- Thread starter Hillbilly
- Start date
Lots going on, but nothing happening
we have clouds all day long in Cabeza de Toro, since this afternoon several short showers on and off and on and off.
it is the little Tropical Wave which moved over the lesser Antilles, falling apart, due that with it's rainload widespread, it is moving quickly today and tonight over hispaniola from southeast to northwest. i guess we finally get a share of rain from that everywhere, even on the northshore later on. maybe it even started there, too.
no wind involved, over here the wind is Zero, Ocean flatted down like a Plate.
btw Juanita,
are you the one who designed the Miniwiz??
just curious b/c a "Juanita" been mentioned with that one.
it looks great, like it a lot.
i am one of the directors of the Beyond the Beach Childrens Foundation,
that's why i ask.
looking forward to sunny weekend
Mike
it is the little Tropical Wave which moved over the lesser Antilles, falling apart, due that with it's rainload widespread, it is moving quickly today and tonight over hispaniola from southeast to northwest. i guess we finally get a share of rain from that everywhere, even on the northshore later on. maybe it even started there, too.
no wind involved, over here the wind is Zero, Ocean flatted down like a Plate.
btw Juanita,
are you the one who designed the Miniwiz??
just curious b/c a "Juanita" been mentioned with that one.
it looks great, like it a lot.
i am one of the directors of the Beyond the Beach Childrens Foundation,
that's why i ask.
looking forward to sunny weekend
Mike
the lil wind of the tropical wave arrived,
but just gusts, at least the leafes on the palmtrees move a bit once in a while, most afternoon the wind been dead over here.
yes Luis,
90L is the first of the year with good chances to make it to a TS.
it should be a TD soon.
Mike
but just gusts, at least the leafes on the palmtrees move a bit once in a while, most afternoon the wind been dead over here.
yes Luis,
90L is the first of the year with good chances to make it to a TS.
it should be a TD soon.
Mike
just took a look on the shots from 30 minutes ago.
the most southern rest is in the Barahona area, yes, i would guess you guys got some gusts or rain during this morning, here on the east it passed, we are on a sunny and very calm day, no wind aroound, Ocean completely flattened down.
formerly TD#2 shows now up just as a tropical wave, hurt by the SAL and high windshear, those unfavorable conditions will stay bad for the system during this weekend, but nonthless of all the conditions against it the area there is still trying to improve it's organization of thunderstorms around the center, it could be a TD again early weekend.
90L is still the same growing huge one, the circulation is there and in a very wide area. on it's north it is getting partially SAL sucked in, but not much due to the distance to the saharan air layer. on it's southern side the european sat shots show organized bands of strong thunderstorm activity. it's windforce is over 30mphr, that would mean to call it a TD, but still the thunderstorm activities are not present in the center, so it stays a Invest 90L by name.
it will be TD#3 very soon, before the weekend is over, very favorable surrounding conditions to increase power and get better organized, windshear is even expected to decrease more than it's anyways now favorable 15 knots.
Hurricane Hunters have a flight sheduled for TD#2 tomorrow morning, maybe they bring also data from 90L soon.
at the moment it is a organized TD#3 it's track will come clearer,
but it looks pretty well like a top candidate to be shortly after the weekend TS Ana and shortly afterwards the first hurricane of the season for the Atlantic Basin.
it can not be close to the Islands before wednesday.
by sunday we will know what it is up to.
Mike
the most southern rest is in the Barahona area, yes, i would guess you guys got some gusts or rain during this morning, here on the east it passed, we are on a sunny and very calm day, no wind aroound, Ocean completely flattened down.
formerly TD#2 shows now up just as a tropical wave, hurt by the SAL and high windshear, those unfavorable conditions will stay bad for the system during this weekend, but nonthless of all the conditions against it the area there is still trying to improve it's organization of thunderstorms around the center, it could be a TD again early weekend.
90L is still the same growing huge one, the circulation is there and in a very wide area. on it's north it is getting partially SAL sucked in, but not much due to the distance to the saharan air layer. on it's southern side the european sat shots show organized bands of strong thunderstorm activity. it's windforce is over 30mphr, that would mean to call it a TD, but still the thunderstorm activities are not present in the center, so it stays a Invest 90L by name.
it will be TD#3 very soon, before the weekend is over, very favorable surrounding conditions to increase power and get better organized, windshear is even expected to decrease more than it's anyways now favorable 15 knots.
