2019 Hurricane Season

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caribmike

Guest
We should better look out for the nxt thing coming our way. Dorian is history as far the DR (or this thread) is concerned.
 
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william webster

Guest
All reports indicate an 'active ' season.....

I have read/seen that in numerous opinions
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
Looks like Florida has the lucky weekend and may get nothing of the winds of Dorian, but i can imagine the storm surge alone of a 150mphr cyclone will be a challenge of its own.
Where it still could be very close to shore or on land is North Carolina.
The powers of the hurricane are on its eastern sides, so staying over wayer means there are no qindtroubles over land.
Our invest east if the Cape Verde Islands still shows nothing that would allow asumptions, we need more days to see a reliable pattern.
The NHC gives it already a 60% to become a cyclone within the next 5 days.
I mentioned before that this looks like a northwards runner, one that misses the caribbean on the NE or more likely runs NW to the hurricane graveyard mid atlantic.

It is way too early to be sure on such system, but at tjis moment i dont see anything moving those 3000 miles over our highway.
And anyways, it is sunny weekend.
We can leave that weather stuff for monday and in the meantime enjoy the nice sides if island life.
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
The atlantic basin and gulf of mexico are on a high active phase with all around favorable storm development conditions.
This high activity will continue and even get more active and the already favorable conditions will even go way better to the max/perfect conditions for storm development the next 10 days and then stay on such for many long weeks to come til late october.
Hurricane Dorian is the maximum powers super Cyclone moving very slowly straight west towatds the E of Florida.
On this slow speed it will bring min full 48hrs of max possible hurricane powers over the NWern Bahamas, the max possible destruction powers a tropical cyclpne could bring anywhere.
The forecasts turn it northwards before a landfall in FL, which would leave FL on the weaker and less far outreaching side if the storm but honestly, such powers "forecasted" to turn such close to a defenseless area like the whole Florida, i would not stay anywhere in Florida at this moment. A tad bit of an tracking error on that expected Turn would bring FL a devastation which never been seen anywhere on the us mainland. IF it goes on land there, then Andrew will become just a small harmless thing in the books under the new stats written by Dorian.
Lets hope that it turns as expected, but FL be empty before the moment when such turn may happen, because that state does not have the infrastructure to allow everybody to hop on a plane or drive far north all at once last minute.

The new disturbance between caribbean and bermuda we dont need to watch, as the tracking patterns there bring anything happening towards the north/away feom us.

The big disturbance far east will from a storm around the 15thN. That far east a storm already on the 15th will def be a graveyard runner, so no danger for us from there.

The sunday facit:
There are actuallu several stoems in the make/possibilities, but none that would become a threat for us, so qe can enjoy our super hit and extreme calm tropical sunday weather and also.many more days ahead of us.
Cheers
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
The invest W of Cape Verde is def a graveyard runner.
It should become a storm the next 48hrs but not affect any land.
We will this week also see a next disturbance SE of the Cape Verde Islands, of course we keep an eye on it, but by now no idea what it may become or which tracking it will get.
So for our island, all is fine.
Thay leaves time to look a bit on the other active systems
The one bwteen Bermuda and the caribbean looks strong enough to force Dorian to stay close to the US East Shores for the whole week this week. Hopefully it does not get strong enough to force Dorian over Land along the US Eastshores.
Dorian is actually destoying Grand Bahama and surroundings with maximim force, as it is almost stationary over the area. Reports show deads, to me it is unbelievable that humans not been forced to leave those islands, as this outcome was very likely/almost for sure since a couple days.
The devastation will last at least an other 15hrs, there will not be much left.
Doroan, qhile almost stationary, shows already the signs of the awaited turn towards NE.
The eyewall and the super wet area with 20+ inches waterloads is expected to stay over the ocean, but it is a extreme close call. Should the turn or the system near Bermuda bring Dorian just milimeters more W on the Map, then this dangerous area would touch northern FL and furthermore threaten SC. NC anyways is very close to get it, even on the expected turn. For NC then just as a Cat2, but one qith a high stormsurge in addition to wind and rainpowers.
As for FL and SC, the storm surge pushed ahead of time by Dorian, is a real Monster. The yclone moves very slow, so the ocean will batter the coastal areas there for a long time period without touching land.
Thise areas should be abandoned by humans. Once the waterloads start their game, the streets will be flooded and not allow a late way out.
If you live in coastel E Florida, lock your doors and take this week for a vacay elsewhere.
Giod luck and stay save.
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
No significant changes in the basin.
Tropical Storm Fernando goes to Mexico.
Hurricane Dorian turned and wanders close along the FL East and will continue its slow journey along GA and SC and then most likely bring the eye of a Cat1/2 hurricane over the NC Maritimes.
The storm surge is a monster, as Dorian moves slow and batters each area for very long hours.
It will very lilely stay a hurricane force til it almost reached the eastern Canuck Maritimes.
The Bermuda low is on a NE drifr and should move out to open waters away from Bermuda and not become a force that could press Dorian further West.
Tropical Depression 8 W of tje Cape Verde Islands formed and moves as expected, a graveyard runner qhu h will not threaten any land.
The Trooical Wave over western africa, to hit atlamtic waters around tomorrow evening/night, is moving on a line which coumd make it of interest to us. It wanders way soith of the path TD8 came from, so this coild be one on a westward track to become td9 after the weekend
So far no dangers near the Isle
 
