2019 Hurricane Season

Olly

Active member
Mar 12, 2007
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An update from Colorado State Researchers :

April 5, 2019 09:51AM PDT - Normal season ahead?
It is that time of the year again that Klotzbach et al., researchers at Colorado State issue their forecast of Atlantic Hurricane activity. They expect this season to be slightly below normal, with 13 named storms (12.1 is normal), 5 hurricanes (6.4 is normal) of which 2 become major (Category 3 or higher, 2.7 is normal). The probability for at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a large area) is 39% (42% is normal).

The big question mark is as usually if El Nino conditions occur this Summer, which suppresses hurricane formation and strengthening. Right now we are in an El Nino, and although models are all over the place, most predict that the El Nino will still be there later this year. Good for us! Also, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are a bit below normal, which is good as well.

They also issued an Excel spreadsheet with landfall probabilities for the Caribbean and Central America region. Below is the top 7 of the chance that at least one tropical storm (TS), hurricane (H) or major hurricane (MH) will track within 50 miles. I sorted the list by hurricane.

Region TS H MH
Bahamas, The 68% 41% 22%
Cuba 66% 40% 20%
Mexico 74% 40% 14%
Dominican Republic 40% 24% 8%
Haiti 35% 19% 9%
Antigua and Barbuda 32% 19% 7%
Cayman Islands 32% 19% 7%

As always, take these forecasts not too serious. They are not set in stone for sure, esp. the April forecast has modest skill. Nevertheless, it is nice to hear that it will probably be an about normal season, better than a forecast that predicts a highly active season. In any case, keep in mind that just one hurricane in your backyard will spoil your whole season! We still have to prepare as best as we can. A good time to start checking your hurricane shutters, possible flying/falling hazards around your house, emergency supplies, etc., is now.

Courtesy StormCarib - Thanks Gert https://stormcarib.com/

Olly and the Team
 
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MikeFisher

Well-known member
it is that time of the year again, so let's take a look on what we should expect for this 2019 Stormy Season.
this year is easy to describe, as under the line, it will be very similar/a weaker Twin of Last Season 2018.

the water temps and conditions are East of Us, on our famous Highway, Not in favor of quick development of any kind of tropical formation, so as we already saw last year under very similar conditions, all those numerous tropical waves and tropical systems popping up on the Highway, do not or only very slow develop/gain powers.
the Result:
when they reach our part of the planet, IF they survive the long way in the 1st place anyways, then they will not be any danger as long as lingering around here.
the same as last season, the Dangerous areas, where those systems of 2019 most likely will have dangerous powers upon arrival, are the East Shores of the USA and the Gulf of Mexico. also the Western Caribbean has way higher danger probabilities than our smooth looking boresomeness promising North-Eastern Caribbean.

let's prepare to have all necessities nearby/handy in case something would pop up to become a danger for our Island,
as such forecasts of course are no kinda holy bible for Islanders,
but the over all look on conditions and by the big guys expected shifts/movements of conditions,
do promise the 2019 season to be more or less a repeat of the 2018 season.

a good example, as actual,
is the Now running Invest 90L.
again we have a super early, before the official season start on june 1st, Tropical System active.
there are hig chances that it will show us Tropical Storm Andrea, again, before June 1st already.
if it reache's the Storm Status, it will be very short lived, a one night stand quicky so to speak,
but it show's the typical constellation of temps and conditions.
the hot zones will be again off the US East Shores and for most part Westand NW of our own Location.
90L is not of interest to us down here, it should move in northern directions and stay out on Open Atlantic Waters,
no danger to any Land form this one, and less any danger to our Paradise Isle.

let's make this the same boring season as last year, very little to write, nothing to really watch,
so we can enjoy a hot beautiful summer in DR.

 

Big

Well-known member
Apr 24, 2019
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I enjoy when the environazi's are wrong, which is most of the time.
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
Interesting map, DR looks pretty safe.

View attachment 3125
Yes,
this Map show's exactly what I said prior to last year's season and exactly the same is the case for this 2019 season.
the hot spots are the East Coast of the US and the Gulf Coast, exactly as last season, while the Caribbean, specially the NE 'ern Caribbean around OUR Soil, is the least endangered area of of the whole Scenarios.
to not get mislead, it would only need One quick forming "weak" Tropical storm coming on land in PC to run Havock on my beloved and today's high populated area here on the East of the Isle, but for the actually running decade(starting 2018) it is much more likely to see 3 "Sandys or Katrinas" each Season than to see one Jeanne per Decade.
such shifts on hot zones is completely normal, the same as it is normal to have cycles of higher active and less active time frames(by hurricane means counted in decades, not just by years). nothing is related to any human produced global warming, aside of the fact that over the billions of years our Globe is always on some thousand of years of a hot azz and then for a while of a cold azz cycle. a few decades with havock running hurricanes and then maybe a couple decades of low storm action is for this Planet absolutely normal. humans are too small and too unimportant for the Globe to have a significant effect on it, other than destroying the for humans neccessary resources, which any other species can continue to live without.
we only have records about Hurricanes and Tropical Storms since mid 19th Century, and most of those records are from before the satelite age, so half of teh back in the day storms happened somewhere but nobody wrote home about.
the time frame, since we keep records about those storm activities, is just an eyeblink within one specific cycle of the Planet's long running climatological cycles.
we still do not have the slightest idea if we are the last 100 years on a hot cycle near it's top end and soon calming down within the next 100 years to calmer seasons, or if we are near the calm side of possibilities on a cycle which will raise the bar from next year on for the next couple hundred years towards storm powers and quantities nobody today could imagine.