Hurricane Hunters have a flight sheduled for TD#2 tomorrow morning, maybe they bring also data from 90L soon.
at the moment it is a organized TD#3 it's track will come clearer,
but it looks pretty well like a top candidate to be shortly after the weekend TS Ana and shortly afterwards the first hurricane of the season for the Atlantic Basin.
it can not be close to the Islands before wednesday.
by sunday we will know what it is up to.
Mike
Tropical Storm # brewing ANA
Click the link to see any changes to the pictureAtlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Projected path
Click the link to see any changes to the pictureAtlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Projected path
good morning everybody.
let's enjoy the sunny weekend,
next weeek is school start for the kids, and that's not the only bad outlook for the same week.
2 bases loaded.
Depression #2 is back like awaited and gains powers quick.
it is a small system, now named TS/Tropical Storm Ana,
and it is by the 11AM updates today on a straight track towards the Islands.
we're in huricane season since a while, so i guess there's no need to recommend folks to stock up the fridges and fuel the generators.
it should be hurricane Ana by monday morning due to the now very favorable surrounding conditions, low near surface pressure on all the westwards track, til now no excessive windshear in sight, perfectly high SST's around the Isles. it will as a max reach a weak Cat 1 force.
the important point will be reached around early monday morning, weak storms tend to swift when hitting opposition like the landmass of the northern lesser antilles, a NNW track for monday afternoon and monday night is possible and would keep us out of any danger.
meeting point by actual track and forward speed would be Tuesday somewhere early morning/before noon.
Tropical Depression TD#3.
formerly Invest 90L is like awaited on the rise, i awaited it to be a TS before TD#2, but now the name Ana is taken, so it will be "Bill" chasing "Ana".
TD#3 is located more south of the track of Ana, also intensifying and it is wide spread, the potential for a big boy.
today TD#3 is running within a high pressure area, but will find the very favorable track over high SST's and low near surface pressure to it's WNW, in the foodsteps of Ana. the difference: when reaching the 14degreesN line it will be on a WNW track, while Ana is with just 550 miles of distance to the Isles on a straight westward course and fast.
TD#3 will not change directions as quick as Ana, it will be much wider and more powerful, i say it will pass the Islands, NE of the most northern Islands of the Lesser Antilles.
TD#3 is running 2 days behind Ana, that's very close, would be nice to see it sucking away powers from Ana on her eastern side.
PC is looking on a sunny weekend, and tomorrow there will be some interesting sat shots watching.
nothing to panic for,
the usual swift would be a pass 150miles east of Puerto Rico on a NW track with clouds, some rain and a strong Northeastern wind for PC mid week ahead.
that Lady should know what the usual behavior/track for her kind has to be.
Mike
let's enjoy the sunny weekend,
next weeek is school start for the kids, and that's not the only bad outlook for the same week.
2 bases loaded.
Depression #2 is back like awaited and gains powers quick.
it is a small system, now named TS/Tropical Storm Ana,
and it is by the 11AM updates today on a straight track towards the Islands.
we're in huricane season since a while, so i guess there's no need to recommend folks to stock up the fridges and fuel the generators.
it should be hurricane Ana by monday morning due to the now very favorable surrounding conditions, low near surface pressure on all the westwards track, til now no excessive windshear in sight, perfectly high SST's around the Isles. it will as a max reach a weak Cat 1 force.
the important point will be reached around early monday morning, weak storms tend to swift when hitting opposition like the landmass of the northern lesser antilles, a NNW track for monday afternoon and monday night is possible and would keep us out of any danger.
meeting point by actual track and forward speed would be Tuesday somewhere early morning/before noon.
Tropical Depression TD#3.
formerly Invest 90L is like awaited on the rise, i awaited it to be a TS before TD#2, but now the name Ana is taken, so it will be "Bill" chasing "Ana".
TD#3 is located more south of the track of Ana, also intensifying and it is wide spread, the potential for a big boy.
today TD#3 is running within a high pressure area, but will find the very favorable track over high SST's and low near surface pressure to it's WNW, in the foodsteps of Ana. the difference: when reaching the 14degreesN line it will be on a WNW track, while Ana is with just 550 miles of distance to the Isles on a straight westward course and fast.
TD#3 will not change directions as quick as Ana, it will be much wider and more powerful, i say it will pass the Islands, NE of the most northern Islands of the Lesser Antilles.
