2015 Hurricane Season

[MikeFisher]

darn,
see it just now, and we posted at the same time also, lol.
it is Tropical Depression #4 for the season.
it def is a TD on the edge for a TS, that name will follow soon.

Mike

 

[tcast305]

Mike,

Yeap, finally something to track. I've been following it since it was classified a pouch. We will see if its possible to reach the forecast winds with the way the season as been so far.

Thanks.

 

[MikeFisher]

here's a shot on it from 45 minutes ago

the spinning Center is located around 11North and 36West.
so it just started to be on favorable soil to produce more Spin.
windshear is on the maps shown as very low.


this one should autoupdate and show it almost "live" all the time.
the Time shown below is in GMT,
so for DR you take that Time minus 4hrs, to get actual DR time

 

[windeguy]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...gthen-could-become-tropical-depression-today/

This one has a chance of reaching the vicinity of the DR.

 

[tcast305]

TD4 has been reclassified to TS Danny, update at 5PM:

AL, 04, 2015081818, , BEST, 0, 108N, 370W, 35, 1008, TS

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Do you think I should I stop doing the rain dance now?

 

[Kipling333]

I have never seen the Caribbean so high and the water so warm as at present so I cannot see any correlation between this and rain ...it should be pouring at present if the correlation was valid

 

[donP]

Keep on dancing!

Do you think I should I stop doing the rain dance now?

No! :bunny:

donP

 

[Cdn_Gringo]

Using cloud cover and the type of clouds that I have seen recently, there has been a change in the atmosphere. I'm no meteorologist but do know that dust content, upper level winds etc do have an effect on the amount of moisutre available to form puffy moisture laden clouds.

Often clouds drop their moisture but it evaporates before reaching the ground. Whatever conditions prevented good old rain storms from developing seems to be waning. More clouds, more moisture we seem to be inching closer to a rain event, but I have absolutely no idea when that will be or how long it will last.

 

[donP]

Keep on dancing!

... Whatever conditions prevented good old rain storms from developing seems to be waning. More clouds, more moisture we seem to be inching closer to a rain event, but I have absolutely no idea when that will be or how long it will last.

Entonces,........ :bunny:

[video=youtube;VeEs6e0FdwU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeEs6e0FdwU[/video]


donP

 

[MikeFisher]

TD4 has been reclassified to TS Danny, update at 5PM:

AL, 04, 2015081818, , BEST, 0, 108N, 370W, 35, 1008, TS

a 5PM update at 3:18PM?
in what time zone are ya?

Mike

 

[tcast305]

Mike,

Once the best track is updated from LO to TS its been reclassified to Tropical Storm. Best tracks are updated at different times than Advisories from the NHC:

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

The convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued
to improve since the previous advisory, including the development of
interlocking curved convective cloud bands and the formation of an
upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern. Passive microwave images
indicate that the cyclone has a well-developed low- and mid-level
structure. The intensity has been increased to 35 kt based on a
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and a
UW-CIMMS ADT estimate of T2.5/35 kt. As a result, the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Danny on this advisory.

The initial motion estimate remains 280/11 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The
global and regional models remain in good agreement on Danny moving
west-northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
located along 45W longitude for the next 72 hours. After that time,
however, there is some spread in the model guidance based on how
much and how soon the ridge builds back in to the north of Danny.
The UKMET retains the weakness in the ridge longer, taking the
cyclone northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In contrast, the ECMWF
model strengthens the ridge sooner, which drives Danny more westward
and considerably faster at 96 and 120 hours. The GFS poorly
initialized Danny this morning, and it is noticeably slower than
all of the available model guidance and, therefore, has been given
much less weight on this forecast cycle. The official forecast track
is faster than the consensus model TVCN due to the much slower GFS
model inducing a significant slow bias in the model consensus, and
is roughly a blend of the ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS-Ensemble mean
forecast solutions.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions surrounding Danny are expected
to be favorable for slow but steady strengthening throughout the
forecast period. The only inhibiting factor appears to be dry
mid-level air located to the north and west of Danny occasionally
getting entrained into the circulation. However, the low vertical
wind shear regime that Danny will be migrating through should allow
the convective structure of the cyclone to steadily increase in
organization, which should enable the circulation to quickly mix out
any dry air intrusions. The official intensity forecast is similar
to but slightly lower than the intensity consensus model IVCN
through 96 hours, and near the LGEM intensity model at 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 10.9N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 11.2N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 11.6N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 12.0N 41.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 12.5N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 13.4N 46.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 13.9N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 14.5N 54.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

