Quite sober.
It has been well publicized by government that the objective of the DR is to have 10 million tourists by the year 2022. My projection was by 2025 allowing some flexibility.
They have four year strategic planning and are ahead of schedule already in the latest plan.
The total numbers of tourist arrivals excluding domestic tourism was 5,141.377 for 2014. Already in the first six moths of 2015 there has been a 7.3% increase. The rate of increase of the past few years is consistent with the planned growth.
There were 4000 new beds under construction at the beginning of the year and since then we have had a raft of new hotels announced so perhaps that number has doubled and more. A further $2.3 billion of hospitality developments are due to break ground very shortly. We are talking at least 15,000 or so new beds in the shorter term.
The airport at Punta Cana is being extended, and there is plenty of spare capacity to expand traffic flow in other airports and further expansions planned.
A new passenger cruise terminal is being prepared at Maimon and the projected inflow of tourist from that in 3 years is a minimum of 600,000 annually.
More than 65% of tourist traffic from overseas arrives in Punta Cana/LR and their is great potential for more tourism growth in that area with all the new roads and empty beaches. There is huge development potential all the way up the east coast to Miches where there are 4 hotels due to be announced later this year.
There are a number of new hotel developments underway and in the pipeline for Santo Domingo which diversifies the tourist base.
A major resort has been announced in to the south west of Bani and this will open this area. Higher end tourism developments in both Samana and Barahona/Pedernales are in the pipeline.
And the US accounts for 40% of arrivals,with steadily increasing inflows from Europe, South America, Canada and Asia too.
And outside all this there are real estate developments and domestic tourism.
Realistic yes.......even with competition form Cuba and the rest of the Caribbean who all can benefit from increased tourism growth following years of recession in many developed countries.
A number of 7m per annum by 2018 is looking very achievable indeed without domestic tourism considered.
The numbers stack up and perhaps only a global shock such as we had a few years back can alter this.
Sadly PoP has become a backwater and clouds ones thinking of the rest of DR especially the East Coast when it comes to tourism.
in the event that you get some free time, pleasr read this working paper regarding dimisging returns to tourism specialization
http://www.rcfea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp41_09.pdf