correct.
and numbers of those "who is still unemployed" keep growing faster and faster
same as numbers of those "who is still homeless" being foreclosured.
For Donald Trump, Abramovich and Bill Gates the recession is already over, I agree with you.
- Thread starter MrMike
- Start date
Recession: is the worst over?
correct.
and numbers of those "who is still unemployed" keep growing faster and faster
same as numbers of those "who is still homeless" being foreclosured.
For Donald Trump, Abramovich and Bill Gates the recession is already over, I agree with you.
Last I checked those numbers stopped at 9.7 for the last 2 months, so in fact the unemployment rate stopped increasing, yes people are still being laid off, but that also means more people are being hired.
A lot of economists say:
- the 5.7-6.0% is an anomoly caused by gubmint $$$ hitting the streets, and much of that is because of gubmint public works.
- the increase is in inventories which had been depleted over prior quarters.
- The "Cash for Clunkers" had a short term inmpact
I'm not so sure it was REAL growth.
I look forward to Q1 '10 numbers to see what direction the U.S. economy is moving.
And what about the people who are still unemployed but have run out of benefits? They don't show up at all in the unemployment statistics. They probably show up on welfare rolls...
As long as they continue looking for work they will still count on the statistics.
Through the survey made each month to 60,000 households country wide. Whoever is not looking for work shouldn't be in the rate as he/she is no longer in the market.
Current Population Survey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Actually they don't. That is why there are estimates of the "real" unemployment rate of around 16%.
Another stat not considered: under employment. A friend and former classmate in FL, a middle manager type for a bank, has an MBA and many years of experience. A real pro. She lost her job 18 months ago. She just took a job as a part-time cashier at Publix. OFFICIALLY she's "employed" and is off unemployment benefits. But being underemployed to her extent is...to me...nearly the same as being part of the unemployed.
The same could be said of the DR where underemployment is rampant.
Stats don't tell the whole stary...
To me the real picture of unemployment goes from foreclosures dinamics. People lose jobs - in a little while lose their home.
And foreclosure numbers keep growing like a snow ball. And it is even while government measures are still in place. Very soon foreclosure rates should double easy. "Recession is over" - never seen a better joke for a very long time.
Two more years at least just to reach the bottom. If not four-five.
Totally agree with you on the underemployment status of the nation, but on what you base that they don't count those who are actively looking for work. How do you think the government gets their info for their statistics??
I totally agree.
Took me one year before I found a consulting job here in NY.
I have a friend who works for the NYC shelters. He tells me that homeless shelters were once for welfare receipents waiting for housing and mentally unstable people. Now, these shelters are filled with people who had houses, cars and all the luxuries associated with being middle class.
They lost everything!!!!!!!
Sad situation that is only going to get worse. The recession, like you said, has not reached the worst yet in my opinion.
All the gubmint can do is look at the numbers adding to and being deleted from formal unemployment roles.
They can't really count those not on UE and still looking or not looking for work.
Uhhh...make them up MOL? Not that a gubmint would do that...:cheeky:ExtremeR said:
Actually, I've been in business for 30 years now. Occasionally I'd get some form/questionaire from the Dept. of Labor asking about future hires/layoffs, demographic data, income figures, etc. I suppose they extrapolate data from that.
But no way is it even close to accurate.
I don't think DR is really faring that well with the recession. I heard that people are really not spending much. A lot of the business people that i know are not paying they debts and their business are not doing as well. As in NYC, a lot of people can't find job. I have a friend been looking for over a year and now turning to doing volunteer so there won't be a big gap in her resume. And I know one of the economist that used to work for Morgan Stanley had to work in the unemployment agency because she can't get back to finance. But if the market is a leading indicator of the economy, then the economy might indeed be recovering. I guess the recovering rate is not what we expected. It will be a slow recover and take much longer.
And then you have this little number
2010 Census Jobs
This temporary employment will last just long enough to take you off the rolls, then you can reapply, and its going on right now. and as the ad says hundreds of thousands of jobs and they have been hiring, which could account for part of the drop to 9.7. But there is no way its permanent.
the recession is over...hardy har har!
If only economics was a real science then you have could a white lab coat with your name embroidered on it and a PhD to hang on the wall and it would be good to look at and then you could have all these stories about the girls you almost could bang in the conference room. But in reality economics is a pseudo-science or an art-form like being sous chef or championship breakdancer.
Every post you have written is corroboration of government statistics and if only we could believe they were actually true. Sure unemployment is 5%, or 6% or 11% or 40%, who knows? Heres how you tell........We live in a consumption based economy. If people no work, they no buy. No buy, you lose you worky.
What bullpimples told you that employment is the last thing to recover in an economy? Ha! It is the first thing to recover in a CONSUMPTION DRIVEN ECONOMIC MODEL. Of course 1st detraction to existence: My service sector job must give me enough of a disposable income to actually participate in the mass consumption. And if it doesnt then how do I buy your wares?
2nd detraction: the stock market doesnt indicate anything of relevance about the economy except the financial vitality of the company being traded. If the company does good times 100 then the economy overall must be good. Hmmm, well McDonalds always does good, but eating there doesnt. Wells Fargo does good, but foreclosures are still bonkers in California. So its spurious reasoning at best.