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cavok

Guest
As for FL and SC, the storm surge pushed ahead of time by Dorian, is a real Monster. The yclone moves very slow, so the ocean will batter the coastal areas there for a long time period without touching land.


Lake Worth and Boynton Beach, just south of West Palm Beach, are already reporting flooding from the combination of the storm surge plus a King Tide. I'm sure some other areas to the north will be affected, too.
 
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ljmesg

Guest
Mike, this was pretty much spot on.

"On this slow speed it will bring min full 48hrs of max possible hurricane powers over the NWern Bahamas, the max possible destruction powers a tropical cyclpne could bring anywhere."
 
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mountainannie

Guest
Lake Worth and Boynton Beach, just south of West Palm Beach, are already reporting flooding from the combination of the storm surge plus a King Tide. I'm sure some other areas to the north will be affected, too.

I live west of Lake Worth and evacuated to my sister's place in Boynton Beach. We really had pretty much nothing except a few days of blissful low pressure which made for great sleeping. Perhaps there were wind gusts up to 40k but no significant damage to trees or power lines. I was at Lake Worth Beach today and that was pretty much spared much damage... Everyone here gets very concerned for the Turtle Egg nests which are staked and roped off like police crime scenes -- (I love the locals for that one). The major debris seemed to come from the flooding over the inland waterway which runs parallel to the barrier islands -- like Palm Beach..

The storm was closer to the coast in the counties north of Palm Beach - The Treasure Coast (as it is called - and the Space Coast is the term for the next patch to the North) -- that too seemed to be spared - https://www.tcpalm.com/story/weathe...rian-did-not-flood-treasure-coast/2203445001/

No worries for those on the barrier islands in the USA since mostly only the rich can live on them - and the locals - up in SC and NC who have been there for years - know how to handle themselves.

News today is that already 250k people have evacuated from SC beach areas....

From the look of its track now - Dorian may do some real damage up on the barrier islands in NC but most of that is national park... But we do have some precious horses on a barrier island off Virginia -- one does hope that THEY will be OK - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chincoteague_Pony

This storm is SOOOOOOooooo Slow...

The photos that are coming in from the Bahamas are devastating. I completely agree with Mike that humans ought to abadon such sand bars - the highest point on one of those islands was reported on the news as being 35 ft.... But it was also reported that the Bahamas is the 3rd richest place in the hemisphere - after the USA and Canada - plus they are British and will have all the resources of the Crown to help them.

The US Coast Guard and FEMA and all that are rolling in... but I am certain that Mr. Trump will forward the bill. Which would only be proper.

