Hurricane Season 2011

Olly

Bronze
Mar 12, 2007
1,914
104
63
We have had about 3.5 " rain ( based on our amature rain guage) out of this tropical wave in the last three days here on the north coast between Cabarete and Puerto Plata. Been generally overcast with some bright spots. What have you had in Punta Cana Mike - the weather guru!!!

HTH
Olly
 

CG

Bronze
Sep 16, 2004
1,033
185
63
Near Las Terrenas, heavy rain last night, more or less a nice morning, heavy rains coming and going this afternoon with a bit of strong wind at times. At the moment, some close lightning and thunder, lightning & thunder in the distance, drizzling and very very grey. There you have it.
 

Chuck T

Banned
Nov 30, 2010
723
4
0
Now this weather site is coming to life, Mike, you gonna be busy man. lol Hey Mike, I've never heard of a Black Fin, where are they built ? I'm familiar with the Silverton, good boat. Any serious fishing and especially tournaments usually require a run to the gulf stream here. As my boat was ( I just sold her) a 26' Nonsuch cat-rigged sailer, most of my fishing was either trolling and hoping or just from the end of the boat at the marina. We catch many sea trout , spot tail bass and flounder though so I eat good but no trophies. Have a great evening all of you. and for anyone who gives a hoot, it's blistering hot in the carolinas with high humidity.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
we had an other shower with thunder and lightning here this eve, and after a 20 minutes power out after the first we are without electricity since the 2nd, many hours now.
I called friends up in Veron and they7 did not have power neither, looks like something on the mainline, sure a freakin Yellow Bus Driver caught a Power Pole again, lol.
Battery on the comkputer is near zero, so the Mrs is packing the Hammocks and we will sleep down on da Beach in front of the Door.
our Boy (16) and the Niece(14) are already down, they had to carry the cold drinks.
no Ceiling fans and no A/C, not the best to sleep up here in da house.

our Baby sure will love it when she wake's up in the morning on Her beloved Beach instead of the baycrib.

cheers from under the Stars

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
even 90L is all over for our Island, and the National Hurricane Center calls it Dead,
I do noty agree on such.
IMHO it is just down due high windshears and the Interaction with high Mountains/rough Terrain with Puerto Rico first, then Hispaniola and today with Cuba,
but it still exists and it will reach the Hot Waters of the Gulf, after touching the next rough terrain Yucatan firstly.

if it crosses theer the Bay of Campeche first it will not have enough Time over water to grow up significantly and will bring just some Rain and Wind to the Mexican eastshores, as it moves forwards very quick.
if it does the Northward Turn as only 1 Model shows it will slow down and have 2-3 days over the Hot waters of the Gulf before touching Base with the Southern US Gulf Coast, depending on the Present windshear at that moment it still could become something 'significant', but anyways not here on our Soil.

around the lil Sunny islae actually all looks well,
here on the east we are calm today, wind just around 10, partly maybe 12mphrs, nice warm and Dry.

as for the Highway, Conditions start to move and get ready for their usual August/September Powers.
we have actually on the Southern Track of Midhighway a Tropical Wave with Potential walking towards the Southamerican Continent/Southern Caribbean Sea, chances to develop such are very low as it is very close to the Equator, so it will not get much of a Spi down there if any.

the 2nd is a Tropical Wave twhich left the West African Continent just Today, running on the Middle Lane(yes, that's the One which leads the Boys and Gals to our Soil, or nearby), it is too young to estimate potential, til now just a Tropical Wave on it's way searching for some cooler Breeze to Interact with and make a Stormy Baby.
by the end of the week we will see if it get's powers or if it may not be mentioned again.

til now no danger out there for our shores

cheers

Mike
 

Chuck T

Banned
Nov 30, 2010
723
4
0
thanks again Mike . and while I think of it, is your north coast (RD) less prone to hurricanes than the rest of your sunny isle ?
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
temps on 31C
Humidity only high 60's today
a beautiful beach day.