TD#3 is running 2 days behind Ana, that's very close, would be nice to see it sucking away powers from Ana on her eastern side.
PC is looking on a sunny weekend, and tomorrow there will be some interesting sat shots watching.
nothing to panic for,
the usual swift would be a pass 150miles east of Puerto Rico on a NW track with clouds, some rain and a strong Northeastern wind for PC mid week ahead.
that Lady should know what the usual behavior/track for her kind has to be.
Mike
ha ha
it's august 15th,
to be prepared is something which should've been done a while ago.
from actual positions and movements i would place Ana closer to us than TD#3.
but it is anyways too early to see a final destin for any of 'em for sure.
Mike
interesting changes within just a few hours.
watching the live sat loop Ana does not "curculate', seems to move forward without moving within itself.
searching for an answer i found jeff Masters 12:30PM block with the explanation. the forecasted low windshear is actually a high westwind pushing dry sahara air into Ana, she looks again like she get's destroyed.
the tracking models for both stroms been updated at noon.
IF Ana survives the actual attacks they still bring her on her track closely north of us into the bahamas, one model stil brings her right over Hispaniola before running into the bahamas.
sucking in that air by Ana is cleaning the path for TD#3, soon be named TS Bill.
Kill the Lad and let the boy run to the north.
Mike
Jeff Masters Blogg is on Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
watching the live sat loop Ana does not "curculate', seems to move forward without moving within itself.
searching for an answer i found jeff Masters 12:30PM block with the explanation. the forecasted low windshear is actually a high westwind pushing dry sahara air into Ana, she looks again like she get's destroyed.
the tracking models for both stroms been updated at noon.
IF Ana survives the actual attacks they still bring her on her track closely north of us into the bahamas, one model stil brings her right over Hispaniola before running into the bahamas.
sucking in that air by Ana is cleaning the path for TD#3, soon be named TS Bill.
Kill the Lad and let the boy run to the north.
Mike
Jeff Masters Blogg is on Wunder Blog : Weather Underground
ha ha ha
Luis,
i did not know you are outside.
your timing for coming back is perfect.
""IF"" Ana survives her actual big dilemma she would be somewhere over PR or northern between PR and our east somewhen midnight/early morning tuesday morning, wandering along that line towards the Bahamas.
and TD#3 got it's name,
like expected it is Tropical Storm Bill, like hillBILLy, lol.
Bill looks bad, is huge, and did not yet start to reach the top favorable surroundings to intensify, so he shows til now his smoothest friendly face.
he will reach those favorable conditions in perfect manner shortly before he arrives east of the Isles, where exactly that will be is of course out in the blue that far ahead, we can guess his points after the weekend.
if he decides our route he would effect us somewhen thursday noon/later afternoon, looks like even in the worst scenario that both survive and pass by you can land during the calm hours on wednesday, he he.
Bill has a clear circulation, his center contains strong thunderstorms and he runs a organized center, he has sorrily all that stuff they need to grow up and wander where they wanna go to.
and the longer Ana stays alive than more she cleans Billy's path from our SAL protection shield east of the lesser Antilles.
that dry saharan air is always a huge decider to let 'em grow big or die far offshore without effect.
and we are on a sunny weekend.
whatya doing outside with that fabulous weather here?
Mike
and yeap,
several regulars on DR1 watch the sat shots and search for changes regularily,
so the observations and opinions of all together brought the last years a good guess about "what's up".
i am myself a freak for weather watching,
during the season i have on one screen the live sat loops running 24/7,
even that we spent a while on the beach this afternoon, it's caribbean suntime as usual.
and then there's the vital selfinterest in case of the boats ankering in front of the house.
in case of Ana we will do a last check on monday morning,
if she survives the weekend it is no prob to move the boats outha here on monday noon, Ana can not be more than a strong TS or a very weak Cat 1 hurricane, "IF" she will be anything on monday, so such we survive unharmed at the neighbours in the Cap Cana Marina, great protected spot.
unless we don't get something much stronger we do not need to drive the boats through rough waters down into the rivers on the southcoast like we did the years before.
this is the 3rd season with the Cap Cana Marina here, great stuff, saves a lot of hassle and headache and danger for boats and crews.
