lol
we can take it for granted to not get any girlie named Caitlyn raining down on me this year
Mike
- Thread starter Olly
- Start date
2015 Hurricane Season
- Status
lol
we can take it for granted to not get any girlie named Caitlyn raining down on me this year
Mike
TS Erika.
an other model run is out and they stay devided in 2 non agreeing Camps.
the reason why some models bring the TS more north and others on a more southern route, is easy.
the 2 Camps calculate on different development/growing powers of the Storm.
the ones which see it staying week for the next couple days, bring it on a more southerly tracking towards the Islands,
the others which calculate on a soon restrengthening of the Storm, bring it on a more northern route to the northernmost corner of the Islandbelt.
both are correct, considering their tracking according to their expectations about the Storm's powers.
during this afternoon it was struggling a lot under injected dry air from the mid atmosphere,
not nice formed, no concentrated powerful Thunderstorm areas,
the north cut off by windshear on the N and NW'ern quadrants,
on the edge to get downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
since the 5PM updates the Storm seems to stabilize.
central pressure is still on high 1006mb,
max winds 35knots,
but center and southern portions look more in a common swing again.
no quick development possible under the given circumstances, but not dead at all, yet.
it still runs on that high speed 20+mphr forward.
doesn't look like something to be concerned about,
tho it would be interesting to know how much of water is carried in such struggling system,
like some measurement of how many inches of rain per hour it could dump down if meeting a Landmass while slowing down significantly due the encounter of Land.
hunter aircraft data shows it Heading on 280 degrees/WWNW.
maybe the midnight updates bring something together
Mike
an other model run is out and they stay devided in 2 non agreeing Camps.
the reason why some models bring the TS more north and others on a more southern route, is easy.
the 2 Camps calculate on different development/growing powers of the Storm.
the ones which see it staying week for the next couple days, bring it on a more southerly tracking towards the Islands,
the others which calculate on a soon restrengthening of the Storm, bring it on a more northern route to the northernmost corner of the Islandbelt.
both are correct, considering their tracking according to their expectations about the Storm's powers.
during this afternoon it was struggling a lot under injected dry air from the mid atmosphere,
not nice formed, no concentrated powerful Thunderstorm areas,
the north cut off by windshear on the N and NW'ern quadrants,
on the edge to get downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
since the 5PM updates the Storm seems to stabilize.
central pressure is still on high 1006mb,
max winds 35knots,
but center and southern portions look more in a common swing again.
no quick development possible under the given circumstances, but not dead at all, yet.
it still runs on that high speed 20+mphr forward.
doesn't look like something to be concerned about,
tho it would be interesting to know how much of water is carried in such struggling system,
like some measurement of how many inches of rain per hour it could dump down if meeting a Landmass while slowing down significantly due the encounter of Land.
hunter aircraft data shows it Heading on 280 degrees/WWNW.
maybe the midnight updates bring something together
Mike
Only Drops in Saman?
Disappointing, yes.
We only got a bit of a drizzle and a few drops this afternoon. :ermm:
donP
Disappointing, yes.
We only got a bit of a drizzle and a few drops this afternoon. :ermm:
donP
The 5 a.m. Advisory
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 56.0 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center
of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands
tonight and move near the Virgin Islands on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 56.0 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center
of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands
tonight and move near the Virgin Islands on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Tropical Storm Erika seems to show the tendency of it's own Masterplan, and that does not look any nice.
during the last 8hrs the Storm did not change much,
BUT the shown changes indicate the tendency towards it is moving.
max sustained winds on 40Knots, rising
Central Pressure dropped by 3mb to 1003mb, dropping
forward speed dropped to 18mphr, dropping
all those factors show together taht a weak storm did pass it's struggles and is on the rise
and TS Erika shows it visibly.
this morning we see a very wide area of Thunderstorms nicely in order around a well defined center.
it will manage to keep further influence of dry air injected to a minimum or even shut the doors against the influence completely.
the overall size did scale down very little, but moves now well together.
TS StormForce winds reach already more than 100miles off the Center, before reaching te islands this could reach double of the distance as Hurricane Danny managed during it's peak times as a Cat3 Storm.
Erika is def as a strong TS or lower scale Cat1 Storm much more dangerous than Danny would have been at a Cat3 Landfall.
the tracking models did not significantly change their "opinions".
Erika will slowly but constantly grow, so the since days shown northern route is the most likely path, shown by the models who saw it growing, they seem to be the correct calculating ones.
this one could be a very close encounter for Puerto Rico, which would be a partly saver for the us-SE shores.
the stronger Erika gets before touching the first Islands, the more NE she will pass off Puerto Rico
and the same time the less bothered by the natural storm enemy, the rough terrain of PR.
looks like we are very well in the count on Hispa?iola, to have a upper scale Tropical Storm wandering close along our NE and then the northshores towards the Bahamas.
due it's big size, such storm wandering near the coast send high powers over land and wet very wide areas with well more than what we prayed for during all 2015 so far.