Chuck,
I am NOT on the Northshore,
I am in Cabeza de Toro and Cap Cana/Punta Cana, that's the Dominican East Shores.

cheers

Mike
 

Chuck T

Banned
Nov 30, 2010
723
4
0
Mike, I'm aware of where you are however, you are the weather man. lol It matters not what shore you are on, just asking whether the North shore is less prone to hurricanes based on data. Cheers !!!
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
o.K.,
I understood that wrong.

specific spots on the North are so called Save Spots, like for example Luperon, Luperon is a Hurricane Hole, never received any Hit of what so ever, at least I did not find any report about such.

in General the Eastshore is the calmer/quieter/less in Danger Area, and the simple Reason can be seen on the Maps:
the Big Storms come from the Eastern Side, from the Highway, they get born far away on the Track between the African West Coast and the Antilles.
what ever comes in from there Hits first the smaller Island Belt in the Eastern Caribbean, they are not a Top Ranked Rough Terrain for real big Storms, but they are the First Interaction/Slow Down/Diection Change for any Storm, doesn't matter how strong. if such Storm is on it's Path towards Hispaniola it has to pass a bunch of smaller Islands and then it starts to Interact with the Greater Islands, which are the 4 biggest in the Caribbean, from East to West they are Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba. those Islands(a bit exception on Jamaica straight as it it much smaller than the Big 3) provide for Hurricanes real Rough Terrain, High Mountain Ranges, such bothers the Spin and Grow Up of Storms significantly.
so what ever big comes out of our East, it takes the smaller Antilles or the British and US Virgins first and then get's a first big Hit by Puerto Rico, located right on our East. a straight Hit there knocks down a Storm a lot, and even just a nearby bypass bothers a Storm a lot, and they try to get away from the rough Terrain and use the easier Way/Path, so they change Direction.
many move instead of overrunning PR and PC straight into the Caribbean Sea, no resistance there for a Storm, the opposite, the extra Hot Waters over the Caribbean Sea feed the Storms with even more Powers, so most walk straight into there and along our Southshores, hence during Hurricane Season the Caribbean Southshores of the DR are much rougher/less calm on average than the Atlantic Waters in Punta Cana.
and the ones of the Storms who do not like the southern Route get usually their Drift to pass the Islands (PR and Hispaniola alike) on a WNW'ern Tracking, so they pass close to Samana and the Northshore of the DR.
that such Storm turns on it's way southwards and Hits the Northshore of the DR straight would be a rare exception, their usual Track is towards the Bahamas, Florida, the Carolinas or the more likely turn towards the North and then towards the NE out on open Sea where Bermuda would be the only lil Landmass in Danger, and they are really used to such up there, lol.

the ones running straight westward into the Caribbean Sea hide a high possibility of turning NW'wards on their Route, but usually not as long as they are in front of our Southshores, they need time and space for a Turn, so most likely such happens when they are south of Haiti or much more likely south of Cuba, often they reach the Gulf of Mexico before they Head NNW wards, which produces then those devastating Hits on the US Guf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and the Texan Gulf Coast.

in very very most cases when a Big Boy/Gal approaches from the Highway/East, then the Eastshore around Punta Cana stays in the middle of the 2 possible Routes,
hence we get very rarely anything else than a few days of $hitty weather out of the Big Mayor Hurricanes from the east here in PC.
the North shore get's on average more rough Days/rough Sea Conditions due bypassing Storms/not Hits, but Hits are up there a rarity, too.

as we are today on an other sunny perfect Beach Day here with around 30 family members on da Beach and overtaking the house all day long I did this afternoon not even check any weather maps to see what is actual for today.
tonight I will do so, right now it is the Hammock here watching all those sweet Bikinis around and touching the Laptop together with my BabyGirl, ha ha.

