Millions of new and new americans keep loseing jobs and have no money even to pay their mortgages. Is it "recession is over long time ago" ?

Having no roof over their heads and no more chance to retire in a forseeable future - will they keep their now useless and unneeded beach homes in Sosua and Cabarete? Why? Reason? What for? For the pleasure of paying monthly $300-$400 maint fee only?

And for those who have funds to invest - doesn`t it make much more sense to buy dirt cheap in Miami or LV or Long Island instead of paying overinflated ridiculouse RE prices in Sosua or Bavaro? In US they have all the legal and civilized protection for their rights and money.

In DR - they have Wild West with no licensed RE agents nor effective and working laws.

It looks like the real recession is just starting to show itself full fledge.

Sounds like a buyers market to me...

 

[ExtremeR]

Nooo, I dont think so. If there is no re-employment then there is no end to the recession. People without jobs dont buy anything so the increase in spending is all smoke and mirrors. or some jazz souped up my media and advertisers to promote on TV to convince you to go out and spend money you dont have. Thety said the recession was over in November 3 weeks before Black Friday. What happened then?
Reckless lending didnt cause the recession. It was greed, CDOs, tranch mortgages, and a hyperinflated RE market which everyone was flipping and skipping. Let s be clear here. And until the overabundance in REO properties and values adjust to realistic economic conditions there will be no recovery.

You sound like somebody who has no clue of what is talking about. In economy there's no theory in your head, in economy there is a thing called HISTORY, and if history has taught us anything is that the last thing to recuperate after a devastating recession is the unemployment rate. Spending will increase even with the unemployment rate being high as those who were wary of losing their job starts feeling more confident they will keep it, hence start spending as it is the case stated by Cobraboy in his last post. That in turn creates more profits for the business (big and small) and create an increasing demand of labor. In order for the unemployment rate to fall to the 6's we will have to wait at least until 2012-2013. But the recession as we call it, IS OVER.

Don't confuse that with being in the same 2006-levels.

 

[AlterEgo]

Should I mention we had 12 cancellations this winter because of the Haitian earthquake? That's a lot...

Yes, it is a lot. But then we Americans aren't known for our geographical prowess. Three-quarters of my own family in US were worried we were injured or killed when the quake hit Haiti. Look at a map people!

AE

 

[ExtremeR]

With all respect, foreclosing and throwing more and more people from their homes in the street - it really means that "recession is over"?

Most Troubled Real Estate Markets - Yahoo! Real Estate

2010 data is the highest in ever before.

Millions of new and new americans keep loseing jobs and have no money even to pay their mortgages. Is it "recession is over long time ago" ?

Having no roof over their heads and no more chance to retire in a forseeable future - will they keep their now useless and unneeded beach homes in Sosua and Cabarete? Why? Reason? What for? For the pleasure of paying monthly $300-$400 maint fee only?

And for those who have funds to invest - doesn`t it make much more sense to buy dirt cheap in Miami or LV or Long Island instead of paying overinflated ridiculouse RE prices in Sosua or Bavaro? In US they have all the legal and civilized protection for their rights and money.

In DR - they have Wild West with no licensed RE agents nor effective and working laws.

It looks like the real recession is just starting to show itself full fledge.

First off, please don't add exclamation marks in my quotes, thanks.

Second a Recession is 2 consecutive quarters with a negative GDP growth. That was over in last November, in fact the economy grew a lot in this last quarter (something around 6% if I don't remember correctly). Of course things aren't at the same level or state as before the recession, there was a damage done which will take time to heal it. But the main thing here, the main question is "The worst over"? The answer is yes, instead of going more down we are starting to go up. How long will it take to reach previous levels? a few years..hopefully sooner. Also remember the perspective, a person who is still unemployed will always says the recession is on, even though more money is flowing around in the streets.

 

[Bronxboy]

Also remember the perspective, a person who is still unemployed will always says the recession is on, even though more money is flowing around in the streets.

I agree 100%