IF the Storm passes over and along the Islands on this predicted path as a strong Tropical Storm, means it becomes a Scary Force for the US Mainland on the SE, with Central/North Florida in the center of the action.
a strong TS approaching the Bahamas is always something to watch out for, of any size, because those hot waters and favorable winds there do almost always kick up Storm Development by a few notches for higher intensifying speed than shown further East.
the long range models do not develop any strong through capable of turning a strong big storm northwards or even NE out to Sea. Stering currents are expected to stay for many days on the shown WNW'ern paths til touchdown, where every that may be.
here we see this morning's well defined "Look" of a healthy and rising Storm.
this observation Loop is the one to estimate Windpowers.
black are very tough winds, they are present all around without a hole on the nice round Centerform,
and the White Center is the Highest Windforces on scale, they are present in a closed wide Center Area.
once we see a "Grey" circle within the White High Power Center, means the Storm forms/formed a Eye and built up a Eyewall, hence the then "calm" area within the Thunder Rolling Center.
so development will be slow due the size of high powers to improve together,
but that also means this process could run slow but constantly and almost unbothered by influences from the outside.
from now on we watch the news every couple hours for any changes
Mike
during the last 8hrs the Storm did not change much,
BUT the shown changes indicate the tendency towards it is moving.
max sustained winds on 40Knots, rising
Central Pressure dropped by 3mb to 1003mb, dropping
forward speed dropped to 18mphr, dropping
all those factors show together taht a weak storm did pass it's struggles and is on the rise
and TS Erika shows it visibly.
this morning we see a very wide area of Thunderstorms nicely in order around a well defined center.
it will manage to keep further influence of dry air injected to a minimum or even shut the doors against the influence completely.
the overall size did scale down very little, but moves now well together.
TS StormForce winds reach already more than 100miles off the Center, before reaching te islands this could reach double of the distance as Hurricane Danny managed during it's peak times as a Cat3 Storm.
Erika is def as a strong TS or lower scale Cat1 Storm much more dangerous than Danny would have been at a Cat3 Landfall.
the tracking models did not significantly change their "opinions".
Erika will slowly but constantly grow, so the since days shown northern route is the most likely path, shown by the models who saw it growing, they seem to be the correct calculating ones.
this one could be a very close encounter for Puerto Rico, which would be a partly saver for the us-SE shores.
the stronger Erika gets before touching the first Islands, the more NE she will pass off Puerto Rico
and the same time the less bothered by the natural storm enemy, the rough terrain of PR.
looks like we are very well in the count on Hispa?iola, to have a upper scale Tropical Storm wandering close along our NE and then the northshores towards the Bahamas.
due it's big size, such storm wandering near the coast send high powers over land and wet very wide areas with well more than what we prayed for during all 2015 so far.
IF the Storm passes over and along the Islands on this predicted path as a strong Tropical Storm, means it becomes a Scary Force for the US Mainland on the SE, with Central/North Florida in the center of the action.
a strong TS approaching the Bahamas is always something to watch out for, of any size, because those hot waters and favorable winds there do almost always kick up Storm Development by a few notches for higher intensifying speed than shown further East.
the long range models do not develop any strong through capable of turning a strong big storm northwards or even NE out to Sea. Stering currents are expected to stay for many days on the shown WNW'ern paths til touchdown, where every that may be.
here we see this morning's well defined "Look" of a healthy and rising Storm.
this observation Loop is the one to estimate Windpowers.
black are very tough winds, they are present all around without a hole on the nice round Centerform,
and the White Center is the Highest Windforces on scale, they are present in a closed wide Center Area.
once we see a "Grey" circle within the White High Power Center, means the Storm forms/formed a Eye and built up a Eyewall, hence the then "calm" area within the Thunder Rolling Center.
so development will be slow due the size of high powers to improve together,
but that also means this process could run slow but constantly and almost unbothered by influences from the outside.
from now on we watch the news every couple hours for any changes
Mike
Last edited:
Pouring rain in Cabrera!!! (And quite a lot overnight as well!)
.....
Pouring rain in Cabrera!!! (And quite a lot overnight as well!)
Thanks for the update Hippo....
happy to hear that
donP... bring your bucket to Cabrera.......
MoFo's,
i did not get a single drop, nada, zip, zero.
"?%"?%&%$"
the forecasts changed all now, due you guys making me jealous.