cheers

Mike
 

Chuck T

Banned
Nov 30, 2010
723
4
0
Mike , great explanation when even I the novice can pretty much understand . Enjoy your guests, hammock, baby girl, bikinis and maybe some wine ? lol good fishing . Cheers from the Carolinas. ( hot but free of storms ) ( so far )lol
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
too early for a good Wine,
Beach with the Gals is Beer Time, Ice Cold cans of Presi are thye best for the Beach, they need little storage space, so You can pack a lot in the cooler along with a pack of Ice to keep 'em ready, ha ha.

the Carolinas,
as usual You went there already 1:0 ahead of Us Caribe?os, as You had Tropical Storm Bret in front of the Homedoor, which luckily took a Northern and then Northeastern turn pout to Open Sea due a Trough coming down from the USA SE'ern Mainland, would have been otherwise a nice early 'warm up' for the season.
and as usual by the end of the Season the Carolinas/SE US will beat Us again by many Scores, he he, you are too close to Florida to not be part of the Tropical Storm/Hurricane Hotspot, while We are down here the Observers of the game and just once in a long while get some Balls to enter the game, lol.

Wine is for the Night Time Hours on the Veranda or on the Pier, when most of the 'hood is sleeping,
my prefered Time to write and work and enjoy a Glass of Wine.
da Night will approach sooon, jejeje

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Hello Weather Forum World.

so my "guessed" path and Development for the 'dead' named 90L seems to come true.

the Hurricane Hunters are sheduled for a Invest Flight into 90L this afternoon at 2PM,
I am pretty sure they will declare at at least a Tropical depression, itshould become a Tropical Storm during this afternoon/today, forming right off Cancun.
surroundings are quiet very favorable actually on the Track to allow Development while wandering the Hot Surface of the Gulf of Mexico, the Texan Gulf Borders are at this Moment the most likely destin for a Hit, final Powers can still not be estimated, it needs to be watched during tonight to get the real Idea about the final forward speed and heading, so the Time to grow Up before Landfall give's the accurate forecast about to be awaited Windpowers.

for Our own Isle we are fine today, some isolated Areas here on the Eastshores should receive some short showers during this afternoon from early on, but very most of the Moisture out of the East will pass South of Punta Cana along the Southshores.
where the Rain is close by also the Wind will pick up gusting around 20mphr, away from the Rain Araes it will stay Calm for a great Beachday.

Out of the East nothing special expected for the remainder of the Week, but with several Moistured Areas out there it is always possible that something Pops Up surprisingly without a forwarning.

Mike
 

Chuck T

Banned
Nov 30, 2010
723
4
0
Mike, I just came back fro wally world for groceries, I melted, doin a cold one now. I'm jealous !
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
the Southern Mona Channel is now under Rain, some will spread into southern Punta Cana, too, at least it's quiet close, but nothing special, not some Kinda Thunderstorm or anything brewing.

Invest 90L should be announced Tropical depression TD#4 any moment this afternoon and it almost "sure"(as sure as one could be on a weather prediction, lol) will be the next Tropical Storm of this Young Season, wandering and growing through the Gulf of Mexico.

nothing special on our side of da water,
aside of a lot of Moisture wandering over the Central Antilles NW'wards.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
13,896
2,486
113
Punta Cana/DR
www.mikefisher.fun
Yes,
a strong TS or a weak Cat1 Cyclone for the Area of the SouthCentral Texan Coastline should be the Case before Midnight tomorrow/Friday Night.
the TS still wanders quick forward, cut's down it's Powergaining Times over favorable Waters.
actually no Trough around which could slow the forward speed down, such would help with Intensification.
strong TS should not be a big problem fo9r that Area which is used to much tougher Winds and Waters.

here on the East Shores We are on the same Situations as prior Described,
most Rain over the Channel is passing on our South, some short showers with lil Windy Gusts are possible in some Areas as we had some during this Afternoon, but nothing of Concern/nothing special, tomorrow we should Face an other Beachday.

keep da Greenies cold

Mike