3rd: How do you know you re not desseminating propaganda with that if you re not looking for work you re not being counted statement? I can show you 100-200 people in NY looking for work and most of them wont get it before the end of the month, or the end of the year.
4: those white collars workers who lost there jobs are screwed. Your buddy who lost her job at Morgan Stanley and is now at Publix. Good luck! Florida is not the place to be, she s overEDUCATED(and her qualifications are unknown because no one wants her right now).
5: More men have lost their job in this recession than women have so until they can find new footing expect the worst.
6: Stats only prove to show what you want them to. Last month they GDP did this or that? How do you know? The government told you. The government is full of publicists posing as scientists and media consultants posing as journalists. This guy or that guy, think one thing, Nicholson in A Few Good Men, "You cant handle the truth". If they told the populace that the MEN who lose their job now they will not be living the good life, ever, for all intents and purposes the economic recesssion is over. Unemployment is high, unemployment benefits in NJ have had to be extended like 4 times. Didnt the guy from Kentucky deny an extension in unemployment benefits because "if you re getting benefits then you have no incentive to look for work". Excuse me, but what the fyuc is that???????????????????? So I m not allowed to eat until I m on the payroll of some place, whenever that may be? Cant shave, sleep, shower, sit down in peace? Come on, man that is insanity. But then again so is religious belief in your government stats.
Nationwide food stamps apps are at all time high. WHere are your stats on percentage of households that have food insecurity(thats what they call it now-when you cannot buy enough grub to feed your family)
And who would care what some blowhard says on TV when they report "the recession is over" when they re getting paid $100-200K and you dont have enough money to buy groceries? Serious question...
If only economics was a real science then you have could a white lab coat with your name embroidered on it and a PhD to hang on the wall and it would be good to look at and then you could have all these stories about the girls you almost could bang in the conference room. But in reality economics is a pseudo-science or an art-form like being sous chef or championship breakdancer.
Every post you have written is corroboration of government statistics and if only we could believe they were actually true. Sure unemployment is 5%, or 6% or 11% or 40%, who knows? Heres how you tell........We live in a consumption based economy. If people no work, they no buy. No buy, you lose you worky.
What bullpimples told you that employment is the last thing to recover in an economy? Ha! It is the first thing to recover in a CONSUMPTION DRIVEN ECONOMIC MODEL. Of course 1st detraction to existence: My service sector job must give me enough of a disposable income to actually participate in the mass consumption. And if it doesnt then how do I buy your wares?
2nd detraction: the stock market doesnt indicate anything of relevance about the economy except the financial vitality of the company being traded. If the company does good times 100 then the economy overall must be good. Hmmm, well McDonalds always does good, but eating there doesnt. Wells Fargo does good, but foreclosures are still bonkers in California. So its spurious reasoning at best.
3rd: How do you know you re not desseminating propaganda with that if you re not looking for work you re not being counted statement? I can show you 100-200 people in NY looking for work and most of them wont get it before the end of the month, or the end of the year.
4: those white collars workers who lost there jobs are screwed. Your buddy who lost her job at Morgan Stanley and is now at Publix. Good luck! Florida is not the place to be, she s overEDUCATED(and her qualifications are unknown because no one wants her right now).
5: More men have lost their job in this recession than women have so until they can find new footing expect the worst.
6: Stats only prove to show what you want them to. Last month they GDP did this or that? How do you know? The government told you. The government is full of publicists posing as scientists and media consultants posing as journalists. This guy or that guy, think one thing, Nicholson in A Few Good Men, "You cant handle the truth". If they told the populace that the MEN who lose their job now they will not be living the good life, ever, for all intents and purposes the economic recesssion is over. Unemployment is high, unemployment benefits in NJ have had to be extended like 4 times. Didnt the guy from Kentucky deny an extension in unemployment benefits because "if you re getting benefits then you have no incentive to look for work". Excuse me, but what the fyuc is that???????????????????? So I m not allowed to eat until I m on the payroll of some place, whenever that may be? Cant shave, sleep, shower, sit down in peace? Come on, man that is insanity. But then again so is religious belief in your government stats.
Nationwide food stamps apps are at all time high. WHere are your stats on percentage of households that have food insecurity(thats what they call it now-when you cannot buy enough grub to feed your family)
And who would care what some blowhard says on TV when they report "the recession is over" when they re getting paid $100-200K and you dont have enough money to buy groceries? Serious question...
far from over
not gonna give statistics cause i haven't a clue
just from what i've seen and read
housing market is heading up....increase in prices....
builders don't build houses if they don't have the money
people don't buy houses unless they can get the money
car market is startin to bounce back...
and of course thru all this the banks are STILL making a profit
it's far from over....
let's just say it's slowed a touch for some to get a grip on
not gonna give statistics cause i haven't a clue
just from what i've seen and read
housing market is heading up....increase in prices....
builders don't build houses if they don't have the money
people don't buy houses unless they can get the money
car market is startin to bounce back...
and of course thru all this the banks are STILL making a profit
it's far from over....
let's just say it's slowed a touch for some to get a grip on