for this year all looks fine, at least the chance on a fine summer with a short lived hot time frame for storm hits around our soil/from the East are high to stay calm.
as far as the Eastern Atlantic Ends(USA and Gulf of Mexico) goes, the 2019 Season already started and conditions for brewing storms are almost ready to go.
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
Thanks for the update Mike. I appreciate your continued effort
thank you.
i wish i would spend more time on DR1, as i did for a very long time,
but luckily business grew over the last couple decades nicely and take's up much more time than before.
on the other hand, my "calm down cycle" is almost in vicinity, changes on the daily "high activity hours" are very close to become smoother seasons for hopefully many more decades to come.
the plan is to grow business again this summer, so all that stuff will be impossible to do myself, means the next generation of online hurricanes has to start to move their as.'s and The Fisherman will have much more time at hand for
Fishing and telling those fishy stories on DR1, lol.
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
and here we see pre season subtropical storm Andrea.
nothing to loose time abut, this is just for info.

like last year, we have had already the first named Storm Andrea way before June 1st up north of the Bahamas and this Invest now in the Gulf of Mexico. those 2 areas, the Gulf and the Eastshores of the USA are this year like they been last year, the hot zones.
for our Tropical Highway East of the Caribbean the conditions look fairly smooth, we can await a similar season to last season.
BUT,
nobody should ever let their guards down and not prepare/prepare less for the season, as even during the slowest smoothest Season it needs only one Tropical Storm at the wrong time at the wrong place to become a devastating/deadly event of the Decade.
early action with favorable conditions West of our Isle implicate highest dangers and activities for the Gul and the Eastshores up north, they also "promise" smooth sailing for the DR.
 

NanSanPedro

Well-known member
Apr 12, 2019
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like last year, we have had already the first named Storm Andrea way before June 1st up north of the Bahamas and this Invest now in the Gulf of Mexico. those 2 areas, the Gulf and the Eastshores of the USA are this year like they been last year, the hot zones.
for our Tropical Highway East of the Caribbean the conditions look fairly smooth, we can await a similar season to last season.
BUT,
nobody should ever let their guards down and not prepare/prepare less for the season, as even during the slowest smoothest Season it needs only one Tropical Storm at the wrong time at the wrong place to become a devastating/deadly event of the Decade.
early action with favorable conditions West of our Isle implicate highest dangers and activities for the Gul and the Eastshores up north, they also "promise" smooth sailing for the DR.
How do you prepare for the season? Do you ever do things differently?
 

MikeFisher

Well-known member
How do you prepare for the season? Do you ever do things differently?
the basics are, to have everything ready which would be needed to get a home/house set up for a Storm Hit, because at the moment a Storm is announced/shown to come close or hit you would only have a couple days or even just some hours before the event starts, and of course everybody then storms the shops and supermarkets to get all that stuff, too, becasue most people are ill to none prepared.
 

drstock

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Oct 29, 2010
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Cabarete
the basics are, to have everything ready which would be needed to get a home/house set up for a Storm Hit, because at the moment a Storm is announced/shown to come close or hit you would only have a couple days or even just some hours before the event starts, and of course everybody then storms the shops and supermarkets to get all that stuff, too, becasue most people are ill to none prepared.
But don't panic too much, because there was no rush on supermarkets during the last couple of hurricane near misses.
 

TropicalPaul

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2013
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One piece of advice is that if you're thinking of getting home insurance, do it now while things are quiet. The minute that there is a hurricane risk, all the insurance companies stop selling policies to new customers.
 

chico bill

Lobotomy Surgeon
May 6, 2016
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Hurricanes for 2019

The names are out for the potential storms for this hurricane season, and they are:

Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erín, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Néstor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van y Wendy.

I hope Barry doesn't land in the US, since we have seen one Barry do enough destruction there before.

Hurricane Jerry, Nestor & Van - kind of limp names.

Hurricane Wendy - good name for hurricane for sure !