 

[MikeFisher]

that's all fine with me,
to me it could have been a TS from the beginning, without the babystep of some hrs TD ranking.

but still,
how can they by 3PM AST tell a 5PM update?
i don't get that time zone thingy on the discussion,
that's what drives me nuts,
and honestly, i still don't get it, lol.
it is still just 4:37PM AST NOW,
and that 5PM AST announcement been from 90 minutes ago.

but nevermind.
nothing of that has any influence or shows any changes of the brewing storm.
by it's today's shown improvements under not best surroundings but under lowest windshear,
it could become a Cat1 Hurricane within 24hrs and even well less of time.
let it pass the 50"W margin, to get an idea about what's it all about.

looks like a big and bad attempt of Mom Nature by now.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

that Danny def is a Male, as it looks Smart.
it runs in a lil loophole surrounded by otherwise bad stuff for a storm.
it's forward speed is slowing down,
that will allow to get less dry, as it has more time to moisture it's actually very dry and dusty surroundings in the mid atmosphere. such increases powers, so central pressure will drop, storm power increase.
still weak, should allow it to get pushed a bit upwards on the maps, WNW'wards, growing strong under low to zero windshear.
it will reach high windshear closer to the islands, and in this specifdic case, that could be very bad, as it should be a grown Hurricane by that time, a smart one which uses that windshear for oiling it's windmovements, strengthening the upper level outflow, to become even bigger.
let it reach the half way point of da Highway, around the 45thW, it could be already bad by then, and walking over the 50thW would be about the time when the pushing winds E-W are awaited to assist a faster forward move, which would be a straight to the Islands Move. at that point it will also reach warmer waters, they anyways get warmer on it's way westward-hooo.
from loophole to loophole to loophole, telling the weather froggies ""El Ni?o my arse"", lol.

MIke

 

[ju10prd]

Definitely want 'Danny' to keep travelling slowly westwards.

Thankfully I skipped flying back from a 2 day business trip to the Leewards this weekend using PAWA and chose a more reliable carrier.......and not risk the chance of being delayed as the likely hurricane advances.

Worth watching the track of this one once past the islands for sure.........but that is for next week.

 

[ju10prd]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/tropical-storm-Danny?map=ensmodel

Early ensemble models but worth watching in 'hurricane alley'

 

[tcast305]

Some more models for TS Danny, it should continue to update automatically. Reminder, the following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.

 

[PCMike]

This year I am going to wait until 4 hours prior to make any assumptions. These charts and graphs have been highly inaccurate over the past 5 years and generally lead to a bunch of wasted concern. Too bad...because when they finally get it right...many will not be ready.

 

[ju10prd]

Some more models for TS Danny, it should continue to update automatically. Reminder, the following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.

I like the ones that shy north of all the islands lol.

Sadly the consensus is not with them.....so we watch daily.........for those updates

 

[Hillbilly]

With the current drought situation in over 2/3rds of the country, I am praying that we get a lot of rain.

However, thinking on this one has to worry about the ability of the watersheds to channel and absorb
a lot of this water without major flooding of populated areas.

Considering the levels of 85% of the nation's reservoirs, let the water fall, please. And keep fingers crossed
regarding "collateral damage"...

Great work guys...good to see so many participants with such good information.


HB,,,,,,