The PRSC dilemma for the year 2000

Despite the weakening of the PRSC, political analysts concur that those who have voted for the PRSC in the past will decide the 1996 election. This is a double bladed weapon, however, as Jacinto Peynado must come out of this conflict as a strong option for the party in the year 2000. While the PRSC has, in the past, been an opponent of the PRD, it is likely that if there is a schism within the party that many who have voted for it would favor the PRD as opposed to the PLD, which has unofficially linked itself to the “anillo palaciego” group.

This is an interesting situation for Jacinto Peynado who must now choose his enemy. While on one hand, his voters may incline towards the PRD to demonstrate their rejection of the Balaguer-Leonel “alliance”, their doing so would strengthen the political positioning of Fernando Alvarez Bogaert, who seeks to be Peña’s heir in the party but who will meet strong opposition from within the PRD, particularly from Santo Domingo’s Mayor, Rafael Suberví Bonilla.

It seems that Jacinto Peynado’s votes will not be enough, without the support of Dr Balaguer, to win the second place in the election. So many PRSC supporters could split, with some voting for Fernando Alvarez Bogaert, who is a PRSC dissident. But if they do vote for Fernando Alvarez Bogaert, it will create a problem for Jacinto, because he may have to fight the former in the year 2000. If Fernando Alvarez Bogaert cannot command the support of the PRD, he may even return to the PRSC, which he still has not officially left. So, Mr Peynado has not only to meet the challenge of wielding his power to decide the present election, but has to do so with his presidential aspirations for the year 2000 very much in mind.