Mike
several regulars on DR1 watch the sat shots and search for changes regularily,
so the observations and opinions of all together brought the last years a good guess about "what's up".
i am myself a freak for weather watching,
during the season i have on one screen the live sat loops running 24/7,
even that we spent a while on the beach this afternoon, it's caribbean suntime as usual.
and then there's the vital selfinterest in case of the boats ankering in front of the house.
in case of Ana we will do a last check on monday morning,
if she survives the weekend it is no prob to move the boats outha here on monday noon, Ana can not be more than a strong TS or a very weak Cat 1 hurricane, "IF" she will be anything on monday, so such we survive unharmed at the neighbours in the Cap Cana Marina, great protected spot.
unless we don't get something much stronger we do not need to drive the boats through rough waters down into the rivers on the southcoast like we did the years before.
this is the 3rd season with the Cap Cana Marina here, great stuff, saves a lot of hassle and headache and danger for boats and crews.
Mike
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UKMET has it just on the outer line, that doesn't count.
we have a def date with Ana tomorrow night, somewhere monday midnight/tuesday early morning she will be nearby south of our Island or like 2 of the reliable models predict walking right over the Island.
Ana is a weak TS and does not contain heavy waterloads, winds in the 35-45mphr range will not be a problem for anything, flooding should not be an issue of this small formation.
the same 2 models predict that Ana will be dead in 2 days, b/c she will not survive the big and mountainuous terrain of Hispaniola.
it's a sunny sunday now,
let's extend the weekend by a sunny monday and stay home on tuesday.
Ana is moving quick, there would be all fine again by wednesday.
and we have a good chance that she will not run straight on land here but wander through the caribbean Sea parallel along our southern Hispaniola shoreline.
Bill showed from the beginning all features of a big boy and did not change anything.
clear circulation, thunderstormactivities, even still not under top conditions and also with dry saharan air sucked in he is intensifying constantly, he will reach very favorable waters/conditions for a huge power increase during next week, wednesday on he will be a very big boy which we could not stand.
the models are united on his track, passing north of the northernmost Isles, near enough to mess our east coast ocean conditions, not close enough for anything else.
Bill will be a concern for the US East Coast, on such strength and path they can wander all the way up to Canadian waters.
for a extremely late season start the atlantic basin is quiet crowded now.
2 tropical storms, one to soon be a hurricane, a overnight appeared TD in the gulf of mexico hitting this afternoon and an other low on the eastern side of the sunny state.
and Bill and Ana may clear the highway from dry saharan air for further family members on the run.
let's hit that beach
Sea is completely flat today
Mike
we have a def date with Ana tomorrow night, somewhere monday midnight/tuesday early morning she will be nearby south of our Island or like 2 of the reliable models predict walking right over the Island.
Ana is a weak TS and does not contain heavy waterloads, winds in the 35-45mphr range will not be a problem for anything, flooding should not be an issue of this small formation.
the same 2 models predict that Ana will be dead in 2 days, b/c she will not survive the big and mountainuous terrain of Hispaniola.
it's a sunny sunday now,
let's extend the weekend by a sunny monday and stay home on tuesday.
Ana is moving quick, there would be all fine again by wednesday.
and we have a good chance that she will not run straight on land here but wander through the caribbean Sea parallel along our southern Hispaniola shoreline.
Bill showed from the beginning all features of a big boy and did not change anything.
clear circulation, thunderstormactivities, even still not under top conditions and also with dry saharan air sucked in he is intensifying constantly, he will reach very favorable waters/conditions for a huge power increase during next week, wednesday on he will be a very big boy which we could not stand.
the models are united on his track, passing north of the northernmost Isles, near enough to mess our east coast ocean conditions, not close enough for anything else.
Bill will be a concern for the US East Coast, on such strength and path they can wander all the way up to Canadian waters.
for a extremely late season start the atlantic basin is quiet crowded now.
2 tropical storms, one to soon be a hurricane, a overnight appeared TD in the gulf of mexico hitting this afternoon and an other low on the eastern side of the sunny state.
and Bill and Ana may clear the highway from dry saharan air for further family members on the run.
let's hit that beach
Sea is completely flat today
Mike
When the first TS hits, I want to be sharing beers and stories with Mike. With a cooler filled with frios and enough chips to outlast the storm, it's the way things should be.
that's named Island life, David, he he.
but just a cooler would not be enough precaution, i always store a full fridge, you never know when you get a chance to refill, lol.
Mike