Here in the USA we have a Very Stupid Program of Federally mandated and subsidized flood insurance which keeps paying folks to the coast to REBUILD their homes in the exact same places. If it were private insurance -- only the super rich could afford it and it would be one of their 5 houses and we would not be facing the possibility of loss of life.
 
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rubio_higuey

Guest
That's a LOT of activity
What about Invest 2 ? Could that be a threat?


 
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TropicalPaul

Guest
Apologies for interrupting the discussion about insurance in the US and Canada, but getting back to hurricanes in the Dominican Republic for a second...

Mike what are your thoughts on Disturbance 3, I realise that it's just left Africa but any predictions? NHC is saying it has a 60% chance of formation in 5 days.
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
As promised, starting next week we will be on a hyper active phase lasting many weeks.
The basin is very active and the conditions for intense storm formations are already favorable and will get even better day by day now.
Here is a graph, which shows the running acrivity.
It is still too early to guess on powers and/or directions for the next one, but for some.weeks now i would await that we will always have at least one next one in the distance.
Later today or tomorrow i will have a look on the scene, but it will stay vague before next week.

View attachment 3155
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
finally we have chances to get some needed rainfall, even that chances are higher for PR than DR.
we have a Vaguada building up and a weak Tropical Wave moving things to the area of PR and DR.
moisture to relief a bit from drought conditions is present to get collected, so there is hope.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=pr&band=02&length=24

Invest 3, located already on the 18thN, will not become any threat. on that location it will miss the Caribbean on the NE and anyways chances are low to develop a storm out of it.

TS Gabrielle will most likely become a Hurricane, but it wanders the expected path and will not threaten any land.

Invest 2 lost size, as there is still no cyclonical behavior present, it missed to collect the present masses of moisture.
this one is centered on the 15thN West of the Cabo Verde Islands and should run mostly straight Westward.
on the long journey it will reach conditions to be expected very favorable mid-journey, so it is very likely to se a storm forming up there somewhere early/mid next week.
we will watch this one to see it's position early next week, which then will allow to guess on Tracking.
the highway is good moistured on that way, so if a storm forms up, it will have that present to be collected.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=02&length=24
 
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MikeFisher

Guest
this morning the NHC is downgrading the chances of development of the Disturbance W of the Cabo Verde Islands.
I see such as well too early, as it is now long enough over water to see a tracking consistency, and that is a straight West.
this Tropical Wave will reach the Caribbean, with or without stormy activity. after passing the 40/45thW the conditions over the western highway look good, so I would still await a formation to show up wednesday/thursday by actual forward speed.
size or powers can not be guessed on today, too many open ends on such long way.
an other reason for slightly discarding too much this wave, may be that the model runs focus more on the next wave, still over the african mainland, hitting atlantic waters this weekend.
as promised, the next long weeks will not get boring in case of active systems,
but at this moment there is no direct danger for us anywhere out there.
we just look and in the meantime enjoy a caribbean island weekend.
here on the East we will be on calmest/dead winds, beautiful calm Offshore Sea, for today not too many clouds. the late afternoons/early evenings around sunset will feel again very humid, as the last days already did.
the weak T-Wave missing the Islands, now positioned NE of the V-Islands, is bringing today some smaller rain clouds over the Islands East of PR, just a few to PR and most likely none to DR.
maybe we get lucky to catch some of it during tomorrow, as it moves NWwards passing our N far out, but i see it more likely missing us completely in case of seeked for rainfalls.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=pr&band=08&length=24

the awaited to form Vaguada looks much weaker than yesterday and as the disturbed weather in the SEern Caribbean Sea completely disappeared over night, that whole interaction will take place(if there will be any) further north, so a small Vaguada "may" form N/NE of PR over water. which direction is may move to bring rain is unknown. I think we stay simply the same dry as we are for this weekend, some clouds moving through and no wind to feel.

so lets get relief from the inside, I heard rumors that all Colmados are stocked up on ice cold refreshments
 
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tht

Guest
Gabrielle heading across the Atlantic over to Ireland if it keeps going. I know it's not DR related just an interesting phenomenon.

 
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