Erika will not wipe out the darn Ocean World in Orlando anymore.
she is guaranteed to walk straight over Puerto Rico, taking down the doppler radar station which send the water to Cabrera and Samana, weakens down to a small tropical depression and by sunday arrives as a 3 squaremiles thundering raincloud a few miles north of Cabo Enga?o, stalling out right over my beach and raining down on me for 10 consecutive hours, getting all my palmtrees a buzz for a week.
and i will send you selfies of the Fisherman and his Cloud, sitting on the beach in the middle of strong rain, sipping some cuba libres and making you jealous 'cause i got more water than you guys did.
watch out for the changes on the forecasts.
you will remember my word.
Fu"?$%?$ N-coasters
lol
Mike
i did not get a single drop, nada, zip, zero.
"?%"?%&%$"
the forecasts changed all now, due you guys making me jealous.
Erika will not wipe out the darn Ocean World in Orlando anymore.
she is guaranteed to walk straight over Puerto Rico, taking down the doppler radar station which send the water to Cabrera and Samana, weakens down to a small tropical depression and by sunday arrives as a 3 squaremiles thundering raincloud a few miles north of Cabo Enga?o, stalling out right over my beach and raining down on me for 10 consecutive hours, getting all my palmtrees a buzz for a week.
and i will send you selfies of the Fisherman and his Cloud, sitting on the beach in the middle of strong rain, sipping some cuba libres and making you jealous 'cause i got more water than you guys did.
watch out for the changes on the forecasts.
you will remember my word.
Fu"?$%?$ N-coasters
lol
Mike
the power ofpositive thinking is how we did it in Cabrera..... not cabeza....
use the cabeza for cabrera......
glug, glug, glug...... I'm drowning......or would be if I was there....
please pass the snorkel.........
hahahaha
use the cabeza for cabrera......
glug, glug, glug...... I'm drowning......or would be if I was there....
please pass the snorkel.........
hahahaha
not funny.... here on Lake Huron the high will be 63 today...... bad .....about 16-17C
better in a few days...............bbbrrrrrrrrr
better in a few days...............bbbrrrrrrrrr
i could have given you nice comfy low humid 25C,
but you did not behave nice.
when i visited last year for the 2 months of october and november the Grannyies in germany with my babydaughter,
it was my first wintertime visit in 4 or 5 years.
towards the end of our 2nd month temps did drop during the night on -4C and did not pass +5C during the days.
luckily my Baby been not bothered at all, hey, it's a Female thingy,
she got all those new clothes for the cold german time, which female of any age does not like that, she played outside every day and did not get the slightest bit of a cold or what so ever bad thingy.
and ME??
i found out quickly that i def have blended in to the Tropical Climate much too well.
i spent a full week with a hefty flu.
from 2016 on it will be yearly 2 months germany during the summer break exclusively.
nothing under 25C(max drops to 22C during the coldest time of the night) could tease me out of anywhere anymore.
who the heck was that guy up on highest elevations of the Rockies around Wyoming on horseback, alone, learning about what a darn Blizzard feels like?? must have been a few reincarnations ago or so, lol.
during jan and early feb i often turn the heater on to have a hot shower.
i will never tell my parents or sisters about it, they would get me in a white jacket for that.
Mike
but you did not behave nice.
when i visited last year for the 2 months of october and november the Grannyies in germany with my babydaughter,
it was my first wintertime visit in 4 or 5 years.
towards the end of our 2nd month temps did drop during the night on -4C and did not pass +5C during the days.
luckily my Baby been not bothered at all, hey, it's a Female thingy,
she got all those new clothes for the cold german time, which female of any age does not like that, she played outside every day and did not get the slightest bit of a cold or what so ever bad thingy.
and ME??
i found out quickly that i def have blended in to the Tropical Climate much too well.
i spent a full week with a hefty flu.
from 2016 on it will be yearly 2 months germany during the summer break exclusively.
nothing under 25C(max drops to 22C during the coldest time of the night) could tease me out of anywhere anymore.
who the heck was that guy up on highest elevations of the Rockies around Wyoming on horseback, alone, learning about what a darn Blizzard feels like?? must have been a few reincarnations ago or so, lol.
during jan and early feb i often turn the heater on to have a hot shower.
i will never tell my parents or sisters about it, they would get me in a white jacket for that.
Mike
I don't like that Erika.
it keeps the good looking shape,
pressure dropped an other 1mb the last couple hrs
windforce stays on 45knots, maybe even a notch more by now.
the models come run by run closer together
and show it very close to our backyards.
a good shaped slow but constantly improving Storm.
it is a big one, even that winds classify it as a TS.
I like Danny much more.
Mike
Mike
it keeps the good looking shape,
pressure dropped an other 1mb the last couple hrs
windforce stays on 45knots, maybe even a notch more by now.
the models come run by run closer together
and show it very close to our backyards.
a good shaped slow but constantly improving Storm.
it is a big one, even that winds classify it as a TS.
I like Danny much more.
Mike
Mike
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