Depends on several factors such as what the actual price of a ticket will be.
There are various projections out there ranging from as low as RD$5 to as high as RD$75. Obviously, different groups with different perspective on this projects are giving the disparate projections.
One thing is certain, the metro will be more efficient than any terrestial mode of transport in the following arenas:
1. Time, it's expected that the metro will cover its entire route (from Villa Mella to Centro de los Heroes) in around 13 to 15 minutes. It does not matter how fast someone travels by land, 15 minutes is not even the minimum time for such travel along such route.
2. Efficiency, unlike conchos and guaguas which stop at will just about anywhere causing traffic problems, the metro leaves when it has to go. No hold ups, not bottlenecks and people get to where they wanted to go.
3. While this will become more favorable once the system has more than one line, it's still important to note that the passenger will only pay once for his/her ticket. Once a person is past the ticket buying area, they can ride the trains and switch lines as often as they like without having to pay additional money. Unlike conchos or guaguas, often they don't veer off their routes and often times, people taking those types of public transport need to switch cars or guaguas paying more to get to their destination everytime they hop into a new vehicle. Not so with a metro, but again this becomes more beneficial once the system has more than one line.
4. The metro system will also include a series of buses which will circulate adjacent neighborhoods of each metro station. This will be done in order to make it more comfortable and efficient for metro passengers to move from their neighborhood area to the metro station, take the metro to their destination area, and be on their way. Not much has been mentioned about this feature, except on the intial presentations of the project and a few times after the construction of the first line started, however.
Taking all those things into consideration, in addition to the fact that the government is claiming that tickets will cost less than a concho and anti-metro entities are claiming that it will cost more, the follow set of conclusions are possible.
1. In general, people might take the metro more often than the erratic public transport now available if the government suggestion that it will cost less than a concho remains true. If that's the case, taking a metro will not only be more beneficial and economical on the pockets of individuals, but also time wise as well which, as you know, time is money in the long run. The more time people spend doing what they wanted to do vs travelling to their destination, the better off people will be in the long run. How much better is difficult to say without data.
2. If the metro tickets do turn out to be more expensive than a concho, many people may not use the metro for their day to day travel. However, the large savings in time and higher level of comfort vs a typical concho or guagua traveling the same route could be a means for the Dominican to justify the higher monetary cost of such mode of transport. While there are examples of official public buses not being used as expected due to higher cost for the usage of those buses, one must also understand that a bus runs as fast as the traffic that sorrounds it.
Thus, taking a concho is not only more economical, but makes more sense since a concho and an official public bus will most likely be stuck in the same traffic flow and moving more or less at the same speed, thus there is no real savings in any shape of form between the two.
With a metro, while the conchos are stuck in slower traffic flows, the metro travels at its expected speed which is much quicker and efficient than terrestial transport.
Thus, how much do Dominican value their time will be the deciding factor between whether Dominicans will be willing to pay more monetarily while saving timewise.
3. What is most likely to occur is that government would keep price of a ticket for metro usage below the cost of a concho. All other savings offered by the metro will exist no matter what, but if the metro also becomes a savings in cold hard cash for the rider, the conchos will be out of business. Once the conchos are out of business, the main competition of the government will be out of business and thus the government would be able to increase the metro fares (perhaps not as high as RD$75, but higher than a concho ride) and due to the lack of conchos the people will have to pay the on going fare, which more than expected people might be willing to pay once they have experienced the efficiency of traveling across town faster than they normally would have.
However, every time metro price goes up beyond what a concho would have cost, the probability that unofficial conchos will come into existence is very real taking away business from the metro. This means that the metro will have to remain either cheaper or be priced on par a concho. In fact, because of the tremendous savings a metro offers in traveling time, the metro could be priced slightly above the conchos and the probability that it will remain very popular is very real due to the combined savings in time and the relatively small difference between metro rides vs hot, stuffy, slow, and much more dangerous concho rides.
These are the scenarios that could appear, but only time will tell.
It will all ride on how much Dominicans value their time in travelling across the city. A good way to get an amateur idea of this would be to ask Dominicans what they think about current travelling times along the route the metro is under construction and whether or not they would like for the travelling time to be much less. Afterwards, a question asking them if they will be willing to pay slightly above the fare of a concho if it allowed them to reached their destination much faster.
While data is better than anecdotal evidence, the anecdotal could give a general idea as to what might happen once the metro is completed, at least the first couple of lines.
But, again, only time will tell and for this we need some time to pass to see where it will go.
-NALs
