2016 Hurricane Season

jstarebel

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Oct 4, 2013
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why?
the FB link shows a bunch of stu's getting scared about clouds 3-4000 miles away from their us-based home?, lol.
the wunderground link shows what i wrote about today, nothing new.
the waves will keep popping off the african coast, as they always do this time of the year.
some of them will become storms, some the usual bigger storms.
and also as usual, til they are grown up bad boys/gals, we will not know what direction/final destin they may aim to.
Fiona could grow bigger and move all the time far away from any land.
and she could(what i expect) not strengthen much and keep her actual Track NW'wards, dead long before near any Island, and anyways staying too far out to have any influence.
the wave at the Cape Verde's they show as told as a system that wanders westward towards the Tropical Pastures of ours.
what ever it will be, it's too early to guess.
it could be anything from a non existing cloudy windfree thingy up to a Mayor Hurricane, lol.
and the wave expected to hit Atlantic Waters on saturday, well, we at least hhave to wait til it hit water and is developing something the first couple days over water, or not, whatsoever.

til now, nothing bad out there.
but again, that time of the year just started, we have a couple months ahead of us now to watch out for all those cloudies.

Mike

I was unaware you spoke earlier about this new low. My mistake. However, I'm stuck in a lousy place to be for a blow with a stuck exhaust valve and popping out the intake manifold, so I'm a tad jumpy. Also, this one came off low at latitude 10. I get worried when they come off low like this, and having an engine issue just makes things worse. Thankfully I still have sails to make for a hurricane hole with if needed. Thanks Mike.
 

MikeFisher

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I was unaware you spoke earlier about this new low. My mistake. However, I'm stuck in a lousy place to be for a blow with a stuck exhaust valve and popping out the intake manifold, so I'm a tad jumpy. Also, this one came off low at latitude 10. I get worried when they come off low like this, and having an engine issue just makes things worse. Thankfully I still have sails to make for a hurricane hole with if needed. Thanks Mike.

the famous lil triangle Sail and all sealed down to have fun in the sealed cabin.
sound's like real Sailor's joy, lol.
good luck for the season.
and yes, coming that low on the Maps is what comes our ways, what ever it may be, but they are coming our directions then.
did ya choose the "lousy place" or stuck there by higher forces?

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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here is the Floater observing the one SW of the Cape Verde's.
on NOAA it is followed as Invest 99L.
quiet a power already on early stage.
conditions are not top but neither bad for development.
we will see how it looks at the end of the weekend.

vis-animated.gif
 

MikeFisher

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so 's up out there on the Highway this beautiful sunny sunday?
TS Fionawent as expected and is runnign uninhabited Atlantic Waters.
last night it experienced the typical night-fueling and reached her Top Powers of 50mphr with the central pressure dropping by 3 points to 1004mb.
the glorious times should be over for that very small Storm, she been this morning already back on rising pressure 1006mb and down to 45mphr max winds.
it already passed it's closest point to our soil, no influence to await from that one for our Paradise Isle.

Invest 90L, which newly hit Atlantic Waters,
looks til now large on size and not super powerful, but conditions are favorable there for development,
so it should be able to get organized and become TD7 by tomorrow.
from that positioning and developing into a Storm that early/far East the steering should bring it WNW'wards
and due that make it an other runner for the open Central Atlantic, the Graveyard.

Invest 99L is the one of Interest for all Islanders on the caribbean end of the Highway.
the area is not organized and barely any spin existant, as it is a very wide area of disturbed weather and running close to the 10th"N.
Thunderstorm activity and it's strongest rains run in the northern quadrant and in the southern quadrants.
those southern quadrants are located as far south as 5"N, too far south to get a good Spin.
there are 2 different scenarios in case of Tracking for the stormy area:
** the longer it takes to become a Storm/the weaker it stays, the closer it will come for the caribbean.
in that scenario it will stay on a westward Track and enter the caribbean Sea, wandering along the South or even Towards the S-shores of the greater Antilles.
it can collect quiet some loads of very heavy rains on it's way over here, so keep those waterpumps well maintained.
** itcut's off the bothering southern portion and build's a Storm out of it's actual center and northern quadrants.
due the smaller size and with the strong Thunderstorm activity present there, a Storm could develop fairly quick and grow on size again once organized.
as a strong Tropical Depression or low Tropical Storm it would change Tracking from West to more W-WNW.
as a strong Tropical Storm or even more, the Tracking would lead towards NW'ern directions.

so a early forming strong Storm would miss the Islands on their NW.
a weak system would bring heavy rains over the Island belt and very likely also to our Isle.
the "middle powers", a weak storm, should move close to or right over the northern Islands of the Belt,
it could pass close to our NE, too, but would leave us very likely on it's supposed dryer southern and western quadrants.

til now, nothing really bad to watch out for,
but we keep an eye on 99L, as it could become a very wet visitor for our grounds.

Mike

gtwo.php
 
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MikeFisher

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gooood monday morning.
a lil update from da Highway.

Fiona is dying as expected, she will not touch any land.

Invest 90L looks like a fully developed Storm and sure will get it's number/name within the next few hours.
it will then most likely be TD7 and move's WNW'wards, still on a tracking into nowhere.
of course that far away such is nothing certain, but it doesn't look like trouble for us.

Invest 99L stay's on the struggles.
the main reasons for no significant development are dry air and it's former large size.
the far southern portions are cut off the system, it concentrate's on what formerly been the northern quadrants.
i don't see significant development the next couple days, but then it should hit warmer waters which may fuel it enough to develop into a Storm after mid week.
tracking stays teh same as expected before the past weekend,
it is moving towards the NE'ern caribbean Sea/Northernmost Islands of the belt.
if it develops early enough it could pass the Islands near the NE,
but at the moment i would more await that it goes over the northern Islands into the northern section of the eastern caribbean Sea.
it sure will gather much more water prior to arrival, the dry air protection shield is working now between 500-1000 miles East of the Islands,
that effect will go down when closing in towards the Islands.
we have to keep watching this one.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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Fiona is a Ex-TS, never hurt a thing.

Tropical Storm Gaston, formed out of TD7/Invest 90L,
is a powerful Storm and should fairly quick develop further.
luckily it's Tracking is still pointing towards the open Central Atlantic Waters, the Graveyard is the most likely Destin.

Invest 99L, just a few hundred miles east of the Island belt, is closing in rapidly.
the system does not show any organization, but don't get fooled,
it is a very wide area of heavy thunderstorms and heaviest rainloads, nothing nice of any visitor.
it doesn't look that this large area could get organized and form a named Storm the next days while closing in to our Soil.
actual Tracking points towards the SE'ern Bahamas, missing us on our NE.
this one easily can pass us close enough to bring heavy rains to portions of the Island, but that could change quickly.
it is the one to keep monitored, who lives vulnerable to water/floods should keep a very close eye on it's tracking and most likely soon get da Cattle ready.

Mike
 

jstarebel

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Oct 4, 2013
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Wunderground gives it a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday and only a 60% chance to Develop into a TD by Sunday. Hurricane hunters based in St. Croix flew into the storm today noting little to no circulation but lots of rain. It also looks to be tracking straight for the NC of the DR so it looks like some much needed rainfall for the NC.
 

MikeFisher

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Wunderground gives it a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday and only a 60% chance to Develop into a TD by Sunday. Hurricane hunters based in St. Croix flew into the storm today noting little to no circulation but lots of rain. It also looks to be tracking straight for the NC of the DR so it looks like some much needed rainfall for the NC.

yeah, exactly, it looks like a big rainload with heavy winds in the wide TS-areas.
yes, the most liekly tracking is to pass the Islands on the NE, i don't think it will come towards any coastline of our Isle,
but the northcoast will be the closest.
how close is hard to tell by now, it may stay well far out from us.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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here you see where the waterloads are located.
the surroundings of the system are dry saharan aimasses, the prime reason why no storm did form out of it.
99L wet's the pavement, but does itself not produce aquaplaning, lol.

wv-animated.gif


Mike
 

MikeFisher

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vis-animated.gif


this is what the bases for a fine Storem construction look's like.
it is TS Gaston.
with the right surrounding conditions of a wet pavement and a warm Sea surface reaching to good depth, this would transist into a nice Cape Verde Cyclone.
Gaston wandering in the wake of 99L's wet pavement would bring us a helllOfaPartytime on the Isle.

i just looked on the evening updates, which i did not see when typing the last posts above.
99L leave's the option open to wander straight over the northern Greater Antilles,
that could be PR and also Hispa?iola.
will be interesting to watch the tracking during tomorrow.

Mike
 

MikeFisher

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yes, it looks much more compact, seems to get "organized".
this 99L could become a TD or a TS at any moment, despite "not so favorable conditions" and touching Land.
named Storm or not, where it wanders thru it will dump a lot of water and provide heavy winds,
so we have to watch out for it.
here on the eastshores we already got the first rain pushed ahead of the system.
the bothering Heat is gone, lol. a fresh and rainy day today to get "in da mood",
then at some point we may get some real heavy rain, or not.
stay away from the typical flooding Riverportions and muddy hills.

Mike
 

windeguy

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Higher than normal hurricane season still expected

Forecasters now expect a 70-percent chance of 12?17 named storms, of which 5?8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2?4 major hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10?16 named storms, 4?8 hurricanes, and 1?4 major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes


http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/a...son-still-expected-to-be-strongest-since-2012